Northern Hemisphere Ice and Snow Advance 2019/20

Kermit.de.frog · 13-09-2019 3:27pm #1

It's that time of year again...

In the last week the annual fall in sea ice has been plateauing and the ice will soon start it's advance again for this coming winter and will continue to do so right through until around the end March.

Let's keep tabs here. :cool:

Oneiric 3 · 13-09-2019 7:55pm

A little surprised that melt is easing off a little considering the unprecedented warmth (for the time of year) going on up the Arctic at the moment.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2019 11:22am

It looks like this year's extent will bottom out about the same as 2007, the first year we heard the alarm bells being rung about ice-free Septembers within a decade or two. In actual fact, the trend in annual minima since then has been practically flat. That's 13 years (the latest one third) of the total satellite era with a flat trend. The annual MAXima, however, do show a decreasing trend.

Data from here. The 2019 minimum was taken as 4.238 million for now, which is probably the lowest it will get to, give or take.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2019 11:47am

Just for completeness, here are the past four 10-year trends, starting at 1980. The greatest rate of decrease was 2000-09, but the most recent dedcade has actually shown a slight upward trend.

Oneiric 3 · 15-09-2019 6:39pm

As I said, all this is surprising given that Arctic temps (North of the 60th) are at their warmest for this period in the Climate Reanalyser record at least. This chart shows the temperature anomaly in this region for the first half of September going back to 1979 up to the present:

I'll have a look at the DMI database later if I can be arsed to see how temperatures within the 80th are doing. Perhaps they are cooler within this smaller region when compared other years that is allowing ice melt to be relatively tame this time around.

Edit: NOAA reanalysis of September SST temp anomalies in the Arctic (C/O C.R) for between 1854 and 2018. September this year is already continuing this more recent trend.

Oneiric 3 · 16-09-2019 2:13pm

Had a quick look at the DMI daily Arctic temp (N of 80 Deg) set for this period of the year - 1st to 15th Sept, which I think tends to be when the ice melt has reached its peak, and while we are once again seeing very high temps up there for the period, they are not without precedent.

Top 5 warmest first half of Septembers up there since 1958. Anomaly figure are from the 1981-2010 average, and not the more nontraditional and to be frank, quite odd 1979-2000 bench which C.R/NOAA seems to favour.

Year Temp Anom
1991 -1.96 2.83
2012 -2.26 2.53
1984 -2.37 2.42
2019 -2.86 1.93
1972 -2.95 1.84

This year's actual mean temp for this period up there is standing at -2.86c, ranking it the 4th highest in this longer term data set. 1987 saw the coldest temps up there in this part of the year, with a mean temp of -8.02c.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-09-2019 7:57pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Had a quick look at the DMI daily Arctic temp (N of 80 Deg) set for this period of the year - 1st to 15th Sept, which I think tends to be when the ice melt has reached its peak, and while we are once again seeing very high temps up there for the period, they are not without precedent.

Top 5 warmest first half of Septembers up there since 1958. Anomaly figure are from the 1981-2010 average, and not the more nontraditional and to be frank, quite odd 1979-2000 bench which C.R/NOAA seems to favour.

Year Temp Anom
1991 -1.96 2.83
2012 -2.26 2.53
1984 -2.37 2.42
2019 -2.86 1.93
1972 -2.95 1.84

This year's actual mean temp for this period up there is standing at -2.86c, ranking it the 4th highest in this longer term data set. 1987 saw the coldest temps up there in this part of the year, with a mean temp of -8.02c.

It could be down to the actual regions that are above average and how large an ice pack they enclose. A small ice area being very warm will affect the average temperature but not so much the overall total ice.

For example, the latest anomalies for the second half of August below shows the main warm anomalies over land. September may have continued on this pattern.

Danno · 17-09-2019 8:58pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Had a quick look at the DMI daily Arctic temp (N of 80 Deg) set for this period of the year - 1st to 15th Sept, which I think tends to be when the ice melt has reached its peak, and while we are once again seeing very high temps up there for the period, they are not without precedent.

Top 5 warmest first half of Septembers up there since 1958. Anomaly figure are from the 1981-2010 average, and not the more nontraditional and to be frank, quite odd 1979-2000 bench which C.R/NOAA seems to favour.

