Saturday Mar 16th: Snowfall, heavy rain, localised flood risk

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2019 9:59pm #1

So...

Heavy rain moving up over the country on Friday night is likely to turn to snow on it's northern and northwestern flank for Saturday as it comes up against much colder air with more favorable variables for snow coming down to low levels.

There is still some uncertainty as to the precise track.

If it's track shifts further southeast more of the country, including South Leinster and Munster are at risk of snow. If the track stays northwest then Ulster and Connaught have high risk of heavy snowfall.

Right now it looks as though Ulster and Connaught are most at risk of heavy and disruptive snowfall.

However, the forecast track of shortwave is still fluid and likely to shift either way over the coming days.

Areas: North Connaught, Ulster, North Leinster (inc Wicklow mtns)

Risk: Heavy snowfall, the apocalypse, Brexit style chaos

Areas: South Leinster, Munster

Risk: Heavy rainfall, localised flooding

fax72s.gif?1

Definite disruption risks for some so keep up to date but some entertainment to be had too. :cool:

kermit-frog-snow-ball-throw-39358.jpeg?auto=compress&cs=tinysrgb&h=650&w=650

kermit-frog-snow-ball-throw-39358.jpeg?auto=compress&cs=tinysrgb&h=650&w=650

highdef · 13-03-2019 10:18pm

I'm driving from North Kildare to south Cavan on Saturday afternoon. It could prove to be a rather interesting drive!

DOCARCH · 13-03-2019 10:18pm

You can't beat a KDF thread!

pad199207 · 13-03-2019 10:21pm

Bloody hell another nightmare

FrancieBrady · 13-03-2019 10:22pm

Is my Super Saturday rugby at risk? :eek:

Meteorite58 · 13-03-2019 10:23pm

EDIT: Good on ye Kermit, posted this a moment ago in the Chats thread , more fitting in here. Looks like a knife edge marginal situation again. Good case study for learning!

ECM 12Z showing a LP traversing the country in the early hours. The Front looks to run into cold air and produce wintry precipitation. The current run showing snow a possibility in Northern counties and looking very wet in several counties. Possible rainfall warnings . Windy on coasts in the Southern half of the country and breezy overland but atm below warning level, winds easing from the SW from early morning. Cold day and showery and maybe merging into longer spells of rain , hail and maybe thunder possible with the passage of troughs.

km79 · 13-03-2019 10:24pm

Depressing is what it is

highdef · 13-03-2019 10:26pm

Have been keeping an eye on this for a few days now. Could be quite interesting alright. Still plenty of room for both upgrades and downgrades but in any case, this is looking like it'll probably be our last possible snow event of the season as it looks to be turning milder as we move towards the latter part of March.

highdef · 13-03-2019 10:26pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is my Super Saturday rugby at risk? :eek:

Where is the rugby being played?

RobbingBandit · 13-03-2019 10:26pm

Breadmagedon it is so, see you all on the battlefield.

sdanseo · 13-03-2019 10:32pm

highdef wrote: »

Where is the rugby being played?

Nearest is Cardiff.

There is zero chance of any of the six nations games being cancelled barring a major outbreak of war or some unmitigated disaster. It would be like cancelling Christmas in Wales, they're on for a Grand Slam.

Tacklebox · 13-03-2019 10:33pm

Ohhh nooooo

I just accepted today that we'll see no more snow until next winter, now we're back on the rollercoaster again...

Fantastic Island trip again

tikkamark · 13-03-2019 10:33pm

In Kermit we trust

FrancieBrady · 13-03-2019 10:38pm

highdef wrote: »

Where is the rugby being played?

Rome - Cardiff - Twickenham

Squatter · 13-03-2019 11:00pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is my Super Saturday rugby at risk? :eek:

If it is then cheer up Francie because the GAA intellectuals have scheduled no less than four Division 1 National Hurling League games for Saturday afternoon. :rolleyes: Better hurry and reserve your tickets though, because they'll probably all be sell-outs!

Kutebride · 13-03-2019 11:09pm

Oh no a Kermit thread

I observed this on Met UK today.
I would be excited if staying at home but have a trip planned East to West on Saturday. Eeek

pistolpetes11 · 13-03-2019 11:18pm

I had thought we were all done with the cold weather , perhaps one last hurrah

pauldry · 13-03-2019 11:22pm

Im a disbeliever on this occasion Kermit.

I think 5 to 8c and just cold rain.

Thanks for highlighting an interesting possibility though.

sparrowcar · 13-03-2019 11:46pm

pauldry wrote: »

Im a disbeliever on this occasion Kermit.

I think 5 to 8c and just cold rain.

