Property Market 2019

awec · 11-02-2019 2:14pm

klaaaz wrote: »

Not so. Those with a good savings history with that hefty deposit will still get credit, just like in the last crash. Lending from banks back then for mortgages was reduced not wiped out.

Yes. It was reduced.

The reason property prices drop is because it is difficult to get credit.

If property prices drop a little bit, it's because getting credit has got a little bit more difficult.

If they drop a lot, it's because getting credit has got a lot more difficult.

The reason property prices dropped so much last time was most people couldn't get credit to buy.

The biggest benefactors of a big, fast drop are cash buyers and investors, who'll be laughing. For the average person, not so great a scenario.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 11-02-2019 2:14pm

klaaaz wrote: »

Not so. Those with a good savings history with that hefty deposit will still get credit, just like in the last crash. Lending from banks back then for mortgages was reduced not wiped out.

I work with mortgages so I'll just take my own opinion on this one.

Cuddlesworth · 11-02-2019 2:19pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I work with mortgages so I'll just take my own opinion on this one.

I don't think increasing the LTI ration during a market slowdown/crash makes sense from a risk perspective. The risk of significant income loss is much higher for dual income earners. Twice as likely really.

tobsey · 11-02-2019 2:43pm

awec wrote: »

Yes. It was reduced.

The reason property prices drop is because it is difficult to get credit.

If property prices drop a little bit, it's because getting credit has got a little bit more difficult.

If they drop a lot, it's because getting credit has got a lot more difficult.

The reason property prices dropped so much last time was most people couldn't get credit to buy.

The biggest benefactors of a big, fast drop are cash buyers and investors, who'll be laughing. For the average person, not so great a scenario.

The main reason proces dropped so much last time was people were over extended, with 100% interest only mortgages on multiple properties, that the banks then closed in on. The owners had no choice but to sell, therefore prices plummeted. The lending rules this time mean that there is much more equity in property so that there is less likely to be a firesale and therefore less likely they will fall dramatically. There might be a small reduction in values, but not at the level seen in the crash. That was the only time in history that houses values dropped at that rate. Even in recessions before then property didn't collapse in the same way. There's no reason to believe it would happen during the next recession.

Nobodysrobots · 11-02-2019 2:57pm

awec wrote: »

The biggest benefactors of a big, fast drop are cash buyers and investors, who'll be laughing. For the average person, not so great a scenario.

Big, fast drops are very rare in the property market even in the worst recession in the State's history, the biggest single year drop was 13.6% in 2012 (open to correction on this).

You're assuming these canny investors can call the bottom of the market accurately. What happened during the recession from 2008-2013 was, nobody was buying because if they waited a year they could get a double-digit % discount on the current price.
The people who can call the top/bottom of markets accurately are most likely already rich and have information the wider public aren't aware of yet. As an example, I find the behaviour and recent activity by international REITs, pouring billions into the Irish property market at a time of (generally perceived) uncertainty a little suspicious.

Bob24 · 11-02-2019 3:50pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I work with mortgages so I'll just take my own opinion on this one.

I can definitly confirm that it was no problem to get mortgage approval during the recession if you had decent savings and a full time permanent position with decent salary.

Plenty of mid level IT/finance workers in my circle did get approvals and as a matter of fact banks would welcome safe enough borrowers with open arms as they were desperate for more business at higher rates than tracker mortgages.

Reduced lending wasn’t really due to banks having more drastic lending criteria compared to nowadays (they didn’t), it was more than less people did meet those criteria. But there was no issue for those who did.

Pussyhands · 11-02-2019 4:45pm

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

Big, fast drops are very rare in the property market even in the worst recession in the State's history, the biggest single year drop was 13.6% in 2012 (open to correction on this).

It's all relative obviously....

Samuel T. Cogley · 11-02-2019 6:30pm

Having had the displeasure but also good luck to be in a position to buy during the 'crash' it was slim pickin's for sure. People stayed put.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 11-02-2019 7:03pm

Bob24 wrote: »

I can definitly confirm that it was no problem to get mortgage approval during the recession if you had decent savings and a full time permanent position with decent salary.

Plenty of mid level IT/finance workers in my circle did get approvals and as a matter of fact banks would welcome safe enough borrowers with open arms as they were desperate for more business at higher rates than tracker mortgages.

