Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

darkman2 · 19-12-2010 5:38am #1

Hi all, latest 00z runs suggest that this very cold weather will continue for the forseeable future. Heavy snow is likely in the East and South - Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly disruptive. But there will be dry, sunny and icy weather too. Frost and ice won't thaw for the next week at least. Temperatures will be generally below freezing both day and night.

Please continue the long range discussion here.

Grim. · 19-12-2010 5:47am

potentially the first white Christmas i will see in my life not quite the same now I'm 24 but the nieces and nephews should be happy

just need to get the shoppping ect sorted

darkman2 · 19-12-2010 6:06am

It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.

derekon · 19-12-2010 8:20am

darkman2 wrote: »

It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.

Hi Darkman,

The past few days have been a snowfest for the folks in the north and west of Ireland (who deserved the snow after what the East got a few weeks back!)

However, its been very disappointing for the East Coast / Dublin where a good deal of snow was forecast to fall by different sources - in reality around 0.001mm of snow has fallen. As someone from Dublin described it yesterday, it looks like a "heavy frost".

MT's forecast this morning does not instill much confidence for snow either. Its peppered with qualifications such as "possible". In fairness to MT though, he is working with models that are all over the place, thus rendering his daily forecasts very tricky / difficult to nail down.

My own gut feeling is that for folks in Leinster / Dublin, we might see the odd snow shower over the coming week. Just a pity that all the negative dew points over the past couple of days have gone to waste

Elmo5 · 19-12-2010 9:12am

Indeed, I can't see any more snow for the east coast with the cold spell. No streamers from the irish sea developing and the one that did stand a chance yesterday when the wind changed fast became weak before it reached us.

GFS is showing some for mid week but I dont' see that materialising as it's been forecasting east coast snow all along but the closer we get it downgrades significantly. It's also forecasting rain all over Ireland for Stephen's day.

Delighted for the people in the west and south though, they really do deserve a good run of it!

mac80 · 19-12-2010 10:17am

We got a decent covering of snow in Dundalk last night, easily a few cm's.
Strange snow though, its more like hail than snow. Roads are lethal

LavaLamp · 19-12-2010 10:27am

I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!

lucy2010 · 19-12-2010 11:43am

Thanks Darkman for starting this one. Problem im finding is trying to trawl through the pages of nonsense to find whats actually happening. The will it snow at 7pm on my doorstep posts are getting annoying.

I for one just want to know whats the outlook; Yes it may not happen but at least we can be prepared ...

Woke this morning to a covering here on the coast ... biterly cold. Significant other now stuck in UK indeffinitely . 1 Very cranky mammy here with 3 kids & NO christmas tree......

Thanks again

DOCARCH · 19-12-2010 11:50am

No sign of a Christmas Day warm up (for the east coast anyway) on the 06z run. Still looking dry but cold.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2010 12:01pm

The 06z GFS run, if it has finally found the acorn (blind squirrel etc) confirms the idea that this cold spell won't relent very easily. There isn't really an above normal day on the run, let alone a breakdown. I think weather forecasters around the region are going to have the breakdowns before the weather does at this rate.

Anyway, I hold out some hope for snow for just about all regions between now and Christmas, based on the concept I explained once before in another thread.

Suppose you have four or five days in a row with "slight chances" of something happening, in this case snow. Is it therefore true to say there is a slight chance of that happening any time in the four or five days?

No, and here's why, using the laws of probability.

I'll take as my example a theoretical 20% chance of snow from streamers any day now to Friday, that's six days, each with a 20% chance of snow. In fact the chances might be better than that, but I'll show that even with this rather grim negative-sounding assessment, you would probably get snow.

The probability chances of getting no snow in just three days, using that 20% figure, is this:

1.0 - (.8 x .8 x .8) =

1.0 - (.512) = .488

In other words, your chances of missing snow every day for three days in that sort of framework, would be 51.2% giving you a 48.8% chance to see snow. For six days, that reduces to a mere 26% chance of avoiding snow and a 74% chance of seeing snow.

