April 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for April, 2019


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st


Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

________________________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts or average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

Rikand, max sunshine possible is about 13 hours, I went with 12 for you in case that recorder is shaded a bit.

The consensus for 21st (Dublin) is for a rather warm day with half the field predicting no rain (the median was 0.05 mm rounded up to 0.1). Those 12 are going to score the same and it hurt my brain to try to figure out what that meant for scoring. If there is no rain (or a trace) then these will all score 3. If there is a very small amount, they may also score 3 if they tie for any place better than 5th, otherwise, I think we'll have to go with them all at 2/3 with 5 to 8 only at 3/3. If there are four or fewer that have larger errors, those will bring in these zero forecasts at 1/3. If there are 5 to 8 that have larger errors, those will score 1/3 and the zero forecasts will all be 2/3. As the fourth and fifth highest rain forecasts are 2.0 mm, this is the breakdown for amounts and scoring for the zero forecasts ...

Actual, mm ___ zero forecast scores

0.0 to 0.4 ____ 3/3

0.5 to 1.0 ____ 2/3

1.1 and above_ 1/3

Hopefully there won't be too many ties otherwise as I separate the groups into three for scoring.

(this is the order of precip forecasts for 21st) ...

0.0 (12) __ 0.1 __ 0.5 (2) __ 0.8 (2) __ 1.0 __ 1.2 __ 2.0 (2) __ 3.0 __ 3.2 __ 3.5

Thanks, now I think we have a full turnout and I have added Con Sensus to the table.

I saw -3 at Moore Park this morning while preparing the forecast.

That -9.7 reading at Oak Park is some sort of glitch, the ground minimum is only -0.4. Hourlies never go below freezing.

Will monitor the daily data section for a correction on that.

After one week ...

IMT on 5.8 (5.9 if questionable data amended) or 2.1 below normal for the period.

MAX to the 7th was 14.8, this may be nudged up after today.

MIN that we find credible -3.4 (Moore Park), likely to be amended -9.7 (Oak Park).

PRC 111% of normal with the southwest drier than average, all other areas a bit wetter.

SUN has averaged 115% of normal (692/600).

Update after two weeks ...

IMT on 6.7 C with this past week average 7.5, 0.9 below normal. (with the Oak Park error adjusted, 6.72 to 6.75 so perhaps 6.8). This looks like making a gradual rise into the mid 7 range in the coming week.

MAX remains at a vulnerable 15.4 waiting for a boost.

MIN is not yet confirmed to be the -3.4 reading at Moore Park, daily data has not changed for the spurious -9.7 Oak Park reading on 4th. Guessing that won't survive to the Monthly Summary.

PRC was 96% of normal with the week at 81%. However, today's rain would probably leave the monthly total around 120%. As not much more is expected this week, the average after three weeks might be back to where it was after two weeks with week three already guaranteed about 80% (most near 50% as only Cork of the eleven locations has seen really large totals today).

SUN has fallen to 89% with this past week only 62% (373/600). This value could begin to recover this week.

Updated scoring for the bonus, I think the two missing scores sank to the bottom of a long file and I must have deleted them along with the leftover spacing above them. Sorry about that JPmarn and Dasa29. Here's the confirmed bonus scoring then ...

BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 21.2 _ 0.0 _ 12.1 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

Dasa29 _______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________5

JPmarn _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

The month ended with these values ...

IMT was 9.0 (from 9.04) but probably should be 9.1 as Oak Park would be adjusted up 0.1-0.2.

MAX 23.4 and MIN -3.4 (to be confirmed).

PRC ended at 120% of normal.

SUN is estimated at 90%.

Based on these values, provisional scoring follows ...


Provisional scoring for April 2019

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Dublin 21st

Estimated values ________ 9.1_23.0_-3.4_120_090 __ 21.2C_0.0mm_12.1h

_______________________________________________________ TOTAL score


Tae laidir _______________23 _ 13*_ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 2 1 1 ________ 80

waterways ______________19 _ 17*_ 13 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 3 3 2 1 _______70

John Mac _______________19 _ 11*_ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 1 1 ________ 67

Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 24 _ 20*_ 06 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 3 2 1 __ 71-5 = 66

Mr Skinner _____________ 21 _ 01*_ 19 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 2 2 3 ________ 64

Jpmarn ________________ 16 _ 11*_ 14 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 1 2 2 ________62

200motels ______________16 _ 05*_ 17 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 2 3 3 1 ______ 60

Dacogawa ______________13 _ 07*_ 12 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 3 3 2 1 ______ 60

Rikand _________________24 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 3 3 2 ______ 56

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) ___17 _ 11*_ 15 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 3 3 3 2 _ 58-3= 55

sryanbruen _____________19 _ 00*_ 19 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 2 3 2 ________ 53

___ Con Sensus _________16 _ 05*_ 15 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 2 2 ________ 53

Artane2002 _____________16 _ 03*_ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 1 2 3 ________ 52

