Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

darkman2 · 14-01-2011 7:53pm #1

Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

14-01-2011 7:55pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

Thanks for the Update. MT posted an update earlier this evening, saying pretty much same.

14-01-2011 7:58pm

Personally I hope we do get some more wintry weather.

jimmynippy · 14-01-2011 8:00pm

That was some change on the 12z ECM compared to the earlier output.

mike65 · 14-01-2011 8:00pm

LOL Had to happen...sits back and waits.

Musicman2000 · 14-01-2011 8:05pm

Both the ECM and GFS on board major turn around from yesterday

BLIZZARD7 · 14-01-2011 8:07pm

Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs -

Dan :cool:

John.Icy · 14-01-2011 8:12pm

Best ECM run of the year...I might even say the Decade

:D

Musicman2000 · 14-01-2011 8:15pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs -

Dan :cool:

Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

BLIZZARD7 · 14-01-2011 8:24pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely...

If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.

Dan

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2011 8:31pm

The two main models now offer two different ways to get back into winter, GFS from the north, ECM from the east. I think we can assume that there is a strong signal present now for trough development over the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. Details may be a compromise of the two models, but Sunday is likely to be the last mild day for a while. Next week looks like a transitional phase with high pressure keeping things colder but not severely cold, then that gets out of the way for something of more arctic origins.

Well, mods, you've had a nice rest, anyway.

nacho libre · 14-01-2011 8:33pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

Some of them would have doubted the cold spell that started last November. Although to be fair the upstream pattern this time is far less favourable for that ecm chart to verify. So that's why some are doubtful. Let's just hope that chart, or rather a chart similar to it, continues to reappear over the coming days.

nacho libre · 14-01-2011 8:40pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely...

If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.

Dan

What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

derekon · 14-01-2011 8:42pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

Hey Darkman2,

First up, I love your posts and will always click on a thread that you start or to which you make a contribution. However, there can be a slight tendancy to ramp, particularly at the prospect of snow. Reading your post above, I could not but help thining you would have preferred to have the following as the thread's title:

"Widespread Snow & Blizzards next week with -10oC temps widespread"

I am taking the p**s

. Please don't let last week's failed snow prediction (for the east coast and midlands) dampen your spirit of enthusiasm. I want the real Darkman2 back!

On a serious note though, between the recent posts over on TWO and MT's post at 6pm tonight, it would appear the model runs are now moving towards another cold spell breaking out in the last week of January. If these indications are still in place and building by this Monday / Tuesday, we could be indeed heading back to a period of snow indeed. Interesting few days ahead :cool:

BLIZZARD7 · 14-01-2011 8:57pm

nacho libre wrote: »

What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

MJO = Madden/Julian Oscillation

Forecast to go into phase 7 -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

Dan

MiNdGaM3 · 15-01-2011 12:40am

nacho libre wrote: »

What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

The MJO composites are here if you want them http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

Flan_Da_Man125 · 15-01-2011 4:28am

anyone hazard a guess on the percentage chances of severe cold weather returning??

Danno · 15-01-2011 5:10am

85%

Kippure · 15-01-2011 12:40pm

Danno wrote: »

85%

86% :P

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2011 1:09pm

a real sudden shift towards a potential easterly and it has really come out of the blue for many, i was cautiously watching it over the last 3 days but the models didn't want to play ball but it appears very possible that we could potentially in an easterly in 4-5 days.

However the most likely option is the easterly only really affects England with high pressure domination here, however the trend is your friend and it is lookint increasing possible.

That this could be the weather synoptic chart for next Thursday!
(ENS member of the GFS 6z!)

gens-14-1-126.png?6

200motels · 15-01-2011 1:44pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

a real sudden shift towards a potential easterly and it has really come out of the blue for many, i was cautiously watching it over the last 3 days but the models didn't want to play ball but it appears very possible that we could potentially in an easterly in 4-5 days.

However the most likely option is the easterly only really affects England with high pressure domination here, however the trend is your friend and it is lookint increasing possible.

That this could be the weather synoptic chart for next Thursday!
(ENS member of the GFS 6z!)

It looks good from this far out but as we all know things will change hopefully for the better.

MiNdGaM3 · 15-01-2011 2:07pm

A handful of ensemble members bring in very cold air in around 10 days time, these are, of course, still in the minority though.

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2011 2:10pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

A handful of ensemble members bring in very cold air in around 10 days time, these are, of course, still in the minority though.