Year Temp Anom
1991 -1.96 2.83
2012 -2.26 2.53
1984 -2.37 2.42
2019 -2.86 1.93
1972 -2.95 1.84

This year's actual mean temp for this period up there is standing at -2.86c, ranking it the 4th highest in this longer term data set. 1987 saw the coldest temps up there in this part of the year, with a mean temp of -8.02c.

Interesting. 1984 was the second lowest of the 1980s for ice extent with 6.74 million square kilometres. 1985 was the lowest with 6.71m

1991 meanwhile equaled 1998 with 6.43m whilst 1990 (6.07m); 1993 (6.20m); 1995 (6.06m) and 1999 (5.84m) were all lower. Source: JAXA.

I don't think there is a strong link between ice and temperature anomaly.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-09-2019 9:22pm

My second favourite thread of the year !

Oneiric 3 · 22-09-2019 11:13pm

CR/NOAA Arctic anomaly for Sept (1st-22nd) now down to 2nd place (behind 2016) in its records since 1979 but could rise back into 1st place again this week as temps likely remain in and around 2.0c above the average for a good while yet.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-09-2019 6:56am

Sea ice formation and snow cover will be taking off witnin the next week across Siberia.

gfsnh-1-114.png?0

Gaoth Laidir · 27-09-2019 9:09pm

The minimum extent bottomed out at 4.15 million on September 18th, the 2nd lowest in the satellite era. With that figure now in the graph for the past 10 years the trend is practically flat, if not slightly rising at 0.08 per decade.

September's monthly volume is not in yet, but taking the August figures the past decade, the trend is slightly downward at 0.16 per decade, 34 times less than the 2000-09 trend of 5.66 per decade.

At the risk of getting more abuse, I think it's safe to say that for now at least, the runaway loss has leveled off.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-09-2019 11:56pm

5-yr running means

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 5:48pm

Is it possible to get hold of that data? Might be interesting to compare and contrast with the actual running temperatures up there to see if there is a strong correlation (or not) between both.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 6:26pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Is it possible to get hold of that data? Might be interesting to compare and contrast with the actual running temperatures up there to see if there is a strong correlation (or not) between both.

All data are in Excel files here

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 10:05pm

Cheers mon!

Kermit.de.frog · 18-10-2019 3:28am

The cross Arctic channel for shipping closed in with the ice pack yesterday approaching the Laptev Sea. A real pace now to the increase in the sea ice.

Not long now fella

Gaoth Laidir · 19-10-2019 8:42pm

Arctic sea ice volume charts now updated with the September (annual minimum) figures. Flat trend over the past decade, the most prolonged of the satellite era, but you won't read that anywhere.

pauldry · 20-10-2019 9:55pm

Yes but its lowest JAXA on record currently by over 300k. Id say the reason its stayed flat in the past decade has been that a lot of the final multi year ice has been thinning. It will be interesting to see if it flatlines in the following decade. I severely doubt it and it will probably settle in the 3s in that decade

Gaoth Laidir · 20-10-2019 10:33pm

pauldry wrote: »

Yes but its lowest JAXA on record currently by over 300k. Id say the reason its stayed flat in the past decade has been that a lot of the final multi year ice has been thinning. It will be interesting to see if it flatlines in the following decade. I severely doubt it and it will probably settle in the 3s in that decade

Thinning would be accounted for in the volume figures. It remains to be seen what happens next.

On another note, the total annual Greenland melt area has shown a similar hiatus, with in fact a notable decrease in melt area over the past decade. Figures from here.

wing52 · 20-10-2019 10:58pm

Where is the "heat energy " going to then if the sea ice is stabilised? Is that why we ( in ireland anyway) are getting mildish winters, because of the gulf stream holding more of its "heat"? Do you think the polar vortex is getting more stable as well at this time of the year on a decade by decade timeframe?

pauldry · 20-10-2019 11:34pm

I think its rubbish to suggest the Arctic is stable. There are scarier facts behind the figures. As I said the Jaxa extent is the lowest on record and in many months over the past 5 years it has been the lowest on record. Its just that when September has come a lot of melt out is done and we are left with similar extent figures as before. This year was the 2nd lowest extent on record but in the record year there was a cyclone. The trend is down and by 2050 there will likely be little or nothing ice wise in the arctic in Summers end

Gaoth Laidir · 21-10-2019 7:33am

pauldry wrote: »

I think its rubbish to suggest the Arctic is stable. There are scarier facts behind the figures. As I said the Jaxa extent is the lowest on record and in many months over the past 5 years it has been the lowest on record. Its just that when September has come a lot of melt out is done and we are left with similar extent figures as before. This year was the 2nd lowest extent on record but in the record year there was a cyclone. The trend is down and by 2050 there will likely be little or nothing ice wise in the arctic in Summers end

So are you saying that the annual extent curve has changed shape and we're reaching the minimum earlier?Because we haven't. I posted the graphs before and 2019 is not the lowest.

