Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

Trogdor · 25-11-2010 1:28am #1

Please post any discussion on the forecast of the current cold spell here.

If anyone would like to learn more about interpretting winter charts and some of the parameters needed for snow, here are a few links:

Forecasting snow in Ireland
http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum...ow-in-ireland/

Winter setups in the UK
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/563...winter-setups/

Lake effect snow
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/lesnow/

(If anyone would like to add any more just pm me with the link)

maquiladora · 25-11-2010 1:33am

I love this video of lake effect snow sweeping in...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-3kq-5EvU

Welsh Wizard · 25-11-2010 1:48am

Is that snow currently out in the Irish sea?? And mor importantly will it come in to the east coast???

delw · 25-11-2010 3:13am

maquiladora wrote: »

I love this video of lake effect snow sweeping in...

maq im looking forward to seeing some of that coming towards me on my balcony this weekend

ye right :rolleyes:

Calibos · 25-11-2010 3:29am

maquiladora wrote: »

I love this video of lake effect snow sweeping in...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-3kq-5EvU

Was renting a house up near the scenic carpark on Bray Head last year with a view northwards along the seafront-> harbour-> killiney->Dalkey Island->Howth Head

The lake effect snow off the Irish Sea looked pretty much like that

dbyrne · 25-11-2010 8:12am

no snow this morning just a very frozen car..... just had a look at the beeb and they are not showing any snow at all for the weekend for dublin, I hope they are wrong

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

yet the other site I started to look at www.yr.no has upgraded us from rain and sleet to snow for the weekend.

DOCARCH · 25-11-2010 8:21am

dbyrne wrote: »

no snow this morning just a very frozen car..... just had a look at the beeb and they are not showing any snow at all for the weekend for dublin, I hope they are wrong

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

yet the other site I started to look at www.yr.no has upgraded us from rain and sleet to snow for the weekend.

I wouldn't worry too much what the beeb has to say, they obviously mainly focus their forecasts for the UK.

A cold -1.7c here, also in Rathfarnham.

Birdnuts · 25-11-2010 8:34am

dbyrne wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

.

Those BBC 5-dayers are hopeless and automatically generated - I wouldn't pay any attention to them:)

dbyrne · 25-11-2010 8:36am

Just looking out the window over south Dublin towards d4 and there seems to be alot of dark clouds covering the area, can't see north Dublin but hopefully they are nice White fluffy ones bringing snow from that direction

Don't know if anyone has the accuweather iPhone app but my one is telling me that the real feel temp is going to be 991oC at 8am, really don't want to be around for that as I think it will reduce my chance of snow

ninebeanrows · 25-11-2010 8:42am

dbyrne wrote: »

Just looking out the window over south Dublin towards d4 and there seems to be alot of dark clouds covering the area, can't see north Dublin but hopefully they are nice White fluffy ones bringing snow from that direction

Don't know if anyone has the accuweather iPhone app but my one is telling me that the real feel temp is going to be 991oC at 8am, really don't want to be around for that as I think it will reduce my chance of snow

The showers train is just hugging the coast, won't come inland here but may brush coast of Wicklow.

DOCARCH · 25-11-2010 8:59am

Wind has gone to NNE at M2 bouy, so certainly I'd say those showers brush the Wicklow and Wexford coasts.

Su Campu · 25-11-2010 9:07am

Here are the overnight minima to 6am, (with grass minima included in brackets). Still not overly cold air temperatures for the majority of stations, and I wouldn't expect any different tonight as cloud increases from the north.

1 Casement Aerodrome (Ireland) -4.7 °C (-9°C)
2 Gurteen (Ireland) -3.4 °C (-8°C)
3 Mullingar (Ireland) -1.6 °C (-7°C)
4 Dublin Airport (Ireland) -1.3 °C (-3°C)
5 Shannon Airport (Ireland) -1.1 °C (-7°C)
6 Ballyhaise, Cavan (Ireland) -0.5 °C (-4°C)
7 Claremorris (Ireland) -0.5 °C (-7°C)
8 Oak Park, Carlow (Ireland) -0.4 °C (-3°C)
9 Connaught Airport (Ireland) -0.3 °C (-4°C)
10 Johnstown Castle (Ireland) -0.2 °C (-1°C)
11 Finner (Ireland) -0.1 °C
12 Cork Airport (Ireland) 0.0 °C (-2°C)
13 Valentia Observatory (Ireland) 0.9 °C (-0°C)
14 Mace Head (Ireland) 1.9 °C (-0°C)
15 Roches Point (Ireland) 2.3 °C (+1°C)
16 Sherkin Island (Ireland) 3.2 °C (+1°C)
17 Malin Head (Ireland) 3.3 °C (+1°C)
18 Belmullet (Ireland) 3.7 °C (+0°C)

