Increasingly colder from tomorrow / Wintry showers and snow for some / Frost

darkman2 · 18-01-2012 7:23pm #1

Hi all, I have given my forecast in the other thread hijacked by manic depressives. Whilst they ponder how mild things are going to be why not post any interesting snowy reports from tomorrow onward here. Or hail, or sleet or frost or ice....all possible for this period. I will post an updated forecast later and we can all get involved to see what we can expect over the weekend. I suspect some, especially in the Northwest and North might be happy by Sunday and these conditions could yet last into the beginning of next week too.

Harps · 18-01-2012 7:53pm

Not expecting anything more than hail and sleet outside of the hills here but at least its better than constant grey and mildness of the past month

Should be travelling through the hills at some stage over the next couple of days so it'd be nice to see some winter scenery for the first time since mid December

darkman2 · 18-01-2012 7:57pm

You might get lucky, hopefully.

Basically this is how I see things panning out. It's probable most won't see snow but not impossible either over the weekend. However I think some will in the Northwestern counties in particular and on ground above 150 - 200m more widely. Because there is such uncertainty even at this stage over details for the weekend some intuition has to be used to make any sort of forecast. But I think it's a reasonably safe bet that at some stage on Saturday or Saturday night wintry showers (mostly rain, hail or sleet) will turn to snow in Northern areas. Probably staying a wet mix further South. Nothing disruptive I don't think but it would be nice to see snow falling at least. Tomorrow night, Friday night, Saturday night (away from Atlantic coasts), and Sunday night will be typically cold Winter nights with a widespread frost and ice may form where precipitation has occured. Saturday looks fairly breezy aswell so it will feel colder with temperatures in and around mid single figure range. A bit lower in the Northwest.

Nothing severe is on the horizon but it will be nice to see more winter like weather for the time of year.

Su Campu · 18-01-2012 8:29pm

Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.

blackius · 18-01-2012 8:35pm

At the risk of sounding like that manic depressive,icy bits breaking up on the window in the rain don't excite me.
I'm always puzzled how anyone can be excited about sleet...

It really is time to call for the men in white coats when one gets excited about sleety rain showers away from the hills,a sign of how little winter we've had this winter too.

I'm not going to bother with this thread,you'll be glad to hear DM,but hope those that do get up the mountains up north enjoy it!

I'll be lurking in the shadows hoping the much rumoured atlantic blocking transpires sometime in february and that we end up getting a week or two of real winter weather then from a proper source,the east or northeast

darkman2 · 18-01-2012 8:43pm

Su the GFS and ECM are not too keen atm for different reasons. I agree there. But even the GFS does bring in the possibility of wintry showers tomorrow and again on Sunday. The GEM and UKMO however are much better for prospects over the weekend even though the setup is still marginal. And when it's marginal small differences between the models can make big differences on the ground. i.e the Northwest, for example, could literally be within a few miles of meeting the criteria for snow but still missing out or it could be just within the zone of cold enough air to allow snow there but not elsewhere.

You could call it either way but I will go with the slightly colder scenario for the weekend.

darkman2 · 18-01-2012 8:51pm

blackius wrote: »

At the risk of sounding like that manic depressive,icy bits breaking up on the window in the rain don't excite me.
I'm always puzzled how anyone can be excited about sleet...

It really is time to call for the men in white coats when one gets excited about sleety rain showers away from the hills,a sign of how little winter we've had this winter too.

I'm not going to bother with this thread,you'll be glad to hear DM,but hope those that do get up the mountains up north enjoy it!

I'll be lurking in the shadows hoping the much rumoured atlantic blocking transpires sometime in february and that we end up getting a week or two of real winter weather then from a proper source,the east or northeast

I'm not excited about it:eek:

Scandinavian high pressure with a link to Greenland and low pressure undercutting with -20c 850 temps storming our way then I might get excited.

Duiske · 18-01-2012 8:55pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.

Possibly a little earlier than nightfall tomorrow Su. Northwest at risk of wintry showers from mid-afternoon, the risk gradually spreading to more northern areas after dark. As you say, from early Friday morning the brief, northern wintry spell will be all but over. Virtually no chance of anything wintry for the rest of the weekend, except on highest ground in the north, but even that is doubtful.

cherryghost · 18-01-2012 9:00pm

For once I completely agree with Su. Everything looks extremely marginal at this point, from any chart. If it pulls off I owe you a pint, darkman.

