Turning colder?.....

darkman2 · 12-10-2010 8:51am #1

....with frost and maybe even wintry showers aswell for a while next week. A good start for snow junkies if this is the start of a below average period for temperatures. Looks like a sharp Northerly may occur next week. ECM and GFS seem to agree somewhat and the UKMO is trending that direction.

The low pressure to the Northwest or just South of Greenland looks like a "tigger" low with cold air tucked in behind. Greenland high pressure set to make it's return.:)

So maybe a bit of a shock to the system on the way.

Su Campu · 12-10-2010 9:10am

Yes, there is a chance that things could turn out pretty nippy in about a week's time as a mid-upper trough sets up around the Canadian maritimes, pumping high geopotentials towards Greenland and feeding the High up there. That would mean a northerly-northwesterly flow downstream in our vicinity, but whether it will be cold enough is the big question. A small shift of the High one way or the other could eliminate the risk altogether, but one to watch. There is some nice cold already building in the Arctic just itching to head south for the winter!

maquiladora · 12-10-2010 9:18am

I know its FI but...

Look at the 528.

Could be an early wintry blast alright! Still in FI though so not holding my breath...

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 10:17am

Chilly enough this morning across some parts

9am Met reports:
2c at Shannon with fog
3c at Claremorris with 'N/A' :rolleyes:
5c at both Valentia and Ballyhaise. Fine/Fog

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

5.8c here at the moment with thick fog at 10.16am.

Edit: 3c at both Shannon Apt and Claremorris on the 10am reports:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Edit Edit: 4c at Claremorris on the 11am reports, and 5c at Shannon Apt:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Not unusual in itself but in stark contrast to other station readings. 15c at Belmullet! 13c at Mace Head. Midland stations around 10c and 12c at both Dublin Apt and Casement.

6.4c in Tuam at the moment, with fog thickening up a little after earlier thinning.

maquiladora · 12-10-2010 11:41am

06Z GFS FI still showing that 2/3 days wintry blast which if it came off would probably bring us some October snow.

Long way off though but exciting to see stuff like this on the charts already.

skipz · 12-10-2010 11:46am

Would this October snow be a mainly higher ground situation?

maquiladora · 12-10-2010 11:47am

lol

Lumi · 12-10-2010 11:51am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

6.4c in Tuam at the moment, with fog thickening up a little after earlier thinning.

Much the same in Galway. The fog has yet to clear and temp 6.4C.

WolfeIRE · 12-10-2010 11:57am

:pac:

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 12:00pm

This was the set up that brought some late October snowfall over part of Norn Iron and the north Midlands in 2008 when a low bearing down from the NW came in contact with some cold 850's over Ireland:

Image source: http://en.vedur.is/

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 12:18pm

if cold air will be streaming down from the north- northwest by that stage, perhaps a polar low could be in the offing?

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 12:18pm

Fionagus wrote: »

Much the same in Galway. The fog has yet to clear and temp 6.4C.

still quite foggy here also.

ninebeanrows · 12-10-2010 12:54pm

And the winter of 10/11 started after a remarkably warm start to October by mid-month a Northerly blast covered the country with widespread wintry showers. Unbeknownst to the the people of Ireland & Britain was that winter 10/11 had now arrived and temperatures would not rise to double figures until early March 2011 in a winter the coldest in the region since medieval records.:D

WolfeIRE · 12-10-2010 12:56pm

:D:D

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 2:48pm

here is my ramp:

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 5:58pm

Try as I might, I found it a real stuggle to find anything remotely interesting on the 12z GFS run tonight. Still showing the cool down but that's about it.

WolfeIRE · 12-10-2010 6:00pm

our time will come Deep:)

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 6:10pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

our time will come Deep:)

I am sure it will at some stage Wolf. It would seem though that October 2010 is fast going down the pan with regards anything interesting weatherwise. There seems to be no end to these inflated highs hovering in and around Ireland this year and that trend does not look like breaking for another while yet.

Su Campu · 12-10-2010 6:29pm

Here's the multimodel consensus. No snow.

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 6:52pm

ah stop being a spoil sport su campu:p there is no place for realism in this thread:o

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 7:08pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Here's the multimodel consensus. No snow.

No anything as far as I can see.

