The rural wilds of North Dublin- why not build?

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 11:17am #1

The thread about the Tallaght Garda station one had a few posts about Dubs who were forced to the outlying counties and beyond by the cost of housing.

It got me wondering- why is north country Dublin so sparsely built on?

I know there are zoning laws and what have you, but why was the land never zoned and built on, particularly during the boom? Farming is a tough, largely subsidised business. I'd wager the vast majority of Dublin farmers would like nothing more to sell up for a fortune.

Just looking at a map, by my reckoning you could house 100,000 people, in what, 30,000 homes, in the rural lands between the Corduff/ Tyrellstown part of Blanch and the airport.

Another largely rural spot to the left of Swords and north of the airport could house perhaps 150,000.

North East of Swords looks to be maybe 3 or 4 times the size of the Blanchardstown area. A potential 400,000 people housed.

The population of Meath has nearly doubled, and grown by over 100,000, since 1996.

Kildare has also grown by over 100,000 in the same period.

Louth up by 40,000.

Westmeath 30,000.

Yet North County Dublin has, from my view of it, room for 750,000 people. More if we build more flats.

You can bet that the majority of Dubs resident in Meath and Kildare were born and brought up in North and West Dublin but found the prices too expensive. You can also bet the vast majority of people in these counties born elsewhere in the state were attracted to the Dublin area for work and would probably prefer to live within a shorter distance of the place. What is, and was, the sense of putting these people in estates in the hinterland that, while having good road and rail access, don't have a fraction of the bus service that those within the Dublin Bus service area do?

Samuel T. Cogley · 10-08-2018 11:20am

Theres a huge development planned around D5/D13/D17 - I forget exactly where.

It's only just about becoming 'viable' (read huge profit) to build in North Dublin.

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 11:24am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Theres a huge development planned around D5/D13/D17 - I forget exactly where.

It's only just about becoming 'viable' (read huge profit) to build in North Dublin.

That's the thing as well. Even during the boom no new towns were really developed in the way Blanch, Clondalkin, Tallaght were in the 70's. Rather they just built new sections on to them- the likes of Ongar and Tyrellstown are essentially part of Blanch rather than suburbs in their own right.

In fact, the only two new towns they did try (Adamstown and Clongriffin) are today desolate half built kips (well, Clongriffin isn't too pretty, but I've heard the same of Adamstown)

Why was it less profitable to build there than say, Kildare?

Samuel T. Cogley · 10-08-2018 11:27am

Mike Hoch wrote: »

Why was it less profitable to build there than say, Kildare?

I'd hazard a guess the land is a lot cheaper.

Hector Bellend · 10-08-2018 11:37am

Because some tree hugging nimby crank will lodge objection after objection rather than let people find a solution to the housing crisis.

The apple project in Galway stands as a shining example.

Donald Trump · 10-08-2018 11:38am

Yiz can fuck right off out of the North County ya townie bollixes. Enough of yiz there already. Time for a purge

I need it for me next golf course!

SEPT 23 1989 · 10-08-2018 11:39am

A lot of it is farmed

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 11:40am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess the land is a lot cheaper.

But then so is the selling price.

How much profit would a developer be seeking to make per house in a development of three beds out of interest? Would they be happy with, say, 20,000 per house for a 200 home project?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tyrrelstown-land-bank-of-260-acres-guiding-45m-1.3536053

Calling it at 850 homes, each house plot would cost 52,941. Slightly less given much of the estate will be public roads, footpaths, amenities etc.

But, in terms of purchase price, it would be around 52,000 of your investment. Of course, plot costs for a development of terraced housing or flats is going to be less than this. As is land that is further away from the M50 and the city centre than Tyrellstown is.

Of course you'd want your head examined if you'r paying 370K plus for a house in Tyrellstown, with the reputation it's getting they homes should be worth half that, but each to their own.

Depends on the type of house being built obviously, but that housing co op in Ballymun built 3 bed terraces for minimum profit at 140K on land gifted by the council

Hande hoche! · 10-08-2018 11:41am

Water infrastructure. Seems to be all the rage these days.

Hector Bellend · 10-08-2018 11:44am

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Water infrastructure. Seems to be all the rage these days.

There has been a 2 month "drought" in the rest of the country and a decades long problems with poor water infrastructure that has remained unsolved.

People still need housing. And they still refuse to address the issue of water infrastructure.

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 11:45am

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Water infrastructure. Seems to be all the rage these days.