Nabber · 18-01-2012 9:06pm

Maybe only high ground will see this. Even then it will be breif. Friday night & Saturday morning looking like they will be coldest.

derekon · 18-01-2012 9:58pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.

Thank God common sense prevails around here and glad you gave your opinion Su, however you gotta love DM2's ramping!

When it comes to snow there are only two posters on this board that I take seriously in terms of forecasting snow on populated regions - They are Su Campu and MT Cranium.

D

pistolpetes11 · 18-01-2012 10:21pm

derekon wrote: »

Thank God common sense prevails around here and glad you gave your opinion Su, however you gotta love DM2's ramping!

When it comes to snow there are only two posters on this board that I take seriously in terms of forecasting snow on populated regions - They are Su Campu and MT Cranium.

D

In fairness to DM2 he called the last little blast of cold /snow for the North/ North West spot on when others were going against him.

Just because its not happening in our own backyards it does not mena that there wont be interest in the thread ,

As a weather enthusiast I am happy to read or see pics of the white stuff any where on our little piece of rock in the ocean.

darkman2 · 18-01-2012 10:23pm

Ramping

The forecast is very reasonable in my view. I am not talking anything up. It's based on my interpretation of the charts and like I said a little bit of intuition. I don't expect much in my location but others have a chance.

Enderman the queue of people who owe me pints on here for every marginal situation called correctly stretches out the door and around the block. Get in line:pac:

Latest high res UKMO forecast for tomorrow night - light - moderate wintry showers in the far North briefly. Snow on hills.

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/58230/188957.gif

(Very marginal - in fact I would argue the dew points are not really conducive to snow at lower levels but anyway we'll see)

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 12:09am

The Fax Chart from the met office for 23rd which is Monday has a thickness level of 528 all over the uk and Ireland and were in Northly flow.

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=127633

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=127633

Su Campu · 19-01-2012 12:10am

I've figured out the problem with the Spanish Hirlam's partial thickness values on weatheronline. Manually calculating the thicknesses from the surface pressure and 850 heights it seems that there are two times too many colour contours displayed on the chart when compared to the corresponding reference legend below it, so where it's indicating 1270 m off the far north coast tomorow evening below, its actual thickness is in reality around 1285 m, rising to around 1295 along the south coast.

With surface pressures ranging from 1016 to 1026 and a moist boundary layer, the thicknesses above would not be enough for snow to low levels. The same model is giving 950 hPa temps and heights of around +4 to +9 °C at around 740 - 840 m amsl, so with such a thick warm layer snow would be out of the question.

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 12:28am

Su Campu wrote: »

I've figured out the problem with the Spanish Hirlam's partial thickness values on weatheronline. Manually calculating the thicknesses from the surface pressure and 850 heights it seems that there are two times too many colour contours displayed on the chart when compared to the corresponding reference legend below it, so where it's indicating 1270 m off the far north coast tomorow evening below, its actual thickness is in reality around 1285 m, rising to around 1295 along the south coast.

With surface pressures ranging from 1016 to 1026 and a moist boundary layer, the thicknesses above would not be enough for snow to low levels. The same model is giving 950 hPa temps and heights of around +4 to +9 °C at around 740 - 840 m amsl, so with such a thick warm layer snow would be out of the question.

I love it when you talk weather dirty :pac::pac::pac:

If you were to sit the latest high res UKMO forecast map on top of the Hilarm model , the potential (Or lack of it in this case ) seem nearly exactly the same

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 12:57am

The 18z the ensembles and the fax charts moving in the right direction, maybe just maybe hay DarkMan2 what do you think of the potentiel out there ?

Sponge Bob · 19-01-2012 1:37am

OK so we get anodder one of dese lads of a winter.

The AVERAGE temperature in January is around 5.2-5.4c.

Where is the PROOF that it will go BELOW that temperature range for 3 days SUSTAINED. ??????

Cos like AVERAGE is NOT COLDER mainly because it is simply AVERAGE and COLDER means BELOW AVERAGE and for some time, ...............like say 3 days.

Just coz Wolfie has closed his account does not mean we need a new thread in this forum.

