March 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for March, 2019


FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island
_____________________________________________________________

*Locations for warmest on 17th ...

Oak Park, Valentia ____4
Shannon ___________ 3
Gurteen, Phoenix Park,
Casement, Mountdillon,
Mullingar, Sherkin ____ 2
Belmullet ___________ 1

__________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median, average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

After the first week ...

IMT on 6.1 C, which is 0.2 below average for the period.

MAX and MIN have not really been factors yet, will hunt them down if necessary.

PRC so far 320% of normal, which already guarantees a normal amount if 30% of normal falls from now to end of month.

SUN has opened up with 95% (569/600) of normal.

After three weeks ...

IMT has climbed to 7.1, the past week averaged 8.7 C which is 1.6 above the normal value. This will likely fall back slightly through Monday then resume a bit of a climb, but will likely end up either 7.2 or 7.3 if forecasts are right.

MAX so far has been 17.7, it could be challenged next week, and MIN of -1.6 will come under pressure for the next three days, our highest forecast was -2.4.

PRC is now at 241% of normal, the past week was not quite as wet as the first two, with an average of 155% that included two stations below average. If no further rain falls in the month (today's small amounts included in this calculation) the amount already fallen will guarantee an outcome of 164% of normal. Model forecasts show only small amounts to come except for the 31st when timing might be an issue, so the outcome seems likely to be 170 to 180 per cent. The only thing left to settle is the full or partial aspect of the scoring boost (Dacogawa at 160% as explained earlier can be close enough to the final outcome to reduce all the scoring boosts).

SUN average has slumped down to 88% with this past week only 68% of normal (407/600). This will probably drift back towards a near normal finish, which will require about 125% of normal from today to the end of the month.

====================================================================

With the bonus question already scored, we can have a look at these early provisional scoring estimates which are based on the values discussed above, but full scoring boosts for PRC as I think it's less than 50-50 that further rainfall will be low enough to qualify Dacogawa for the beat down outcome.

Provisional scoring for March 2019

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus (17th warmest)

Estimated values ______ 7.3_17.7_-2.5_175_100 __ 11.8 PP ___ TOTAL SCORE



Tae laidir ____________ 25 _ 17 _ 17 _ 14*_ 09 ___ 4 ______ 86

Dasa29 ______________23 _ 18 _ 15 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 2 ______ 78

Kindred Spirit _________20 _ 12 _ 13 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 7 ______ 74

Bsal ________________ 23 _ 14 _ 15 _ 03*_ 09 ___10 ______ 74

Rameire ___ (-2) ______22 _ 08 _ 19 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 5 __69-2=67


___ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 17 _ 05 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 67


Dacogawa ___________ 24 _ 13 _ 01 _ 15*_ 06 ___ 7 ______ 66

mickger844posts ______12 _ 10 _ 15 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 8 ______ 65

Sunflower3 __________ 22 _ 13 _ 05 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 6 ______ 62

JCXBXC _____________ 22 _ 17 _ 05 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 5 ______ 61

waterways ___________23 _ 02 _ 10 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 60

DOCARCH ___________ 24 _ 19 _ 00 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 2 ______ 59

John mac ____________19 _ 17 _ 08 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 1 ______ 58


Normal ______________20 _ 18 _ 00 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 8 ______ 58


200motels ___________13 _ 12 _ 11 _ 06*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 57

Adam240610 _________17 _ 09 _ 12 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 2 ______ 54

Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 11 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 5 ______ 53

Jpmarn _____________ 21 _ 12 _ 00 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 5 ______ 53

Rikand ______________23 _ 17 _ 00 _ 01*_ 06 ___ 5 ______ 52

Bazlers ______________25 _ 09 _ 00 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 1 ______ 52

M.T. Cranium _________24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 1 ______ 50

sryanbruen __________ 15 _ 05 _ 04 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 3 ______ 49

Artane2002 __________ 15 _ 11 _ 00 _ 08*_ 10 ___ 2 ______ 46

MrSkinner ___________ 17 _ 04 _ 04 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 8 ______ 45

Joe Public ____________05 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 7 ______ 45

BLIZZARD7 __________ 10 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 3 ______ 30

---

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island

---

For the provisional scoring, about half the field can benefit from a higher MAX at the expense of the other half. All but Rameire can improve their MIN scores if the MIN drops below -2.5 and about a third can get a score, currently at zero (some need quite a drop for that). All but Dacogawa would lose about half their PRC score if that outcome is 167% or lower (to its lowest possible value of 164%).

