Your interpretation of this graph

euser1984 · 20-08-2018 10:50am #1

Hi,
Can anyone tell me exactly what these spikes are? is is stimulus input?

thanks

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth

Geuze · 21-08-2018 12:11am

This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

I advise you to read the primary data here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults/

You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

No, it's not.

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 12:15am

Geuze wrote: »

This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

I advise you to read the primary data here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults/

You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

No, it's not.

i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy

Geuze · 21-08-2018 12:23am

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2015SUM_SA_FitzGerald.pdf

This will help explain.

Geuze · 21-08-2018 9:09am

euser1984 wrote: »

i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy

Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.

El Tarangu · 21-08-2018 9:29am

I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:01pm

Geuze wrote: »

Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.

Is our gdp based on stimulus plans though? who really has any full confidence in the markets after 2008 to invest money

what about luas investment for example?

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:04pm

El Tarangu wrote: »

I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

I talked about it on the politics forum and nobody had a clue so hopefully i'll get help here

Bubbaclaus · 21-08-2018 9:08pm

Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:09pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.

and is that really growth?

did it bring any money in?

Bubbaclaus · 21-08-2018 9:10pm

euser1984 wrote: »

and is that really growth?

Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:11pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.

do you know what the spike in 2017 was?

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:31pm

alright

i've a few quotes from this article https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-gdp-growth-rate-3306016

"The GDP growth rate measures how fast the economy is growing. It does this by comparing one quarter of the country's gross domestic product to the previous quarter. GDP measures the economic output of a nation."

my opinion on the above quoted is that gdp is not a good insight to anything except ups and downs, based on the same things corporations use - quarterly profit reports

"The GDP growth rate is driven by the four components of GDP. The main driver of GDP growth is personal consumption. This includes the critical sector of retail sales. The second component is business investment, including construction and inventory levels. Government spending is the third driver of growth. Its largest categories are Social Security benefits, defense spending and Medicare benefits. The government often increases spending to jump start the economy during a recession. Fourth is net trade."

given that personal consumption and retail sales are the main drivers (assuming those people paid by stimulus projects) to gdp; it also means it's the first thing to go when things get sketchy. afaik most of the growth in the economy is based on retail sales atm
so i guess if the government has to implement more stimulus plans (perhaps on a grander scale in the future, if a bailout is possible

or given that the economy will dip again, is it a good idea that the people are giving all the money away to retailers (that may be offshore or use offshore services to hold the money); otherwise does it mean that every bodies euros become less valuable; while the government/ecb print to pay for services.

or would the money become less valuable automatically on an eu scale as opposed to international trading in different currencies

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 9:36pm

El Tarangu wrote: »

I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

this is where my interest on it has come from and i'm just trying to piece together the puzzle, but thinking out loud as much as everything else too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THAaIZmxfNA

Wanderer78 · 21-08-2018 10:44pm

I wouldn't get too hung up on metrics such as growth and GDP, they're very poor metrics of measuring the well being of a society, interesting thread though

euser1984 · 21-08-2018 11:20pm

i still want to know what the spike was in 2017 though

Geuze · 22-08-2018 10:21am

euser1984 wrote: »

i still want to know what the spike was in 2017 though

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/

Are you referring to the 7.6% growth rate as a spike?

GDP is no longer a good indicator of the standard of living in Ireland as it is heavily influenced by MNC activities/globalisation/IP, etc.

Geuze · 22-08-2018 10:23am

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

You can see the growth rates of each type of spending here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/expenditure/

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 2:33pm

Geuze wrote: »

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

You can see the growth rates of each type of spending here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/expenditure/

the bigger that blue rectangle then the worse the economy is it seems

the retailers are quick to drop and close doors when a dip comes

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 2:40pm

and people living it large in the current "good times" like to roll out dosh for products they desire

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 2:43pm

euser1984 wrote: »

and people living it large in the current "good times" like to roll out dosh for products they desire

my favorite economic phrase of the week, 'we cant get enough of what we dont need'!:)

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 4:17pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

my favorite economic phrase of the week, 'we cant get enough of what we dont need'!:)

true but it also runs the economy - at least "now" anyway!