Joe Public ______________ 11 _ 14*_ 08 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 2 3 2 ________ 52

Sunflower3 _____________ 15 _ 06*_ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 1 ________ 52

Pauldry ________________ 11 _ 02*_ 14 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 3 3 3 2 ______ 51

DOCARCH ______________ 20 _ 01*_ 09 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 3 1 ______ 48

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 14 _ 00*_ 16 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 3 1 3 __ 50-2= 48

___ Normal ____________ 18 _ 05*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 1 1 1 ________ 48

Bsal __________________ 20 _ 00*_ 09 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 1 2 2 ________ 45

dasa29 ________________16 _ 05*_ 01 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 3 1 1 ________ 45

M.T. Cranium ___________14 _ 01*_ 18 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 1 1 2 ________ 45

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 1 3 1 ________ 44

YanSno ________________14 _ 05*_ 15 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 1 1 2 ________ 44

JCXBXC ________________11 _ 02*_ 03 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 1 1 1 ________ 38

mickger844posts ________ 06 _ 00*_ 09 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 1 3 1 ________ 33

________________________________________________________________________

Note:

* IMT went to minimum progression scoring but modified format as one raw score (Adam240610) was 18/20, this cut in half all other boosts from the minimum progression.
==================================================================

(Actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st

Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

________________________________________________________________________

As the minor changes to IMT and MAX would make for uniform changes to scoring, will leave as is, in the belief that Oak Park has been given an average based on the one large error (would then be 0.2 higher, overall IMT 9.08 rather than 9.04), and since the daily data says 23.0 for the same MAX that MS lists as 22.9, will take the 23.0 as correct unless I see the data adjusted. So for now will go with the provisional scoring as confirmed.

Here's the annual scoring update then ...


Annual scoring summary January to April 2019


(rank) _ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ 2019 TOTAL (and best 3/4)


_ 01 __ Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 ___ 300 ___ (233) _ 1

_ 02 __ Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 ___ 263 ___ (211) _ 2

_ 03 __ Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 ___ 253 ___ (194) _ 6t

_ 04 __ Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 ___ 245 ___ (197) _ 4t


_(05)__ Con Sensus_____________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 ___ 243 ___ (190)_(10t)


_ 05 __ DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 ___ 242 ___ (194) _ 6t

_ 06 __ Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 ___ 241 ___ (197) _ 4t

_ 07 __ john mac _______________49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 ___ 240 ___ (191) _ 8t

_ 08 __ 200motels ______________48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 ___ 238 ___ (190) _10

_ 09 __ MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 ___ 236 ___ (186) _11

_ 10 __ Jpmarn ________________ 69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 ___ 234 ___ (191) _ 8t

_ 11 __ Rikand _________________62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 ___ 231 ___ (175) _18

_ 12 __ pauldry ________________ 55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 ___ 228 ___ (177) _17

_t13 __ Bsal ___________________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 ___ 227 ___ (182) _13

_t13 __ waterways _____________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 ___ 227 ___ (208) _ 3

_ 15 __ dasa29 ________________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 ___ 224 ___ (179) _16

_ 16 __ JCX BXC _______________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 ___ 222 ___ (184) _12

_ 17 __ Dacogawa ______________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 ___ 221 ___ (180) _14t


_(18)__ NormaL ________________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 ___ 215 ___ (167) _(19)


_ 18 __ mickger844posts ________ 65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 ___ 213 ___ (180) _14t

_ 19 __ Artane2002 _____________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 ___ 206 ___ (160) _19

_ 20 __ M.T. Cranium ____________45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 ___ 203 ___ (158) _20t

_ 21 __ sryanbruen ______________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 ___ 192 ___ (151) _22

_ 22 __ Joe Public _______________62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 ___ 182 ___ (158) _20t

_t23 __ YanSno _________________62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 ___ 106 ___ (106) _23t

_t23 __ BLIZZARD7 _____________ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 ___ 106 ___ (106) _23t

_ 25 __ sdanseo ________________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- ____ 81

_ 26 __ bazlers _________________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- ____ 50

_ 27 __ Tazio __________________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- ____ 44

_ 28 __ derekon ________________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 39
_________________________________________________________________________

Congrats to tae laidir for winning April and moving further ahead in the annual contest.

The second total (best 3/4) and ranking gives a more accurate assessment of where you stand as the main contest uses only the ten best scores. Anyone who has missed three contests (including May) is not eligible so these best 3/4 totals and rankings are dropped after 23rd place. YanSno entered May and has missed two otherwise so his/her total is based on 2/4. That one compares more like middle of the pack for average but there's no help for any future low scores when you've missed two already.

The pack is very close now since (other than the leader) ... hmm let's see now tae laidir, the leidir, the leadir, the leader ... and yes I know what it actually means ... so other than tae laidir, most people who were second to about seventh last time had lower scores than the group behind them, so all are now jammed up in a tight chase pack.