Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

darkman2 · 10-11-2010 6:58am #1

Extreme wind conditions will effect the country for approx 12 - 14 hours from 3pm Thursday - Severe gusts and damage likely. Gusts could be over 100mph especially in exposed areas. More typically 60 - 80mph. I think tile, tree, power line damage is quite likely. It will feel like more of a storm then the last one which was not a storm at all but anyway......also heavy rain for a while tomorrow night with the slight possibility of flooding near low river banks. The North and West will bare the brunt of the strong winds.

Big waves can be expected on the Atlantc seaboard again.

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 8:14am

Come to daddy !!

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 8:30am

Latest met eireann forecast downgraded highest gusts in exposed areas from 130kph to 120kph, so no higher gusts anywhere more than 75mph on the official forecast.

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 8:37am

Just listened to OceanFM which covers southwest Donegal and not a word yet. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow.

snaps · 10-11-2010 8:46am

I think the last so called storm got so much press that this time they dont want to get it wrong.

jambofc · 10-11-2010 8:57am

just seen the bbc weather and hardly a mention,just a bit windy with blustery showers

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 10:04am

Can we close the ' Potentially ' thread so we are all in the one place

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 10:10am

jambofc wrote: »

just seen the bbc weather and hardly a mention,just a bit windy with blustery showers

UKMO have said they will be issuing warnings for severe gales in a few hours.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 10:31am

80knot convective gusts?

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur39.png

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 10:37am

I hope I will be reading this thread in the memorable weather threads in a few days.

Storm 10 · 10-11-2010 10:40am

MODS can you decide which thread we are going to use for this storm otherwise people will be posting in two different threads for the same event and may miss something

Su Campu · 10-11-2010 10:59am

The US have Carmen (let's start referring to it by her proper name!) developing hurricane force winds out to sea by tonight, which again I think is a slight exaggeration.

The 00Z ECMWF has downgraded winds to 40-45 kts affecting the northwest coastal areas, the GFS up to 55kts. Still a bit to play for...

the_syco · 10-11-2010 11:06am

darkman2 wrote: »

Extreme wind conditions will effect the country for approx 12 - 14 hours from 3pm Thursday - Severe gusts and damage likely.

Hrm. Footie at 18:30 will be fun, then

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 11:07am

06Z GFS doesn't change much but upgrades the winds for the southwest and southeast areas :

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 11:10am

Su Campu wrote: »

The 00Z ECMWF has downgraded winds to 40-45 kts affecting the northwest coastal areas, the GFS up to 55kts. Still a bit to play for...

That would probably explain then why the Met Eireann forecast has gone down to 120kph max gusts.

Still plenty of time for further downgrades/upgrades.... its all part of the rollercoaster to me

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 11:25am

Carmen is starting to slide south I notice

Knowing my luck with previous weather events ( last years snow shiels on the border ) I'll be stuck in the calm eye of the storm ! :mad:

snowjon · 10-11-2010 11:26am

Interesting extended forecast for the inshore waters around the North Irish coast:

Wind - West or southwest gale 8 to storm 10, increasing violent storm 11 for a time, veering northwest later.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/inshore/regional_forecast.shtml?13

Not often Violent Storm 11 appears in these forecasts :eek:

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 11:31am

snowjon wrote: »

Not often Violent Storm 11 appears in these forecasts :eek:

Always remember loving hearing "Violent Storm Force 11" on the RTE sea area forecasts while listening to the radio under the blankets as a kid. Havent heard it in years (decades actually but I dont say that too loud

)

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 11:43am

Important to remember those winds at sea are always going to be higher than on land. But back in 1997 sustained violent storm force winds were recorded on land, at Cork and Shannon airports. That was a serious storm, I'll never forget it.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 11:46am

From the UKMO :

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

UK regions:
North West England
Wales
Yorkshire & Humber
East Midlands

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northwest England, some Pennine areas, and parts of North Wales during Thursday evening. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected to gust 70 to 80 mph around exposed coastal areas and over hills, with gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland. Winds should ease into Friday morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Interesting there is no mention of N Ireland there.

snowjon · 10-11-2010 11:47am

maquiladora wrote: »

From the UKMO :

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

UK regions:
North West England
Wales
Yorkshire & Humber
East Midlands

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northwest England, some Pennine areas, and parts of North Wales during Thursday evening. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected to gust 70 to 80 mph around exposed coastal areas and over hills, with gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland. Winds should ease into Friday morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Interesting there is no mention of N Ireland there.