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 4:19pm

euser1984 wrote: »

true but it also runs the economy - at least "now" anyway!

is it running it or ruining it?

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 4:20pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

is it running it or ruining it?

part and parcel but the consumers are ruining it for themselves atm and nobody else

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 4:22pm

however, they are not the only ones responsible but it is human nature - in business and consumers because business men are consumers too

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 4:27pm

euser1984 wrote: »

part and parcel but the consumers are ruining it for themselves atm and nobody else

does it need to be part and parcel, our planet is screaming at us to stop what we re currently doing, we re seriously endangering the survivability of future generations by continuing our current economic approaches, and we re running out of time. this is a lot more complex than the faults of individuals such as ourselves, even though we all play a part in these failures

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 4:37pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

does it need to be part and parcel, our planet is screaming at us to stop what we re currently doing, we re seriously endangering the survivability of future generations by continuing our current economic approaches, and we re running out of time. this is a lot more complex than the faults of individuals such as ourselves, even though we all play a part in these failures

it depends on how far away the problem is it seems

global warming is beginning to be noticed in ireland and innovation has happened in the nuclear power industry - there are organisations in place to put pressure on governments

the world health organisation are involved in this due to the effects global warming will have on populations

when crises happen, change happens. however it also includes dangerous rebel anti-state movements, and exist in ireland already, but particularly in italy

i can't say i know what the world will look like in 2030 but it will certainly be a lot different than it is now - whether better or worse, i don't know

the human race is overdue to be wiped out anyway i believe and just like nature always fights back and goes in circles it could be something as simple as a superbug

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 4:46pm

euser1984 wrote: »

it depends on how far away the problem is it seems

global warming is beginning to be noticed in ireland and innovation has happened in the nuclear power industry - there are organisations in place to put pressure on governments

the world health organisation are involved in this due to the effects global warming will have on populations

when crises happen, change happens. however it also includes dangerous rebel anti-state movements

i can't say i know what the world will look like in 2030 but it will certainly be a lot different than it is now - whether better or worse, i don't know

the human race is overdue to be wiped out anyway i believe and just like nature always fights back and goes in circles it could be something as simple as a superbug

all fair points, but its probably a good idea we try save ourselves and other species on this planet while we can, but the forces keeping the status quo are immense. i do think another couple of serious economic crashes might just focus our minds a little more, its also important to realise the failure of state bodies in dealing with such issues, our political institutions are complicit in these failings, and must be held accountable at all times

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 4:54pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

all fair points, but its probably a good idea we try save ourselves and other species on this planet while we can, but the forces keeping the status quo are immense. i do think another couple of serious economic crashes might just focus our minds a little more, its also important to realise the failure of state bodies in dealing with such issues, our political institutions are complicit in these failings, and must be held accountable at all times

Transparency is the answer to a lot of those questions - that is on the way as we enter the new "blockchain" era. NHS did a successful trial recently, but IBM, Deloitte, SAP etc. are all involved.

the issue is if you educated everyone on economics they would still behave like sheep

efforts are being put into saving our species and other endangered species - some humans don't mine going out to shoot rare animals though

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 5:28pm

euser1984 wrote: »

Transparency is the answer to a lot of those questions - that is on the way as we enter the new "blockchain" era. NHS did a successful trial recently, but IBM, Deloitte, SAP etc. are all involved.

the issue is if you educated everyone on economics they would still behave like sheep

efforts are being put into saving our species and other endangered species - some humans don't mine going out to shoot rare animals though

transparency is nearly always a good thing, but those that dont benefit from that will always find ways to hide, and will help to create the systems that allow them to do so. even though the world of blockchain looks interesting, i wouldnt get overly excited about it, ive been to some talks with the blockchain lovers, some a little lost in their utopian dream.

