STORM FRANK, Tuesday 29th-Wednesday 30th. Heavy Rain, Flooding and strong winds.

JCX BXC · 27-12-2015 10:57pm #1

Advance warning of heavy rain (Up to 300mm in localised parts of Cork and Kerry) and Strong winds (Up to 130/140km/h gusts) for Tuesday 29th and Wednesday 30th December. Met Éireann have cited this storm may be called Frank. Flooding likely in the already saturated North-west/West/South-west.

Met Eireann weather warning issued:
"STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry
Southerly winds associated with Storm Frank will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km with gusts of 100 to 120 km/hour, strongest in coastal areas on Tuesday afternoon, evening and early night.
Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Tuesday 29 December 2015 23:59

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Wicklow, Galway, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Rainfall totals of 40 to 70 mm over 24 hours between Tuesday midday and Wednesday midday.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 18:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 12:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds will reach speeds of 45 to 65 km/hour with gusts of 90 to 109 km/hr, strongest on the south coast through the second half of Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 06:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Sligo, Roscommon, Mayo, Leitrim, Clare, Limerick, Tipperary and all Leinster except Wicklow.
Rainfall totals of 25 to 40 mm over 24 hours between Tuesday midday and Wednesday midday.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 18:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 12:00"

maquiladora · 27-12-2015 11:01pm

Tactical · 27-12-2015 11:20pm

Interesting few days of model watching ahead.
Almost as exciting as Lamp Post watching

Dazzo · 27-12-2015 11:25pm

Tactical wrote: »

Interesting few days of model watching ahead.
Almost as exciting as Lamp Post watching

Is there a possibility of some lamp post watching new years eve?

Sammy2012 · 27-12-2015 11:27pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Does this map mean they are giving severe gusts for wexford and wicklow areas??

maquiladora · 27-12-2015 11:33pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Does this map mean they are giving severe gusts for wexford and wicklow areas??

It's just one model, but yeah it's showing some strong gusts over the southeast at times during Wednesday. Not as severe as it looked like it would be a few days ago though.

Sammy2012 · 27-12-2015 11:36pm

maquiladora wrote: »

It's just one model, but yeah it's showing some strong gusts over the southeast at times during Wednesday. Not as severe as it looked like it would be a few days ago though.

Thanks for that.. hopefully it won't be as bad as that. Are the other models in agreement with this? Or is this model just going with worse case scenario?

Eta: sorry for all the questions..I follow the threads here all the time and I hate the wind. It did alot of damage in Feb 14 around here and would hate for a repeat of that again.

maquiladora · 27-12-2015 11:42pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Thanks for that.. hopefully it won't be as bad as that. Are the other models in agreement with this? Or is this model just going with worse case scenario?

Eta: sorry for all the questions..I follow the threads here all the time and I hate the wind. It did alot of damage in Feb 14 around here and would hate for a repeat of that again.

This other model also shows gusts possibly 110-120 kmh over the southeast on Wednesday. Might not turn out as strong as that though. I definitely wouldn't expect anything as severe as Feb 2014 at this stage.

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Sammy2012 · 27-12-2015 11:45pm

maquiladora wrote: »

This other model also shows gusts possibly 110-120 kmh over the southeast on Wednesday. Might not turn out as strong as that though. I definitely wouldn't expect anything as severe as Feb 2014

Thanks maq...will continue to keep an eye on details tomorrow. Hopefully won't be too bad. Thanks for your help.

Padster90s · 27-12-2015 11:53pm

If that wind hits Dublin this thread will be mental!

goodies · 27-12-2015 11:55pm

Padster90s wrote: »

If that wind hits Dublin this thread will be mental!

Not just us poor Kerry gang constantly hammered!

Padster90s · 27-12-2015 11:57pm

goodies wrote: »

Not just us poor Kerry gang constantly hammered!

Its nice to see mother nature spread the love with this one!

teddybones · 28-12-2015 12:05am

Highest this year from asford weather station was 66mph last month. If this scenario comes off it would possibly be 75mph so really a very significant event for east coast imo. Lots of power cuts and slates off and trees down with that storm in November so would be definitely be very cautious of this coming event if it does play out as above.

maquiladora · 28-12-2015 12:11am

Another model, just showing rainfall from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday. It doesn't include the rain before or after that. Cork and Kerry off the scale with 70+ mm in 24 hours, which would meet Met Eireann's criteria for a red warning for rainfall.

