July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

Probably my last visit to this contest thread until scoring on August 2, as we are now set to leave the internet friendly home of our coastal relations and hit the road for the desert trip.

IMT through 23 days was back up to 17.1, with another very warm day on 23rd (18.8).

MAX of 27.7 (PP) and MIN (12.2, Mullingar) leave the monthly extremes at 28.1, 4.5.

PRC of 27.3 mm was almost a normal daily amount and allowed the monthly average to rise to the giddy height of 28%.

SUN of only 12.9 hours (39%) sees the month at its lowest point so far, 120%.

August thread is open earlier than usual, would appreciate if readers would keep that thread visible and record any new MAX or MIN for July. See you in August.

So looking at the seven days 23rd to 29th in the ag report, in that interval the IMT was 16.4 which is still 0.8 above normal, the PRC was 174% of normal which increases the month to about 60%, and SUN was 93% which deflates the monthly average to about 119%. Will reboot the provisional scoring table when I get a better handle on how 30th and 31st are playing out the month, looks like my estimates while not abysmal could use some tweaking.

They do weather a little differently here in the desert, after a high of 45 C we now have gusty southeast winds and lightning all quads, trying to decide whether to drop rain or blow sand, or a bit of both, as the temperature plunges to the high 30s.

Settling for a few Pacificos by the pool...

updated hypothetical scoring with yesterday leaving the numbers as shown in the table, assuming little change after today. SUN estimate based on 122% after 30 days. A few will gain 3 points from lower IMT and lose 5 from higher PRC (no other scoring estimate changes). But you can gain or lose any combination from +8 to -8.

FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

Estimated values ___ 16.7_28.1_ 4.5_068_120 __ 25.3_OP


Rameire ___________ 25 _ 08*_ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 88

sryanbruen _________24 _ 20*_ 11 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 85



__ Consensus ______ 22 _ 10*_ 20 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 84


waterways ________ 20 _ 19*_ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 83

Jpmarn ___________ 24 _ 12*_ 19 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 81

JCX_BXC __________22 _ 13*_ 14 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 78

pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 78

M.T. Cranium ______ 21 _ 14*_ 20 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 77

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 77

bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 03*_ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 71

DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 16*_ 14 _ 07 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 69

MrSkinner _________ 20 _ 11*_ 16 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 68

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___25 _ 15*_ 13 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 73-6=67

john mac __________17 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 67

sunflower3 _________20 _ 13*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 65

Rikand ____________22 _ 04*_ 15 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 65

sdanseo ___________22 _ 00*_ 13 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 65

adam240610 _______17 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 64

Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 63

mickger844posts ____17 _ 08*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 62

200motels _________24 _ 02*_ 13 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 62


__ NormaL ________ 13 _ 19*_ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 59


dasa29 ___________ 22 _ 10*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 57

BLIZZARD7 ________ 15 _ 01*_ 12 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 48

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* MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen).

Will adjust these scores tomorrow and confirm by Thursday, updating annual scoring at that time.

Congrats to rameire and sryanbruen for leading the way in what turned out to be quite a good month for our group consensus forecast.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
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NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

* Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).

The IMT actually finished on 16.7 (16.72) which requires a one point adjustment to scores.

PRC may be closer to 68% than my estimate of 65% but I will confirm that from MS.

Assuming these to be the only changes, I am editing the tables slightly.