You are looking to far ahead, the real exciting period is the 108-144hr period where big changes are occurring that could potentially lead to a sudden return to cold.

MiNdGaM3 · 15-01-2011 2:33pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

You are looking to far ahead, the real exciting period is the 108-144hr period where big changes are occurring that could potentially lead to a sudden return to cold.

That's true, but really it's only P14 that has a significant snow risk. The rest that are cold are generally dry, but I'm sure that would still be welcomed by many!
I might feel a bit more optimistic if the other models begin to trend cold, but even the ECM op was at the lower end of its ensembles before t144.

patneve2 · 15-01-2011 3:57pm

Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

nacho libre · 15-01-2011 4:21pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

yeah it does seem as if there is little chance the high will be able to move far enough to the northwest in order to open the door to the greenland express. i recall you mentioned a while back this was your concern going into January.
we may get a scandi high but it's a big ask for the siberian high to come far enough west to link up with it. the siberian high rarely comes far enough west to influence our weather in a meaningful way

patneve2 · 15-01-2011 4:26pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yeah it does seem as if there is little chance the high will be able to move far enough to the northwest in order to open the door to the greenland express. i recall you mentioned a while back this was your concern going into January.
we may get a scandi high but it's a big ask for the siberian high to come far enough west to link up with it. the siberian high rarely comes far enough west to influence our weather in a meaningful way

True, Siberian highs influencing our shores have always been very rare, and they even seem to be getting rarer...might as well build a time machine and travel back to the eighties...:D

scary · 15-01-2011 4:42pm

Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.

Deep Easterly · 15-01-2011 4:42pm

ECWMF 00z Ensemble mean chart at 240hrs:

There has been reasonable consistancy in the ECMWF En means over the last couple of days that fairly strong ridging will take place to the west or north-west of Ireland in the last 3rd of the month while troughing deepens a little over central Europe. This morning's deterministic run not all that far removed from ensemble mean chart above. 850's temp forecast suggests average to cool tempeatures (between 0c and -4c) while rainfall amounts look to continue to run below normal. Will be interesting to see how later runs are handling this situation but so far, so cool.

Image source: European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts

WalterMitty · 15-01-2011 5:12pm

scary wrote: »

Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.

Ask the Donegal postman! Ah but seriously , too far away to know, keep checking here and have plans made in case of worst case scenario.

patneve2 · 15-01-2011 7:39pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!

NIALL D · 15-01-2011 8:04pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!

will be interesting to say the least

thorninmyside · 15-01-2011 10:27pm

Hi, am new on here but check out Accuweather's 15 day forecast. Indicates some snow coming back end January but too early to tell I suppose! Would be great if it came back.

:D:D

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

Duiske · 15-01-2011 10:43pm

thorninmyside wrote: »

Hi, am new on here but check out Accuweather's 15 day forecast. Indicates some snow coming back end January but too early to tell I suppose! Would be great if it came back. :D:D

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

Just to add, the following is from Joe B's accuweather blog. Not much info to go on though.

SATURDAY EVENING

HOORAY.. I DO SEE SOME COLD AIR COMING BACK

Calm down, if the pattern is back and forth, it has to get colder again and it will.

In any case, look for colder to start showing up again a week or so from now. This will not be as long or strong as the cold we went through in December, but enough to remind you that it is winter and it can snow, in case you have forgotten. I wanted to give you a heads up on all this, okay.

This is for the northwest, still looks warm further south and east.

16-01-2011 11:09am

All Bastardi is doing is looking at fi in the models,not much more.
Currently the cold idea in fi has been dropped in favour of the high sticking around and in the case of one of them eventually moving south west not northwest.

At this rate it will stay bland to mid february at least,no cold and atlantic domination.
Could all be a different outlook tomorrow,next week or the week after.
Who knows,models don't.They present something new every day from 96hrs onwards and what use is that exactly...

lucernarian · 16-01-2011 2:34pm

I don't know what this winter is going to do to my exams... I'm going to have to start threads ramping up my chances of passing the year whenever the models suggest wet and mild weather on the way!

nacho libre · 16-01-2011 4:20pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!