i will agree with some economic 'experts', theres actually no such thing as an economic expert, as its such a complex area, whereby even these experts will constantly bicker amongst themselves. you d be surprised at the amount of people that have become interested in the subject matter though since the crash, which is understandable, and great to see. herd mentality and group think is common amongst human populations, even individuals such as ourselves would experience these phenomenon on a regular basis, we are a complicated species, particularly in a behavioral sense

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 5:44pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

transparency is nearly always a good thing, but those that dont benefit from that will always find ways to hide, and will help to create the systems that allow them to do so. even though the world of blockchain looks interesting, i wouldnt get overly excited about it, ive been to some talks with the blockchain lovers, some a little lost in their utopian dream.

i've been involved in that stuff nearly since it came out and there is no way around not having a transparent view of the taxpayers money flow if it's demanded - and it's more powerful than the government just like the internet is.

sounds like you met up with dreamers when you were up there

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i will agree with some economic 'experts', theres actually no such thing as an economic expert

economic experts have a job for the same reason stockbrokers do - people cannot comprehend the whole story and need it broken down or at least know that someone out there can explain it if they need it - whether that person knows what he is talking about or not i'd say it's often the case that they don't know what the're talking about.

there would be no such thing as stockbrokers if people were just taught the basics of sound investment

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 5:56pm

euser1984 wrote: »

i've been involved in that stuff nearly since it came out and there is no way around not having a transparent view of the taxpayers money flow if it's demanded - and it's more powerful than the government just like the internet is.

sounds like you met up with dreamers when you were up there

economic experts have a job for the same reason stockbrokers do - people cannot comprehend the whole story and need it broken down or at least know that someone out there can explain it if they need it - whether that person knows what he is talking about or not i'd say it's often the case that they don't know what the're talking about.

there would be no such thing as stockbrokers if people were just taught the basics of sound investment

i have an extremely vague understanding of blockchain and its related technologies, but i think its always a good idea to have a little skepticism with such things, anything that has been created by humans can be broken by humans, we re a damn intelligent species when it comes to it. ive heard bill black mention a possible weakness in the tech, but i didnt really understand him to be honest, it does sound like very interesting technology though, again those that dont want to be found will always be able to hide.

does anyone truly understand the complex workings of our economic and financial systems, you d be surprised at the amount of 'experts' that didnt see the crash coming.

do stockbrokers truly understand the workings of stock markets, according to ha-joon chang, some hes met have admitted, they dont, due to its complexity.

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 6:15pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i have an extremely vague understanding of blockchain and its related technologies, but i think its always a good idea to have a little skepticism with such things, anything that has been created by humans can be broken by humans, we re a damn intelligent species when it comes to it. ive heard bill black mention a possible weakness in the tech, but i didnt really understand him to be honest, it does sound like very interesting technology though, again those that dont want to be found will always be able to hide.

does anyone truly understand the complex workings of our economic and financial systems, you d be surprised at the amount of 'experts' that didnt see the crash coming.

do stockbrokers truly understand the workings of stock markets, according to ha-joon chang, some hes met have admitted, they dont, due to its complexity.

It's actually quite easy to understand the economy - it goes in cycles because people start to enjoy their money.

The Irish are ballbags for enjoying their money; so i don't really like to see it in their pockets to be quite honest

I tend to only call someone an economist when they have proven themselves

blockchain is different - it takes out the human element

by incentivize (ing) people to confirm transactions which cannot be modified again unless all people confirming agree to do so

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 6:28pm

actually when i say transaction it's is not necessarily a movement of money either.

confirming a transaction could mean that a supply company has signed stock into a warehouse late - that transaction could also then debit the supplier account automatically for failing to deliver on the time specified when they signed an agreement on paper initially or a contract.

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 7:32pm

euser1984 wrote: »

It's actually quite easy to understand the economy - it goes in cycles because people start to enjoy their money.

