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Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
Introducing http://www.boards.ie/vote
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04-02-2011 5:18pm#1Could all of us on Boards.ie predict how the country will vote in the General Election?
Given the size of Boards.ie - 2.225 million unique visitors in January 2011, over 415,000 members registered, over 190,900 active, and over 28,700 people having posted on the site over 128,500 times in the last 7 days - we thought it would be interesting to see just how accurate we could be.
We've put together http://www.boards.ie/vote to see just how this might work.
Our election simulator invites all Boards.ie members to place a vote as they will in the General Election for candidates and parties. Only Boards.ie members can use the site.
You can vote for your candidates, decide to spoil your vote or just let us know you're undecided. We'll total the votes in the same way as it will be in the General Election (the Droop quota method and the Single Transferable Vote system of Proportional Representation) and update the results every hour.
We'll also be allowing people to check the Latest National Results and see who's doing well in their local constituency.
Coupled with our general election discussions and other innovations we hope to introduce , we're hoping this will remind people of the importance of having a vote and using it.
WHERE HAS ALL THE DATA COME FROM?
The simulator went live at 16:00 on Friday 4 Feb, 2011. We've been testing out our first go at this with our moderators over the last couple of days. All of our information is public information, uploaded with thanks to TheJournal.ie
HOW ACCURATE IS IT?
While we hope it will be fairly representative, we are realistic in terms of accuracies. Some Boards.ie members who vote in this may not actually be eligible to vote in the actual election.
We also know some people may go to the trouble of registering duplicate accounts to game the system. We'll do our best to monitor the site and identify offenders, but because this is the first time we've done this, it's difficult to predict what the results will be.
IS MY VOTE PRIVATE?
Details of your votes or preferences are NOT available to any members, moderators, Administrators or the Community Managers of Boards.ie, nor to any political parties, partners, advertisers or affiliates.
It will not be recorded on your public profile. It is recorded in our database in the same way as PM's and Private Forum messages, only accessible by our technical team.
HOW CAN I CONTACT YOU?
We'd love to hear any constructive feedback you have. If you need to contact us, just post below or drop us a line at hello@boards.ie and we'll do our best to help.
If you spot any errors or omissions, please let us know here.
Your support, help and input is appreciated
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witnessmenow wrote: »It wont be that accurate at all I'd imagine! The strongest voters (old people) wouldn't make up many boards members!
Yeah, good point, didn't think of that one! DOH
At least you're encouraging all boards members to register to vote (very responsible). If everyone actually used their vote it could really shake up the political parties!0 -
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I ticked the "Show a badge next to my posts on Boards.ie" box, but I'm not seeing any badge next to my posts (or other uses' posts). Am I missing something?
Edit: Seems to be fixed now.
I voted..great idea! I clicked the badge too but its not beside my name!
*EDIT*
Ahh..there it is!!!!0 -
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A little off topic, but the problem with the e-voting machines was that there was no audit trail. While this mini-site isn't the most sophisticated, it doesn't have the level of responsibility of an actual national election.Great idea Darragh, get the copyright on this quick before RTE start using it.
Quick question, how come this can be done up in no time and up and running on the Boards and the eVoting machines were a disaster lol.
I'm not sure if it erases them from the database, but certainly they don't count any more. I think it is hoped to have a method of determining the trends in the election, e.g. over time, there may be a definite trend of people moving from one party to another or candidate X might suddenly lose all his support after making a gaffe.davetherave wrote: »Does that mean that, if I've already voted in my own constituency and I now vote in say Dublin Central will this erase my Kildare North results from the db?
This is largely consistent with polls by others. The problem for SF is that polls tend to overstate the percentage of first preferences they are likely to get and the number of seats.Sinn Fein has 10% :eek:
They do, but only here.Corsendonk wrote: »What about the Boards voters abroad??? Do they get to vote?
Agreed. It has been suggested.NekkidBibleMan wrote: »It'd be nice for an 'abroad' constituency, not included in the national tally, but to see how the many emigrants would vote (even if only on a party basis)...I just did it, what a class plan! I would imagine it would be pretty accurate too. Brilliant!
The way this poll will be accurate is that is has the potential for tens of thousands to vote in it. However, it has the problem of being biased (the proportions of tge population of any given age, gender, location, economic status, etc. are different between boards.ie and the people that actually vote) and self-selecting (not randomised).Great idea imo! Has the potential to be waay more accurate than any opinion poll too.
Ideally, you would like to get maybe 100 votes per constituency (perhaps 6,000 votes total), but I think they are just going to have to make a judgement call at some stage. Ignoring the bias and self-selection, 100 votes would give an accuracy of about +5% which is the type of thing you would need to start transferring votes.TrinityPhD wrote: »Question - How many votes will it take to move from the current results to the STV results?
Agreed and already suggested, although you are perhaps over-doing it.Suggestion - You include either an option where people can say they are registered and intend to vote to give your results slightly more accuracy, or you include a dummy constituency so that people who live abroad/can't vote can register their opinions in some way without skewing the poll results.
Make it a Five seater, with three candidates from FG & FF, two from Labour & SF, 1 Green, 1 WP etc. and a few single issue candidates.
You could make the suggested candidates have generic profiles - sitting TD on front bench, back bench TD, counciller who's worked hard for the area for years, save our local hospital candidate . . But the idea is good.
I imagine this will come in time, however, the sample sizes need to be a bit bigger before one can get a meaningful indication.one small addition would be a way to see how many TDs each party will as the vote stands.. I know the %s are there but it'd be nice to get a definite number of seats each party will have if the poll works out to be pretty accurate..
I realise its a guesstimate, but some parties tend to be over-represented and other under-represented relative to their first preference percentages.I just did a quick tote and on 1st pref so far (I missed 4 somehow but anyway):
FG 63
Lab 51
SF 23
FF 5
ULA 4
Green 3
Ind 13
<just for anorak fun>0 -
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