Reduced lending wasn’t really due to banks having more drastic lending criteria compared to nowadays (they didn’t), it was more than less people did meet those criteria. But there was no issue for those who did.

I said struggle, I didn't say impossible.

Seems to be no middle ground with this thread, an all or nothing approach taken by both sides. :rolleyes:

Bob24 · 12-02-2019 11:28am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I said struggle, I didn't say impossible.

Seems to be no middle ground with this thread, an all or nothing approach taken by both sides. :rolleyes:

You said “those hoping to buy in a drop will struggle to get finance at all”.

As I was saying, there is a decent group of people for which the above statement didn’t apply the last time around (many of them in my group of friends/colleagues including myself). Which is why I don’t think putting everyone in the same basket and saying they’ll struggle to get finance at all is a moderate a statement about what would happen.

I also don’t think I offered an all or nothing view, as I clearly stated the total amount of borrowing would indeed drop due to less people meeting the bank’s lending criteria.

klaaaz · 12-02-2019 1:05pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I said struggle, I didn't say impossible.

Seems to be no middle ground with this thread, an all or nothing approach taken by both sides. :rolleyes:

Have a look at the Irish Banking Federation stats on mortgage lending over the last decade, they still lent to first time buyers and movers at the time. It was much reduced, but that reduction was from crazy unsustainable levels of around 2005/6. Lots of occupations unrelated to the fallout of the crash, who had met the criteria of being prudent and have some job security were able to borrow for a mortgage.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 12-02-2019 3:03pm

klaaaz wrote: »

Have a look at the Irish Banking Federation stats on mortgage lending over the last decade, they still lent to first time buyers and movers at the time. It was much reduced, but that reduction was from crazy unsustainable levels of around 2005/6. Lots of occupations unrelated to the fallout of the crash, who had met the criteria of being prudent and have some job security were able to borrow for a mortgage.

Completely agree, I remember friends buying at the depths in 2012.

L1011 · 12-02-2019 3:17pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Completely agree, I remember friends buying at the depths in 2012.

Look back at the old threads here, there was a panic on to draw down by the end of 2012 to get MIR/TRS, fairly significant number of posters were buying with mortgages at the time.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 12-02-2019 3:37pm

L1011 wrote: »

Look back at the old threads here, there was a panic on to draw down by the end of 2012 to get MIR/TRS, fairly significant number of posters were buying with mortgages at the time.

Yeah I see that, I'd imagine not as many as are drawing them down now though, looking at the Saving/Applying for a mortgage 2015/16/17/18/19 thread.

tobsey · 12-02-2019 3:45pm

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/IBF-PwC+Mortgage+Market+Profile+Q1+2013.pdf

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q3-2018-for-website.pdf

The first link gives the total drawdowns in 2012, 15881. Now over 6000 of those came in the last quarter presumably to get the TRS. However compare that to 2018 where it looks like 40,000 will be drawn down. So it was only 37% of todays lending by volume so yes it was small, but it was still a reasonable number.

Edit: Attached also is approvals per year, bottomed out in 2011 at about 13,000.

12-02-2019 4:19pm

In 2009 I got mortgage of 320,000 with a 70,000+ deposit. I could have had more.
Now, I have 250,000+ deposit, I can get 175,000 mortgage, hopefully a bit more if I get an exemption.
It's much harder now, in my experience.

el Fenomeno · 12-02-2019 5:22pm

Not sure if suitable for this thread, but if I have my eyes on a development that has already had 1 or 2 (successful) phases launched and sold out, and I know that people were queuing well before the official launch e-mail went out (more people than there were houses available) - how can I compete with that? Considering I don't live near the location, and don't know anybody involved on-site or even any locals - am I just shít out of luck and need to suck it up?

Zenify · 12-02-2019 6:10pm

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Not sure if suitable for this thread, but if I have my eyes on a development that has already had 1 or 2 (successful) phases launched and sold out, and I know that people were queuing well before the official launch e-mail went out (more people than there were houses available) - how can I compete with that? Considering I don't live near the location, and don't know anybody involved on-site or even any locals - am I just shít out of luck and need to suck it up?

What development? There are a few threads on specific developments.