I guess my question is nearly more retrospective than anything. The bulk of the population growth in the counties surrounding Dublin would have been caused by Dubs and country folk who work in Dublin. The majority of whom would likely have preferred to live in Dublin, but moved either because they couldn't afford a house in what they regarded as a decent area, or they wanted a bigger house than what they could afford in Dublin. Instead of accommodating these hundreds of thousands of people within the county, estates were built in small villages in the bordering counties. Places well served by motorways and in some spots trains, but places that by and large lack a bus service as regular as Dublin Bus. The people, and the infrastructure, already exist- it just seems strange we decided to push the growth West and North West.

detones · 10-08-2018 11:45am

"Fingal county provides around 55% of the country’s fresh produce, which includes soft fruits and berries, apples, lettuces, peppers, asparagus, potatoes, onions, and carrots."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/farming/agribusiness/the-flourishing-flavours-of-fingal-242443.html

So there would be places for people to live, but nothing left to eat.

Westernyelp · 10-08-2018 11:45am

Donald Trump wrote:

Yiz can **** right off out of the North County ya townie bollixes. Enough of yiz there already. Time for a purge

Donald Trump wrote:

I need it for me next golf course!

You are getting your pretend personalities mixed up again Don.

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 11:51am

detones wrote: »

"Fingal county provides around 55% of the country’s fresh produce, which includes soft fruits and berries, apples, lettuces, peppers, asparagus, potatoes, onions, and carrots."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/farming/agribusiness/the-flourishing-flavours-of-fingal-242443.html

So there would be places for people to live, but nothing left to eat.

I wasn't aware of that! I obviously knew about the berrys potatos etc but I never imagined a small corner of one of the states smallest counties fed half the market.

Even at that though, I doubt the majority of green space is being used for crops. Developments could surely be built around these fields. If there are only 600 active farmers in Fingal I'm sure that leaves plenty of growing space left over if building commenced up there.

vicwatson · 10-08-2018 11:52am

Thornton Hall, 30 million, there, I said it.

Donald Trump · 10-08-2018 11:54am

detones wrote: »

"Fingal county provides around 55% of the country’s fresh produce, which includes soft fruits and berries, apples, lettuces, peppers, asparagus, potatoes, onions, and carrots."

But what country is gonna want carrots

Sleepy · 10-08-2018 12:04pm

There's huge amounts of development happening in North County Dublin. Donabate alone is set to double in population over the next 5/6 years.

A lot of the undeveloped land is, as already mentioned in the thread, being profitably farmed so would be expensive.

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 12:10pm

Sleepy wrote: »

There's huge amounts of development happening in North County Dublin. Donabate alone is set to double in population over the next 5/6 years.

A lot of the undeveloped land is, as already mentioned in the thread, being profitably farmed so would be expensive.

A lot of it is. But are 600 Fingal farmers really profitably using every inch of land that could house upwards of 700,000 people? It seems doubtful- a cursory glance when driving by would suggest to me that the bulk of the land isn't actually used for crops.

There also seems to be plenty of unused land beside our motorway network.

topper75 · 10-08-2018 12:16pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

A lot of it is farmed

The vast majority of urban Ireland in 2018 once was.

P_1 · 10-08-2018 12:20pm

NCD is the country's most productive agricultural land.

Madness to pave that over.

The solution is to build up. 15 stories within the canals. 6 stories within the M50

Mike Hoch · 10-08-2018 12:24pm

P_1 wrote: »

NCD is the country's most productive agricultural land.

Madness to pave that over.

The solution is to build up. 15 stories within the canals. 6 stories within the M50

I was surprised to learn upon checking the densitites of European cities where apartment living is more the norm that Dublin is not significantly lower density than they are. Seems they just use the free space for more road and rail coverage, parks etc.

JupiterKid · 10-08-2018 12:24pm

The key thing holding back large scale housing development in North Dublin is a lack of water and sewage infrastructure.

Yes, much of the land could be developed and some of it will - but the market garden farming is also an issue. But labd is completely wasted in this country - I mean really wasted. Go to Holland or Switzerland and see how these countries get the most out of a scarce amount of land.

Geuze · 10-08-2018 1:12pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

But then so is the selling price.

How much profit would a developer be seeking to make per house in a development of three beds out of interest? Would they be happy with, say, 20,000 per house for a 200 home project?

I have seen a figure of 52,000 for developer profit per apartment.

Cost of finance is also very high.

2016 data:

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=885&field=file

Geuze · 10-08-2018 1:17pm

2016 house building costs, 3-bed semi

construction costs = 150,251

other costs incl profit (=38k), land, VAT, etc.

Total cost = 330k

jjbrien · 10-08-2018 1:20pm

To be honest we need to start building high density housing we cant keep going at the pace that everyone gets a 3 bed semi detached house with a front and back garden.

mariaalice · 10-08-2018 1:25pm

I love north county Dublin it's a sort of hidden gem it's not dramatic like the Wicklow landscape but it's got a quiet charm and a distinct culture, for example, the distinctive thatched cottages and a lovely coastline.

PokeHerKing · 10-08-2018 1:26pm

detones wrote:

"Fingal county provides around 55% of the countryâ€™s fresh produce, which includes soft fruits and berries, apples, lettuces, peppers, asparagus, potatoes, onions, and carrots."

