Ninja Snow Risk - Saturday 4th Jan.

Iancar29 · 03-01-2014 1:58pm #1

Opening up a seperate thread to concentrate on tomorrow's sneeky snow risk.

Currently its looking very borderground. Yes the ppn is there to cause some good accumulations but im a bit worried on dewpoints on the nmm.

Heres the best of the bunch atm.

NAE 12pm tomorrow.

850 temps just decent enough for midlands

Dps are good

NMM though has more of high ground in the east at risk.

Roll on the next runs! * fingers crossed! *

highdef · 03-01-2014 2:07pm

Will be watching this like a hawk as my location at home and immediate surroundings could put me at risk if the NAE verifies.

omicron · 03-01-2014 2:08pm

High ground certainly likely to see something anyway!

acassells80 · 03-01-2014 3:11pm

Any chance of snow for Dublin or is it just the NW

Kippure · 03-01-2014 3:17pm

Dublin and Wicklow hills Sallys Gap will have snow.

DOCARCH · 03-01-2014 3:21pm

Kippure wrote: »

Dublin and Wicklow hills Sallys Gap will have snow.

Noted that now, obviously after your experince of Canada, you don't rate them as mountains anymore?

Kippure · 03-01-2014 3:25pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Noted that now, obviously after your experince of Canada, you don't rate them as mountains anymore?

Quality never laughed so much....
THE Dublin and Wicklow Rockies will Have Blizzards.
Wicklows Sally Gap Mountain Pass will Have Serious Drifts

patneve2 · 03-01-2014 3:26pm

Typical situation where Cavan and Monaghan see decent snow and the rest of the country under precipitation sees sleet at best (at low lying areas). Still one to follow though.

acassells80 · 03-01-2014 3:26pm

Will have to borrow a land rover so and head up the mountains

mumo3 · 03-01-2014 3:28pm

I've just been out for a short walk in Dublin 22 I thought my inner ears where going to explode from the wind chill it's is freezing out side

lolie · 03-01-2014 3:38pm

Bbc weather just showing a small band of rain/snow moving up along the east early tomorrow then a few small showers following behind.
Nothing like the charts posted above:(

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2014 4:18pm

Latest NAE has pushed the snow risk further west with the precipitation going further west. Although probably a now-cast situation.

patneve2 · 03-01-2014 4:22pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest NAE has pushed the snow risk further west with the precipitation going further west. Although probably a now-cast situation.

Will be interesting to see what the 12 Z gfs shows (even though its not high res), the 06z run only has the precipitation affecting the E coast and inland E to a certain extent.

Wile E. Coyote · 03-01-2014 4:38pm

If I don't wake up tomorrow to find a ninja snowman in my back garden I'm gonna be very disappointed.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTkA8mSktwjvxtQ1Un0dIPgw8jzvtIjRnIUCDNeQktaslNM-NXPNA

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTkA8mSktwjvxtQ1Un0dIPgw8jzvtIjRnIUCDNeQktaslNM-NXPNA

mumo3 · 03-01-2014 4:40pm

I seriously want to follow this but don't think id be able for the heartache if nothing comes of it

Cork Lass · 03-01-2014 4:47pm

Does anyone know if we will have snow in Cork?

Wine Goddess · 03-01-2014 4:48pm

mumo3 wrote: »

I seriously want to follow this but don't think id be able for the heartache if nothing comes of it

Oh I feel exactly the same way but I still want to follow it despite knowing we'll get nothing over here already!!!!!

Snow-addict, me.

prunudo · 03-01-2014 5:22pm

I look forward to a good dump of snow as much as the next snow bunny but I have to ask. What's ninja snow?

Larbre34 · 03-01-2014 5:40pm

jvan wrote: »

I look forward to a good dump of snow as much as the next snow bunny but I have to ask. What's ninja snow?

Stealthy, unexpected snow. The kind that sneaks up and takes you unawares when you're preoccupied with storms and rain, that occasional surprise overnight fall when cold air is dragged in and the dewpoints fall a bit. It usually disappears just as quick.

I like to think of it as Keyser Snowse......

prunudo · 03-01-2014 6:01pm

That's makes sense, basically what it says on the tin. I was over thinking the meaning.

DOCARCH · 03-01-2014 6:06pm

12z GFS not showing much promise of anything (well NIMBY).

Mr Cumulonimbus · 03-01-2014 6:27pm

DP's and 850 temps are up slightly on the 12z NAE for tomorrow afternoon compared to the earlier run.

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2014 6:42pm

Latest Hirlam has that wee system further east than the NAE and gives some snowfall over parts of the east, (probably on the Wicklow Mtns)

Precip Chart

Snow Chart

nacho libre · 03-01-2014 7:46pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25585110

this would be the ultimate ninja snow. we can but dream...:(

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2014 8:13pm

Nothing too organized so a nowcasting event as we follow clusters of mixed wintry showers on radar tomorrow. Probably quite variable results and somewhat elevation based, chances of a temporary covering of snow may range from 10% at sea level to 70% above 300m. Covering would be defined as 2-5 cm lasting perhaps a few hours. Also risk of hail and snow pellets from some of these showers. A high probability of 5-8 cm covering in higher parts of the country above 500m. This will last overnight and melt in the milder conditions mid-day Sunday.

