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coronavirus and the property effect

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  • 28-02-2020 2:18pm
    #1
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭


    It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.


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    #2
    PhoenixParker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭PhoenixParker


    Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

    Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

    The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

    If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.


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    #3
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    PhoenixParker wrote: »
    Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

    Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

    The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

    If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.

    Or...it will affect our young urban flatsharing population disproportionately as they coming into infected humans as they shop for avocados and vinyl records while the middle aged and elderly board themselves up at home!

    The main thing is that it is likely to slow global trade for a few months, with a knock on effect on the economy. Maybe everyone should consume less and it would be good for the world and the environment.


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    #4
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    PhoenixParker wrote: »
    Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

    Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

    The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

    If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.

    It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.


    Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.


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    #5
    PhoenixParker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭PhoenixParker


    handlemaster wrote: »
    It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.


    Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.

    Way to over react!

    The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.


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    #6
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    PhoenixParker wrote: »
    Way to over react!

    The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.

    It's the virus it does that


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    #7
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    handlemaster wrote: »
    It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.

    China expects to be back producing at full capacity in production within 2 weeks
    Since restarting production 2 weeks ago 70% of backlog exports have been produced and 50% has been shipped.
    China Steel production growth increased in January and February, they know account for over half the worlds steel output.
    world markets will stabilize.
    If property prices are to be a affected it wont be over night it can take 12 months too 18 moths for this to filter true.
    Jobs that will be hardest hit will be turisum sport and leisure .
    Infesters fear people wont consume enough goods.
    Who knows really only time will tell.


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    #8
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/job-losses-loom-as-exposed-economy-braces-for-slowdown-over-coronavirus-39012713.html


    The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect


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    #9
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    handlemaster wrote: »
    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/job-losses-loom-as-exposed-economy-braces-for-slowdown-over-coronavirus-39012713.html


    The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect

    European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America


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    #10
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    The markets will only be one factor, the survival of the eldery might have a bigger impact on downward trends.


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    #11
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    ZX7R wrote: »
    European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America

    Time.will tell. Markets can take a while to digest the facts and the economical stats are not out there just yet. But what we could face is lack of supply and then on the back of that lower consumption which in turn leads to lower employment drag which in turn leads to lower demand..


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    #12
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It is very early days yet. There is no vaccine available. If things get to the stage of layoffs and business failures with airlines, hotels, transport operators and others vulnerable to reduced movement and tourism, the knock-on effects will be defaults on bank loans and rents. If bad debts increase in the banks it will reduce the willingness of banks to fund asset purchases even further. Add to that, the fact that governments may have to spend a lot of money on containment measures. If large numbers of conferences are cancelled hotels will be severely impacted and may well fail. Only businesses with very large cash reserves will be able to survive. Irish banks are too weak to keep business propped up until normality returns. The government is far too heavily borrowed to even consider compensation packages.


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    #13
    C3PO
    Registered Users Posts: 3,738 ✭✭✭C3PO


    I suspect that in the short term the market will simply stall with little or nothing being sold. Whether there is a long term effect on house prices will depend on how long the crisis lasts and it’s overall economic impact.


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    #14
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    The Coronavirus is going to have a very big effect on world markets and employment follows suit. Prices will and the very least stall for several months


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    #15
    Heres Johnny
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Heres Johnny


    As a property owner I hope prices do not fall but if they do any house I might want to trade up to will surely fall as well so cost to change will not widen......although I am not in the market for trading up or down at the moment ..........so I, possibly selfishly, hope they dont fall as all my siblings and close friends own property and nobody is in the market I know.

    Anyone else I am not close enough with to wish a fall so they can buy.

    But as a property buyer after the last crash in 08 (I bought in 2010) it gives a great opportunity for those to buy if there is a crash but there will probably be a credit crunch again then so catch 22

    Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

    On the flipside, housing output may contract as a result of this virus and crisis which will put upward pressure on prices

    One might cancel the other out, who knows?

    My suggestion is no, property prices will not fall significantly unless there is a massive and prolonged recession which I doubt, possibly a bad year for economy in 2020 but expect a bounce back very soon


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    #16
    Queasy Tadpole
    Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Queasy Tadpole


    It's definitely going to affect me. I had wanted to buy and sell this year but I doubt it's gonna happen now. I'm watching everyday and I'm still seeing houses being bought and sold and no real change in price. In fact a slight increase if anything.


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    #17
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Heres Johnny wrote: »
    Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

    Just to clarify, they will fall if there is a reduction in aggregate demand or an increase in supply. If there are the same number of people wanting to buy, but they have less money to spend (whether through job losses, reduced savings or banks restricting lending), and/or if more houses come on stream to outstrip new demand, then prices can fall.


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    #18
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    Just to clarify, they will fall if there is a reduction in aggregate demand or an increase in supply. If there are the same number of people wanting to buy, but they have less money to spend (whether through job losses, reduced savings or banks restricting lending), and/or if more houses come on stream to outstrip new demand, then prices can fall.


    I have been looking at myhome and there seems to be less property on it now then there was at the start of the year supply seems to be drying up as well. I can see there being very few transactions between now and the summer with Corona so we wont know what way property prices are going until we get a heavier sample size


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    #19
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    This interview should open a few eyes. We are only at the beginning of this. There be an enormous shake out before this is over and a vaccine can be found.


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts


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    #20
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,265 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Quite possibly there could be a lot of probate sales in the next 24 months.

    Market is down I’m looking at houses at the moment. People are holding off.


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    #21
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 446 ✭✭ebayissues


    I have seen houses marked as sold being re-advertised. As a buyer I'm holding off.



    The cost of me holding off is probably a years rent which is 10k. If house prices in my bracket fall for 30/40k, I'll acept it.


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    #22
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air


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    #23
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air

    Same with anyone selling hold off until this has cleared and normality resumes no point taking a hair cut unless you need to


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    #24
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,344 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air

    If you are gone sale agreed, what would you suggest?


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    #25
    downwesht
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭downwesht


    6 x 3 one bed will certainly be in demand!


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    #26
    Queasy Tadpole
    Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Queasy Tadpole


    I'm a buyer and a seller and I'm slowing down my search but if I find a place and go sale agreed I'm going ahead with it, held off pulling the trigger for too long and now look whats happening.


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    #27
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,302 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    2000 jobs gone at KLM just this minute.

    This is going to be absolute carnage.


    https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1238583281416839168


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    #28
    IamtheWalrus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,075 ✭✭✭IamtheWalrus


    I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?


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    #29
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,265 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Same with anyone selling hold off until this has cleared and normality resumes no point taking a hair cut unless you need to

    If you are taking a hair cut, the property you are buying has taking one too. ;)


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    #30
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    IamtheWalrus wrote: »
    I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?
    What - the virus or job losses?


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    #31
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,265 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    IamtheWalrus wrote: »
    I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?

    No one knows.


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