Looking Wintry from November 18th

JanuarySnowstor · 14-11-2013 7:46pm #1

Well folks, tonights models suggest here we go again:D

Next week firming up to be very cold and frosty with every chance of some of the white stuff

Remarkable that height rises to our North look like happening yet again this Winter!!

Lucreto · 14-11-2013 7:56pm

Back on the good ol rollercoaster for another Winter.

Going up :pac:

Do we really need a thread at this stage? So far it will be frost not a slight risk of extreme event.

mike65 · 14-11-2013 8:53pm

3 fecking degrees - feck off!

Birdnuts · 14-11-2013 9:31pm

If your a snow bunny tonights ECM is pure bunny porn. If it came off it would have the makings of a December 2010 type event!!

JanuarySnowstor · 15-11-2013 11:32am

06Z firms up on a very cold blast next week
Things look drier than last night but still a remarkable change from what we have had with severe frosts lingering through the day
Easterly's in November and nobody on here!!
My word how we are spolit of late, this isn't far off another epic!!

Also worth keeping in mind that deep cold air getting into the ground so early will really help the rest of Winter
For example in 2010 the ground was quite often freezing up with a temp of 3 or 4C.

starskey77 · 15-11-2013 1:42pm

how long cold spell lasting

pauldry · 15-11-2013 2:41pm

2 days

No very cold for two days windchill wise with sleet

Then frosty and 5c for about 5 days

High is trying to settle north of Ireland meaning easterlies

Wheres deep easterly gone anyways

JanuarySnowstor · 15-11-2013 5:13pm

The 12z gfs is not good tonight with the high pressure much closer to us. Still cold and frosty.
Let's hope its just a wobble

Irish Steve · 16-11-2013 1:59am

Sky news is splashing the Daily Express warnings of up to 6" of snow in parts of the UK next week.

We all know that paper never refuses Ink, especially where the Express and bad weather are concerned, but there has to be some credibility in these reports, and Sky are certainly starting to ramp the "cold" word in just about every forecast.

Maybe I need to get my local weather station up again so that I can see exactly what's happening, rather than relying on external sources. I reckon that MT's forecast is going to see an upsurge in readership in the next few days. it's one of the few accurate sources that are readily available.

Could be interesting!

gaius c · 16-11-2013 6:11am

Just realised that it was getting to that time of year again…for frequenting the weather forum on boards and joining the hordes looking for some snow affirmation!

Frank Garrett · 16-11-2013 7:33am

gaius c wrote: »

Just realised that it was getting to that time of year again…for frequenting the weather forum on boards and joining the hordes looking for some snow affirmation!

Ah, yes, the hordes who visit the weather forum once a year searching for white gold.

C.U.N.T.S. as I like to call them: chaps unanimously navigating threads seasonally.

torres9kop · 16-11-2013 7:38am

Frank Garrett wrote: »

Ah, yes, the hordes who visit the weather forum once a year searching for white gold.

C.U.N.T.S. as I like to call them: chaps unanimously navigating threads seasonally.

Lol. Very good. Im a C.U.N.T so ðŸ˜€

Tindie · 16-11-2013 12:27pm

So anyone know what weather going to be like next weekend?

I know the cold snap is going last about 2-3 days in the week but heard it's could be back by next weekend only for centrel and southern and central England.

25th nov would be perfect for it to snow, that Xmas tree going up

Gonzo · 16-11-2013 12:53pm

next weekend looks similar to today with slightly lower temperatures. The cold next week is much downgraded for all parts including the UK

derekon · 16-11-2013 12:56pm

Gonzo wrote: »

next weekend looks similar to today with slightly lower temperatures. The cold next week is much downgraded for all parts including the UK

In full agreement with you there Gonzo - winter does not officially commence until 15 days time. So I think the fact that the raging Atlantic will be cut off for a few days next week is certainly not a negative for those wishing for a blocked winter with snow. We have plenty of time folks - the starting bell has not even been rung yet

D

Harps · 16-11-2013 1:35pm

Gonzo wrote: »

next weekend looks similar to today with slightly lower temperatures. The cold next week is much downgraded for all parts including the UK

Highs today in Ireland are around 12C with lows tonight around 5C. For the next week, high look like being as low as 4-6C in places with a hard frost every night. While there has been a downgrade in the severity of cold its still much the same forecast with a cool down and the first real taste of wintry weather

mike65 · 16-11-2013 1:42pm

High pressure ahoy! Looks like settling like a chilly rug over Ireland/Britain for a while.

Gonzo · 16-11-2013 2:41pm

since the early 80s there are only 2 instances of measureable snow that I can remember before the build-up to Christmas so even in the good old days, measureable snow before christmas is a rare event in Ireland, 2010 being obviously the one incident that sticks out since Ive been born. I have plenty of memories tho of the first measureable snow events starting right after Christmas day, often between St.Stephens day and New Years day! i really wouldnt be worrying about next week's downgrade, this winter seems to be a slow developer anyway right across the board even into western Russia there has been very little action as of yet.