The Irish are ballbags for enjoying their money; so i don't really like to see it in their pockets to be quite honest

I tend to only call someone an economist when they have proven themselves

blockchain is different - it takes out the human element by incentivize (ing) people to confirm transactions which cannot be modified again unless all people confirming agree to do so

the economy is far from easy to understand, some people have dedicated decades of their lives to try understand it, some doing very well in doing so. but even some of these 'experts' failed to see the crash coming, even going as far to call the leading boom as 'the great moderation', the people who believed this are very intelligent people, but maybe they have deeply misleading understanding of how our complex economic systems work. many of these individuals have been working at very high levels within our economic and political institutions for the majority of their lives. i will agree on the cycles of the operations of our economic systems, but booms and busts are actually highly complex, and money is one element of the causes of those booms and busts, but not exclusively.

the irish are not ballbags, we re just fairly normal irrational human beings, particularly when factors such as 'cheap credit' are involved.

id imagine you ll never find an economist who has a 100% track record, even though there are many that are very intelligent and well informed, even some that never seen the crash coming.

oh never underestimate the willingness of humans to prove that human created systems can be broken, even though i dont truly understand this technology, watch this space!;)

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 8:22pm

the economy is far from easy to understand, some people have dedicated decades of their lives to try understand it, some doing very well in doing so. but even some of these 'experts' failed to see the crash coming, even going as far to call the leading boom as 'the great moderation', the people who believed this are very intelligent people, but maybe they have deeply misleading understanding of how our complex economic systems work. many of these individuals have been working at very high levels within our economic and political institutions for the majority of their lives. i will agree on the cycles of the operations of our economic systems, but booms and busts are actually highly complex, and money is one element of the causes of those booms and busts, but not exclusively.
[/QUOTE]

when you add everything up it becomes more complex - for example if china had problems with logistics or production due to unrest; there is no way to predict the knock on effects, on economies that rely on chinese products to do business - it's a complex set of relationships that governments ideally should not experiment with.

every system is simple if you break it down enough

what will actually cause a problem, it could be ireland or italy, venezuala and is going to hit germany big time whether they cause it or not - so economists cannot predict that or knock on effects just like nobody can predict the future - nobody really pointed at wall street before 2008 because they didn't know the problem would come from there; but also you can't tell people to stop spending during the good times and certainly cannot say to investors that we're gonna pull the plug on their profits

the irish are particularly renowned for greed and don't take any responsibly upon themselves - leading to every taxpayer in the country having to handle the bar tab in 2008.

ireland caused about 49% of the whole EU problem and germany gave us their citizens pension funds. now we are doing the same thing; and as a consequence the public are giving their money to the rich to prevent this kind of ****e happening in the first place somewhat....then when things go t*ts up everyone wants the rich to give back money - but redistribution of wealth is impossible with any currency models we use today and that is not on purpose

there are potential flaws, but the main contra is for the banks, pro for many.... if I have the blockchain downloaded to my computer and a million others have it downloaded how can you edit the history on the database without having to modify every single persons system that is connected

if I try to modify the record on my own version of the database then every other holder would have to accept the change which it wouldn't because it would have the wrong mathematical values

just like the internet didn't break or get taken over "yet" blockchain is here to stay for the foreseeable future and is an innovation that came from the same type of individuals that created the internet in the first place

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 9:05pm

euser1984 wrote: »

when you add everything up it becomes more complex - for example if china had problems with logistics or production due to unrest; there is no way to predict the knock on effects, on economies that rely on chinese products to do business - it's a complex set of relationships that governments ideally should not experiment with.

every system is simple if you break it down enough

what will actually cause a problem, it could be ireland or italy, venezuala and is going to hit germany big time whether they cause it or not - so economists cannot predict that or knock on effects just like nobody can predict the future - nobody really pointed at wall street before 2008 because they didn't know the problem would come from there; but also you can't tell people to stop spending during the good times and certainly cannot say to investors that we're gonna pull the plug on their profits

the irish are particularly renowned for greed and don't take any responsibly upon themselves - leading to every taxpayer in the country having to handle the bar tab in 2008.

