Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

Oneiric 3 · 22-03-2020 6:41pm #1

A thread to discuss the rainfall patterns of the current year. This chart below shows the mean rainfall trend (expressed as the 28 day running percentage total) for Ireland (Rep) since the start of 2018:

As can been seen, and has been observed by many on this forum, dry spells (really anything below 75% of normal) have been increasingly short supply since late July last year right up to the present, with anomaly values up to 275% during late February/early March this year. Thankfully, the trend, as can be seen in the chart above, is now trending downwards and hopefully this will continue over the next few weeks. A long dry spell (as much as I hate them myself) is what is needed over Ireland right now to help dry out the land a bit and to add a bit of cheer to these bizarre times.

Data used is from Met Eireann.

Harry Palmr · 24-03-2020 4:56pm

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

Donegal Storm · 24-03-2020 9:19pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

Long, long, long overdue. Feels like we've really been made to pay for daring to have a nice summer in 2018.

At the moment the only thing of interest weather-wise for most of us is that its dry enough for a walk in the evening so a prolonged dry spell would do wonders

km79 · 24-03-2020 9:24pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

THE DROUGHT IS COMING

giveitholly · 25-03-2020 12:30am

km79 wrote: »

THE DROUGHT IS COMING

Could do with a shower to keep the dust down!!!

km79 · 25-03-2020 12:32am

giveitholly wrote: »

Could do with a shower to keep the dust down!!!

The land is parched

Oneiric 3 · 30-03-2020 9:47pm

If Casement comes in with a 0.0mm daily reading for today, then it will be the 13th consecutive totally dry day there. However, some trace amounts were recorded there today though so it remains to be seen if these have amounted to anything.

Either way, looks like the weather is set to gradually break down again from Thursday onwards with occasional spells of rain or showers over the weekend and into next week. Pity really, place is just beginning to show signs of drying out here in the west. Really could do with another week or two of dry, breezy weather to set things back to normal again.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-03-2020 6:37am

How are the Shannon flood areas doing now? Are they still under water?

Harry Palmr · 31-03-2020 11:16am

I'd say most are, I went past a standard field in East Waterford the other day that was still part submerged, so flood plains will still be sodden till June regardless.

sryanbruen · 02-04-2020 10:09pm

Both Casement and D.A. had absolute droughts from 18 March to 1 April, bang on 15 days. This spell was broken today though with some afternoon light rain.

Unsure on other stations.

uck51js9zml2yt · 02-04-2020 11:10pm

Some light rain tonight in North Kerry. Been dry the last 2 weeks

sryanbruen · 06-04-2020 1:33pm

MÉ did a post on the absolute drought and dry spell. 4 synoptic stations (including the 3 Dublin stations) had absolute drought conditions and 11 synoptic stations had a dry spell.

https://www.met.ie/climatological-droughts-and-dry-spells-2020

Harry Palmr · 13-04-2020 10:25am

Watching the pressure charts on ECM and GSF has been interesting. While it's silly to predict a season ahead from rolling 10 days charts a broad pattern, feel, vibe (are vibes allowed in meteorological science?) seems to becoming apparent - that the Atlantic conveyor belt has been forced away on a split jetstream so HP originating in the Azores builds, weakens, moves about a bit but comes back into play.

nacho libre · 13-04-2020 11:26am

Harry Palmr wrote: »

seems to becoming apparent - that the Atlantic conveyor belt has been forced away on a split jetstream so HP originating in the Azores builds, weakens, moves about a bit but comes back into play.

It's all down to the Polar Vortex realeasing its grip and saying goodbye for another year. It's not uncommon at this time of year for a meandering azores high to keep paying us a visit, or for pressure to eventually rise towards Greenland, when the Polar Vortex breaks up completely.

I wonder will we soon see posts complaining that we badly need rain. Who'd have thought that was likely back in February.

