Property Market 2018

castle2012 · 01-01-2018 12:26am #1

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

padd b1975 · 01-01-2018 1:10am

Hoping for another year of increases and waving goodbye to ten years of negative equity.

VonBeanie · 01-01-2018 8:02am

After 1 year of RPZ, rental inflation continues. Making it illegal to discriminate against social welfare tenants has not made it any easier for social housing tenants to find accommodation in the private rented sector. Increasing house completions have not been extensive enough to halt house price inflation (especially in the first time buyer end of the market).

I hope for change in 2018, but expect to be posting the same post this time next year.

Henbabani · 01-01-2018 8:09am

i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.

Averagevegan · 01-01-2018 11:47am

Investor properties will probably peak and possible fall this year.
Family 3 bed semi-D another double digit year
Trophy Houses serious price growth ~20%

Loads of media headlines about how unsustainable it is. but in reality there will be lots of ex-rentals on the market at low prices for people to buy.

sunnyday1234 · 01-01-2018 12:56pm

hoping for my rented house to be worth 250k this year and its going on the market right away then. Identical houses in estate currently going for "offers in excess of 230k" so i am hoping to be able to give my tenants notice in Nov 2018 and put on market in Feb 2019

The old greed is kicking in though as people are saying "hold on to it , it will keep going up". But myself and the wife made a decision a few years back to sell at 250k and thats it

kippy · 01-01-2018 1:02pm

Henbabani wrote: »

i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.

I wouldn't be so cheerful about those double digit growths not happening, those percentages growths are still massive in real terms.

Henbabani · 01-01-2018 1:10pm

kippy wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.

I wouldn't be so cheerful about those double digit growths not happening, those percentages growths are still massive in real terms.

I know, but as a person i always try to look on the positive side, in the last quarter prices increased by only 1% or a bit more, that's really good and reflected 4-5% yearly increase, which is good also, and maybe with all those articles talking about massive increase in building we may see decrease in the prices.

Graham · 01-01-2018 1:33pm

Henbabani wrote: »

with all those articles talking about massive increase in building

What articles?

LirW · 01-01-2018 1:47pm

There is no massive building, the building that's happening is either social housing built by NGOs and family housing to drip-feed the market. In the Dublin area this mainly accommodates a market that's quite high in price for FTBs. Affordable housing is being built in commuter counties and even there the prices are pretty high in comparison.
Last thing I've seen is the whipping up of a development in Gorey with starting prices of 300k.

handlemaster · 01-01-2018 5:26pm

No matter what happens in 2018 all fingers will point at the landlord. I expect to see more government actions trying to heat off of them by getting the public attention on landlords. Perhaps a super tax on landlord property sales or some such nonsence.

Henbabani · 02-01-2018 8:50am

"[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]

Averagevegan · 02-01-2018 9:01am

Henbabani wrote: »

"[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]

I would guess it's more affordable ex-rental entering the market rather than property becoming cheaper.
Without more detailed numbers it would be impossible to be sure

Henbabani · 02-01-2018 10:35am

Headline from daft report for 2017 property market which says everything i guess
"[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]Almost no change in house prices in second half of 2017 - but it doesn't mean a bubble has burst"[/font]

[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]http://www.daft.ie/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Q4-2017-House-price-report.pdf[/font]

Rothmans · 02-01-2018 11:27am

Henbabani wrote: »

Headline from daft report for 2017 property market which says everything i guess
"[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]Almost no change in house prices in second half of 2017 - but it doesn't mean a bubble has burst"[/font]

[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]http://www.daft.ie/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Q4-2017-House-price-report.pdf[/font]

Slowdown in the market? Or is supply finally starting to meet demand? Or are people finally maxed out as a result of the central bank rules? It'll be an interesting year for sure.

Edit: I'm somewhat taken aback that prices are starting to falter (however slight) in the regions also, as I wouldn't have thought that the CB rules would have started to curtail things there yet.

davidmarsh · 02-01-2018 11:53am

Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.

02-01-2018 11:56am

Henbabani wrote: »

"[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]

Interesting if things have stabilised. I see three identical ex-rental semidetached houses for sale in my estate in the last 3 months.