Quite often, the warnings take a while to trickle out, so maybe something for Northern Ireland in the next 15 minutes or so.....

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 11:51am

There are some charts that are worth framing ! (Red dot is me)

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 11:53am

maquiladora wrote: »

80knot convective gusts?

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur39.png

Ill say estofex will hav a level one waring issued for this by 2nite, Surprised to see M E not having a Weather warning issued for it yet.

Shamanic · 10-11-2010 11:57am

Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 11:58am

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ill say estofex will hav a level one waring issued for this by 2nite, Surprised to see M E not having a Weather warning issued for it yet.

We got a level 1 for sunday night, I think a level 2 is possible with those kind of charts.

I'd expect there will be a Met Eireann warning on the next update. I'm sure they will want to wait long enough to make sure it is as accurate as possible.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 12:00pm

Shamanic wrote: »

Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

Bumpy ride for sure , MEs forecast for dublin 2moro "Rain will move away and will leave a showery day. Some of the showers thundery or of hail. Becoming even more windy with some severe gusts in particular along coastal parts. Highs of 10 to 13 degrees."

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 12:01pm

snowjon wrote: »

Quite often, the warnings take a while to trickle out, so maybe something for Northern Ireland in the next 15 minutes or so.....

I'd imagine that has to be the case. Either that or they think the track might end up a lot further south? Models don't suggest that though.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 12:02pm

maquiladora wrote: »

We got a level 1 for sunday night, I think a level 2 is possible with those kind of charts.

I'd expect there will be a Met Eireann warning on the next update. I'm sure they will want to wait long enough to make sure it is as accurate as possible.

Ye i agree, with level 2 more confined over the northern half of the country. Even tough ill be in dublin im still looking forward to it

Mr Benevolent · 10-11-2010 12:05pm

Shamanic wrote: »

Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

Get the train.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 12:07pm

Confab wrote: »

Get the train.

+1

Shamanic · 10-11-2010 12:09pm

Confab wrote: »

Get the train.

If only it was that simple! It's all booked via work so it's always planes, best bring a change of clothes could be in for a long wait!

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 12:23pm

Shamanic wrote: »

If only it was that simple! It's all booked via work so it's always planes, best bring a change of clothes could be in for a long wait!

If its a bumpy flight you might need a certain change of clothes when you land too !!:)

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 12:24pm

Widespread inland 100-110kph gusts according to the GFS.

More intense gusts all along the west and northwest coasts.

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 12:37pm

I'm seriously thinking about grabbing a day off tomorrow and driving out towards the west (Achill Island perhaps?) in the morning to witness some of it... Massive winds and not a lot of rain, conditions look great. Anyone care to join? I'd be driving from Dublin area, leaving around 9-10am. By around 3pm I should know if I can take a day off.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 12:38pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Widespread inland 100-110kph gusts according to the GFS.

More intense gusts all along the west and northwest coasts.

hmm, i hav the option to travel to Ennis 2moro, would there be stronger winds there than in dublin or roughly the same as Ennis is a bit further south?

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 12:40pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

I'm seriously thinking about grabbing a day off tomorrow and driving out towards the west (Achill Island perhaps?) in the morning to witness some of it... Massive winds and not a lot of rain, conditions look great. Anyone care to join? I'd be driving from Dublin area, leaving around 9-10am. By around 3pm I should know if I can take a day off.

WBSCC.... " Weather Boards Storm Chasing Convoy"

Su Campu · 10-11-2010 12:41pm

Shamanic wrote: »

Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

Are you flying Ryanair or Aer Arann? There will be a strong crosswind at Cork which would be the limiting factor. The 737 has a much higher crosswind limit than the ATRs, so Ryanair would be the better bet. Winds at Dublin will be straight down the runway, so although it will be very bumpy, I'd say traffic won't be too affected.