ireland caused about 49% of the whole EU problem and germany gave us their citizens pension funds. now we are doing the same thing; and as a consequence the public are giving their money to the rich to prevent this kind of ****e happening in the first place somewhat....then when things go t*ts up everyone wants the rich to give back money - but redistribution of wealth is impossible with any currency models we use today and that is not on purpose

there are potential flaws, but the main contra is for the banks, pro for many.... if I have the blockchain downloaded to my computer and a million others have it downloaded how can you edit the history on the database without having to modify every single persons system that is connected

if I try to modify the record on my own version of the database then every other holder would have to accept the change which it wouldn't because it would have the wrong mathematical values

just like the internet didn't break or get taken over "yet" blockchain is here to stay for the foreseeable future and is an innovation that came from the same type of individuals that created the internet in the first place

so simple, that its leading some economic experts to create alternative modelling systems based on things such as complexity theory and complex systems dynamics! i have reason to beleive that some of the most common economic modelling systems, such as dsge models, are far from simple, i suspect you maybe seriously underestimating the complexity of these systems.

i could point you do some individuals that spotted the crash before it occurred, and who were indeed pointing the finger at wall street. when 5 billion dollars a day flys into a system from around the world, from other countries surpluses, in which is invested in ponzi schemes, expect trouble!

its becoming clearly obviously, theres something fundamentally wrong with our complex financial and banking systems, the fact that banks actually create the majority of our money via loans should be causing concern for all citizens, maybe we deregulated these systems a little too much? maybe it would be a good idea to re-regulate this sector, and take our monetary systems back under some sort of democratic control? are the citizens of ireland, or indeed the citizens of all other countries greedy, or is there something far more complex going on here? were we as a nation actually coerced into 'accepting' the bail outs? these issues are far more complex than you make it out to be, if people dont realise, we ve effectively been scammed, by a highly complex plutocratic network.

the eu is a bust, or more precisely, the euro is a bust by design. creating an economic union with little or no surplus recycling mechanism in place is asking for trouble, its creates divisions, on many fronts, particularly wealth inequalities, its becoming clearly obvious that wealth within the union is centralising, this is not good for the longevity of the union. its also important to realise, countries such as ours were not in fact bailed out, but the financial institutions that fueled the boom in the first place were, by using tax payers money in doing so, and not just our tax payers money, but other European tax payers to.

blockchain is all well and good, but i suspect, and please correct me if im wrong, that you beleive banks are mere intermediaries in all this, and that they just facilitate borrowers and lenders?

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 10:14pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so simple, that its leading some economic experts to create alternative modelling systems based on things such as complexity theory and complex systems dynamics! i have reason to beleive that some of the most common economic modelling systems, such as dsge models, are far from simple, i suspect you maybe seriously underestimating the complexity of these systems.

i could point you do some individuals that spotted the crash before it occurred, and who were indeed pointing the finger at wall street. when 5 billion dollars a day flys into a system from around the world, from other countries surpluses, in which is invested in ponzi schemes, expect trouble!

its becoming clearly obviously, theres something fundamentally wrong with our complex financial and banking systems, the fact that banks actually create the majority of our money via loans should be causing concern for all citizens, maybe we deregulated these systems a little too much? maybe it would be a good idea to re-regulate this sector, and take our monetary systems back under some sort of democratic control? are the citizens of ireland, or indeed the citizens of all other countries greedy, or is there something far more complex going on here? were we as a nation actually coerced into 'accepting' the bail outs? these issues are far more complex than you make it out to be, if people dont realise, we ve effectively been scammed, by a highly complex plutocratic network.

the eu is a bust, or more precisely, the euro is a bust by design. creating an economic union with little or no surplus recycling mechanism in place is asking for trouble, its creates divisions, on many fronts, particularly wealth inequalities, its becoming clearly obvious that wealth within the union is centralising, this is not good for the longevity of the union. its also important to realise, countries such as ours were not in fact bailed out, but the financial institutions that fueled the boom in the first place were, by using tax payers money in doing so, and not just our tax payers money, but other European tax payers to.