Speak Now · 25-11-2010 9:11am

Cold night with a bit of wind which kept all the stations on the coast above freezing, all others dipped below.
Currently 0c here after a low of -1.5. Hard frost.

Mothman · 25-11-2010 9:27am

Snizzle which has turned into hail.
May well see snow.
2.7C, Dp -2.1C

Min of 2.3C half hour ago.

Hard surfaces is turning white

mickger844posts · 25-11-2010 9:39am

Looking good for us on Saturday

Speak Now · 25-11-2010 9:49am

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking good for us on Saturday

Don't worry, that little clearing will sit over the city

Min · 25-11-2010 9:50am

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Met Eireann says it will only get to 0-2C on Sunday with snow showers for inland Leinster.

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 9:53am

Min wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Met Eireann says it will only get to 0-2C on Sunday with snow showers for inland Leinster.

i'm no weather expert but predicting that far out at this stage isn't very reliable as to the extent of any possible snow. interesting to hear what the experts view of the next 24-36 hours is particularly on that weather feature spreading south tonight.

Min · 25-11-2010 9:56am

munsterlegend wrote: »

i'm no weather expert but predicting that far out at this stage isn't very reliable as to the extent of any possible snow. interesting to hear what the experts view of the next 24-36 hours is particularly on that weather feature spreading south tonight.

I expect to have snow tomorrow morning going by met Eireann.

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 9:59am

Min wrote: »

I expect to have snow tomorrow morning going by met Eireann.

the yr.no website has snow for where i am tomorrow evening. found this very reliable last winter so hopefully its right again. not sure what human input this website has though.

maquiladora · 25-11-2010 10:10am

Tonight

This rain and sleet will spread southwards through the country and may fall as snow in the east of Ulster and Leinster. This will then be followed by drier conditions which will lead to frost and icy patches. A very cold night, with temperatures falling to between +1 and -3 degrees.

Headline: Very cold weather for the rest of this week and into next week. A cold night on Friday with temperatures falling to between zero and -3 degrees. There will be widespread frost setting in and some icy patches on the roads. It will remain dry overnight in many parts with the exception of coastal counties, where some wintry showers will develop and there is the risk of some sleet and snow falling inland and over high ground. Saturday and Sunday will have a lot of dry and bright weather inland but there will be further showers of rain, hail and sleet along coastal areas especially along eastern and northern coasts. Further inland in Leinster there is the risk of snow showers. Highest temperatures over the weekend will range from 1 to 4 on Saturday to only 0 to 2 on Sunday. The nights will be bitterly cold with lowest temperatures falling to between -3 and -5 and even lower, with widespread severe frosts.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Brrrrrrrrr.....

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 10:11am

maquiladora wrote: »

Tonight

This rain and sleet will spread southwards through the country and may fall as snow in the east of Ulster and Leinster. This will then be followed by drier conditions which will lead to frost and icy patches. A very cold night, with temperatures falling to between +1 and -3 degrees.

Headline: Very cold weather for the rest of this week and into next week. A cold night on Friday with temperatures falling to between zero and -3 degrees. There will be widespread frost setting in and some icy patches on the roads. It will remain dry overnight in many parts with the exception of coastal counties, where some wintry showers will develop and there is the risk of some sleet and snow falling inland and over high ground. Saturday and Sunday will have a lot of dry and bright weather inland but there will be further showers of rain, hail and sleet along coastal areas especially along eastern and northern coasts. Further inland in Leinster there is the risk of snow showers. Highest temperatures over the weekend will range from 1 to 4 on Saturday to only 0 to 2 on Sunday. The nights will be bitterly cold with lowest temperatures falling to between -3 and -5 and even lower, with widespread severe frosts.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Brrrrrrrrr.....

maq whats your view on the charts this morning? any major changes?

