Autumn 2014

I put together a couple of charts that show a few average daily data for Autumn based on the 5 year period 2009-2013. Data is based on the 'IMT' index which MTC uses in the forum's monthly competition. The stations used in the IMT index are all inland stations located in only in central belt of the country - but given their relatively good spread, their combined daily means are fairly good at inferring weather & climate trends on a more national scale.

These charts show the average trend (a small-scale 'singularity') in weather types over the last 5 years during the Autumn period. Not to be used as a forecast by any means (year on year variation will always occur) but might give very very very rough idea as to what to expect in typical modern Irish Autumn


Daily Max/Min temperature trends for the season. Fairy stable up to to first part of October; cooling down significantly during 2nd half.





Pressure, Wind & Rain trends. Atlantic depressions tend to become more vigorous and frequent during the 2nd half of the season. Lengthy dry spells more likely in 1st half.



All data used from:
Met Eireann
ERA Interim
Ogimet

Harry Palmr wrote: »

A storm 10 days away? No one can know, I presume its suposed to be an ex Hurricane. Change 1 parameter by 1% and you'll get a completely different chart for 10 days.

14 You mean ... and yes highly unlikely to happen . Though no doubt it'll be feckin plastered over the papers tomorrow id say.

Saw the first Halloween stuff in a shop yesterday,wont be long until we are into Autumn proper.

Has been appearing on the GFS control run a few times now :cool:

Could indeed be soon entering a period with an increased risk of wet and windy weather, which is perfectly normal for this time of year.

0Z GFS was again showing a strong southerly tracking low in FI.

Iancar29 wrote: »

Has been appearing on the GFS control run a few times now :cool:

Hardly there at all now :: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014101406/gfs-0-264.png?6?6

Or am I on the wrong ensemble ?

Rainfall warning issued at 1600 for western and southern coastal countries valid until Sunday night

Yellow wind warning from met

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

Strong southerly winds will gust over 45 knots this evening (Friday), early tonight and tomorrow (Saturday).
Issued:
Friday 17 October 2014 16:00
Valid:
Friday 17 October 2014 17:00 to Saturday 18 October 2014 23:30

A messy evening out there

The wind is giving my empty wheelie bins a fair auld rattle. They be rockin the side-to-side! - Athlone

Dublin A, Casement and Phoenix Park all 17c at the moment, quite remarkable considering many days in August struggled to reach that in the afternoon!

Forget the "snow this winter" thread - it's still summer!
A 20c in the Dublin area on Bank Holiday Monday? It depends on good sunshine of course. ME predicting 17c but in Fohn conditions you could add a few degrees maybe?
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif?2

The northwest and west will have yet more rain and drizzle during Bank Holiday Monday but the rest of the country will be mainly dry. Winds will back southerly, moderate to fresh and cloud will tend to break in eastern areas as the day goes on. Very mild, highest temperatures 13 to 17 degrees.

winds backing southerly and cloud breaking in eastern areas tomorrow- 16c at the moment, surely a 20c in fohn conditions tomorrow cannot be ruled out!
I love it! Heating still OFF and saving the € !

@ MAQ, noticed a little kink in the flow on the GFS but didn't investigate further

Certainly chance of some very strong winds for the east coast even without look at this at higher res.

maquiladora wrote: »

Hey now, what's this at 72 hours on the ECM?

Actually puts a small patch 50-60 knot mean winds in the Irish Sea!