JanuarySnowstor · 16-11-2013 2:58pm

I would agree on historical stuff Gonzo, in my memory 2010 was the exception going back over 30 years
If we do get a cold Winter this year (and imo the signs are that we will) scientists will have to sit up and take note as it will undoubtedly be a new trend.
As ever time will tell but looking good

Next week looking much drier than it did a few days ago but still some decent night frosts around. Still time for upgrades and I expect models to back track a bit now to what was originally being projected earlier in the week

Tuesday morning is woth keeping an eye on, a bit of the white stuff looks possible for the North & West
& Cork :-)

mike65 · 16-11-2013 3:35pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I would agree on historical stuff Gonzo, in my memory 2010 was the exception going back over 30 years
If we do get a cold Winter this year (and imo the signs are that we will) scientists will have to sit up and take note as it will undoubtedly be a new trend.
As ever time will tell but looking good

Next week looking much drier than it did a few days ago but still some decent night frosts around. Still time for upgrades and I expect models to back track a bit now to what was originally being projected earlier in the week

Tuesday morning is woth keeping an eye on, a bit of the white stuff looks possible for the North & West
& Cork :-)

How on earth did you extrapolate that?

Oneiric 3 · 16-11-2013 3:38pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

the signs are that we will

What signs though? Surely those signals (whatever they may be) show up in some form or other every year at this time of year and throughout each winter?

maquiladora · 16-11-2013 4:42pm

Yes, apart from 2010 you have to go back a long way to find significant snowfall events in Ireland that happened before Christmas. I can only find two :

19-20 Nov 1807.
15-25 Dec 1909.

derekon · 16-11-2013 4:56pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, apart from 2010 you have to go back a long way to find significant snowfall events in Ireland that happened before Christmas. I can only find two :

19-20 Nov 1807.
15-25 Dec 1909.

So every 100 years so ?

- 1807, 1909, 2010

D

Elmer Blooker · 16-11-2013 5:47pm

the mean temp at the Phoenix Park in December 1878 was -0.1c , I presume there was a long period of lying snow that month to record a mean that low, it must have been very similar to Dec '10 ?

ninebeanrows · 16-11-2013 5:57pm

Quite the difference between the UKM and GFS!!

Did not expect to see this on the UKM after viewing the GFS!

UW120-21.GIF?16-17

JanuarySnowstor · 16-11-2013 6:28pm

Yeah the ukmo is back where it was a couple of days ago. We have seen many a time where the models pick up a cold spell drop it and then pick it up again closer to the time.
If the ukmo were even close to the mark it would be ectraordinary for so early in winter

Eyes down for the ecm

maquiladora · 16-11-2013 9:27pm

derekon wrote: »

So every 100 years so ? - 1807, 1909, 2010

D

It shows are rare they are. Once you get from late Dec into Jan then that all changes.

JanuarySnowstor · 17-11-2013 3:22pm

Tuesday morning looks very interesting as a spell of sleet and snow mover down over Western areas. Elevation should mean a bit of the white stuff lying about first thing.......
Overall remaining cold or very cold through out next week with frost slow to clear.
Where we go after that is anyones guess, as ever more runs needed

Geomy · 19-11-2013 8:25am

I heard it was snowing in Athlone last night.
Anywhere else ?

stampydmonkey · 19-11-2013 8:27am

Geomy wrote: »

I heard it was snowing in Athlone last night.
Anywhere else ?

Apparently galway city too for a very short whie

J Cheever Loophole · 19-11-2013 9:00am

Geomy wrote: »

I heard it was snowing in Athlone last night.
Anywhere else ?

Couple of centimetres of snow covering the ground in Armagh City this morning.

highdef · 19-11-2013 9:19am

This was at home in North Kildare last night. It stuck very readily on the adjacent hill which peaks at approx 60 metres higher than the location of the video.

19-11-2013 9:22am

Bit of snow overnight in Dundalk.

average_runner · 19-11-2013 9:52am

Deleted User wrote: »

Bit of snow overnight in Dundalk.

Had a shower in Lucan last night also, around 1.30 am

davidsr20 · 19-11-2013 10:45am

It's snowing in Athlone again I heard.

stylie · 19-11-2013 11:29am

Some snow/sleet on the cars around Saggart and City West this morning.

DellyBelly · 19-11-2013 11:33am

Slight snowfall here about an hour ago. Stopped now though thankfully

Macy0161 · 19-11-2013 1:00pm

Woke up to snow on the cars and grass in Roundwood.