Extent is one thing, the actual amount of ice there is another. Where 2019 falls is neither here nor there. If it's close to the record low (volume or extent) is not surprising, as a flat trend means that any year within that period could be close to the minimum. The fact still remains that the trend is flat (for now, anyway) but not one report I've seen has mentioned that. They're now down to quoting each year's rank instead of the trend. The AMO appears to be the main driver of Arctic ice changes.

droidus · 24-10-2019 11:39am

pauldry wrote: »

I think its rubbish to suggest the Arctic is stable. There are scarier facts behind the figures. As I said the Jaxa extent is the lowest on record and in many months over the past 5 years it has been the lowest on record. Its just that when September has come a lot of melt out is done and we are left with similar extent figures as before. This year was the 2nd lowest extent on record but in the record year there was a cyclone. The trend is down and by 2050 there will likely be little or nothing ice wise in the arctic in Summers end

Agreed, but these are not linear systems. There is a significant possibility of an ice free summer before 2030, maybe as soon as 2025, resulting in a massive spike (as much as 0.6 degrees) in warming due to an increase in permafrost methane. Once that happens the climate dominos start to fall.

Oneiric 3 · 28-10-2019 1:44pm

Arctic temperatures for October (full month except for 2019 which is up only up to the 27th) as per the Danish Met Office (DMI)

As of yesterday, the 2019 October mean stands at -10.98c, which ranks it the 4th warmest in the series (warmest was 2018). Another point to note is that there is missing data from between the 2nd and 8th this year on the data set, so this was filled in with a computed linear progression between the 6.04c on the 1st to -8.63c on the 9th. Not perfect but unlikely to distort the overall mean value from what it would have been if the data was available.

Data in graph is centered on the 1961-1990 October average. Black line represents the 10 year rolling average.

Source: DMI.

Oneiric 3 · 29-10-2019 11:23pm

A couple of days data yet to go, but looking increasingly probable that this October's Arctic sea ice extent will come in the lowest on record, or at least since 1979, when records seemed to begin.

Chart source: DMI

Oneiric 3 · 30-10-2019 1:31pm

Interesting. Parts of Denver could potentially achieve it lowest October temperature before the month is out:

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/10/28/denver-coldest-october/

The still standing record of 1.0f occurred back on October 29th 1917. Looking at the reanalysis maps. the Arctic, the source of the intense cold back then, just as it is this time around, was much colder back then than it currently is now.

Current map (850 hPa temps)

Reanalysis map back on October 29th 1917:

Not only was the source of the cold outbreak over N. America much deeper back in 1917, but it was also far closer to the north of the Continent.

Yet back to the present, we have these potentally record breaking low temps coming from a source that potentially record breaking high for the time of year. Current temp anomaly map from C.R:

Something does not really add up here.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 30-10-2019 1:36pm

Currently -14c there at 6.30am, I live in the wrong place.

Oneiric 3 · 03-11-2019 6:56pm

Daily sea ice concentration for October 2019 from NISDC/NASS. Orange line represents the 1981-2010 median extent.
(Large gif file so may take a short while to load)

silverharp · 04-11-2019 10:18am

What is the significance of an average to 2010? Why not just have the average to last year?

Kermit.de.frog · 04-11-2019 10:48am

Impressive ice formation in to the artic sea. This should continue for some weeks yet.

Danno · 04-11-2019 10:58am

silverharp wrote: »

What is the significance of an average to 2010? Why not just have the average to last year?

I'd imagine it is because they started tracking it by Satellite in 1979 so the 1981-2010 is a climate period. This data can then be checked against land based observations that use the 1981-2010 climate period.
Every year "XXX1" plus 29 years makes for a climate period. From 1 January 2021 the climate data for 1991 to 2020 will be another period that comes out as a benchmark.
The 1961-1990 is a widely used benchmark to this day, even though we have 1971-2000 and 1981-2010.