Thanks for highlighting an interesting possibility though.

There's no place for this kind of talk here...

Larbre34 · 14-03-2019 1:32am

Upland event only, stay off the mountain passes, light the fire, rugby, beers, favourite nosh, let it rain coldly.

pc7 · 14-03-2019 7:31am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is my Super Saturday rugby at risk? :eek:

+1 flying to Cardiff Saturday morning

Oneiric 3 · 14-03-2019 8:51am

Unless we get something akin to last Friday night, I'm not interested. Snow at this time of year is just Meteorological diarrhea.

Sammy2012 · 14-03-2019 9:22am

Any chance the wexford vs Galway hurling game will be cancelled? Its on in salthill at 1.30 on sat! We are planning on travelling over to it.

Larbre34 · 14-03-2019 10:23am

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Any chance the wexford vs Galway hurling game will be cancelled? Its on in salthill at 1.30 on sat! We are planning on travelling over to it.

None.

Expect a nice stiff icy wind and a few sharp showers though, could be some hail, but you won't see any kind of wintry disruption in Salthill.

sideswipe · 14-03-2019 11:09am

Love cold and snow but that ship has sailed.......spring weather please. Anything we get from this will likely be a cold, slushy mess. The snow we got around Paddy's day last year is a case in point.

Danno · 14-03-2019 11:28am

sideswipe wrote: »

Love cold and snow but that ship has sailed.......spring weather please. Anything we get from this will likely be a cold, slushy mess. The snow we got around Paddy's day last year is a case in point.

The snow of March 18th 2018 was anything but a mess.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2019 12:06pm

Still Ulster, North Connaught for the snow on Saturday this morning.

Still time for some adjustments either way.

Heavy pulses of rain elsewhere (as of this morning's model guidance)

pad199207 · 14-03-2019 1:01pm

Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Donegal

A spell of snow on Friday night and early Saturday morning will lead to poor driving conditions and accumulations of up to 3 cm. On high ground accumulations are likely to be greater.

Valid: Saturday 16 March 2019 00:01 to Saturday 16 March 2019 12:00

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2019 1:18pm

sideswipe wrote: »

Love cold and snow but that ship has sailed.......spring weather please. Anything we get from this will likely be a cold, slushy mess. The snow we got around Paddy's day last year is a case in point.

Agreed. Patricks day last year was one of the coldest days I can remember (incredible windchill) but still the snow melted pretty quickly where I was (in Waterford that weekend).

Gonzo · 14-03-2019 2:40pm

I don't think this weekend will be anywhere nearly as successful as Paddy's weekend last year in terms of snow, last year that was an easterly and brought properly low temperatures nationwide.

Saturday's snow risk looks very low away from high ground:

Precipitation mostly of rain throughout the country during daylight hours:

57-574UK.GIF?14-6

Chance of wintry showers early Saturday night, GFS tend's to overcook these snowrisks.

66-574UK.GIF?14-6

Villain · 14-03-2019 2:40pm

A bank holiday Monday hike up Lug looks like it may be nice

Mortelaro · 14-03-2019 2:43pm

Villain wrote: »

A bank holiday Monday hike up Lug looks like it may be nice

Good bit of snow on lug still today actually

uck51js9zml2yt · 14-03-2019 2:45pm

I've reported Kermit for using vile and disgusting language in telling us about snow.

A mod might be along soon.

sideswipe · 14-03-2019 3:12pm

Danno wrote: »

The snow of March 18th 2018 was anything but a mess.

Shows how starved we are for proper snow if you consider that anything but a mess, it was melting as soon as it stopped snowing, looked nice during the snow fall but we're still talking a 24hr type event. There's too much power in the sun and daylight duration at this time of year. Even the picture you posted has foot prints that show it's struggling to stick without sustained snow fall.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get good snow fall at this time of year, historically some of the biggest falls have happened in Spring, I just feel they are outliers and the system for the weekend looks like a marginal mess as is often the case.

14-03-2019 3:25pm

6Z HIRLAM's take on it. Snow/rain boundary moves north during Sat morning.

redsteveireland · 14-03-2019 5:09pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Donegal

A spell of snow on Friday night and early Saturday morning will lead to poor driving conditions and accumulations of up to 3 cm. On high ground accumulations are likely to be greater.

Valid: Saturday 16 March 2019 00:01 to Saturday 16 March 2019 12:00

The Warning on the main met eireann site is a bit misleading, a warning triangle that says National Warning, but when you open it, it only covers Donegal?

