Renewed rain and wind potential Mon 30th Nov -Wed 2nd Dec

Now that Clodagh has come and gone, with gusty winds starting to subside into the 40-70 km/hr range, it's time to look ahead to the next series of events which seem to form one long-duration storm cycle that promises heavy rainfall for parts of the western and central counties in particular, and gusty winds reaching alert levels for at least the west coast on Tuesday night if not more widely.

First of all, the rainfall potential is considerable and given the saturated ground conditions, this thread is being given a level two designation -- if this situation was for June on dry ground, perhaps it would be level one. The rain will come in two waves, first being 20-30 mm on Monday across a zone that includes Clare, Kerry, north Limerick, south Galway and parts of Tipperary, Roscommon, Offaly and Laois. This leading wave will be associated with low pressure that will never fully break away from a stronger system out in the Atlantic, so that it forms a "leading wave" type of event. Temperatures will be much milder on the south side of its track in Munster and south Leinster, reaching 12 or 13 C. To the north it will stay in single digits from Galway to just north of Dublin and only 4-6 C in Ulster. Wind potential with this first wave looks moderate and sub-alert but gusts could reach 90 or 100 km/hr in exposed places on the south coast Monday afternoon. The dynamics of the system will prevent strong winds from mixing to the ground further north where most places will remain in a light easterly to moderate southeasterly flow later.

Then on Tuesday (1st Dec) the stronger Atlantic system will begin to sweep into western counties with an increasing southerly wind and outbreaks of heavy rain with 30-50 mm potential over a 36-hour period. This will be on top of the earlier amounts for Clare and south Galway, flood risk will be quite high with this long-duration event. Winds of 80-120 km/hr will develop near the west coast by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will come up into the 11-13 C range across all parts of Ireland in this southerly flow and it will eventually get quite windy in almost all regions. However, this is considered a level one wind event for now, the level two storm risk is for rain and flooding.

The event will slowly peter out on Wed 2 Dec and in the final stages a trailing wave timed for Wednesday night into Thursday morning could bring a touch of sleet or snow to higher ground in the south once colder temperatures filter in behind the cold fronts. Flooding may however be ongoing in some areas for the mid-week period.

And it looks like we may need alerts for wind and rain the following weekend as well ... so an active period ahead.