In other words, a long-duration marginal setup usually delivers. Which day it delivers, makes for very difficult forecasting. But would look for the day with the strongest wind gradient from the best direction as your odds-makers' favourite. Personally, I think it will snow eventually just about everywhere in this set-up. But it will be dry most of the time too. The combination should suit everyone, the snow fancier, the merchant, the person who needs to travel -- let's hope everyone feels they got what they wanted for Christmas.

Brenireland · 19-12-2010 12:08pm

well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

irish1967 · 19-12-2010 12:08pm

LavaLamp wrote: »

I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!

And just where is this mysterious no snow zone...? Slide in your location under your name and maybe someone will be able to tell you whether your snow shiels will hold.

desolate sun · 19-12-2010 12:14pm

Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

hotwhiskey · 19-12-2010 12:57pm

Brenireland wrote: »

well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

I wouldn't be so sure Bren if you are taking Joe prediction i wouldn't go running to the bookies. So far Joe has got the weather in these parts this winter wrong. I like Joe forcasts but the modules are prolonging the cold spell and yes and on into January.

ciaran67 · 19-12-2010 1:04pm

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

I know, bit more wishful thinking than correct predictions. Thought we were going to get tons of the white stuff. Hey ho... roll on warmer weather please!

peasant · 19-12-2010 1:44pm

Metcheck shows this for Sligo:

Now, I know, it's "only" Metcheck and it's usually wrong ...but feck me ....that's COLD ! :eek:

Musicman2000 · 19-12-2010 1:57pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all, latest 00z runs suggest that this very cold weather will continue for the forseeable future. Heavy snow is likely in the East and South - Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly disruptive. But there will be dry, sunny and icy weather too. Frost and ice won't thaw for the next week at least. Temperatures will be generally below freezing both day and night.

Please continue the long range discussion here.

Just saw the snow threat your talking about on the Hirlam Model, but will prob change again, if that did come off the east and south would be buried:)

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 3:12pm

Brenireland wrote: »

well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

He came on board in the end. he said December would be around normal in his original long range forecast. of course a wonky clock is right twice a day, so if he keeps saying it's going to get milder he'll be right eventually. anyway you seem to have changed your tune, you are not a true snow fan. you disappoint me Bren:(

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 3:27pm

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

that was an unrealistic expectation in terms of snow. 1947 was a once off - 30 snow days out of 50 consecutive cold days there were in 1947. that's not happening again, and in all honesty, even as die hard snow fan i wouldn't want to see a re- run of 1947. it would be just too much for this country to deal with right now on top of everything else.

as for 1962/63
This December is currently colder than 62-63, again it doesn't compare in terms of snow depth, still in saying that i've had more snow than i've ever seen in my life, and parts of the east had even more. so it's easily the greatest December for snow in over 20 years, at least for the north and west anyway.
I think we'll only really appreciate its significance in the years to come when we're back to weeks and weeks of mild south westerlies and relying on a two day northerly for snow

Pangea · 19-12-2010 4:28pm

nacho libre wrote: »

even as die hard snow fan i wouldn't want to see a re- run of 1947.

Youre not a true die hard snow fan then like me

:pac:

nacho libre wrote: »

1947 was a once off - 30 snow days out of 50 consecutive cold days there were in 1947. that's not happening again,

Once offs are once offs till they happen twice

Anything is possible with Nature

thetonynator · 19-12-2010 5:01pm

GFS 06z had a very slight snow risk every day from now until christmas,(for the east) turning to rain at christmas. Of course we all know the GFS is extremely unreliable at the moment, but going by MT's probablility stats, . .. i know i'm clutching at straws, but i really really really want a white christmas ( doesn't have to be significant accumulations or anything) and the dusting here (0.5cms) is not likely to last that long, a little bit melts every day in the sun. And i dont think a dusting counts as a white christmas anyway!!! . . .time to start praying for strong streamers . . .

Mayo Exile · 19-12-2010 5:29pm

12Z GFS is similar now to the ECMWF in anticipating a warming trend for Xmas Day. But as with all the model runs for the last few days, terms & conditions apply!!