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 1:45am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

OK so we get anodder one of dese lads of a winter.

The AVERAGE temperature in January is around 5.2-5.4c.

Where is the PROOF that it will go BELOW that temperature range for 3 days SUSTAINED. ??????

Cos like AVERAGE is NOT COLDER mainly because it is simply AVERAGE and COLDER means BELOW AVERAGE and for some time, ...............like say 3 days.

Just coz Wolfie has closed his account does not mean we need a new thread in this forum.

Sponge where has it been said it will be below average , it has been stated as colder ( not too hard with how mild we have been)

I don't see the point in posting in a thread if you have nout decent to add to it , even a counter argument with charts to back you up or something along that vein

Sponge Bob · 19-01-2012 1:48am

I haven't posted a forecasting thread since before Christmas Pete....and you well know how that one turned out.

I cannot see 3 days of less than average in the models and surely we cannot have a single thread for every hourly 'excursion' below 5.2c can we. ???

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 1:53am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I haven't posted a forecasting thread since before Christmas Pete....and you well know how that one turned out.

I cannot see 3 days of less than average in the models and surely we cannot have a single thread for every hourly 'excursion' below 5.2c can we. ???

It's not doing any harm really is it ?

Sponge Bob · 19-01-2012 1:55am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

It's not doing any harm really is it ?

Sure it can't if it isn't there can it ???? :cool:

pistolpetes11 · 19-01-2012 1:57am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Sure it can't if it isn't there can it ???? :cool:

Your obviously in the mood to go on the wind up tonight il leave you at it then.

Sponge Bob · 19-01-2012 2:23am

Pete, we are ALL evidentially challenged right now! Way it is.

jimmy.d · 19-01-2012 11:45am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The guy is a troll. Simple as.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 19-01-2012 11:56am

This should go here too !

cherryghost · 19-01-2012 12:07pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

This should go here too !

That's the best chart I've seen since the downbeat downgrades over the past few days. -6 uppers, dew point is at tipping point now after being in the positive over the last few days. Any snow might be confined to higher ground but judging by that, looks like lower levels is possible. All we need now is a colder air mass in the next few charts and something might happen.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 19-01-2012 12:14pm

Enderman wrote: »

That's the best chart I've seen since the downbeat downgrades over the past few days. -6 uppers, dew point is at tipping point now after being in the positive over the last few days. Any snow might be confined to higher ground but judging by that, looks like lower levels is possible. All we need now is a colder air mass in the next few charts and something might happen.

GP on Netweather seems confident this is the way things will go.

Tis a great chart !

HellFireClub · 19-01-2012 12:19pm

Lads I think it's game over for snow this year, wish it was otherwise but the trend since September has been nothing but mild weather with very odd spell of cooler weather, I don't know anything about weather charts or the likes but this winter has been the mildest I've ever lived through, so if it walks like a duck and if it quacks like a duck...!

ninebeanrows · 19-01-2012 12:39pm

HellFireClub wrote: »

Lads I think it's game over for snow this year, wish it was otherwise but the trend since September has been nothing but mild weather with very odd spell of cooler weather, I don't know anything about weather charts or the likes but this winter has been the mildest I've ever lived through, so if it walks like a duck and if it quacks like a duck...!

I can see it now. A Baltic March. And i reckon it will happen.

I am hopeful enough for February.

We will get a splash of the stuff at some point between Feb 1 and March 31st for sure

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 19-01-2012 12:52pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can see it now. A Baltic March. And i reckon it will happen.

I am hopeful enough for February.

We will get a splash of the stuff at some point between Feb 1 and March 31st for sure

Lot more ensembles colder than the control

Conrach · 19-01-2012 1:19pm

Wind has picked up here and some sleety showers. Very surprised to even see sleet here.

Sponge Bob · 19-01-2012 2:16pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can see it now. A Baltic March.

That could even go well into April, remember 1998 ??

dirtyghettokid · 19-01-2012 3:01pm

wintry shower now between naul & lusk north co dublin ~400ft asl

kinda graupel like.. cold too

darkman2 · 19-01-2012 3:05pm

(Mostly) Rain, Hail, Sleet shower on Dublin's Northside.