As feared the ecm ditched it and more or less has fallen in line with the GFS. The ecm has been rather disappointing lately, throwing up tasty charts only to ditch them on the next run.
The way it's going at the moment, Glacier Point looks to be right about a high located near to Ireland and UK going into February. Unfortunately, unless we see a pattern change up north in the next two or three days, it's really hard to see the high doing anything other than sinking south. The best chance now for anything wintry seems to be if energy is able to ride over the top of the high and we end up with brief cold north westerlies. The idea of sustained cold look even more remote at the moment.
I hope i'll be eating my words in a few days, though:)

Musicman2000 · 16-01-2011 4:26pm

nacho libre wrote: »

As feared the ecm ditched it and more or less has fallen in line with the GFS. The ecm has been rather disappointing lately, throwing up tasty charts only to ditch them on the next run.
The way it's going at the moment, Glacier Point looks to be right about a high located near to Ireland and UK going into February. Unfortunately, unless we see a pattern change up north in the next two or three days, it's really hard to see the high doing anything other than sinking south. The best chance now for anything wintry seems to be if energy is able to ride over the top of the high and we get end up with brief cold north westerlies. The idea of sustained cold look even more remote at the moment.
I hope i'll be eating my words in a few days, though:)

Looks like it could be a very boring few weeks:(

nacho libre · 16-01-2011 4:35pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Looks like it could be a very boring few weeks:(

Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!

Min · 16-01-2011 5:01pm

The mild air is great. Did anyone see the farming forecast on RTE? Soil temperatures in the south and west are at 6 to 7C, grass starts growing at 6C so this mild weather has been phenomenal given the sheer cold we experienced in December.

The weather is great at the moment.

lucernarian · 16-01-2011 5:11pm

It's unfortunate that the rain is bearing down so much on the west coast. Flooding there while there's been insignificant rain this month along the east coast, barring a handful of days!

Elmer Blooker · 16-01-2011 5:42pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!

It's tragic to see such a blocking high going to waste, places like Rome and Madrid should see some wintry weather over the next two weeks or probably throughout Feb.
I remember one of Joe B's winter forecasts a few months ago when he said the real cold would be over Southern Europe while our part of the world and Scandinavia would have above average temps. Looks like that's the pattern for the rest of the winter.
These big winter anticyclones hang around for weeks, example: the winter of 1991/2

dsmythy · 16-01-2011 6:42pm

So looks like we have our blocking high. Right over us...... Might as well enjoy the benign weather until the next event.

nacho libre · 16-01-2011 6:46pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It's tragic to see such a blocking high going to waste, places like Rome and Madrid should see some wintry weather over the next two weeks or probably throughout Feb.
I remember one of Joe B's winter forecasts a few months ago when he said the real cold would be over Southern Europe while our part of the world and Scandinavia would have above average temps. Looks like that's the pattern for the rest of the winter.
These big winter anticyclones hang around for weeks, example: the winter of 1991/2

Ah yeah:( It would seem if we want to experience a winter in Ireland that stays mostly cold and snowy throughout we need to travel back in time to 1947:(

16-01-2011 6:53pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!

Theres a pile of it in the corner of the courthouse carpark in Arklow if you want some? It's a man made pile from the clearing of the carpark before Xmas but it's still there solid as a rock...and you know what they say about snow that lies around...

bcmf · 16-01-2011 7:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

...and you know what they say about snow that lies around...

errrrr..No!!!

GSF · 16-01-2011 7:26pm

Min wrote: »

The mild air is great. Did anyone see the farming forecast on RTE? Soil temperatures in the south and west are at 6 to 7C, grass starts growing at 6C so this mild weather has been phenomenal given the sheer cold we experienced in December.

The weather is great at the moment.

Time to get the lawn mower serviced

roryc1 · 16-01-2011 7:50pm

ECM showing a northeasterly at 168z with low 850h temps http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2011 7:54pm

I know in this day and age 168hrs is still very much FI but hey we need a bit of cheering up!

16-01-2011 8:29pm

Not too cheery Beasterly when theres still a high pressure sitting bang on top of those uppers.
To be honest,the ecm and all models beyond 96 look to me like they've the high in all sorts of elongated unusual shapes.
Thats a sure sign to me that they don't know what to do with it.
Highs like the one thats coming do have a tendency to meander round a long time though.
A cóck block to the cold so to speak.

lucernarian · 16-01-2011 8:39pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Not too cheery Beasterly when theres still a high pressure sitting bang on top of those uppers.
To be honest,the ecm and all models beyond 96 look to me like they've the high in all sorts of elongated unusual shapes.
Thats a sure sign to me that they don't know what to do with it.
Highs like the one thats coming do have a tendency to meander round a long time though.
A cóck block to the cold so to speak.

True enough. The biggest hope I have is that it doesn't take much for such a forecasted HP keeping the snow away to change to a nearby HP advecting lots of very cold air from the northeast.

Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

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