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 5:36pm

Pangea wrote: »

Youre not a true die hard snow fan then like me :pac:

Once offs are once offs till they happen twice
Anything is possible with Nature

haha. perhaps not:D

yes, it's possible we could see another winter like 1947 in your lifetime, it's also possible you'll win the lotto. on the balance of probability, though, it won't happen again in our lifetime.

Musicman2000 · 19-12-2010 5:44pm

NAE for Tuesday, take it with the smallest pinch of salt you can:D

th3 s1aught3r · 19-12-2010 6:07pm

peasant wrote: »

Metcheck shows this for Sligo:

Now, I know, it's "only" Metcheck and it's usually wrong ...but feck me ....that's COLD ! :eek:

That is damn cold alright
Anyone know what the Irish temperature records are ?, we must be near breaking some records in 2010

snow ghost · 19-12-2010 7:08pm

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

I have to say that I found the expert forecasts here - such as M.T.‘s - remarkably accurate, especially given the constraints of predicting the future of anything, let alone the dynamic and unpredictability of the weather.

I think people - myself included - sometimes like to read forecasts with a bias to what they are hoping what will happen, more than what is actually being said. E.g. I don’t think any of the experts here actually said it would be ‘snowmageddon‘.

I’ve also said it many times here before - based on experience (living in Britain) and instinct - when snowmageddon does decide to pay us a visit it won’t be giving us much prior notice, it will turn up on our doorsteps at the last moment, Mother nature will turn heel at the last moment and unleash her white fury and we wont see it coming.

Takca · 19-12-2010 7:20pm

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

In sligo as well (ballymote) and I have in total of 13cm on top of a car that hasn't moved all week, I'm not sure by how much but the bottom must have compacted a little. Not Snowmageddon but just goes to show the difference you can expect in different part of the county.

fjon · 19-12-2010 7:46pm

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

That is damn cold alright
Anyone know what the Irish temperature records are ?, we must be near breaking some records in 2010

This is from the met eireann site. Still possible the record could be broken.

Regarding extremes, the highest air temperature recorded in Ireland was + 33.3°C at Kilkenny Castle 26th June 1887. The record maximum during the 20th century is +32.5°C at Boora, Co. Offaly on 29th June 1976. The lowest air temperature was -19.1°C measured at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on 16th January 1881 while the lowest observed 20th century air temperature was -18.8°C recorded at Lullymore, Co. Kildare on 2nd January 1979. The lowest observed grass minimum temperature was -19.6°C at Dublin (Glasnevin) on 12th January 1982 which was almost matched by the -19.5°C measured at Lullymore, Co. Kildare on 2nd January 1979.

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 7:47pm

I regret to say the uk met office outlook is very bad - if you are a cold and snow enthusiast - after Christmas Day. They are saying it will be unsettled with a gradual return to normal temperatures after Christmas Day and it will stay that way well into January.

I know some of us might want to dismiss this as too far out to be sure about, but remember they were right about the cold taking hold, when some of the models weren't having it, and the cold continuing throughout December despite the wavering from the various models.

It's also worth remembering M.T. in his long range forecast did say he expected milder weather, possibly very mild, to take hold in early January for a week or possibly two at least. This is similar to what the uk met office is now saying in their 16-30 day outlook.

I would love if they were wrong but i don't think they are:(
If they are right let's just hope the cold goes out with a bang rather than a whimper.

snow ghost · 19-12-2010 7:57pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I regret to say the uk met office outlook is very bad - if you are a cold and snow enthusiast - after Christmas Day. They are saying it will be unsettled with a gradual return to normal temperatures after Christmas Day and it will stay that way well into January.

I know some of us might want to dismiss this as too far out to be sure about, but remember they were right about the cold taking hold, when some of the models weren't having it, and the cold continuing throughout December despite the wavering from the various models.

It's also worth remembering M.T. in his long range forecast did say he expected milder weather, possibly very mild, to take hold in early January for a week or possibly two at least. This is similar to what the uk met office is now saying in their 16-30 day outlook.

I would love if they were wrong but i don't think they are:(
If they are right let's just hope the cold goes out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Even if they are right Nacho, there is still plenty of winter left for the cold and snow to come back with avengence after that potential mild spell.