Deep Easterly · 25-11-2010 10:15am

ECMWF 00z still on the cool side all the way out to 240hs. Ensemble mean also remains cool throughout but with a slight trend towards slightly less cool conditions towards the end of its run

ECMWF Ensemble Mean chart at 240hrs (500hPa Geopotential)

signals that troughing may develop to the SW of Ireland with an increasing chance of instability from the NW.

Ensemble mean 850hPa temps averaging around -5c throughout the run but increasing towards 0c towards the end.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/

maquiladora · 25-11-2010 10:22am

munsterlegend wrote: »

maq whats your view on the charts this morning? any major changes?

I only had a quick look, didn't see any major changes in the near term. Looks to be a decent chance now the cold spell will last until the end of next week. Hopefully longer.

danielpaul · 25-11-2010 10:26am

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Su Campu · 25-11-2010 10:50am

munsterlegend wrote: »

the yr.no website has snow for where i am tomorrow evening. found this very reliable last winter so hopefully its right again. not sure what human input this website has though.

None

25-11-2010 10:51am

metcheck is not a professional outfit in my opinion and is one to delete from your book marks.
Usually they derive their forecasts from each gfs run.
Thats rather shall we say...useless.
The person that started it up was jailed a few years ago and may still be in jail.
I think he asked some others to maintain it.
I don't know what the story is with it now but as I say ignore it and delete to be honest.

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 10:52am

Su Campu wrote: »

None

ok well i am still going to rely and keep faith in it!

danielpaul · 25-11-2010 11:01am

Deleted User wrote: »

metcheck is not a professional outfit in my opinion and is one to delete from your book marks.
Usually they derive their forecasts from each gfs run.
Thats rather shall we say...useless.
The person that started it up was jailed a few years ago and may still be in jail.
I think he asked some others to maintain it.
I don't know what the story is with it now but as I say ignore it and delete to be honest.

ya think the same

DOCARCH · 25-11-2010 11:01am

Deleted User wrote: »

metcheck is not a professional outfit in my opinion and is one to delete from your book marks.

Ahh, don't delete it! Good for amusement/FI/dreaming. At one stage for next week for Dublin they had a daytime max of -5c with gale force easterly winds and heavy snow. Oh to dream!

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 11:10am

danielpaul wrote: »

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Honestly, it is very poor and you would be better advised to look at yr.no, accuweather or even weather.co.uk. Better keep an eye on this forum.

Iancar29 · 25-11-2010 11:32am

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Snow-Parts-Of-Britain-See-Earliest-Snowfall-For-17-Years-With-More-Predicted-In-The-Next-Few-Days/Article/201011415829484?lpos=UK_News_First_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15829484_Snow%3A_Parts_Of_Britain_See_Earliest_Snowfall_For_17_Years_With_More_Predicted_In_The_Next_Few_Days

:mad:

average_runner · 25-11-2010 11:39am

Not sure what that link says as didnt work for me but Sky are always on the ball.

It got it right last year about the big snow fall that never happened!

nacho libre · 25-11-2010 12:02pm

I just hope it freezes a bit tonight before the precipitation arrives. It really is annoying to see that most of us are only likely to get sleet out of tonights feature.

ffarrell7 · 25-11-2010 12:03pm

I don't know what you are talking about - There was significant snowfall in Dublin from 31 December to 12 January with up to 20 centmetres lying in West Dublin and metres of the stuff in the Dublin mountains - it did not clear there high up until April. Don't know where you

are living but Dublin got a bashing.

TheMilkyPirate · 25-11-2010 12:05pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

I don't know what you are talking about - There was significant snowfall in Dublin from 31 December to 12 January with up to 20 centmetres lying in West Dublin and metres of the stuff in the Dublin mountains - it did not clear there high up until April. Don't know where you are living but Dublin got a bashing.

Bigcheeze · 25-11-2010 12:06pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

I don't know what you are talking about - There was significant snowfall in Dublin from 31 December to 12 January with up to 20 centmetres lying in West Dublin and metres of the stuff in the Dublin mountains - it did not clear there high up until April. Don't know where you are living but Dublin got a bashing.