Mount Vesuvius · 14-03-2019 5:13pm

sideswipe wrote: »

Shows how starved we are for proper snow if you consider that anything but a mess, it was melting as soon as it stopped snowing, looked nice during the snow fall but we're still talking a 24hr type event. There's too much power in the sun and daylight duration at this time of year. Even the picture you posted has foot prints that show it's struggling to stick without sustained snow fall.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get good snow fall at this time of year, historically some of the biggest falls have happened in Spring, I just feel they are outliers and the system for the weekend looks like a marginal mess as is often the case.

Look what I got on 18th March 2018

Level patio ground and top of garden shed.
Nothing sloppy at my location. 110asl

Mount Vesuvius · 14-03-2019 6:27pm

Latest Fax for Midday Saturday

Hirlam shows Northern wintriness, heading to give Scotland a dumping of snow.

sideswipe · 14-03-2019 6:30pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Look what I got on 18th March 2018

Level patio ground and top of garden shed.
Nothing sloppy at my location. 110asl

I got similar, unfortunately it was too late in the year to last very long, which is my point about late season snow events.

Monkeynut · 14-03-2019 8:39pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Nearest is Cardiff.

There is zero chance of any of the six nations games being cancelled barring a major outbreak of war or some unmitigated disaster. It would be like cancelling Christmas in Wales, they're on for a Grand Slam.

The Millennium stadium(or it has a new name) has a retractable roof. Most definitely the game will be on!

Meteorite58 · 14-03-2019 9:16pm

Big rainfall accumulations Fri evening into Sat. Warnings look likely.

Meteorite58 · 14-03-2019 9:21pm

Have added a yellow warning level to the thread title to reflect the Snow - Ice warning for Donegal.

Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Donegal
A spell of snow on Friday night and early Saturday morning will lead to poor driving conditions and accumulations of up to 3 cm. On high ground accumulations are likely to be greater.

Valid: Saturday 16 March 2019 00:01 to Saturday 16 March 2019 12:00

Issued: Thursday 14 March 2019 11:00

Updated: Thursday 14 March 2019 11:00

Meteorite58 · 14-03-2019 9:36pm

Models going for Northern counties getting an accumulation of Snow in the early hours of Saturday and wintry showers to follow during the day across the country , could get thundery on Atlantic coasts towards evening and overnight Sat into Sun.

Meteorite58 · 14-03-2019 9:55pm

The LP passing over the country early Sat moving into a colder airmas and colder air moving in over Ireland as the day goes on.

Hard to see much snow on lower ground and hills lasting for very long on Sat morning up in Northern counties with temperatures being shown by the ECM, to get progressively cooler throughout the day .

Meteorite58 · 14-03-2019 10:10pm

EURO 4 rainfall accumulation.

That's a lot of rainfall on top of the 34 mm approx for this week so far here near Tralee.

Snow Garden · 14-03-2019 10:31pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Nearest is Cardiff.

There is zero chance of any of the six nations games being cancelled barring a major outbreak of war or some unmitigated disaster. It would be like cancelling Christmas in Wales, they're on for a Grand Slam.

Millennium stadium has a retractable roof.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2019 10:34pm

On Saturday i'll be reporting live from Donegal...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNuH0XdhRpw

SleetAndSnow · 14-03-2019 10:37pm

Cork farms are literally going to be mini lakes, they are already so water logged when I drove down to my summer home last week before Gareth and all the rain before that, and now even more heavier rain.

Going to be a lot of floods I think since everything is already very waterlogged and the rivers are near their peak

downwiththatsor · 14-03-2019 10:38pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Millennium stadium has a retractable roof.

Thought there was a Mexican standoff as to whether it would be closed or not? Wales didn't follow protocol and ask Ireland if they were ok with having it closed before they asked six nations hq. Not sure if the decision has been made yet one way or the other?
Looks cold either way this weekend and looking forward to things settling down next week as the rain looks very heavy.

Snow Garden · 14-03-2019 10:57pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Thought there was a Mexican standoff as to whether it would be closed or not? Wales didn't follow protocol and ask Ireland if they were ok with having it closed before they asked six nations hq. Not sure if the decision has been made yet one way or the other?
Looks cold either way this weekend and looking forward to things settling down next week as the rain looks very heavy.

Yeah but if the weather is promised lousy, they will close it.

Snow Garden · 14-03-2019 11:02pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Cork farms are literally going to be mini lakes, they are already so water logged when I drove down to my summer home last week before Gareth and all the rain before that, and now even more heavier rain.

Going to be a lot of floods I think since everything is already very waterlogged and the rivers are near their peak

Rivers are far from peak.

This is River Corrib directly fed from lake.

Well below median flood.

https://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/

Saturday Mar 16th: Snowfall, heavy rain, localised flood risk

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