blockchain is all well and good, but i suspect, and please correct me if im wrong, that you beleive banks are mere intermediaries in all this, and that they just facilitate borrowers and lenders?

the only thing that makes it complex is the amount of variables like the weather

otherwise you can think of the economy as being at a local market where you swap some crafted woodwork for food or an animal

plenty pointed to wall street but nobody did in ireland that had an effect

blockchain caters for loans too - checkout the salt lending platform - the banking system currently used is from the 1400's - that was about 600 years ago :pac:

Wanderer78 · 22-08-2018 10:28pm

euser1984 wrote:

otherwise you can think of the economy as being at a local market where you swap some crafted woodwork for food or an animal

Sounds very similar to the neoclassical approach to macro economics, i.e. basing the macro economy on an overly simplified micro economic ideology. Our modern macro economic systems are far more complex than historic barter systems

euser1984 wrote:

plenty pointed to wall street but nobody did in ireland that had an effect

Shur very few were listening to those that were screaming about the oncoming crash, Irish and non Irish, many still aren't

euser1984 wrote:

blockchain caters for loans too - checkout the salt lending platform - the banking system currently used is from the 1400's - that was about 600 years ago

I think some people are getting carried away with all this Blockchain stuff, if they think it's gonna liberate them from our banking systems, they better think again, it ll be interesting to see how crytos do in the next banking crisis, I suspect many will collapse in a heap, as people run for cover, and try change their crytos into fiat faster than they can blink

euser1984 · 22-08-2018 10:41pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Sounds very similar to the neoclassical approach to macro economics, i.e. basing the macro economy on an overly simplified micro economic ideology. Our modern macro economic systems are far more complex than historic barter systems

it gets more complex when you start introducing those factors but that's the simple premise

macro economics is easy to understand and based on very simple information while being impossible to predict the future - i'm not a fortune teller myself, you can look for tell tale signs but it's already too late anyway - business cycle completed after consumers have handed over most of their money including deposits for mortgages.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I think some people are getting carried away with all this Blockchain stuff, if they think it's gonna liberate them from our banking systems, they better think again, it ll be interesting to see how crytos do in the next banking crisis, I suspect many will collapse in a heap, as people run for cover, and try change their crytos into fiat faster than they can blink

blockchain has nothing to do with banks; although people are using the technology to offer alternatives to banking systems, because it can do that

blockchain is just a public database system based on old technologies like hash values for confirmation the transaction is valid and should be sent to every person holding that database in the world that is working on confirming transactions - what you can do with a database you can do with blockchain

one of the main things behind the currency idea is that it's provides incentive for people to confirm the transactions

there is proper value on the way in blockchain startups

VonZan · 22-08-2018 11:10pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so simple, that its leading some economic experts to create alternative modelling systems based on things such as complexity theory and complex systems dynamics! i have reason to beleive that some of the most common economic modelling systems, such as dsge models, are far from simple, i suspect you maybe seriously underestimating the complexity of these systems.

i could point you do some individuals that spotted the crash before it occurred, and who were indeed pointing the finger at wall street. when 5 billion dollars a day flys into a system from around the world, from other countries surpluses, in which is invested in ponzi schemes, expect trouble!

its becoming clearly obviously, theres something fundamentally wrong with our complex financial and banking systems, the fact that banks actually create the majority of our money via loans should be causing concern for all citizens, maybe we deregulated these systems a little too much? maybe it would be a good idea to re-regulate this sector, and take our monetary systems back under some sort of democratic control? are the citizens of ireland, or indeed the citizens of all other countries greedy, or is there something far more complex going on here? were we as a nation actually coerced into 'accepting' the bail outs? these issues are far more complex than you make it out to be, if people dont realise, we ve effectively been scammed, by a highly complex plutocratic network.

