FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Not as cold maybe after next weekend but still keeping the cool theme going and looks potentially wet unsettled out to +240 on the ECMWF 0Z







Next weekend looks like a good early blast of cold arctic air. Temps set to stay cold from Fri to Mon now I think with nights getting colder through the weekend leading to widespread frost Sun and more so Mon going by present charts, good agreement between the models. Will be interesting to see the effects of all that cold air passing over the relatively warm SST's at this time of the year. ECMWF early indicators showing plenty of convective showers and with cold uppers down to -4C or -5C you would expect some of hail and possible thunder , more so on coasts especially the Northern Counties and down along Atlantic coasts and some straying inland on what looks like a brisk wind in coastal areas at the beginning of the weekend.Would expect bright sunny spells also. Is it too early to mention the S word . Maybe a dusting on Mountains along Northern coasts perhaps ?

ECMWF 12Z keeping the cold air mass going well out to +240. Even colder now past next weekend than the last run.

ECMWF 12Z showing some rough weather at the end of the run, towards the end of next week. LP system coming off Greenland and deepening as it approaches Ireland. Worth keeping an eye on this one to see if it shows up on the next few runs. The Jet looks to power up and help steer the depression towards us going by current charts anyway. GFS showing a similar version of it as well. We will see.

The models out in FI have taken many twists and turns over the last couple of days with and the only consistency is cold weather with LP's nearby and showing different timings and different depths in pressure. Around mid week next shows complex weather around our showers with forecasts only becoming reliable near the date. Cold rain and breezy / windy at times and probably quite cloudy at times. Not showing the deep depression at the end of the week as strong as previous runs, GFS shows it well off the NW, ECM not showing much influence from a LP well off the coast, GEM showing it off the NW but later. Would expect the models to chop and change over the coming days.

Time to put a few of these to keep an eye on this.







NHC

Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast
to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the
south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.
Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the
cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models
agree on this general scenario, though there are differences
regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature
and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.
That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Lp's coming in off the Atlantic looks like the theme well out to if not past +240hrs.

Looks like November weather all right.