Nabber · 19-01-2012 3:13pm

Rain here in D12. Wind chill is making the rain hurt :rolleyes:

I am pie · 19-01-2012 3:17pm

15 minutes of rain in Blackrock, Dublin. Sky clearing from the coast. Heavy grey clouds moving inland.

Su Campu · 19-01-2012 3:18pm

dirtyghettokid wrote: »

wintry shower now between naul & lusk north co dublin 400m asl

kinda graupel like.. cold too

There is no terrain above 170 m in north Co. Dublin! Are you in a plane?!

DOCARCH · 19-01-2012 3:18pm

Nice bit of snow falling in the highlands of Scotland.

I know it has no relevance to here but always nice to see snow falling.

http://www.winterhighland.com/cams/aviemore/aviemorevideo.php

dirtyghettokid · 19-01-2012 3:19pm

Su Campu wrote: »

There is no terrain above 170 m in north Co. Dublin! Are you in a plane?!

lol it's probably 400ft ..

oops

HellFireClub · 19-01-2012 4:09pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can see it now. A Baltic March. And i reckon it will happen.

I am hopeful enough for February.

We will get a splash of the stuff at some point between Feb 1 and March 31st for sure

My tenner says otherwise me auld flower! :cool::D;):D:cool:

Deep Easterly · 19-01-2012 5:21pm

This day 130 years ago we would have had some real weather to talk about:

More excellent historic re-analysis charts here:
http://www.wetter3.de/Archiv/
All the way back to 1870 and in 6 hr increments with many other parameters included as well.

Elmer Blooker · 19-01-2012 5:32pm

A famous month which saw the lowest temperature ever in Ireland and that channel low too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_January_1881

Harps · 19-01-2012 6:38pm

Nothing but some short lived hail showers here today, top of Errigal is white but only a patchy covering for the very top of most of the mountains, lying snow level above 500m at a guess

derekon · 19-01-2012 6:47pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

That could even go well into April, remember 1998 ??

Thanks , some interesting facts in there - for example 5 days of snow in April 1998 in Dublin along with a low of around -5oC in the county during that period. Maybe there is a wee bit of hope for Feb and March 2012 after all

D

Pangea · 19-01-2012 7:31pm

Was driving earlier and one place was all white with sleet here in Donegal, dangerous enough for driving in. It was 4c at the time around 3pm. The sleet was compacted.

eskimocat · 19-01-2012 7:50pm

Dodged into the car in Sligo just as a real sharp hail shower hit not long ago... loud (on the car!) small tight compacted hail.... now its the same in Dromahair!!! ping ping ping!

Wild Bill · 19-01-2012 9:43pm

Shower here at 6.30pm (0.2mm). Pure rain.

What joy it must be to live where the sleet and graupel falls at +4C !

(We used to call it "soft hail" before we were properly educated) :cool:

Su Campu · 19-01-2012 9:48pm

I think this particular thread has run its course and we won't be seeing anything from it. Much warmer air pushes in later tonight and for the weekend (850 temp up to +5 °C), with stiff breezes throughout reducing the chance of frost where skies clear.

Maybe Sunday night and Monday is the next window of focus for something a bit wintry, with a colder northwesterly briefly setting in.

Conrach · 19-01-2012 10:05pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Shower here at 6.30pm (0.2mm). Pure rain.

What joy it must be to live where the sleet and graupel falls at +4C !

(We used to call it "soft hail" before we were properly educated) :cool:

I suppose it is a joy. We had heavy sleet and hail showers all afternoon and the temp never dipped below +3C.
I had to escort an after school event and the kids thought it was snow. Thanks to this forum I was able to explain the difference in snow, sleet, hail and graupel. Graupel has become the latest buzzword amongst 10 year olds...Sounds so rude.:D

Rain only since 7pm and still +4C...So there you go!

darkman2 · 20-01-2012 12:06am

Hi all, just a short update from me.Briefly touched on the possibility of colder weather lasting into next week in the OP. The 18z GFS leaves open the possibility that the generally colder phase of weather will last well into next week. Sunday and Monday look good for sleet or snow showers in the North. Milder on Tuesday with a spell of rain before colder weather sweeps in again for Wednesday with a further risk of wintry weather particularly West and North.

Increasingly colder from tomorrow / Wintry showers and snow for some / Frost

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