Harry Palmr · 13-04-2020 11:38am

We badly need rain

Well some anyway - we got nothing yesterday in the SE and as things stand Friday is only a 50/50 by which point it'll be over three weeks without rain worth measuring.

Oneiric 3 · 14-04-2020 10:29am

Cumulative rainfall total (national mean) for April so far compared with the average for the previous 10 years. Despite some moderate totals in the south of the country over last weekend, we are still running well below normal broadly speaking:

Current national total stands at 15.7mm. Dry weather is expected to continue up to about Thursday but the risk of some rain or showers in places at times increases again towards the coming weekend.

Data C/O Met Eireann.

pauldry · 14-04-2020 1:30pm

Ridiculous having a drought thread after 7 straight months of floods. Surely theres no concerns yet.

Maybe by June if still low it might be an issue but we are owed 210 dry days after that Autumn and Winter

RobertKK · 14-04-2020 2:46pm

pauldry wrote: »

Ridiculous having a drought thread after 7 straight months of floods. Surely theres no concerns yet.

Maybe by June if still low it might be an issue but we are owed 210 dry days after that Autumn and Winter

Land can dry out very fast this time of year.

There is a saying for next month: 'A wet and windy May fills the barns with corn and hay'.

pauldry · 15-04-2020 9:20am

Theres another saying

"Once you worry about rain in Ireland itl piss for 6 months on end"

So let's pretend it's raining

Oneiric 3 · 15-04-2020 2:21pm

Running 28 day national % total running at just 37% as of yesterday, which is the lowest figure since January 20th, 2019.

Thought I'd post that gif just to piss off Pauldry some more.

Oneiric 3 · 19-04-2020 6:13pm

Updated rainfall chart for April up to yesterday:

Still running well below normal broadly speaking. A few showers around this evening, and maybe at times over the coming week, but a lot of dry weather still on the cards for most places for the next five days or so. This morning's model projections regarding rainfall totals for the coming week:

Not to be taken literally, but give a good indication that rainfall amounts will be scant at best this week.

Data above is c/o Met Eireann.

pauldry · 20-04-2020 11:24am

Was surprised to see the lake 1.9km from my home so low yesterday

Jesus in this country it pi$$es rain for 7 months with floods and in a couple of weeks it's all gone.

Probably the constant wind

Desert days may not be far

Oneiric 3 · 23-04-2020 2:10pm

Rainfall totals from all of the reporting Met Eireann stations for this April thus far:

Broadly speaking, the Greater Dublin region has seen the least amount of rain, while parts of the south and southwest have seen the most.

Note that these values are taken from a combination of data from the 'Yesterday's Weather and 'Daily data' from the Met Eireann website, so may conflict a little with the values as shown on their actual monthly totals page. I don't know why that is, but it is what it is.

But as already stated, data is c/o Met Eireann.

Oneiric 3 · 26-04-2020 4:59pm

Met Eireann map showing rainfall totals over the last 7 days:

Completely dry in most places with only spits and spots in the wetter regions. Taken an a nationwide whole, only around 3 to 4% of average rainfall has fallen in the last week.

Latest model outlook for the next 3 days showing the forecast 24 hr running totals (in one hour increments). Increasing chance of some scattered showers breaking out from about here on in up to Tuesday, with the chance of something a bit more substantial from Wednesday onwards.

As always, forecast distribution of rainfall and totals not to be taken at face value as details will change with each passing run.

Danno · 26-04-2020 9:45pm

Just 18.5mm in south Laois this April. Only a passing misty-drizzle shower for a few minutes here this evening.

SleetAndSnow · 26-04-2020 11:56pm

51.45mm or so here in cork city. Less then the last two years, more then 2017! Had a heavy shower today and a long period of drizzle

Neddyusa · 28-04-2020 12:54am

Danno wrote: »

Just 18.5mm in south Laois this April. Only a passing misty-drizzle shower for a few minutes here this evening.

