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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020
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Possible to get some heavy thundery showers tomorrow more so in the Northern half of the country . Parameters not too good but the moisture is there with diurnal heating , low level convergence and cold temperatures aloft might produce some sporadic lightning in the afternoon. Quite marginal again.
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Which radar site where you using? Netweather is very often horrifically inaccurate. Met Eireann is the best, IMO. UK met office is not too bad either.Just looking back at the radar sequence, and apparently I have been under a deluge over the last couple of hours, yet not one single drop of rain has fallen.
Sunny, bright 'n' breezy all day.0 -
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Shower formation increasing in the afternoon with diurnal heating , paramaters not ideal for clouds becoming electrified but if they did it would mainly be in the N and E I think.
I would hazard a guess and say if sferics show up it would be mainly in the highlighted circle. Looking on the wrong side of marginal though.
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ECM I reckon ( amateur, but trying !! ) showing the parameters for widespread convective showers, some locally heavy and prolonged and a fair chance of thunderstorms on Monday. A longwave trough approaches from the NW in an increasingly unstable airflow with good low level and deep layer shear and increasing cold air aloft. A day for possibly spotting funnels given the level of shear and vorticity in the atmosphere and the strength of the sun at this time of the year. Looks fairly countrywide too.
Worth keeping an eye on perhaps.
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Monday could be lively. A far cry from the recent quite weather. Should get reports of some locally heavy downpours.
ECM now forecasting colder air aloft coinciding with peak diurnal heating , trough crossing the country , fresh blustery day with good amounts of low level shear and quite a bit of deep layer shear. Thinking thunderstorms could happen just about anywhere but maybe best in the Northern half of the country where the colder upper air could produce steeper lapse rates. Storms could be big enough to carry on for some distance with heavy rain and hail. Convective gusts locally.
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Plenty of big convective showers tomorrow , quite a blustery day especially in some of those big showers. Hail possible and would expect a sizeable drop in temperature in the showers. Parameters good for thunderstorms with plenty of DLS and LLS, CAPE from 200 J/Kg into the 500 J/Kg in parts, more so in the Northern half of the country all lining up with peak diurnal heating. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a funnel spotted also, plenty of vorticity in the atmosphere over Ireland tomorrow.
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Thinking that as convection matures whilst crossing the country in the afternoon there could be widespread thunderstorms in the area highlighted , from about 2 to 7 perhaps , starting in the midlands and possible getting stronger as it heads E.
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