It might be no harm having a break before that.

roryc1 · 19-12-2010 8:11pm

Well the ECM 00z are bringing this cold spell to an end with a hurricane on the 27th :rolleyes: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php

Pangea · 19-12-2010 8:12pm

Yes Nacho doesnt look great in that forecast but remember they are saying it will become "less cold", doesnt mean it will be mild.

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 8:16pm

snow ghost wrote: »

Even if they are right Nacho, there is still plenty of winter left for the cold and snow to come back with avengence after that potential mild spell.

It might be no harm having a break before that.

I suppose you're right. As nice as the snow is to look it has to go at some point. Also Businesses, particularly the hotel industry, need some sort of relent to recoup their losses.

M.T. did say he saw potential for cold to return towards Feburary. So all is not lost as you say.

Pangea · 19-12-2010 8:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I suppose you're right. As nice as the snow is to look it has to go at some point. Also Businesses, particularly the hotel industry, need some sort of relent to recoup their losses.

M.T. did say he saw potential for cold to return towards Feburary. So all is not lost as you say.

Sur MT said this morning one of the models was showing cold lasting till new year, howl your horses there nacho.

On a seperate note I just realised that I didnt see any one complaining about the snow on here this week with those special threads

we are hardy folk up here in the North and West :pac:

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 8:24pm

Pangea wrote: »

Yes Nacho doesnt look great in that forecast but remember they are saying it will become "less cold", doesnt mean it will be mild.

well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.

Pangea · 19-12-2010 8:26pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.

Be honest if Met Uk said there would be snowmaggadon for next week you would still be on here playing it down :pac: :P

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 8:32pm

Pangea wrote: »

Sur MT said this morning one of the models was showing cold lasting till new year, howl your horses there nacho.
:

well what it was showing was less cold out to its furthest reaches, which is actually in line with the ukmo outlook, but after that they indicate a return to normal temperatures right up until January 17. well in any case it's best to just enjoy what we currently have and see what happens:)

nacho libre · 19-12-2010 8:33pm

Pangea wrote: »

Be honest if Met Uk said there would be snowmaggadon for next week you would still be on here playing it down :pac: :P

i probably would yeah as in my nature to be a pessimist, but i'm trying to change:D

bryaner · 20-12-2010 12:02am

Just paid €390 for 500l of oil last week, seriously piss off cold weather I need to get spring outa me oil.

Mayo Exile · 20-12-2010 12:09am

nacho libre wrote: »

well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.

An utter rout of the current cold regime by the 4th January!

Pangea · 20-12-2010 11:19am

So Darkman do you agree with Met eireanns major thaw prediction?

mike65 · 20-12-2010 12:26pm

Every chart is now pointing to a big rise in temps from late Christmas Eve into double figures on St Stephens day across the south and west. Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

th3 s1aught3r · 20-12-2010 1:50pm

Anyone know what the longer term outlook is , when we head into January ? Is it just a case of waiting for the next Arctic system to push down over us again for a renewed cold spell , or do the models dare to go that far

nacho libre · 20-12-2010 2:00pm

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Anyone know what the longer term outlook is , when we head into January ? Is it just a case of waiting for the next Arctic system to push down over us again for a renewed cold spell , or do the models dare to go that far

not looking good according to the ukmo. it would mean bastardi was right in the end

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
A pretty landscape?

Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
Finally an end to it?

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
Settled in to unsettled

This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
Next week

Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.

Pangea · 20-12-2010 2:03pm

MEs 5 day forecast shows a lot of showers over me on Christmas eve, hope they are snow, and also Christmas day.

premiercad · 20-12-2010 2:23pm

Now we are really talking FI but another Greenland express on the way in early Jan, seem like a two week less mild then two week cold pattern..?

Pangea · 20-12-2010 3:11pm

Nacho you failed to post the start of the BBC outlook

Summary
An Arctic end to the year

Despite differences in forecast model output, sometimes contradictory, the majority opinion keeps us in Arctic air with further snow and severe frost until next the start of 2011.

The New Year should bring Atlantic weather to our shores helping to raise temperatures, causing a thaw and allowing sunsine that actually feels warmer!