Jesus don't tell the boggers that! They think Dublin would starve without them!

BarryD2 · 10-08-2018 1:34pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

A lot of it is farmed

Traditional 'fruit & veg basket' for Dublin. Re water, I think there's a good sized aquifer underneath that area.

Will I Am Not · 10-08-2018 1:34pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

A lot of it is farmed

This. Balbriggan at the very north of Dublin has almost doubled in population and size in the last 20 years and it’s virtually all on ex-farmland.
Farmland in Dublin and surrounding areas is prime location farmland and it doesn’t come cheap.

The Crowman · 10-08-2018 1:46pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

A lot of it is. But are 600 Fingal farmers really profitably using every inch of land that could house upwards of 700,000 people? It seems doubtful- a cursory glance when driving by would suggest to me that the bulk of the land isn't actually used for crops.

There also seems to be plenty of unused land beside our motorway network.

Who wants to live beside a motorway?

weldoninhio · 10-08-2018 1:49pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

A lot of it is. But are 600 Fingal farmers really profitably using every inch of land that could house upwards of 700,000 people? It seems doubtful- a cursory glance when driving by would suggest to me that the bulk of the land isn't actually used for crops.

There also seems to be plenty of unused land beside our motorway network.

Fingal is the fastest growing area in Ireland ffs.

Donald Trump · 10-08-2018 3:04pm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Jesus don't tell the boggers that! They think Dublin would starve without them!

Fingal is part of Dublin.

North Co. Dublin

And you would starve without it :pac:

daheff · 10-08-2018 4:01pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess the land is a lot cheaper.

It was cheaper because the council did swap deals with builders to give them preferential land for land banks builders had in less desirable places. Idea was the builders would build affordable houses because of this. Funnily enough builders sold at market rates (and above) when the houses came to market.

Jim 77 · 10-08-2018 4:32pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

I wasn't aware of that! I obviously knew about the berrys potatos etc but I never imagined a small corner of one of the states smallest counties fed half the market.

Even at that though, I doubt the majority of green space is being used for crops. Developments could surely be built around these fields. If there are only 600 active farmers in Fingal I'm sure that leaves plenty of growing space left over if building commenced up there.

I think that's 55% of the fresh fruit and vegetables produced in Ireland not 55% of what's consumed in Ireland. As for frozen fruit and vegetables, it's nearly all imported.

ArchXStanton · 10-08-2018 4:35pm

Loads of farmers were I live have sold their land or some of it in the last few years,hard labour and trying to sustain a living these days from growing vegetables I'd say is the biggest factor or else sons and daughters that inherited the land said fcuk that,I'm not doing that for the rest of my days.

I've seen Rush change considerably over the last few years, at one stage a good portion of the town was under glass houses,now its being marketed as a seaside commuter belt town

Junkyard Tom · 10-08-2018 4:40pm

The problem with accommodation policy is that a large majority of the politicos who craft it, and those they answer to, already have homes... often many homes.

The aforementioned realities combined with NIMBYism results in not only a lack of impetus, but actual push-back against the development of rational housing policy.

Ipso · 10-08-2018 5:19pm

I'm sure the traffic would be great fun after all this building, Ireland needs to find a way to be less Dublin-centric.
Not a knock against Dublin but isn't there close to 30% of Irelands population there, increasing this is going to create a lot of problems.

James Brown · 10-08-2018 5:30pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

Because some tree hugging nimby crank will lodge objection after objection rather than let people find a solution to the housing crisis.

The apple project in Galway stands as a shining example.

Leave Leo alone he has selfies to take ffs.

Varadkar among objectors to plans for 41 new apartments
Leo Varadkar is one of a number of objectors against a new €10m apartment block plan in an area of Dublin he admits is being hit by the housing shortage.
Mr Varadkar said he was certain that the plan "will impact on the residential amenity and property values of neighbouring homes". He argued that "the application must be rejected in favour of a more appropriate residential or mixed-use development for this site".
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/varadkar-among-objectors-to-plans-for-41-new-apartments-35478127.html

Lusk_Doyle · 10-08-2018 5:32pm

detones wrote: »

"Fingal county provides around 55% of the country’s fresh produce, which includes soft fruits and berries, apples, lettuces, peppers, asparagus, potatoes, onions, and carrots."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/farming/agribusiness/the-flourishing-flavours-of-fingal-242443.html

So there would be places for people to live, but nothing left to eat.

Don't we eat our young out here?

yabadabado · 10-08-2018 5:44pm

If Metrolink is done correctly , it will open up huge swathes of land for development in NCD.
Water and severage infasture and amenties will need to be upgraded as well.
When all that is done then it would be perfect to start development. NCD wouldnt be able to handle large scale
Increase in population now as OP suggests
For now there needs to be high density building between the 2 canals. 15+ storey buildings.

The rural wilds of North Dublin- why not build?

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