I wonder if the landlords think prices have topped and its a good time to get out?

02-01-2018 12:00pm

davidmarsh wrote: »

Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.

Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.

"If you dont buy now youll never be able to afford a house"...... Iv friends that got absolutely scorched by shyster estate agents, builders and property pushing media :mad:

Graham · 02-01-2018 12:35pm

Henbabani wrote: »

"According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."

Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.

According to the chief economist at Davy:

Asking prices have fallen in the final quarter of each of the last five years before bouncing back in the spring and we see that pattern continuing in 2018

Personally I don't expect prices to drop in 2018. Demand is still significantly outstripping supply and mortgage approvals are increasing.

I do expect increases at the upper middle end of the market to be tempered slightly as central bank ceilings are hit.

Wanderer78 · 02-01-2018 12:42pm

Topgear on Dave wrote:

Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.

I'd be a bit of a fan of Ronan Lyons, I think he's more concerned about the lack of supply and the overall homeless situation, he has been warning about it for nearly ten years now, along with people such as Tom Lyons etc.

B00MSTICK · 02-01-2018 12:43pm

I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.

Askthe EA · 02-01-2018 3:52pm

B00MSTICK wrote: »

Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.

Thats how they do it, they fill their boots in Q1 and wait for the rest of the year for it to balance out.

murphaph · 02-01-2018 6:03pm

B00MSTICK wrote: »

I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.

I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.

Samuel T. Cogley · 03-01-2018 7:01am

One thing danced around in that report but it seems there reading between the lines is exemptions being given out at the start of the year. We'll see the same again this year with the first half showing growth in prices and then the latter half of 2018 doing the same as this year. It's symptomatic of affordability being non-existent within the CB rules; which should not be changed. Prediction for 2018 8.8% growth.

Incidentally we've seen 63K* go on to our modest house (bought for around 275K in early 2015), so I think some of the 'less desirable' areas near to 'desirable' areas are beginning to see some pressure.

*Valued for the sake of changing mortgage to a fixed rate. Edit: And lower LTV - worth checking out if you've had your mortgage more than 24 months or so.

Samuel T. Cogley · 03-01-2018 7:05am

murphaph wrote: »

I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.

Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.

handlemaster · 03-01-2018 7:43am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.

Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.

Revenue will be loving that. More money for them

Samuel T. Cogley · 03-01-2018 9:09am

handlemaster wrote: »

Revenue will be loving that. More money for them

That's the crux of it in my opinion and why they're not interested in fixing it.

The_Conductor · 03-01-2018 10:19pm

We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........

KellyXX · 05-01-2018 9:25am

We have been and still are looking for a while now and all I can see is that asking prices are far lower than the bids on the properties, in Dublin anyway.

You see what you think is a good asking price. Then find out that there are bids of 20% above it already. It's the same story every time.

And even some that have been on the market for many months are holding out for even higher bids. People are happy to leave them on the market and wait til they get the bid they want it would seem, even while sitting on bids of way over asking as it is.

koheim · 05-01-2018 9:55am

The_Conductor wrote: »

We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........

Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.

Rothmans · 05-01-2018 10:52am

koheim wrote: »

Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.

I think you might be giving Irish banks a bit too much credit!! :P

Earleybird · 05-01-2018 10:52am

koheim wrote: »

Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.

Mortgage rates are as low as they can get due to the level of non-performance on the Balance Sheets, and banks aren't interested in making "housing a lot cheaper", they are concerned with maximising shareholder value. The repossession steps required in this country are quite cumbersome which means it takes years before a bank can realise cash on some assets. Without changes to the legal process there is no way rates will come down "significantly", not a chance! I think we're just about bottomed out in the interest rate space here, so I wouldn't be expecting any big savings if that's what you're holding out for. You can expect them to go up.

koheim · 05-01-2018 11:20am

Earleybird wrote: »

koheim wrote: »

Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.

