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Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards
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23-11-2010 8:23pm#1
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hey lads how do you imbed an image on a post
Go to the bottom of your screen (in 'reply' mode), you'll see 'manage attachments' button:
A wee box will come up and you can paste the url image into it, then press 'upload'. When the image is uploaded, copy the url, click on this box on the reply box:
then paste the attached image url into it. Click ok and your away!
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My view on matters:
Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.
Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.
Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.
High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.
Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.
By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.
These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.
Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind
The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.
Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.0 -
My view on matters:
Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.
Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.
Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.
High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.
Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.
By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.
These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.
Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind
The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.
Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.
Thats some forecast.. :eek::eek:0 -
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JanuarySnowstor wrote: »More of the same from Jean, risk of snow etc.
Didn't emphasise the fact that it will get progressively colder from Friday
Ah well we know better here and will prepare accordingly
Actually she did say it was going to get progressively colder from thursday onwards so not sure what you are basing that statement on
Us weather enthusiasts may have a clue what might be coming in the longer term and indeed why it is coming but 99.99% of the population don't.
Check it out for yourself:
http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1085535
go to 23 mins.0 -
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Here's a very interesting article (Google translation) from the Norwegian Met on today's Polar Low off the north coast of Finnmark, which is the strongest of the year so far.
It would be nice to have such an article on the met.ie site around next Monday eh!!
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maq still trying to learn reading them charts but is that -10 850hpa creeping in over us which would realy increase chance of snow at lower levels?maquiladora wrote: »
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JanuarySnowstor wrote: »I suppose we are rightly cautious after so many let downs in the past.
A bit like a jilted lover going on a first date:D
Tell me about it. Ive seen so many marginal setups ramped to high heaven down through the years only to end in tears. :pac:
Ive learned to be cautious the painful way.
Weve probably got another 10 days or so left before this cold spell might start to breakdown, theres a lot of uncertainty and unknowns in that timeframe...Im hoping for some surprises but my outlook remains cautious. 0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »
Weve probably got another 10 days or so left before this cold spell might start to breakdown
ECM's ensemble mean run keeps it cool right up to 240hrs as well (850 temps):
although hints that a breakdown from the NW may happen thereafter.0 -
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An irish winter will be remembered as a classic if it includes 2-3 significant snow events. This same winter may be classified as having recorded slightly above average temps. However, I would take it over the deep freeze that Joe B is predicting for southern and Eastern Europe.
Cutting all the nonsense of who is right and is Joe on the money, the signs are pretty clear and have been since early September that Ireland is going to see some northerly and easterly blocking systems battle with the Atlantic which, despite a 2 week period of dominance over our weather at the beginning of this month, is not as active as in recent years.
It is as a clear as day to me and others who read the outputs day after day that the Atlantic very well may break down the current blocking scenario but it won't introduce much more than average temps for the time of year. Even then I am confident that blocking highs to our north and northeast will engage the milder Atlantic influence over our weather, hence creating the 'classic' significant snowfall scenario for Ireland i.e. Ireland being a battleground between cold and warmer systems.
Joe also forgets about the microclimate that exists in Ireland and to a lesser extent in Britain. We are both islands at the butt end of the gulf stream. He has been right in the past but he has equally called it wrong for the British Isles on other occasions. Would like to see his rationale behind his outlook explained a little better. I don't see where he is getting the notion that blocking highs are going to drift further east when all the evidence suggests the opposite.
whether he is right or wrong, only time will tell. My money is on this cold spell breaking down by december 10th, followed by a period of 'normal' atlantic influenced weather up until Christmas or shortly after. We will then return to a similar set up to what we are experiencing now. this outlook is based on how the weather has been behaving for the past 2 months.
ps...i don't know if we will have a country for snow to fall on come Christmas. Vincent Browne show tonight was one of the most sobering pieces of tv i have ever seen. This great country is well and truly in trouble
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The real game changer for this weekend is a low pressure system just starting to form to the south of Svalbard this evening, as shown in the Norwegian Met's 1800UTC analysis below. There is a nearby northerly jet of above 100kts, as seen in the 1800 Bjørnjøya sounding, which is just east of the jet axis.
1800 Analysis
This jet will serve to strengthen the susrface low as it moves southwards towards northwestern Norway by 1200UTC Wednesday.
One thing I note from the recent midnight observations is that the pressure at Hornsund (1025.7hPa), on the southern tip of Svalbard, is already a couple of hPa lower than the 12Z ECMWF had forecast for this time (~1028hPa). This could be a signal that the model does not have a handle on the evolution of the low up to now, and so future runs could post a lower low than previously, as per the 18Z Icelandic HiRLAM, which has the low at around 1003hPa by midnight tomorrow, where the ECMWF had it at 1005.
00Z tonight ECMWF chart (12 Run)
The 18Z GFS is also similarly out on the low tonight, so we could see both models showing slight changes in the depth and track of this low over the next couple of days.
00Z Pressure observations0 -
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