Hooter23 · 03-01-2014 8:14pm

Usually here in the west when we have the precipitation its not cold enough for snow and when it gets cold enough for snow there is no percipitation so annoying:mad:

acassells80 · 03-01-2014 8:43pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest Hirlam has that wee system further east than the NAE and gives some snowfall over parts of the east, (probably on the Wicklow Mtns)

Precip Chart

Snow Chart

That looks like snow for Dublin ?!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-01-2014 8:44pm

acassells80 wrote: »

That looks like snow for Dublin ?!

Mountains most probably !

DIF · 03-01-2014 8:52pm

Cork Lass wrote: »

Does anyone know if we will have snow in Cork?

As a fellow Cork person your question made me laugh... we had substantial snow in 2010... that was our quota until 2110

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2014 10:39pm

Latest NAE placing precip in Eastern parts again like Hirlam 12z, fancy the Wicklow mountains could do well enough, eastern NI too.

patneve2 · 03-01-2014 10:44pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest NAE placing precip in Eastern parts again like Hirlam 12z, fancy the Wicklow mountains could do well enough, eastern NI too.

GFS 18z agrees, precipitation clips the E coast. Probably 4/5 mm of cold rain on the coast, at best sleet. Snow line above 300-350m (conservative)

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2014 10:57pm

18z Hirlam still going for snowfall and also appears not just restricted to higher levels.

Appears to come as the precip intensifies as it heads north.

It also stalls over NI for some time, so if snow began to fall could be a few cms in places inland up there.

10am

12pm

patneve2 · 03-01-2014 11:00pm

Based on the charts I'd like to be in the Mourne Mountains above 300m asl tomorrow

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2014 11:04pm

Well it will be a temp and precip watch come the morning, with the wind off the land it should help.

Iancar29 · 03-01-2014 11:08pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well it will be a temp and precip watch come the morning, with the wind off the land it should help.

I agree... looks good for high levels in the east but still a nowcast setup.

Couldnt manage to get the day off work 2moro at this stage , so i have up until 12 to possibly enjoy some snow !

Think an alarm to be set for 5.30 is in order! lol

fontenoy7 · 03-01-2014 11:24pm

Snow in Cork.

Snow in Cork especially Cork City is a very rare event. North Cork has a much better chance. The cities that do best in Ireland for snow are Dublin and Belfast especially the suburbs of both and most especially when there is an East or North Easterly air flow. Dublin has done very well in recent years say from 2007 to presently. So far this year we have only had an hour of wet snow in Dublin 15. Then again there has been zero snow in Munich or Vilnius where friends of mine live.....mildest winter in Moscow for close to a hundred and twenty years.

davidsr20 · 04-01-2014 12:39am

Ninja snow! Very hard to take this tread serious with a heading like that!

Smidge · 04-01-2014 1:26am

Cork Lass wrote: »

Does anyone know if we will have snow in Cork?

Despite all of the high winds that Cork has experienced of late and the damage these winds have caused, sadly the Cork Snow Shield was not blown away

CB19Kevo · 04-01-2014 2:24am

Just had a sleet shower here in south east Kerry that turned roads white,Quite thick also so snow might not be that far away.:cool:

lolie · 04-01-2014 3:24am

Any snow bunnies still up should put on Sky news at 2.30 as they switch over to CBS news in the states.
They'll be reporting on the big snow storm over there.

torres9kop · 04-01-2014 3:35am

lolie wrote: »

Any snow bunnies still up should put on Sky news at 2.30 as they switch over to CBS news in the states.
They'll be reporting on the big snow storm over there.

Cool... But i doubt it will be as good as the blizzard thats to hit dublin in the morning

lolie · 04-01-2014 3:46am

torres9kop wrote: »

Cool... But i doubt it will be as good as the blizzard thats to hit dublin in the morning

Think you might be a tad disappointed when you wake up in the morn so:)

lucernarian · 04-01-2014 5:15am

Monitoring event with bated breath :P

highdef · 04-01-2014 5:16am

Precip coming up from the south is looking rather heavy as it nears Dublin....intensifying all the time too. Looks the like the Dublin/Wicklow moutains are starting to get a pasting. Whether the midlands and other higher ground will too is questionable though. About 3c here so a little bit too high. Will be interesting to see if the precip will mean a rise in temp or a fall due to evaporative cooling. Can't sleep now!!

Redsunset · 04-01-2014 5:20am

Raining here. Zzzzzzz

highdef · 04-01-2014 5:26am

I have a feeling that's gonna be the case....the radar looks way to good for it to be snow

John.Icy · 04-01-2014 5:31am

If only this was snow. Very heavy rainy sleet for the last 15 minutes. A close shave, the heavy precip was proceeded by a few snowflakes blowing in the wind.

Redsunset · 04-01-2014 5:35am

Ah places above 200 m should do well. Could be a nice dusting on hilltops come daybreak.

highdef · 04-01-2014 5:35am

It looks like arriving quite soon here. John.Icy, whereabouts in Kildare are you and do you know what height above sea level you at?

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2014 5:40am

Moving through quite swiftly so you'd say northeast areas at biggest risk.

John.Icy · 04-01-2014 5:41am

highdef wrote: »

It looks like arriving quite soon here. John.Icy, whereabouts in Kildare are you and do you know what height above sea level you at?

I'm in the small southern tip area of Kildare. I say I'm around 60-70m asl.

Ninja Snow Risk - Saturday 4th Jan.

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