Mortgage rates are as low as they can get due to the level of non-performance on the Balance Sheets, and banks aren't interested in making "housing a lot cheaper", they are concerned with maximising shareholder value. The repossession steps required in this country are quite cumbersome which means it takes years before a bank can realise cash on some assets. Without changes to the legal process there is no way rates will come down "significantly", not a chance! I think we're just about bottomed out in the interest rate space here, so I wouldn't be expecting any big savings if that's what you're holding out for. You can expect them to go up.

It seems like most people are defending the Bank's high interest rates, and I do not understand why. Cheaper credit would benefit everyone. Also, the Banks were actually bailed out already for the mistakes they did pre 2009, I doubt that there are many mortgages starting after 2009 in Arrears?. The pre 2009 has been dealt with in the bail out, but still Banks are using this excuse to collectivly (like a cartel) keeping morgage interest rates artificial high, it is like an extra tax at this stage.

The_Conductor · 05-01-2018 11:28am

koheim wrote: »

It seems like most people are defending the Bank's high interest rates, and I do not understand why. Cheaper credit would benefit everyone. Also, the Banks were actually bailed out already for the mistakes they did pre 2009, I doubt that there are many mortgages starting after 2009 in Arrears?. The pre 2009 has been dealt with in the bail out, but still Banks are using this excuse to collectivly (like a cartel) keeping morgage interest rates artificial high, it is like an extra tax at this stage.

We're not defending Irish banking institutions high interest rates- we're explaining them- there is a vast difference.
I could get a mortgage tomorrow in any other EU country- at a lower interest rate than here- because the cost of lenders doing business here- is so much higher- particularly when you factor non-performing loans into the equation- than in any other EU country.

Even now- we have 10% of all mortgages in an impaired state- versus a 'normal' level of between 3 and 4% (and this is despite instructions from the ECB to get our houses in order).

Bank valuations are going up- and shareholders have a reasonable expectation of getting a return on their investment.

Keeping 10% of non-performing loans on their balance sheets- has a cost- a cost that the good customers of Irish financial institutions have to pay.

If you want Irish interest rates to come down- it implies you normalise banking practices in this country- which implies vastly loosening the ability of lenders to repossess properties with non-performing loans in lien on them- and in the case of the residential letting sector- vastly enhancing the ability of landlords to gain vacant possession of properties with overholding tenants (regardless of whether, or not, they are paying their rent).

The high cost of loans in Ireland- is a direct response of government action in Ireland- which safeguards people in their homes, both owners and tenants- regardless of whether or not they are paying their way. Thats all well and good- however, there is a cost associated with this- a cost that the normal borrowers of this country are forced to pay.

Earleybird · 05-01-2018 11:28am

koheim wrote: »

It seems like most people are defending the Bank's high interest rates, and I do not understand why. Cheaper credit would benefit everyone. Also, the Banks were actually bailed out already for the mistakes they did pre 2009, I doubt that there are many mortgages starting after 2009 in Arrears?. The pre 2009 has been dealt with in the bail out, but still Banks are using this excuse to collectivly (like a cartel) keeping morgage interest rates artificial high, it is like an extra tax at this stage.

I don't think people are defending banks, that's just the reality. I think you've probably got a bit caught up in conspiracy theories. I can tell you now that there are also thousands of mortgages which originated after 2009 in arrears. I'm not sure you fully understand though, what would cheaper credit do? Are you aware of the factors which created the last crisis?

Bob24 · 05-01-2018 12:33pm

Graham wrote: »

According to the chief economist at Davy:

Personally I don't expect prices to drop in 2018. Demand is still significantly outstripping supply and mortgage approvals are increasing.

I do expect increases at the upper middle end of the market to be tempered slightly as central bank ceilings are hit.

Yes it’s the same thing every year. Things cool down from September in as mortgage exceptions get depleted, and then the number of potential buyers falls gradually as those who wanted a place before the start of school are sorted, and people get in Christmas planning mood and enjoy their end of year holiday.

It then picks-up again a few weeks after Christmas.

That’s my experience anyway.

The_Conductor · 05-01-2018 1:09pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes it’s the same thing every year. Things cool down from September in as mortgage exceptions get depleted, and then the number of potential buyers falls gradually as those who wanted a place before the start of school are sorted, and people get in Christmas planning mood and enjoy their end of year holiday.