Danno · 04-11-2019 11:06am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Impressive ice formation in to the arctic sea. This should continue for some weeks yet.

It is indeed, the rapid ice formation over the past two weeks or thereabouts has caught interest from many who are surprised by the rapid gains owing to the warmer than average air and sea surface temperatures there.

The levels are bouncing back towards the 2010s averages and within a couple of weeks could peek above that level if current refreeze trends continue.

Interestingly, the 80N temperatures show a persistent drop in temperatures, albeit slightly above the 1958-2002 norms, and a lack of mild air incursions which was the case in 2016 - see below:

2019:

2016:

Oneiric 3 · 04-11-2019 7:28pm

30 year climate period averages for Ireland:

Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

Kingswood Rover · 04-11-2019 7:55pm

interesting to see the 01-20 average i am guessing 9.8???? or so.

Danno · 04-11-2019 9:28pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

30 year climate period averages for Ireland:

Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

Interesting. What stations were used to collate this data?

Over the 100 year period our average temperature was 9.25c

Gaoth Laidir · 05-11-2019 12:23am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

30 year climate period averages for Ireland:

Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

I've overlaid your data on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation data to highlight how much of a primary influence this natural mode is on European (and US) temperatures. I reckon if we had the precipitation data we'd see a similar pattern.

Oneiric 3 · 05-11-2019 6:26pm

Climate period averages for Northern Ireland from the UK Met. Data only from 1910 available. Similar trends, though more variance between each period

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/Northern_Ireland.txt

Danno & Gaoth. Info about that data from link below. Not sure what, if any, Irish stations are used to help calculate this data, but would imagine that long-term datasets from the likes of Armagh, Phoenix Pk and Valentia played a big role.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data

In which you can download both temperature and rainfall data for a specific region from this portal:

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data.

Useful data resource, but I think they underplay both warm and cold monthly extremes, which has always been the nature of data based primarily on model reanalysis.

.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-11-2019 11:36pm

Here are the Ireland figures from that link, Oneiric.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-11-2019 1:20am

Ice formation has begun in Hudson Bay.

Easy to see why. Sea Ice will advance rapidly here in the coming days with very cold incursions in to North America...

gfsnh-1-6.png?18

Gaoth Laidir · 08-11-2019 7:47am

https://twitter.com/thisisFINLAND/status/1192140907887415296?s=19

q85dw7osi4lebg · 08-11-2019 10:01am

Heaven.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-11-2019 10:21pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Daily sea ice concentration for October 2019 from NISDC/NASS. Orange line represents the 1981-2010 median extent.
(Large gif file so may take a short while to load)

Overall, the month of October saw Arctic ice gain close to average. More here.

Oneiric 3 · 30-11-2019 9:41am

This November's Arctic ice extent up to yesterday (circled in blue). Looks like it will finish in and around the longer term trend.

(DMI)

Oneiric 3 · 02-12-2019 10:24am

November's daily sea ice extent and thickness animation from the Danish Met Office: (large file; may take many minutes to load)

Doing OK on the Atlantic side, but struggling on the Pacific edge.

pauldry · 02-12-2019 3:23pm

Far too much purple.

Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

Pacific needs a real freeze up doesnt it

blanch152 · 02-12-2019 10:04pm

pauldry wrote: »

Far too much purple.

Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

Pacific needs a real freeze up doesnt it

Deep solar minimum and we are tracking at the third lowest extent this week.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2019 1:23am

pauldry wrote: »

Far too much purple.

Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

That, in itself, would be nothing out of the standard norm in fairness.

Danno · 09-12-2019 11:15am

According to the JAXA monitoring service: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent the 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Extent has pushed above the 2010s average for the first time since March 14th this year. This puts current extent at the fifth lowest in the satellite recording series that began in 1978.

cherryghost · 09-12-2019 11:58am

Are there thickness comparisons from the other low SIE?

Kermit.de.frog · 08-01-2020 7:15am

Sea Ice down the west coast of Greenland between Newfoundland looking very healthy at the moment and only getting better over the next couple of weeks as serious cold continues to be ejected here from the polar latitudes.

There will be a significant advance here beyond the norm.

One of the perks of the polar vortex being so strong is it locks the cold air in the higher latitudes, mostly it can't escape - it just spins and spins and does wonders for sea ice formation.

Northern Hemisphere Ice and Snow Advance 2019/20

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