Someone just turned off the tap here on Paddys Day. Only 13mm since. Some turnaround after what went before!

ednwireland · 28-04-2020 9:37am

SW donegal i have 9.6mm registered for april, unheard of. a bit of very light rain yesterday thats it

pauldry · 30-04-2020 10:16am

"Up" to 15.4mm of rain for April in Sligo after 235mm in February. Today's the last day so barely 20mm will be our lot.

Why is April always so dry and August ALWAYS wet?

I guess August is monsoon season now after heat builds in June and July or whatever youd call heat. I think the only way to get a dry August is a washout in June and July.

April has been extremely Sunny in Sligo too.

BrianD3 · 03-05-2020 1:51pm

Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

SouthWesterly · 03-05-2020 9:40pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

Ive a field of grass a local is taking hay off. Very little growth. We need some rain. Had 3mm in the last week.

Oneiric 3 · 04-05-2020 2:59pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

Met Eireann have a few SMD maps (along with their 'farming commentary') at the bottom of this page here:

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs

You'll probably have to zoom in though to read any of those map values.

pauldry · 05-05-2020 10:27am

What's the lowest SMD on record?

Was it that dry Summer a couple of years ago or 1976?

Harry Palmr · 05-05-2020 1:04pm

Looking at those maps it's a wonder they have a notion whats happening in 95% of Munster.

pauldry · 07-05-2020 11:15am

Oh it rained just there bringing the gauge up to 26mm......since March 18th!!

highdef · 07-05-2020 11:37am

Technically this is dual post as I have just posted the same in the Spring discussion thread however I forgot about this thread and my message would be more suitable here so here we go again. Mods, please feel free to remove my duplicate post in the Spring discussion thread.

I see that soil moisture deficits have now exceeded 50mm in the Dublin region and are close to exceeding that in many eastern parts. That is pretty extreme for the time of year. With little rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future combined with the fact that we are still 6 weeks from the summer solstice (so therefore the potential for the sun to dry the ground out at ever faster rates increases for another 6 weeks, based on sun strength alone) means that we are at a very high risk of entering a severe drought this summer should current rainfall trends continue.

Thankfully, by typing out this very message I have probably jinxed the whole summer and it will be a complete washout

Oneiric 3 · 07-05-2020 12:26pm

highdef wrote: »

Technically this is dual post as I have just posted the same in the Spring discussion thread however I forgot about this thread and my message would be more suitable here so here we go again. Mods, please feel free to remove my duplicate post in the Spring discussion thread.

I see that soil moisture deficits have now exceeded 50mm in the Dublin region and are close to exceeding that in many eastern parts. That is pretty extreme for the time of year. With little rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future combined with the fact that we are still 6 weeks from the summer solstice (so therefore the potential for the sun to dry the ground out at ever faster rates increases for another 6 weeks, based on sun strength alone) means that we are at a very high risk of entering a severe drought this summer should current rainfall trends continue.

Thankfully, by typing out this very message I have probably jinxed the whole summer and it will be a complete washout

Most certainly we are going through a fairly extended dry spell now, but it is interesting to note that regarding the running 3 month (91 days) and annual (365 days) percentage totals, we are still way in excess, with values of 135% and 123% respectively. If there is any truth to the idea that nature will always balance itself out, then a extended dry spell running into the Summer months is more than overdue to address this imbalance.

But as we also know, nature rarely works that cleanly.

Harry Palmr · 07-05-2020 1:32pm

The next week is basically dry, even last night turned out to be very modest as far as I can see.

As for balancing out if you look at the historical records on met.ie, the station nearest me (Johnstown Castle) pretty much ends up with a 1100mm of rain every year but of course that's missing the point - it's the unreliable and extreme peaks and troughs that do the damage.