It then picks-up again a few weeks after Christmas.

That’s my experience anyway.

Yup- its a seasonal thing.
No particular reason to believe this year is any different- its following a pattern well established over the past years..........

KellyXX · 05-01-2018 1:24pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes it’s the same thing every year. Things cool down from September in as mortgage exceptions get depleted, and then the number of potential buyers falls gradually as those who wanted a place before the start of school are sorted, and people get in Christmas planning mood and enjoy their end of year holiday.

It then picks-up again a few weeks after Christmas.

That’s my experience anyway.

That's always been the pattern. It's not just because of excemptions

The Student · 05-01-2018 2:35pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

We're not defending Irish banking institutions high interest rates- we're explaining them- there is a vast difference.
I could get a mortgage tomorrow in any other EU country- at a lower interest rate than here- because the cost of lenders doing business here- is so much higher- particularly when you factor non-performing loans into the equation- than in any other EU country.

Even now- we have 10% of all mortgages in an impaired state- versus a 'normal' level of between 3 and 4% (and this is despite instructions from the ECB to get our houses in order).

Bank valuations are going up- and shareholders have a reasonable expectation of getting a return on their investment.

Keeping 10% of non-performing loans on their balance sheets- has a cost- a cost that the good customers of Irish financial institutions have to pay.

If you want Irish interest rates to come down- it implies you normalise banking practices in this country- which implies vastly loosening the ability of lenders to repossess properties with non-performing loans in lien on them- and in the case of the residential letting sector- vastly enhancing the ability of landlords to gain vacant possession of properties with overholding tenants (regardless of whether, or not, they are paying their rent).

The high cost of loans in Ireland- is a direct response of government action in Ireland- which safeguards people in their homes, both owners and tenants- regardless of whether or not they are paying their way. Thats all well and good- however, there is a cost associated with this- a cost that the normal borrowers of this country are forced to pay.

Completely agree, the sooner we regularize our housing sector the better for all involved. We have this bizarre notion that everybody should be housed where they want no matter what and they should not be held accountable for their actions.

It's society's responsibility to give them what they want.

Colonel Claptrap · 05-01-2018 4:16pm

koheim wrote: »

Also, the Banks were actually bailed out already for the mistakes they did pre 2009, I doubt that there are many mortgages starting after 2009 in Arrears?. The pre 2009 has been dealt with in the bail out, but still Banks are using this excuse to collectivly (like a cartel) keeping morgage interest rates artificial high, it is like an extra tax at this stage.

Banks didn't clear their books in 2009 and start fresh. People defaulted and continue to default every day.

Also not all bad debts were packaged up and bailed out. Only those in severe difficulty with little to no chance of restarting repayments.

The bulk of this bad debt was commercial loans. Mortgage debt was only part of the bailout.

karenalot · 05-01-2018 5:47pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes it’s the same thing every year. Things cool down from September in as mortgage exceptions get depleted, and then the number of potential buyers falls gradually as those who wanted a place before the start of school are sorted, and people get in Christmas planning mood and enjoy their end of year holiday.

It then picks-up again a few weeks after Christmas.

That’s my experience anyway.

The central bank also relaxed the rules in Jan 2017 for first time buyers to only need a 10% overall deposit. Previously they needed 20% on anything over 220k. Coupled in with the Help to Buy scheme I’d imagine this added quite a few new buyers at the beginning of the year.

missmatty · 05-01-2018 5:55pm

We've been looking 2 years and there was a definite big upswing in the amount of other people looking from early 2017.

I wish to god now that we had bought one of the first 5 houses we viewed, we were too picky and it took us a while to decide what & where we really wanted to buy. Meanwhile I would say the price difference in properties is 20k higher than it was when we started.

enricoh · 05-01-2018 9:17pm

Talking to a commuter belt estate agent today and he was saying it has definitely plateau'd (is that a word?!) Out the last 5 months or so.
He has a few new developments to sell and was saying they are selling slowly, nobody queuing up etc. The builders can only get finance off glorified loan sharks at big interest rates and the loan sharks are the real ones making the money.

