March 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium _______ 7.1 _ 18.8 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.5 Moorepark

NormaL ___________ 6.8 _ 18.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 loc'n by climatology

... looks like the late posting has not caused too many late entries, will message anyone not in by 0800h ...

Table of Forecasts for March 2021


Despite the late posting, no late entries (and 29 forecasters entered) ... the max temps for 17th have been ranked for your interest and ease of scoring.


FORECASTER _______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max 17th loc'n


Pauldry ____________________ 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 105 __17_ 14.0 Phoenix Park

Adam240610 ________________7.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 047 _ 141 ___5_ 16.1 Phoenix Park

Kindred Spirit _______________ 7.8 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 130 __26_ 12.0 Oak Park

Tae laidir ___________________7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.8 _ 083 _ 110 __27_ 11.8 Roches Point

Artane2002 _________________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -3.5 _ 085 _ 115 __18_ 13.7 Phoenix Park

WesternStorm _______________7.3 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 075 _ 104 ___3_ 16.8 Dublin A

Jpmarn ____________________ 7.2 _ 18.6 _ -3.9 _ 085 _ 110 __28_ 11.5 Oak Park

Gonzo _____________________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.9 _ 088 _ 112 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Appledrop __________________ 7.2 _ 16.9 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 105 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner __________________ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.6 _ 092 _ 112 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium ________________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __11_ 14.5 Moore Park

CirrusBusiness _______________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 080 _ 090 __10_ 14.7 Oak Park

Funsterdelux ________________ 7.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___6_ 15.5 Shannon

Bsal _______________________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 115 __22_ 12.5 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 _____________________7.0 _ 16.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___8_ 15.0 Mullingar


____ Con Sensus _____________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 14.1 Oak Park, Phoenix Park*


Dacogawa ___________________ 6.9 _ 17.8 _ -3.1 _ 135 _ 105 ___9_ 14.8 Oak Park


____ NormaL ________________ 6.8 _ 18.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __(19) 13.5 loc'n by climatology


BLIZZARD7 __________________ 6.7 _ 21.7 _ -6.8 _ 090 _ 130 ___1_ 21.0 Casement

SleetAndSnow ________________ 6.7 _ 17.1 _ -3.2 _ 087 _ 102 __15t 14.1 Oak Park

john mac ____________________ 6.7 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 099 ___4_ 16.2 Shannon

Sunflower3 ___________________6.6 _ 18.0 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 095 __15t 14.1 Newport

sryanbruen ___________________6.6 _ 16.0 _ -5.9 _ 090 _ 105 __20t 13.2 Shannon

Mr Stonewall _________________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -2.1 _ 077 _ 123 __23_ 12.4 Shannon

sdanseo _____________________ 6.5 _ 18.0 _ -6.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___2_ 17.3 Oak Park

DOCARCH ____________________6.5 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 087 _ 112 ___7_ 15.1 Casement

200motels ___________________ 6.5 _ 16.1 _ -5.6 _ 088 _ 101 __19_ 13.4 Shannon

Danno ______________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -6.4 _ 078 _ 145 __29__ 9.3 Oak Park

waterways ___________________ 5.9 _ 17.1 _ -5.2 _ 135 _ 103 __20t 13.2 Dublin A

eon1208 _____________________5.8 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 099 _ 107 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Joe Public ____________________5.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.6 _ 070 _ 120 __12_ 14.4 Belmullet

____________________________________________________

* Locations of choice for max 17th:

9 chose Oak Park (Con Sensus 3 pts if correct)

6 chose Phoenix Park (Con Sensus 2 pts if correct)

5 chose Shannon (Con Sensus 2 pts if correct)

2 chose Dublin A, Casement (Con Sensus 1 pt if correct)

1 chose Mullingar, Newport, Roches Point, Belmullet, Moorepark (Con Sensus 1 pt if any correct)

Con Sensus will receive zero if the max is elsewhere.

If we are all incorrect, 2 pts for the warmest of our choices and 1 pt for second warmest of them.

If any of us are correct, 3 pts to that forecaster (or forecasters) and other points based on rank of 2nd, 3rd choices only determined from within our selections.

superbonus of 1 or 2 pts available (the temp portion is worth 7/10 and there will be equal numbers awarded each level one to seven).

2 pt superbonus requires 7 + 3, 1 pt for 6 + 3 or 7 + 2.

After one week of March ...

IMT at 4.4 C, 2.0 below normal for the interval. This coming week is gradually warming but not at a very rapid pace yet.

MAX 11.4, MIN -3.5

PRC almost nil, 2% thanks to five of the eleven stations having other than spider webs in their rain gauges. Malin Head and Belmullet had almost all of what did fall, each at 9% of normal. This coming week looks a bit more average.

SUN at 90% (539/600), several locations above average but Cork very cloudy at only 14% (their three hours being the daily normal now, rather than a weekly average amount). Belmullet was brightest at 133%. This coming week not likely to add much to the account, week three looks brighter.