Meteorite58 · 28-12-2015 12:49am

Been comparing the earlier runs to the 18Z and it would apprear that the stronger winds off the W coast are that bit stronger and nearer the coastline on the later run. Weds looking very windy in the S, SE and E and with all that rainfall trying to leave the rivers.....

Going to be a monsterous sea on tues and weds, just coming out ot the high tides ,coastal erosion and flooding again a factor.
There is going to be some plethora of warnings tues and weds between wind and rain.

Storm 10 · 28-12-2015 1:05am

Ok guys looking at what is being posted are we looking at a Red warning at some stage

John mac · 28-12-2015 1:14am

300 MM of rain (maybe a bit of a daily mail moment? :eek:;))

Rikand · 28-12-2015 1:19am

John mac wrote: »

300 MM of rain (may be a bit of a daily mail moment? :eek:;))

In certain places.

300mm fell in some locations in the UK a couple of weeks ago in under 36 hours

Meteorite58 · 28-12-2015 1:21am

Quote Storm 10 Ok guys looking at what is being posted are we looking at a Red warning at some stage

maquiladora wrote: »

Another model, just showing rainfall from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday. It doesn't include the rain before or after that. Cork and Kerry off the scale with 70+ mm in 24 hours, which would meet Met Eireann's criteria for a red warning for rainfall.

Weather Element Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

1. Wind Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h
2. Rain 70mm or greater in 24 hrs
50mm or greater in 12 hrs
40mm or greater in 6 hrs

Looking close enough more especially for rainfall, maybe some W/NW counties for wind.

maquiladora · 28-12-2015 1:36am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Ok guys looking at what is being posted are we looking at a Red warning at some stage

I think they might be reluctant to issue a Red wind warning for Tuesday even though some models do show 130km gusts brushing by the west coast. It would only be brief and limited to the exposed coastline. It wouldnt really be representive of speeds inland at all.

A red warning for rainfall is more likely but it will depend on how it looks on their models closer to the time.

Meteorite58 · 28-12-2015 1:54am

maquiladora · 28-12-2015 1:58am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Wednesday is a bit different on the ECM. Could be quite strong in the west rather than the east.

Meteorite58 · 28-12-2015 2:07am

Would ECM be the favoured run? I notice it is from the 12Z as opposed to the GFS 18Z.

maquiladora · 28-12-2015 3:04am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Would ECM be the favoured run? I notice it is from the 12Z as opposed to the GFS 18Z.

Would definitely favour the ECM with a low like this at 72 hours. But it's a more unpredictable one than the big low on Tuesday so we'll have to see if the ECM models it consistently before knowing for sure.

Wx · 28-12-2015 3:11am

maquiladora wrote: »

Would definitely favour the ECM with a low like this at 72 hours. But it's a more unpredictable one than the big low on Tuesday so we'll have to see if the ECM models it consistently before knowing for sure.

Do ECM do intermediate 0600Z and 1800Z runs?
Don't think so!
Anyone confirm?

maquiladora · 28-12-2015 3:37am

Wx wrote: »

Do ECM do intermediate 0600Z and 1800Z runs?
Don't think so!
Anyone confirm?

Nope.

Graces7 · 28-12-2015 5:45am

maquiladora wrote: »

I think they might be reluctant to issue a Red wind warning for Tuesday even though some models do show 130km gusts brushing by the west coast. It would only be brief and limited to the exposed coastline. It wouldnt really be representive of speeds inland at all.

A red warning for rainfall is more likely but it will depend on how it looks on their models closer to the time.

at least the schools are still out so that safety measure is intact.

RobertKK · 28-12-2015 9:19am

Met Eireann on radio 1 forecast said the southern half of the country to get 100mm to 120mm of rain between now and new year.

legomaniac · 28-12-2015 9:53am

MT's forecast and Met Eireann's are both going for major downgrades in the severity of the conditions for this week. Nothing more than a spell of typical winter gales and heavy rains. I expect nothing more than a yellow alert to be issued. As I posted on here a few days ago, I am going to tackle the garage roof tomorrow with help from two neighbours.

Graces7 · 28-12-2015 10:23am

Just seen this on breaking news http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/shannon-areas-on-flood-watch-as-winter-rain-reaches-unprecedented-levels-713156.html.. I am keeping an eye on kerrycoco twitter aa roadwatch twitter etc and some flood reports in from Cork already. Heavy unrelenting rain up here . South Kerry 400 asl

eastmayo · 28-12-2015 11:46am

Is it likely now that this storm will not be named as the winds don't look 2 bad.

STORM FRANK, Tuesday 29th-Wednesday 30th. Heavy Rain, Flooding and strong winds.

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