The provisional scoring will be updated at any point where I think the estimated values are in need of revision. Then it will be revised to final scoring on or about 2nd April.

Delighted that my provisional scoring guess was on the mark so no changes (yet) foreseen in the scoring posted. The lowest reading I noticed earlier today was zero, might be a rounded off minus something but not likely to move this new MIN of -2.5 -- still time for that to happen if skies clear up more on some future occasion (weekend was looking potentially rather cold).

As to min progression kicking in at low end of scoring, that won't happen in this case, with the top three quarters of scoring being valid, there's a sub-rule involved where one-third of the field must benefit, if we get a case like this where a few people have raw scores of zero but not one third of the field, then that's just luck of the draw. (edit, in fact there is one-third at zero, but some of those are zero raw score rather than zero outside the scoring range, so I feel that it's really a weak case for applying the mercy rule) ... anyway, If there were such a number, then the reduced min progression would kick in also at this value or probably any later revision, not enough gaps in the field to leave the maximum raw score below 18/20. (it is 19 at present). So that's why several (actually eight) scores are zero. (three of those would come into scoring range if MIN happens to drift down to -3). This has happened a few times in the past when the field splits into majority and minority camps on a given outcome.

The IMT as expected has remained stationary at 7.1 (it dropped from 7.12 to 7.06) after 24 days and so the provisional of 7.3 looks reasonable, it has little danger of going higher than that if the weekend is also colder than the next four days.

PRC behaving as expected also, SUN might need a lot of help to get back to normal, so those scores may need a review.

After four weeks ...

IMT on 7.2 with this past week also 7.2 which is 0.2 below normal for the week. See yesterday's post for a discussion of what a final value of 7.1 will mean for scoring (2 point differences for most, zero change for three of us at 7.2).

MAX remained 17.7 with yesterday's top reading 17.3 at Shannon. Today looks as though it has not challenged and that will be it for MAX.

MIN as far as we know is -2.5 C. This could conceivably change on Sunday, chances seem less than 50-50.

PRC down to 185% of normal now with this past week just 15%, that being the small amount of rain on the 22nd mostly. I calculated that with zero additional rain we would finish at 168% of normal, as a slight amount may fall on Saturday at some locations, this could change to 169 or 170. It's just outside the 167% mark where Dacogawa could have dropped the hammer on us by reducing the field's minimum progression.

SUN did very well last week at 148% of normal (886/600) and this brings the monthly average up to 103%. My scoring estimate of 100% may need a tweak to 105% as reasonable amounts of sunshine are in the books for today already and should return on Sunday even if Saturday is rather cloudy. If that were the finishing value, scores would all change by one up or down, those going up would be Pauldry, rikand, MTC, dasa29, rameire, JPmarn, sryanbruen and BLIZZARD7.

The proposed changes to IMT and SUN in the provisional scoring would adjust the leaders' totals to 81 each for tae laidir and dasa29, bsal would be up one to 75 and kindred spirit down one to 73.

Changes are not large enough to bother reposting the table, so the final scoring will appear on 2nd (or 3rd if this coming Monday is a bank holiday, I don't know when bank holidays happen there but it seems to have been a while since the last one?) ... but with Easter approaching maybe there isn't one until late May I am guessing.

MIN will be -3.1 (Markree 31st) which will alter the scoring enough to post a revised table soon, but I will wait until my next visit when the IMT and PRC can be finalized from monthly data (not updated yet). The daily sunshine figures from 29th to 31st suggest that 105% will easily be reached and it may go a bit higher but most forecasts are in multiples of 5% so that may not be an issue unless it gets to 108%.

Most of us gained six more points thanks to MIN dropping but the leaders either stayed level (tae laidir) or gained four (dasa29). Rameire unfortunately drops by six points. A few of the MIN scores will remain zero (those forecasts lower than -5.0).

The Monthly Summary confirmed the MAX and MIN and gave totals for SUN that caused a slight revision (table is edited and now final). The final SUN value was 110% of normal.

Will be posting the annual scoring update soon.