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The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday
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08-11-2010 5:27pm#1
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Will turn windy again in the east as the mature cyclone pushes south across the country this evening.
Showers will begin to pepper the coast with a few TS's and hail possible along with gusts to 50mph.
Wednesday a storm depression bombs south of Iceland and heads north of Ireland and into Scotland.
Strong gradient to the south of the storm will spread gales and storm force winds for the northwest and north coasts.
Exact track of low subject to uncertainty, exhibits characteristics of extreme storm system with intense gradient, so it is an extremely dangerous storm and must be monitored.
If pushed 100mph south would pose great risk to Irish mainland.
Storm early Thursday
Storm Thursday evening
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As Maq & Su have pointed out, could be windy later on in the week. Latest ECMWF has a tightening gradient developing of the NW coast on Thurday which could bring the risk of gales to northern areas especially:
In no way a definate, but could be one to keep an eye on.0 -
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The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.
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The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.
UKMO has the low developing slower and later thus tracking a decent stretch further south, the UKMO chart is of concern and any further developments would warrant a warning. 0z models will be crucial in determining whether issuing an early weather advisory is necessary.0 -
Posted this is another thread but....
Strongest winds highlighted there, so if the centre of the low was further south it could be quite stormy in places.
As it stands now though, based on the 12Z GFS.....
Gales / Strong Gales possible down along the northeast, east and southeast coastal areas.
Worth watching but these lows tend to drift further to the north by the time they come around!0 -
mickger844posts wrote: »Surprised your saying Wednesday Su, the models are pointing more to Thursday/Friday. Why Wednesday evening/night??
I was looking at the 00Z FAX charts and the tightest gradients were ahead of the system. I must admit I haven't looked at later runs.
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That's a pretty low system ... 950mbar they won't get much lower then that are they ?? :eek:
Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. :P (On this model anyway)
Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind0 -
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Weathercheck wrote: »is the 12z out yet?
Can't see it myself and this thing is on the upgrade.
12z will ramp it up SIG compared to the 0z i would of guessed.
no it isn't. i was basing it on this chart posted earlier:
sorry for the confusion.0 -
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ECM is very similar to the GFS
No need for alarm as the Low is just far enough north to leave the severe winds just to the north but still impacting the northwest and north coast.
Although the low would trek eastwards from there for a closer impact.
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isle of man wrote: »after seeing the mess this moring i think the winds in places were well over 80mph.
a 8mtx4mt shed with rsj in it . not bolted to the ground was flung 8ft up and over a hedge!!!!.
and 66mm of rain in 24 hours!!!!!!!!
See, I told ya the Isle of Man would get some strong gusts!
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maquiladora wrote: »See, I told ya the Isle of Man would get some strong gusts!
yes you did, and thank you:D0 -
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Just a quick question didn't want to clog MTs thread. He says late this evening/tonight for the eastern county rain, I've to que for black ops at around midnight tonight (:D) would it be here by then would you think or will it be into the morning?
EDIT: 700th post! Only took me 4 years lol
started raining here already,bring an umbrella,im sure it be worth it
edit:congrats on 700th post0 -
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Tonight's ECM, if anything, has increased the forecast windspeeds for Thursday:
Full gales now in coastal areas ( strong gales in the NW and north) with possible gale gusts overland during heavy showers especially. Let's hope it will deepen even further in later runs.
Edit, just to add for those who may not be 'regulars' on boards.ie weather, please take charts this far out with a colossal pinch of salt. We are only speaking of possiblities here at the moment. We will know what the story is, for better or for worse, closer the time.
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Tonight's ECM, if anything, has increased the forecast windspeeds for Thursday:
Full gales now in coastal areas ( strong gales in the NW and north) with possible gale gusts overland during heavy showers especially. Let's hope it will deepen even further in later runs.
Edit, just to add for those who may not be 'regulars' on boards.ie weather, please take charts this far out with a colossal pinch of salt. We are only speaking of possiblities here at the moment. We will know what the story is, for better or for worse, closer the time.
Yes DE the flabby part of the Low will hit us instead of the lines
Oh dont you love my weather knowledge.
