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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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SouthWesterly wrote: »Sorry folks. I buried him in my field. I was sick of all the bad news reports:)
Thunderstorms are never bad reports! :pac:
Uppers become increasingly cold, Low level shear available but very little Deep layer shear, Mucape levels meagre and mostly over water ( from the relatively high SST's and cold uppers ) but maybe the odd brief sporadic pulse storm might approach the coast ? Heavy convective rain and hail possible but dont know if there is enough energy and instability to kick start a storm??
What ye reckon.
Maybe over high ground in the SW in a bit from the coast with the combination of frontal forcing and orographic lift or along S coasts ?
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Thurs has a passage of a trough with very cold uppers spreading in over the country and later down the W / SW.
Like last week low deep layer shear, some surface shear but limited, little in the way of diurnal heating, looks to be a fairly cold day but CAPE levels could produce some storms , could be slow moving with locally heavy downpours and uppers cold enough to produce hail . Lapse rates decent.
Later Thurs night will be watching the W/ SW to see if storms develop over the sea and maybe some straying on to land ? Very cold uppers over relatively warm SST's. Will see.
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Met Eireann mentioning risk of thunder and hail , more so in Northern counties tomorrow.
Cold uppers and mid levels and trough moving in over Ulster tomorrow, convection with some big showers at least. Will see if anything sparks up.
Good brisk NW / Wind tomorrow giving a fair Windchill.
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A few sferics showing up today and a good few hail showers reported. Got caught in one very heavy shower in Tralee, but grand sunny day in general .
It's gas, no strikes showing up after all in Northern counties.
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An hour long but worth a watch. Documents the 'Derecho' event that hit parts of the upper Midwest last August. Serious stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZzsGZPXOGMNew Moon
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Entering a period of unstable air mass with steep lapse rates under cold uppers with relatively mild SST's. A fair bit of convection about with the increased chance of hail showers and some risk of lightning but looks low, maybe an area with a bit of orographic lift might help produce a few sparks over land. The Atlantic coastal counties might feature most and more so over the sea, could be some great cloudscapes out there.
Tons of shear available overnight when the front crosses the country, could be some very squally conditions, wouldn't be surprised if got reports of very localized intense winds or even some tornadic activity.
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![[Deleted User]](/applications/dashboard/design/images/defaulticon.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZzsGZPXOGM
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