Zenify · 14-02-2019 1:11pm

The Upside of a Global Downturn? Juicy Real Estate Deals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/real-estate-deals-are-one-upside-of-a-global-downturn

Dublin is mentioned in the article. That expensive properties in places like D4 are falling.

optogirl · 14-02-2019 1:27pm

I have definitely noticed an increase in supply under 270k in Dublin 7 - I have been signed up to alerts from Daft & MYHOME.IE and was getting very few over the last year or so. I got about 6 in the past 2 weeks

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 1:46pm

optogirl wrote: »

I have definitely noticed an increase in supply under 270k in Dublin 7 - I have been signed up to alerts from Daft & MYHOME.IE and was getting very few over the last year or so. I got about 6 in the past 2 weeks

How long do houses generally be advertised before a deal is struck if there is interest? There's an apartment I have my eye on out of interest, the price isn't absolutely outrageous imo but it's been up about 6 weeks I'd say if not more and it has 2k views on daft.

I would have thought in this market at the price it would be sold by now.

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 1:46pm

Also when will the January figures be released?

Bob24 · 14-02-2019 2:39pm

CSO figures for December are out: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2018/

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 3:14pm

Bob24 wrote: »

CSO figures for December are out: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2018/

Makes me sick

Zenify · 14-02-2019 3:50pm

Bob24 wrote: »

CSO figures for December are out: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2018/

Did property prices fall in November and December of last year?

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 4:04pm

Zenify wrote: »

Did property prices fall in November and December of last year?

Looks like they fell .1%

Bluefoam · 14-02-2019 4:04pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Makes me sick

What makes you sick? the fact that people wanted to buy houses and then bought houses? Or the fact that you didn't buy a house?

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 4:08pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

What makes you sick? the fact that people wanted to buy houses and then bought houses? Or the fact that you didn't buy a house?

Yeah I'm sick that I could have made almost 100% profit in 7 years.

Bluefoam · 14-02-2019 4:13pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Yeah I'm sick that I could have made almost 100% profit in 7 years.

You should have... Just shows, some people make the right descisions at the right time, others don't. I should have been a millionaire five times over, but I'm not.

JohnCleary · 14-02-2019 4:15pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Yeah I'm sick that I could have made almost 100% profit in 7 years.

There were better returns than that.

I'm aware of one Galway City example - purchased in 2011, sold in 2018 for 3 times the purchase price.... that's the market, I guess!

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 4:21pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

You should have... Just shows, some people make the right descisions at the right time, others don't. I should have been a millionaire five times over, but I'm not.

Considering I was in college at the time, think it would have been impossible.

Bluefoam · 14-02-2019 4:26pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Considering I was in college at the time, think it would have been impossible.

Well then what are you moaning about... ?

If I'd invested my 0 money in Apple stocks I's still be broke, WTF...?

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 4:33pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Well then what are you moaning about... ?

If I'd invested my 0 money in Apple stocks I's still be broke, WTF...?

Can a man not be jealous????

mkdon · 14-02-2019 5:05pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can a man not be jealous????

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

Pussyhands · 14-02-2019 5:08pm

mkdon wrote: »

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

In Dublin region prices are up 94% from their low...

Zenify · 14-02-2019 5:19pm

mkdon wrote: »

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

From my reading of it that was a national decline: -.1 and -.3 for November and December.

cruizer101 · 14-02-2019 5:47pm

Slightly down yeah, but the same happened end of 2015 and 2016, end of year is quiet period. I wouldn't read too much into it when it is just one or two months.

Bluefoam · 14-02-2019 6:28pm

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

Sheeps · 14-02-2019 9:36pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

I know you meant that as a joke but I'm literally considering rising sea level when looking for a home.

Bluefoam · 14-02-2019 10:42pm

Sheeps wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

I know you meant that as a joke but I'm literally considering rising sea level when looking for a home.

I meant it tongue in cheek, but it's a reality.

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:34pm

tobsey wrote: »

The main reason proces dropped so much last time was people were over extended, with 100% interest only mortgages on multiple properties, that the banks then closed in on. The owners had no choice but to sell, therefore prices plummeted. The lending rules this time mean that there is much more equity in property so that there is less likely to be a firesale and therefore less likely they will fall dramatically. There might be a small reduction in values, but not at the level seen in the crash. That was the only time in history that houses values dropped at that rate. Even in recessions before then property didn't collapse in the same way. There's no reason to believe it would happen during the next recession.

