Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)

Friday's looking like the worst day rainwise, but with such a dynamic situation in the the breeding ground for these systems upstream off the northeast US /Canadian coast, minor shifts will have huge consequences on what we get here. I would take anything outside 48hrs with a pinch of salt this week.

This week is one where the likes of yr.no and weatheronline, etc. forecasts will be chopping and changing several times a day as each model run comes out. Some people here won't like to hear that! :cool:

Interesting set up alright.

Tonight's ECM run is showing this low deepening to the NW of Ireland by almost 30 mb in the 24hr period between 18z Thursday and 18z Friday:

Thursday evening forecast:



Friday Evening:



the same model had the same forecast low moving right in over Ireland and deepening explosively while sitting right over the country which was not plausable at all.

Will be interesting to see how this develops in reality!

It will be interesting indeed, as the Rosenbloom Rule of forecasting states that bomb cyclones like this one will follow a track to the left of the forecast model track, so we can expect it to end up even a bit further away from us. How things can go from good to bad in the space of a few hours!! :rolleyes:

I wonder how much it will have changed by thurday.

Personally I would just like the Azores high to miraculously move up over us.

maquiladora wrote: »

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

How could I forget....

Days before it, Met Eireann warned of a storm, then on the day of the storm near nothing about it, heard reports on the news of slates coming off buildings in Cork, at 5pm it hit us and I was out feeding cows, I watched as it tore the roof of a neighbours house like it was a sheet of paper, electricity and phone went - I went to see the elderly neighbours, went into the wind to avoid another shed as it was rattling in the wind, saw the neighbours they were ok.
When I came back the roof was gone off one of my own buildings - we are on a hill exposed directly to the storm.
The wind was so strong you could lean forward in it and the wind would hold you or even push you back in a gust.

We had turkey's and we didn't get to clean them all out, Christmas day was revealing as the damage was bad and there was another storm that day but it was nothing compared the previous day. We had the most unusual Christmas dinner - normal but it was like going back decades due to no power. After dinner my mother started cleaning out the rest of the turkeys for the freezer for when the power came back.
We had given up hope of getting any power back but at 5:15pm it came back - no internet for over a week, really missed that.
I could do without seeing a destructive storm like that again.

Was it the following year there was the St Stephen's day storm?

I like the UKMO 12z 120hrs chart:



Not altogether disimilar to the situation that was to lead onto the 'great strom' over the south of the UK in 1987:

Very unusual to have the Fax forecast based entirely on the UKMO run so far out, as usually it tends to consider output from other models such as the ECM etc to get a sense of longer term trend.

Perhaps they are onto something??

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Very unusual to have the Fax forecast based entirely on the UKMO run so far out, as usually it tends to consider output from other models such as the ECM etc to get a sense of longer term trend.

??? What do you mean? Isn't that particular chart above just the UKMO FAX chart based on that model's output? There are others like the ECMWF, German, etc. but I don't think any one chart is based on more than one model. I stand to be corrected though.

http://www2.wetter3.de/fax.html

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Isn't that what I just said The UK fax charts are human considered and produced, and not necessarly entirely based on the UKMO, but what the forecasters in the UK met office consider the be the most likely outcome from a number of runs.

Of course, I can't prove this via a link but I have read this many times before in the past; but this may well be just learned ignorance though...

No I'm sure you're right, I just thought the FAX charts were each model's output in a black and white shipping format suitable for faxing, I didn't know there was human input based on several models.

Ya learn something new every day!:)