There was a prediction of a major snow event and all schools were closed in anticipation. It never happened and Sky called it.

average_runner · 25-11-2010 12:07pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

I don't know what you are talking about - There was significant snowfall in Dublin from 31 December to 12 January with up to 20 centmetres lying in West Dublin and metres of the stuff in the Dublin mountains - it did not clear there high up until April. Don't know where you are living but Dublin got a bashing.

The one i was talking about was the one that was forecast for the Sunday and instead of snow it turned into rain.

We were a wash out in Lucan when that happened.

redsteveireland · 25-11-2010 12:07pm

I would be hoping for something like this http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20101125/video/vuk-snow-in-yorkshire-49bfa63.html
I don't think it looks like happening in the current cold spell, but it's a long winter and i have plenty of patience

Defcol · 25-11-2010 12:11pm

What are the latest runs saying? I've looked at the charts but its all hieroglyphics to me

ninebeanrows · 25-11-2010 12:11pm

alfa beta wrote: »

Ah, welcome to the seedy and dangerous world that is meteorology where criminal gangs roam the internet armed with deadly GFSs and UKMOs, deliberately seeking out naive novice weather fans and luring them into a world of rampant ramping, a world where only the strong survive and the rest are left to struggle endlessly with that most agonizing of concepts, 'marginality'.

The guy was a pedophile so let's not joke.

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 12:14pm

defcol,

east and north will see most of any showery activity come the weekend. Monday, and more particularly Tue and Wed bring the threat of heavy and prolonged showers for the rest of the country.

Leinster and East Munster, along with parts of Ulster presently are at most risk of seeing snow accumulating over the next five days.

cold spell also looks like stick around for at least another 10 days.

Redsunset · 25-11-2010 12:19pm

Still nothing major on the way yet. Shocking waste of a greenland blocking high.

Defcol · 25-11-2010 12:19pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

defcol,

east and north will see most of any showery activity come the weekend. Monday, and more particularly Tue and Wed bring the threat of heavy and prolonged showers for the rest of the country.

Leinster and East Munster, along with parts of Ulster presently are at most risk of seeing snow accumulating over the next five days.

cold spell also looks like stick around for at least another 10 days.

Thanks Wolfe!

Cantona's Collars · 25-11-2010 12:20pm

Here's Newcastle in England this morning.

TheMilkyPirate · 25-11-2010 12:21pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The guy was a pedophile so let's not joke.

I thought it was funny. It's not as if he referred to him being a paedophile, C'mon man ligthten up it's christmas!

delw · 25-11-2010 12:22pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

I don't know what you are talking about - There was significant snowfall in Dublin from 31 December to 12 January with up to 20 centmetres lying in West Dublin and metres of the stuff in the Dublin mountains - it did not clear there high up until April. Don't know where you are living but Dublin got a bashing.

not here there wasnt

alfa beta · 25-11-2010 12:24pm

baraca wrote: »

I thought it was funny. It's not as if he referred to him being a paedophile, C'mon man ligthten up it's christmas!

post removed guys - didn't know the reason - and weathercheck is right - not jokey subject mattter

ffarrell7 · 25-11-2010 12:25pm

According to the AA snow has fallen this morning in Rathdrum and Laragh and also higher up in the wicklow mounains.:D:D:D

nacho libre · 25-11-2010 12:27pm

redsunset wrote: »

Still nothing major on the way yet. Shocking waste of a greenland blocking high.

it's still better than prevailling south westerlies with temperatures in the low- to mid-teens. anyway if the cold is sustained, which present indications suggest it will be, a decent fall of snow will happen at some stage- whether it's due to a trough, polar low or a frontal system.

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 12:34pm

nacho libre wrote: »

it's still better than prevailling south westerlies with temperatures in the low- to mid-teens. anyway if the cold is sustained, which present indications suggest it will be, a decent fall of snow will happen at some stage- whether it's due to a trough, polar low or a frontal system.

looking at the gfs chart it seem to have plenty confidence in snowfall all over the country. tonight will be interesting with that front coming down hopefully it retains its strength moving south!! its the surprise snowfalls that are usually the best...

Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

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