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
A pretty landscape?

Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
Finally an end to it?

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
Settled in to unsettled

This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
Next week

Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.
Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

nacho libre · 20-12-2010 3:31pm

Pangea wrote: »

Nacho you failed to post the start of the BBC outlook

Summary
An Arctic end to the year

Despite differences in forecast model output, sometimes contradictory, the majority opinion keeps us in Arctic air with further snow and severe frost until next the start of 2011.

The New Year should bring Atlantic weather to our shores helping to raise temperatures, causing a thaw and allowing sunsine that actually feels warmer!

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
A pretty landscape?

Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
Finally an end to it?

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
Settled in to unsettled

This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
Next week

Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.
Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

just bear in mind that they are forecasting for the the UK, so while it may hang on there, in Ireland we could be back to average temperatures or above. Though, it does give some grounds for optimism for possible frontal snow- at least for a time between the 24-26. the ecm has consistently shown a swift breakdown which is why Gerry Murphy has a spring in his step:D, while the ukmo shows the cold air putting up a fight.
one of the models is going to have back down come tonight or tomorrow. let's hope it's the ecmwf. also let's hope that like last January, the depth of the cold is being understimated by met eireann and the ecm, and we end up with another 12 hour period of heavy snow- just like we did towards the end of the big freeze last January.

200motels · 20-12-2010 8:24pm

nacho libre wrote: »

just bear in mind that they are forecasting for the the UK, so while it may hang on there, in Ireland we could be back to average temperatures or above. Though, it does give some grounds for optimism for possible frontal snow- at least for a time between the 24-26. the ecm has consistently shown a swift breakdown which is why Gerry Murphy has a spring in his step:D, while the ukmo shows the cold air putting up a fight.
one of the models is going to have back down come tonight or tomorrow. let's hope it's the ecmwf. also let's hope that like last January, the depth of the cold is being understimated by met eireann and the ecm, and we end up with another 12 hour period of heavy snow- just like we did towards the end of the big freeze last January.

looks like the mild weather will win out by Saturday.

desolate sun · 20-12-2010 8:40pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, it's possible we could see another winter like 1947 in your lifetime, it's also possible you'll win the lotto. on the balance of probability, though, it won't happen again in our lifetime.

Well last winter was a once in a lifetime event, with sub freezing temperatures, frozen lakes and lying snow for weeks on end. AND I saw it again this year!! [I know it's not the same degree as 1947 but it was an exceptional winter]

So Nacho, you need to turn that frown upside down :P

I did hear the words snowmageddon on these boards refering to the latest cold, so I wasnt exaggerating.
Also, forgive me if I'm wrong, but is MT Cranium the guy in this article:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/severe-weather-alert-ireland-and-uk.html

M.T. Cranium · 20-12-2010 8:43pm

The models look dodgy to me at 96-120h. Even those with mild breakdowns are not showing a very convincing set of maps. Some of the lesser models have no breakdown at all (the Russian and Australian models, yes there are such, have continued cold). Most dodgy of all to my eye is the GEM, it shows mild air pushing easily north with almost no height rises at 500 mbs and the jet stream still pushing into France.

The whole business hinges on a slow-moving and rather non-energetic low south of Nova Scotia that on some model runs is hanging back for a very long time in that general area, while cold air pushes south of Iceland into the central Atlantic. This is a real recipe for model disaster, all that needs to go wrong for the likes of the ECM and GFS is that the low sends out a weak frontal wave and the cold builds in stronger. Then it would be a flip-flop on the next set of runs reverting back to the cold hanging on and even building back stronger than ever.

What I'm saying is, don't count on this warmup being either strong or sustained. Some milder air could come oozing in on the 26th and then just lose its way without much support.

As everyone is saying from top to bottom of the feeding chain of the weather game, this is a true forecasting nightmare and the signals are mixed to say the least. Past climatology says watch out for the breakdown delay and snow or mixed precip as a possible result. Also, this just doesn't seem like a realistic sequence, coldest 30-day period on record for this recent period at least, going rapidly to a zonal flow? Just doesn't seem realistic, a battleground period seems more realistic.

Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

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