the eu is a bust, or more precisely, the euro is a bust by design. creating an economic union with little or no surplus recycling mechanism in place is asking for trouble, its creates divisions, on many fronts, particularly wealth inequalities, its becoming clearly obvious that wealth within the union is centralising, this is not good for the longevity of the union. its also important to realise, countries such as ours were not in fact bailed out, but the financial institutions that fueled the boom in the first place were, by using tax payers money in doing so, and not just our tax payers money, but other European tax payers to.

blockchain is all well and good, but i suspect, and please correct me if im wrong, that you beleive banks are mere intermediaries in all this, and that they just facilitate borrowers and lenders?

Our financial and banking systems aren't that complex. The problem with our financial system is that when it comes down to the bare bones our economic policy is largely based on selling tomorrow for a better today. The problem is more to do with the reliance on investor capital and giving in to short term needs of the people who ultimately control the market and shape government policy. Allowing the markets to fluctuate on investors perception alone will always end in disaster once someone gets spooked.

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 12:00pm

VonZan wrote: »

Our financial and banking systems aren't that complex. The problem with our financial system is that when it comes down to the bare bones our economic policy is largely based on selling tomorrow for a better today. The problem is more to do with the reliance on investor capital and giving in to short term needs of the people who ultimately control the market and shape government policy. Allowing the markets to fluctuate on investors perception alone will always end in disaster once someone gets spooked.

Just to add to this any growth over 3% in a year is dangerous

Wanderer78 · 23-08-2018 12:05pm

david mcwilliams has a new program coming up next week on tv3 if people are interested

https://twitter.com/i/status/1031944015413956609

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 12:08pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-are-issuing-tons-of-risky-loans-2017-10?IR=T

Wanderer78 · 23-08-2018 12:11pm

euser1984 wrote: »

https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-are-issuing-tons-of-risky-loans-2017-10?IR=T

cant read it unfortunately, but theres nothing new with financial institutions creating risky loans, the savings and loan scandal in america, and ninja loans etc are fine examples of that

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 12:14pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

david mcwilliams has a new program coming up next week on tv3 if people are interested

https://twitter.com/i/status/1031944015413956609

this is populism - mcwilliams knows the business cycle is almost over - he even wrote about it on his website

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 12:16pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

cant read it unfortunately, but theres nothing new with financial institutions creating risky loans, the savings and loan scandal in america, and ninja loans etc are fine examples of that

this is where things end up when corporations try to squeeze in as much money before a recession

probably buy back some of their shares with it

Wanderer78 · 23-08-2018 12:46pm

euser1984 wrote: »

this is populism - mcwilliams knows the business cycle is almost over - he even wrote about it on his website

i wouldnt class it as populism, many open market economies are ending up with similarish problems, i.e. rising inequality, major housing and homelessness issues, something isnt right with all this free market stuff. our economic and political systems are becoming highly unstable

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 1:13pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i wouldnt class it as populism, many open market economies are ending up with similarish problems, i.e. rising inequality, major housing and homelessness issues, something isnt right with all this free market stuff. our economic and political systems are becoming highly unstable

business cycles are normal - corporations out of control including banks have destroyed due to building up massive risky investments on the premise that there too big to fail; should not be normal but has become normal

corporations have many benefits too

one of the reasons there is problems in society with inequality etc. etc. is because the middle class are reckless

if you want to solve a problem you need to fix greed. however, one reason you get up in the morning to go to work is so you can enjoy your your own personal greed, greed is emotion that makes any market work

the soviet union couldn't produce enough food partly because there was no incentive to work hard

in the meantime the less money the middle class have for indulgence the better

euser1984 · 23-08-2018 1:16pm

if you are not in the position to afford a house due to being in the public services with pay that hasn't increased - then that's a good thing for you; and as strange as it may seem they are looking out for you

if you got a mortgage now for 400k, the property might only be worth 200k but you will still have a mortgage for 400k

Your interpretation of this graph

Comments