Neddyusa · 08-05-2020 12:26am

Posted this in the spring thread but more relevant here:

The one "wet day" in the forecast returned a total of 1.5mm here in Roscommon.
Only 43mm here since Paddys Day (and 30mm of that fell last Thursday)

Unusually, its been the west and north-west thats been the driest since March.

Anyone farming on light soils is going to need all those leftover 2019 bales!

Oneiric 3 · 08-05-2020 10:31am

Neddyusa wrote: »

Posted this in the spring thread but more relevant here:

The one "wet day" in the forecast returned a total of 1.5mm here in Roscommon.
Only 43mm here since Paddys Day (and 30mm of that fell last Thursday)

Unusually, its been the west and north-west thats been the driest since March.

Anyone farming on light soils is going to need all those leftover 2019 bales!

I think the Dublin region is driest of all NeddyUSA, but considering that this notable dry spell (perhaps not for the far south) is occurring in what is already, on average, the driest period of the year, really shows just what little rainfall there has been over the bulk of the country over the last 6 weeks or so.

Chances of some more showers over the next few days but looks like more dry weather for much of next week, added with a stiff wind at times that will only enhance evaporation rates even further.

pauldry · 08-05-2020 12:06pm

Yeah we got 2.5mm out of yesterdays rain and 5.5mm when roscommon had 30mm. Still a few showers over weekend. Things not drastic here yet but at lake you can walk into pier as no water like before. In February the pier was almost under water. How things change. Grass a bit yellow too

SleetAndSnow · 08-05-2020 12:16pm

37.4mm here in cork city so far this month, similar to last year with 41mm. Looks to be the highest in the country. Very interesting seeing the differences across the country let alone the county because Moore park only recorded 15.7mm!

giveitholly · 08-05-2020 4:09pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

37.4mm here in cork city so far this month, similar to last year with 41mm. Looks to be the highest in the country. Very interesting seeing the differences across the country let alone the country because Moore park only recorded 15.7mm!

And I recorded 8.2mm so far this month about 25 miles further north than moorepark

RobertKK · 08-05-2020 5:04pm

Since St Patrick's day, just 37.8mm here in north Kilkenny. 0.6mm for this month.
I miss the rain :P

Mortelaro · 08-05-2020 6:21pm

Since april 1st,44.4mm recorded at my station in Arklow
3mm of that since may 1st

silverharp · 08-05-2020 6:37pm

what are reservoir levels like? I assume consumption of water is down?

Donegal Storm · 08-05-2020 9:49pm

Haven't got any stats locally but Finner, my nearest station, has only 26.6mm since March 18th

Doesn't look like much more than the odd shower or drizzle for the foreseeable either and models have been consistently overplaying what ends up falling

SouthWesterly · 08-05-2020 10:24pm

I've had 2mm in North Kerry this, month.

Oneiric 3 · 10-05-2020 3:08pm

Met Eireann rainfall maps for the last 7 days.

Total 7 day rainfall:

Expressed as percentage for the period:

As is the recent trend, the south of the country is wetter than the north, while the east remains driest of all.

Outlook for the coming working week is for more generally dry weather. A few showers here and there cannot be ruled out at times, especially for the northern third of the country, but they are unlikely be of much intrinsic value to growers and gardeners. EPS forecast totals for the next 5 days:

A chance maybe of something more substantial towards or over next weekend maybe as high pressure declines a little, but if the longer term forecasts are to be believed, then then we could be looking at a continuation of these drier than normal conditions for the 2 weeks at least. Longer term forecast rainfall anomaly up to May 25th for example.

Best eyed with much sceptism at this stage however.

SouthWesterly · 10-05-2020 11:49pm

Had 20 mm yesterday in an hour.

pauldry · 11-05-2020 10:17am

Yellow grass getting more widespread now. Especially when cut.

Noticed that when walking over the yellow grass while social distancing from people it seemed to retain the heat from Saturday. Maybe that's why it was 13c yesterday and not 7 or 8c like they predicted.

Frost last night has killed more grass too.

Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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