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 7:27pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No anything as far as I can see.

well the current pattern may not last beyond October if Joe Bastardi's latest video is anything to go by. His video seems to indicate it's going to be a normal winter for us. the cfs charts he showed, suggest the winter months will have temperatures around average or slightly above. of course this doesn't mean we'll have wind storms, but it would surely rule out the Winter months being largely influenced by Polar Continental air masses

Deep Easterly · 12-10-2010 7:39pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well the current pattern may not last beyond October if Joe Bastardi's latest video is anything to go by. His video seems to indicate it's going to be a normal winter for us. the cfs charts he showed, suggest the winter months will have temperatures around average or slightly above. of course this doesn't mean we'll have wind storms, but it would surely rule out the Winter months being largely influenced by Polar Continental air masses

One positive aspect about an 'normal' winter in Ireland is that it can throw anything at us. It is normal to get at least 2 or 3 good windstorms during the winter season. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either in a normal Irish winter, nor can even a brief polar continental surge or 2 - or an Arctic one. In fact, I would much prefer a normal Irish winter than to what we experienced in the last one which was notably cold, but also remarkably hollow as well.

nacho libre · 12-10-2010 7:52pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

One positive aspect about an 'normal' winter in Ireland is that it can throw anything at us. It is normal to get at least 2 or 3 good windstorms during the winter season. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either in a normal Irish winter, nor can even a brief polar continental surge or 2 - or an Arctic one. In fact, I would much prefer a normal Irish winter than to what we experienced in the last one which was notably cold, but also remarkably hollow as well.

oh yeah we could still get snowy and cold periods, but his latest video seems to rule out any sort of sustained cold like we had last winter. it's interesting, considering he is known as a cold ramper, that he is going against the forecasts of others who are of the view it will be a colder than average winter.
personally i would like a polar low - or six!, and some wind storms this winter

maquiladora · 13-10-2010 9:12am

0Z GFS reintroduces a risk of wintry weather for some around the 21st/22nd.

Still over a week away though so there will be changes....

Edit : I meant 0Z of course

Su Campu · 13-10-2010 9:24am

This is the 850hPa temperature difference forecast between now and 180hrs......quite a dip in the space of 8 days eh!

arctictree · 13-10-2010 9:42am

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS reintroduces a risk of wintry weather for some around the 21st/22nd.

Still over a week away though so there will be changes....

We've had snow before on the 21st Oct, so could happen again. Lets see what happens when we get closer to the reliable timeframe.

pauldry · 13-10-2010 9:49am

dont want snow yet. hv 2 do marathon on 25th but looks like 8c at best next week with precipitation:(

Pangea · 13-10-2010 11:08am

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Oct 2010 to Wednesday 10 Nov 2010:
Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

maquiladora · 13-10-2010 11:44am

06Z GFS has the cold upper temps arriving earlier than on the 0Z run.

-5 uppers coming down over us this day next week.

So based on the 06Z GFS, I'd say a risk of sleet/snow showers in parts from Wednesday through to Friday.

Deep Easterly · 13-10-2010 1:26pm

6.9c here in foggy aul shamtown, highest temp of the day so far.

maquiladora · 13-10-2010 1:38pm

850 mean is below the 30 year average from around the 16th onwards and the operational run stays below zero from the 19th until the far reaches of FI.

darkman2 · 13-10-2010 3:33pm

On track for quite a cold period of weather for the second half of October.

I think the most likely outcome is frosty nights and heavy wintry showers. Remember inland convection is still likely this time of year so it's not like a Northerly in the depths of Winter leading to dry conditions inland and with very cold air travelling over a comparatively mild sea some beefy showers are likely. I suspect at low levels it will be rain, hail and sleet with higher ground getting the first snow of the season. Still things could get colder or maybe not quite as cold as is being forecast for the time of year so watch this space!:)

Mars Bar · 13-10-2010 4:12pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

6.9c here in foggy aul shamtown, highest temp of the day so far.

I hope we get decent snow so I can go sledding down the Palace Grounds!

On Monday, we were outside the college with the legs of our trousers pulled up sunbathing, today I would contemplate gloves and a scarf. How does it go from one extreme to the other so quickly!

Not · 13-10-2010 5:32pm

mars bar wrote: »

I hope we get decent snow so I can go sledding down the Palace Grounds!

On Monday, we were outside the college with the legs of our trousers pulled up sunbathing, today I would contemplate gloves and a scarf. How does it go from one extreme to the other so quickly!