Anyways in all seriousness I think this low is going North and its effects on us will be "normal" wind and rain
On another subject I swallowed some high gloss paint today and got electricuted yesterday and I still live. Some immune system Sligo people have.:)0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Tonight's ECM, if anything, has increased the forecast windspeeds for Thursday
Yep, it certainly has DE.
Here is a closer look.
Not often you see ECM ramping up a storm more than the GFS but that is the case herel Centre of the low is further south and those isobars look nicely stacked.
Definite strong gales on the coasts and gales inland in parts there methinks.0 -
CMC 12Z is a cracker.
Gales/strong gales on the coasts and inland in the NW at T78 and then at T84...
Gales and even strong gales inland in the east/southeast and storm force winds on the east coast.
Have to remember though...its only a model. 0 -
The 18Z HiRLAM has it reaching a minimum pressure of 948hPa at midnight Wednesday, which is the lowest of the models.
The ECM has a bit of a wobble in the track of the centre between 12Z and midnight Wednesday, which brings it on a track slightly more towards us as it deepens further, but it looks like Wednesday afternoon gales will start occuring along Atlantic coasts, moving to the Irish Sea after midnight, followed by some stronger winds for Thursday, increasing through the day, becoming strong gale force to storm force along Atlantic coasts, strongest in the northwest, where the trailing occlusion could be near enough to enhance gustiness. Overall, all areas will get winds as strong, and in some cases, stronger, than yesterday, and for a longer duration.
A lot of variables yet that could change things. The low spawns from a deep cutoff low currently over the US east coast, and gets caught up in an as yet unformed jet that forms Tuesday night as a blast of low thicknesses shoots down from Baffin Bay. This jet will be around 50kts weaker than the one over the weekend, but its peak strength coincides with the surface low located in its left exit region, which causes that wobble and further strengthening during Wednesday. A slight change in the exact dynamics of the formation of this jet could cause enough of a change to the surface deepening to affect its rate of occlusion and hence its track. As occlusion occcurs, the low will tend to track to the left, away from us. But the models seem pretty consistent with this system, and there's no reason not to have full confidence in them, especially after they handled Becky so well.
And for any journalists reading - THIS WILL NOT BE A HURRICANE!!!0 -
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18z for what it's worth pushed this abit further south as compared to its 12z.
Pushes a tight gradient south through southern Scotland, Northern Ireland.
parths of Northwestern England/ Wales, look set to be battered as indeed Northwestern Ireland in particular.
Central pressure progged at ~950mbar
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This system is entering hi res territory on the 18z runs. Here is what the 18z HIRLAM is showing (subject to much change in later runs) for 0000utc Thursday:
Cloud forecast:
Front crossing Ireland with a classic swirling low to the northwest.
Wind forecast:
Tighening gradient south of the Atlanitc depression with gale to strong gales surging forth!0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »but in reality, as alluded to earlier, it's more likely to track further north than what the models are currently showing. in any case it's a timely reminder just how difficult it is to get a proper storm to effect most of the country these days. so, as was mentioned earlier, anyone new to the forum, who lives inland, don't get your hopes that you'll see windier weather than last night you likely won't. i could be wrong, though:)
Oh I know. Ive seen enough of these curve away to the north as we get closer to crunch time!
But the trend at the moment has been a southward drift on the models, and the the models performed very well on the rather unusual track of Becky at an even earlier stage than this storm. 0 -
maquiladora wrote: »and the the models performed very well on the rather unusual track of Becky at an even earlier stage than this storm.
Very true Maq, but that unfortunely does not necessarily mean that they will perform as good this time, but I am hoping (as we all are I guess) that they are onto something! 0 -
maquiladora wrote: »Oh I know. Ive seen enough of these curve away to the north as we get closer to crunch time! But the trend at the moment has been a southward drift on the models, and the the models performed very well on the rather unusual track of Becky at an even earlier stage than this storm.
well they have that's true and hopefully they won't do about turn. i tend to be pessimistic in my outlook anyway, as i don't like to get my hopes up only to be left disappointed. my attitude is probably quite annoying if you're an optimist
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18Z GFS ensembles for Dublin :
Even though the 18Z was an upgrade the mean had lower pressure at the peak of the storm and only 2 or 3 ensemble members had higher pressure than the operational run.
Wouldnt be surprised if it tracked a bit further south on the 0Z going by that!
So far so good lads.0 -
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