19-11-2013 2:25pm

Macy0161 wrote: »

Woke up to snow on the cars and grass in Roundwood.

Just a dusting or is there much?

Macy0161 · 19-11-2013 3:08pm

Dónal wrote: »

Just a dusting or is there much?

Just a dusting. I'm in town in work now, but wouldn't imagine it lasting once the sun came up. Wasn't sticking on the tarmac - cars, decking, grass was all really at our level anyway. Enough to write username and date, if I'd thought of it at 7am!

Wasn't expecting it, as everything I read suggested the showers wouldn't make it as far as us.

hatrickpatrick · 20-11-2013 12:29am

Just wondering, scientifically speaking what caused the unusual weather in 2010? What happened in the atmosphere that wouldn't usually happen?

starskey77 · 20-11-2013 10:13am

my barometer was dropping this mourning thats wet and cold right
sorry im a novice

Frank Garrett · 20-11-2013 10:29am

starskey77 wrote: »

my barometer was dropping this mourning thats wet and cold right
sorry im a novice

The barometer measures atmospheric pressure.

starskey77 · 22-11-2013 9:54am

i work outdoors its nice this spell of weather invigorating

hatrickpatrick · 22-11-2013 5:03pm

Obviously FI, but this is the kind of thing which (ironically) gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling this time of year

EDIT: Newbish question, but if we're looking for the temperature near the ground which will be the temperature we actually experience, is the 850hpa chart the one to be looking at?

gfs-1-312.png?6

compsys · 22-11-2013 5:24pm

It depends on the time of year (and therefore the strength of the sun).

In general an 850 upper temp of -8 in winter would be around 1 degree at ground level.

The closer you get to spring the warmer it gets. A -8 upper on a fine sunny day in early March for example would be around 3 or 4 degrees.

hatrickpatrick · 22-11-2013 9:05pm

compsys wrote: »

It depends on the time of year (and therefore the strength of the sun).

In general an 850 upper temp of -8 in winter would be around 1 degree at ground level.

The closer you get to spring the warmer it gets. A -8 upper on a fine sunny day in early March for example would be around 3 or 4 degrees.

Right, but when you look at say Met.ie and they give you a temperature forecast, which temperature chart on meteociel would be the closest thing to it?

For instance, based on what you're saying, an 850hpa temp wouldn't result in a cold enough ground temperature for the snow to actually stick, right?

These are the different charts one can look at:

[ z500-PRMSL ]- [ Temp. 850hPa ]- [ Précipitations ] - [ Résumé ] - [ Jet Stream ]- [ Altitude 1.5PVU ]- [ Iso0°c et z500/1000 ]
[ ThetaE 850hPa ] - [ SBCAPE et LI ] - [ Temp. 2m ] - [ Temp. 10hPa stratosphère ] - [ Anomalie z500 ] - [ Temp 500hPa ] NEW!
- [ Archives ] - [ Carte Hémi. Nord ]

Based on that list, which one do I want to be checking in order to see temperature that would be relevant to whether or not any potential snow would actually be able to remain on the ground for long?

rickdangerouss · 22-11-2013 9:27pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Right, but when you look at say Met.ie and they give you a temperature forecast, which temperature chart on meteociel would be the closest thing to it?

For instance, based on what you're saying, an 850hpa temp wouldn't result in a cold enough ground temperature for the snow to actually stick, right?

These are the different charts one can look at:

[ z500-PRMSL ]- [ Temp. 850hPa ]- [ Précipitations ] - [ Résumé ] - [ Jet Stream ]- [ Altitude 1.5PVU ]- [ Iso0°c et z500/1000 ]
[ ThetaE 850hPa ] - [ SBCAPE et LI ] - [ Temp. 2m ] - [ Temp. 10hPa stratosphère ] - [ Anomalie z500 ] - [ Temp 500hPa ] NEW!
- [ Archives ] - [ Carte Hémi. Nord ]

Based on that list, which one do I want to be checking in order to see temperature that would be relevant to whether or not any potential snow would actually be able to remain on the ground for long?

That would be [ Temp. 2m ]

Harps · 22-11-2013 9:45pm

Iso0Cz500/1000 is another useful one, it gives the height of the 0C isotherm in metres, if its within 500m or so above ground then you'd have a chance of snow surviving the fall. The colours are the thickness of the atmosphere between 1000 and 500hPa in decametres, 528dm (5280 metres) is usually seen as the maximum for snow to fall, the lower the better

hatrickpatrick · 22-11-2013 10:11pm

Right will add those two to my regular Meteociel browsing, thanks

FI isn't looking nearly as sweet as it was, unsurprisingly... The further you go in terms of hours, the more the Atlantic seems to dominate

So basically starting to resemble the charts from this time last year, iirc.

Looking Wintry from November 18th

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