Coupled with the fact that home sellers are believing the hype and think they'll get an extra 10 or 15 % next year so hold off.

FutureGuy · 06-01-2018 5:46pm

http://www.thejournal.ie/property-prices-2018-3784492-Jan2018/

What are people’s thoughts here? Predictions for increases through this year, with Limerick suburbs expecting up to a 20% rise?

Bob24 · 06-01-2018 6:04pm

FutureGuy wrote: »

http://www.thejournal.ie/property-prices-2018-3784492-Jan2018/

What are people’s thoughts here? Predictions for increases through this year, with Limerick suburbs expecting up to a 20% rise?

I get the rational for their forecasts and they might well be correct if things keep going the year the same way as they did last year, but I guess the problem with those predictions is that they get it more or less right year after year ... until they get it horribly wrong because their assumptions are made wrong due to some circonstances they didn’t or couldn’t see coming.

Henbabani · 06-01-2018 8:53pm

FutureGuy wrote: »

http://www.thejournal.ie/property-prices-2018-3784492-Jan2018/

What are people’s thoughts here? Predictions for increases through this year, with Limerick suburbs expecting up to a 20% rise?

That's the same assumption that predict 12-15% increase in 2017?

I don't think it's going to happened, people spoke about 12-15% increase this year but we finished with less than 9%, which still big increase, people start to understand that massive jobs will not come from London to Dublin, supply start to face demand, maybe this year or the next is the last time we'll see big increases in the coming years.

Averagevegan · 06-01-2018 9:03pm

Henbabani wrote: »

That's the same assumption that predict 12-15% increase in 2017?
I don't think it's going to happened, people spoke about 12-15% increase this year but we finished with less than 9%, which still big increase, people start to understand that massive jobs will not come from London to Dublin, supply start to face demand, maybe this year or the next is the last time we'll see big increases in the coming years.

I think we will see 15% in d4. Prices in d4 have only increased ~5% p.a. for the last 2 years so there is room to catch up.

jsd1004 · 06-01-2018 9:09pm

Henbabani wrote: »

That's the same assumption that predict 12-15% increase in 2017?
I don't think it's going to happened, people spoke about 12-15% increase this year but we finished with less than 9%, which still big increase, people start to understand that massive jobs will not come from London to Dublin, supply start to face demand, maybe this year or the next is the last time we'll see big increases in the coming years.

In reality it was 20-25%. And rents are up the same.

Henbabani · 07-01-2018 8:32am

jsd1004 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

That's the same assumption that predict 12-15% increase in 2017?
I don't think it's going to happened, people spoke about 12-15% increase this year but we finished with less than 9%, which still big increase, people start to understand that massive jobs will not come from London to Dublin, supply start to face demand, maybe this year or the next is the last time we'll see big increases in the coming years.

In reality it was 20-25%. And rents are up the same.

when you split Dublin - only the city center saw 20.8% increase, south and north city saw 11%, west and north county saw 11% also, and south county only 5%, don't know where you see 25%.
the details from here:
https://www.daft.ie/report/2017-Q4-dafthouseprice-report.pdf

jsd1004 · 07-01-2018 10:27pm

Henbabani wrote: »

when you split Dublin - only the city center saw 20.8% increase, south and north city saw 11%, west and north county saw 11% also, and south county only 5%, don't know where you see 25%.
the details from here:
https://www.daft.ie/report/2017-Q4-dafthouseprice-report.pdf

Thats the Daft report. Ive seen 20-30% increase. The last quarter has been especially nuts. 2 bed apartments going for 440k. They would have been 300 max a year ago and that would have been generous. Student rooms are 7k per student year now. Were as little as 4k a year ago.

Bob24 · 07-01-2018 10:30pm

jsd1004 wrote: »

2 bed apartments going for 440k. They would have been 300 max a year ago and that would have been generous.

Which area? I've seen large increases in GCD, but nowhere near that. A 2 bed which was 400k 2 years ago would probably be 500k now, which is a big increase for 2 years but nothing like the yearly increase you are mentioning.

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