Min · 10-11-2010 12:44pm

Looks windy for exposed hills :pac:

Shamanic · 10-11-2010 12:48pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Are you flying Ryanair or Aer Arann? There will be a strong crosswind at Cork which would be the limiting factor. The 737 has a much higher crosswind limit than the ATRs, so Ryanair would be the better bet. Winds at Dublin will be straight down the runway, so although it will be very bumpy, I'd say traffic won't be too affected.

Usually fly ryanair so hopefully they'll grace with that this time!

Harps · 10-11-2010 12:48pm

I was supposed to be getting a ferry out to an island on the west coast Thursday evening, think I'll be giving that a miss. Would love to head out to see the sea though

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 12:48pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Widespread inland 100-110kph gusts according to the GFS.

More intense gusts all along the west and northwest coasts.

So based on that chart, although the storm is unlikely to be as severe inland as the stoms of 1997, 1998 and 1990, with ground saturated and the peak winds expected to last about four- five hours(till around 4- 5pm) a lot of trees could be whipped over.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 12:55pm

nacho libre wrote: »

So based on that chart, although the storm is unlikely to be as severe inland as the stoms of 1997, 1998 and 1990, with ground saturated and the peak winds expected to last about four- five hours(till around 4- 5pm) a lot of trees could be whipped over.

To be honest it's been so long so I experienced a damaging storm I'm not really sure what level of gusts would be needed to bring down branches/trees etc.

I have to point out though that gust chart I posted is the one from 3pm. I don't have access to those charts for later in the day but on lower res wind charts there are higher gusts for the east/southeast at 6pm and 9pm than on the 3pm one.

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 12:55pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

I'm seriously thinking about grabbing a day off tomorrow and driving out towards the west (Achill Island perhaps?) in the morning to witness some of it... Massive winds and not a lot of rain, conditions look great. Anyone care to join? I'd be driving from Dublin area, leaving around 9-10am. By around 3pm I should know if I can take a day off.

i'm thinking about going to Achill Island or the Erris Peninsula. Erris head looks the place to be if you want to experience the worst of it.

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 12:56pm

Wonder will the papers be sinmilar to this on Friday monirng

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/esb-in-allout-drive-to-repair-storm-damage-425050.html

:rolleyes:

Su Campu · 10-11-2010 1:00pm

irish1967 wrote: »

Wonder will the papers be sinmilar to this on Friday monirng

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/esb-in-allout-drive-to-repair-storm-damage-425050.html

:rolleyes:

I'd say if any of the numbskull journalists take a peek on here, we'll be then having to deal with "Hurricane Carmen on the way" headlines!
:rolleyes:

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 1:00pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm thinking about going to Achill Island or the Erris Peninsula. Erris head looks the place to be if you want to experience the worst of it.

I was thinking about the Menawn hill on the Achill, by the radio towers, 400m ASL, surely that'll be something?
Where are you heading from?

rhonin · 10-11-2010 1:04pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm thinking about going to Achill Island or the Erris Peninsula. Erris head looks the place to be if you want to experience the worst of it.

If I didn't have work I'd be there. (well not exactly on the head itself but close enough

) Not that far from my parents place.

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 1:12pm

maquiladora wrote: »

To be honest it's been so long so I experienced a damaging storm I'm not really sure what level of gusts would be needed to bring down branches/trees etc.

I have to point out though that gust chart I posted is the one from 3pm. I don't have access to those charts for later in the day but on lower res wind charts there are higher gusts for the east/southeast at 6pm and 9pm than on the 3pm one.

Well, going on past experience trees have been whipped here with 70-75mph gusts. If memory serves me correctly the ground was fairly saturated on those occasions also.

Hooter23 · 10-11-2010 1:13pm

Winds gust to 140km now on met eireann website did they upgrade it?

snowjon · 10-11-2010 1:13pm

The latest ME forecast has upgraded the storm to 140kph gusts:

Very windy and showery tomorrow. In fact stormy conditions are likely from mid afternoon and through the evening with gale force westerly winds and squalls of 100 to 140km/hr, most severe winds in parts of Connaught and Ulster.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

:eek::eek:

Hooter23 · 10-11-2010 1:14pm

I beat you to it lol:p

Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

Comments