Yep, I thought we were supposted to be in an Indian Summer this week, but it was definitely winter woolies weather in Meath at lunchtime. Almost like a freezing fog (except it obviously wasn't quite that cold)

nacho libre · 13-10-2010 5:35pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8061737/Snow-to-hit-Britain.html

Not · 13-10-2010 5:40pm

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8061737/Snow-to-hit-Britain.html

-20C :eek:

Lumi · 13-10-2010 5:49pm

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8061737/Snow-to-hit-Britain.html

:D:D Thanks Nacho!!!
The perfect winter scenario

Looks like the London boroughs are also preparing for a 'white-out' winter so it MUST be true;)

carlmwan · 13-10-2010 6:29pm

ye its a cooler than the last few days but there is no chance of snow :mad:

Deep Easterly · 13-10-2010 6:50pm

Latest UKMO 144hrs chart keeping up the theme of the autumnal chill setting in:

A set up like that could bring quite thundery conditions at times to exposed coastal locations of the NW/N/NE.

Ilyushin76 · 13-10-2010 7:06pm

Looking good

.Hopefully this winter will be colder than last years

Su Campu · 13-10-2010 7:36pm

I'm not convinced that come next week we'll have the setup the charts are painting now, but I hope I'm wrong. We need a retrogressive pattern to make anything out of that northerly, or else it's just going to slide on by us to the east.

We need it though, as sea surface temperatures in the higher latitudes are way above normal. A sustained northerly outbreak will help get us back to an even playing field before the start of winter proper.

nacho libre · 13-10-2010 8:02pm

so bascially what your saying is if the sea surface temperatures don't cool down soon, we'll likely lose out in any marginal situations this winter, and cold airmasses from the north and northwest over Ireland maybe be modified quicker as well??

Su Campu · 13-10-2010 8:36pm

nacho libre wrote: »

so bascially what your saying is if the sea surface temperatures don't cool down soon, we'll likely lose out in any marginal situations this winter, and cold airmasses from the north and northwest over Ireland maybe be modified quicker as well??

Well warmer sea temperatures won't help, put it that way, except maybe in the formation of polar lows. All too many times were conditions on the wrong side of marginal last winter, so we'll need all the help we can get. Cold seas extending further south will reduce the chance of arctic airmasses modifying before reaching us.

But it's very early days yet, so nothing to worry about, but the earlier those seas cool, the colder they can get before the end of the winter. But this time last year it was the reverse - cold around Greenland and fairly normal to slightly above to our north. We're starting off at a disadvantage this year, so we've a lot of ground to make up.

Deep Easterly · 13-10-2010 10:10pm

On the plus side, warmer seas to our north this winter would prove to be very helpful in increasing instability substantially which in turn increases the chance of stronger and more volitile polar troughing, which Su has already alluded too. I think the problem last year is that because sea temps were relatively low, there was very little instability created when arctic airmasses plunged down. Of course, some coastal areas did fairly well, but it is astonishing that during one of the coldest winters in living memory, coupled with below average MSLP values for much of the winter, that very little snow fell over the country as a whole; and may I add, very little weather in general.

Warmer than average sea temps would increase the chance of big weather developing. Last winter taught me a good lesson, in that cold winters are not necessarily interesting one's weatherwise. I know most posters on here are snow hunters, so am I, but at this stage, all I want to see is some proper big weather.

maquiladora · 13-10-2010 11:49pm

18Z GFS has a more potent northerly again.

pauldry · 14-10-2010 1:20am

Apart from showery weather from the N and W in the coming weeks I dont see any big weather for the rest of October. Roll on November

Deep Easterly · 14-10-2010 10:05am

ECM not so keen to strengthen the northerly flow in its 00z run. Brief flirt with cold uppers over the north of Ireland but coincides with intensifying surface divergence which would kill off any chance of major shower development:

144hrs:

168hrs:

UKMO 00z run agrees.

144hrs chart:

Exciting stuff..

WolfeIRE · 14-10-2010 10:53am

maquiladora · 14-10-2010 11:32am

No major change on the 06Z GFS from the 0Z for the potential wintry snap next week.

And just for the laugh (take a major pinch of salt with this kind of chart) :

Aiel · 14-10-2010 4:14pm

Im doing the Dublin City Marathon on Oct 25th.Accuweather on its 15 day forecast says it will be dry and cloudy with temp ranges from 12-8c,sounds ideal for a marathon.How "accurate" is accuweather for these 15day ones?

Turning colder?.....

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