The drops from 2007 to 2012 were not replicated anywhere else at any time this past several decades, resort locations in Spain may have dropped 60% but Madrid and Barcelona didn't

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:38pm

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

Big, fast drops are very rare in the property market even in the worst recession in the State's history, the biggest single year drop was 13.6% in 2012 (open to correction on this).

You're assuming these canny investors can call the bottom of the market accurately. What happened during the recession from 2008-2013 was, nobody was buying because if they waited a year they could get a double-digit % discount on the current price.
The people who can call the top/bottom of markets accurately are most likely already rich and have information the wider public aren't aware of yet. As an example, I find the behaviour and recent activity by international REITs, pouring billions into the Irish property market at a time of (generally perceived) uncertainty a little suspicious.

2012 was not the biggest drop, in fact houses rose in value in parts of Dublin in 2012 ( even sale registration wasn't officially recorded until 2013) and dropped nowhere in Dublin that year, spring 2012 was the bottom in Dublin, it took until mid 2013 for Cork and Galway city to bottom

2008 saw the largest fall ( 20%)from spring 2007 ( peak) to mid 2009 was a near 40 % drop with the remaining 18% fall spread over 2010 and 2011

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:42pm

Bob24 wrote: »

I can definitly confirm that it was no problem to get mortgage approval during the recession if you had decent savings and a full time permanent position with decent salary.

Plenty of mid level IT/finance workers in my circle did get approvals and as a matter of fact banks would welcome safe enough borrowers with open arms as they were desperate for more business at higher rates than tracker mortgages.

Reduced lending wasn’t really due to banks having more drastic lending criteria compared to nowadays (they didn’t), it was more than less people did meet those criteria. But there was no issue for those who did.

Getting mortgage approval was extremely hard unless you had at least 30% of a deposit until about 2014

Calltocall · 14-02-2019 11:42pm

I’ve been doing a bit of research into the difference between property prices in Dublin at the height of boom to what they are now, roughly what percentage of a difference are we talking?

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:44pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Completely agree, I remember friends buying at the depths in 2012.

A big problem too waa estate agents hated selling cheap houses to people they didn't know, the real dirt cheap stuff in good locations was kept for those with friends in property

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:48pm

JohnCleary wrote: »

There were better returns than that.

I'm aware of one Galway City example - purchased in 2011, sold in 2018 for 3 times the purchase price.... that's the market, I guess!

Apartments in ****ty parts of Limerick city could be bought for 30 k several years ago if you bought four or five of them, they are worth about 90k today, not remotely typical, bar back of beyond rural locations or crime ridden urban ones, tripping of prices does not happen

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:51pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

In Dublin region prices are up 94% from their low...

Two bed terraced houses in oxmantown Road stoneybatter were circa 220 k in summer 2012, your talking 390 k today, they were renting for 1100 per month the same summer

Mad_maxx · 14-02-2019 11:53pm

Calltocall wrote: »

I’ve been doing a bit of research into the difference between property prices in Dublin at the height of boom to what they are now, roughly what percentage of a difference are we talking?

South Dublin is max 10% off

14-02-2019 11:57pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Getting mortgage approval was extremely hard unless you had at least 30% of a deposit until about 2014

I had no issues getting 320,000 Euro mortgage in 2009, & I was approved for more.
There's not a chance of me getting the same now & I have four times the deposit I had then!

JohnCleary · 14-02-2019 11:59pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Apartments in ****ty parts of Limerick city could be bought for 30 k several years ago if you bought four or five of them, they are worth about 90k today, not remotely typical, bar back of beyond rural locations or crime ridden urban ones, tripping of prices does not happen

I'm not talking about Limerick, as mentioned above i'm talking about Galway City Centre.

Solid build, excellent location (city centre), solid management company in place.... issue was that it was 2011 and damn all cash around. Every apartment in the complex (for sale), sold on the day. They were genuine bargains. In the few years alone from purchase to sale, the rent almost paid the purchase price (gross), and then sold for triple (purchase) price a few years later.

Each of these units were for sale individually, no bulk purchase necessary. No inside info needed, this was a (very) public auction.

Property Market 2019

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