Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

Looks like most of the lightning activity stayed off the coast. Models correctly showed very heavy rain for Northern counties, looks like plenty in the SE also and high ground over S Kerry and W cork.



12hr rainfall radar totals

Netweather

Interesting set up all right on Fri. Front crossing the country during peak diurnal heating, moving into warmer air mass the more East it goes but will it be weakening as it reaches th E.
LLS and DLS good, lapse rates OK, should be a notable convergence along the E between land and Sea. One to keep an eye on to see if further potential there.

A small bit of potential for sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity tomorrow if probably somewhat brief. Would think the best chance being in around the midlands during the morning, maybe touching the E and the NE in the afternoon as the front crosses the country. Lot of Deep layer shear available and Low level Shear, Lapse rates improve during the day ( possibly best in the NE later in the afternoon ). MUCAPE low, only a couple of hundred J/kg at best it would seem but if there was enough of the front left by the time it reached the midlands and East as the Temperature increases around midday then a few convective showers could form and might get the odd rumble. No big deal really just out of interest to see if the set up could produce some active convection but living off of scraps :pac:

Surface temperatures not great tomorrow and Dp's about 11C or 12C at best and cloud cover may inhibit heating and lift but good levels of DLS and increasing cold uppers spreading in over the country associated with the trough look to produce heavy widespread convective showers across the country, heaviest rain in the W and NW where showers might merge into longer spells of rain. Could have some sporadic isolated thunderstorms also. Bit of a difference in the models, AROME interestingly keeping the heavy showers going well into the evening with decent CAPE values, will see if that translates into thunderstorms.








ECMWF sounding for near Carrick on Shannon.