Early model forecast indications showing quite mild temperatures for 17th, would estimate 15 is current forecast value. ECM has west-northwest flow, GFS has weak southerly flow with high pressure closer. Both have quite warm uppers, looks quite spring-like in week three.

After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.7 C, the second week average was 7.0 which was 0.2 above normal values.

MAX 13.6 and MIN -3.5.

PRC now 108% with the second week rather wet at 223 per cent of normal. Still, with today's small amounts and a dry week ahead, this only guarantees a finish of above 50 per cent, and 50 per cent of normal from today to end would result in an outcome near 75%.

SUN now at 86% with this past week rather dull, 82% of normal sunshine (490/600).

The 17th looms and forecasts indicate one of our warmer forecasts may do well. Our second highest (sdanseo) was 17.3 C. Not as optimistic for top value of 21.0.

The highest hourly temps were 14 at Phoenix Park and Johnstown Castle. That doesn't guarantee one of them will be the location as several others hit 13. Nobody selected Johnstown Castle so if that wins, the points will be based on how our actual choices did (but con sensus would score zero for that, normal would score 2/3 as it's not always among the warmer locations being prone to marine influences).

I'm sure somebody will get the more precise data when it's available. With this recent warmth the IMT was 6.2 after the 16th and I estimate around 6.5 now.

Okay so for the location scoring only the predicted locations will be ranked, so the outcome for locations actually chosen looks like this ...

1. Phoenix Park 14.6

2. Roches Point 13.4, Casement, and Mullingar 13.3

3. Dublin 13.2, Moorepark 13.1, Oak Park 12.8, Shannon 12.4, Newport 11.4 and Belmullet 10.5.

To distribute enough points to keep the bonus scoring in line, we'll give the PP location 3, any of Roches Point, Casement or Mullingar 2, and any above 12 get one point.

Earlier I said that Con Sensus would score zero for location due to JC, but applying the scoring rules normally Con scores the same way as forecasters raw scores, so Con would get two points for location. Normal also gets two since JC is a warmish location most days although seldom warmest like yesterday.

The actual temperature will score from the 14.9 at JC, and the superbonus will score as if PP had two rather than three, other locations cannot qualify (so only one superbonus is possible and PP has to be the location, max temp points will be required, as it turned out, nobody in the top scoring group had PP as their location, so no superbonus issued).

Based on that, the scoring groups for temperature, with location points indicated within groups, are as follows:

7 pts _ Dasa29 (15.0, Mul) +2 = 9
______Dacogawa (14.8, OP) +1 = 8
______DOCARCH (15.1, Cas) +2 = 9
______Cirrus Business (14.7, OP) +1 = 8

6 pts _ M.T. Cranium (14.5, MP) +1 = 7
______funsterdelux (15.5, Sh) +1 = 7
______Joe Public (14.4, Bel) +0 = 6
______Gonzo (14.2, OP) +1 = 7
______Eon1208 (14.2, OP) +1 = 7

5 pts _ SleetAndSnow (14,1, OP) +1 = 6
______Sunflower3 (14.1, New) +0 = 5
________ Con Sensus (14.1) +2 = 7
______Pauldry (14.0, PP) __ +3 = 8
______Adam240610 (16.1, PP) +3 = 8
______Artane2002 (13.7 PP) +3 = 8

4 pts __John mac (16.2, Sh) +1 = 5
__________ NormaL (13.5) +2 = 6
______ 200motels (13.4, Sh) +1 = 5
______ waterways (13.2, Dub) +1 = 5
______ sryanbruen (13.2, Sh) +1 = 5

3 pts __ Western Storm (16.8, Dub) +1 = 4
_______Bsal (12.5, PP) +3 = 6
_______sdanseo (17.3, OP) +1 = 4
_______Mr Stonewall (12.4, Sh) +1 = 4

2 pts __ Appledrop (12.1, PP) +3 = 5
_______MrSkinner (12.1, PP) +3 = 5
_______Kindred Spirit (12.0, OP) +1 = 3
_______Tae laidir (11.8, RP) +2 = 4

1 pt ___ JPmarn (11.5, OP) +1 = 2
_______ Danno (9.3, OP) +1 = 2
_______ BLIZZARD7 (21.0, Cas) +2 = 3

_______________________________________

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.7 with the third week warm, 8.8 C (+1.7 C).

MAX 16.1 and MIN -3.5

PRC down to 76% of normal, with the week quite dry (10% of normal).

SUN edged up to 93% with the third week fairly bright at 108.5% (651/600).

Bonus scoring shown in previous post, 14.9 at Johnstown Castle with Phoenix Park our contest best location.

Yes looks that way. Update tomorrow but after 27 days the IMT on 6.9, each day that averages 10 will add 0.1 to that (more precisely, 9.7 today, 9.9 tomorrow, 10.0 Tuesday and 10.1 Wed would add 0.1 each day). So if it's warmer than that more would be added, don't think it will be much warmer so outcome most likely to be 7.3 C.