Strong winds Sunday evening/night, Oct 5/6th

maquiladora · 04-10-2014 1:01pm #1

The latest run of the GFS is out, and is showing a period of strong southerly winds crossing the country Sunday evening and overnight into the early hours of Monday.

The model is showing inland gusts up to around 90 km/h widely with 100-110 km/h gusts in places. These are not particularly strong winds for coastal regions, but strong for inland areas and if the model were to verify, would be enough to bring down some trees and tree limbs in places at this time of year.

Gusts :

The model is showing inland mean winds reaching gale force in places.

06Z EURO4 shows strong gales to storm force winds on southern and eastern coasts though not quite as strong inland as on the GFS.

So not very severe, but the first windy spell of the autumn/winter with a chance of some strong inland winds, so worth keeping an eye on.

Keep in mind it could turn out to just be a wet and windy night and not as strong as the models are showing.

maquiladora · 04-10-2014 6:23pm

Within range of the 2km version of the GFS through the WRF NMM.

Still showing gusts up to around 50 knots inland, higher on southwest, south and east coasts.

pad199207 · 04-10-2014 9:35pm

Ok stop everything!

Gerry Murphy just said "Extreme Weather" on the nine o clock forecast

maquiladora · 04-10-2014 9:51pm

12Z EURO4 is showing sustained winds of 85-90 km/h along the east coast at 3am Monday morning.

maquiladora · 04-10-2014 10:25pm

Well now it's official.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Southeast winds between 50 and 70 km/h on Sunday evening and night, with gusts up to 100 to 120 km/h, highest values in coastal areas.
Issued:
Saturday 04 October 2014 21:00
Valid:
Sunday 05 October 2014 18:00 to Monday 06 October 2014 06:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for The whole country

25-40mm of rain is expected during Sunday evening and night, leading to widespread excess surface water.
Issued:
Saturday 04 October 2014 20:00
Valid:
Sunday 05 October 2014 18:00 to Monday 06 October 2014 06:00

Video · 04-10-2014 10:30pm

looks like normal service has resumed

Sierra Oscar · 04-10-2014 11:10pm

There are a coupler of elections going on around the country, looks like this could be enough to weak havoc with elections posters? They are taken place in Roscommon / Leitrim and Dublin.

Rikand · 04-10-2014 11:21pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

looks like this could be enough to weak havoc with elections posters? They are taken place in Roscommon / Leitrim

We can only hope so...

sunbabe08 · 04-10-2014 11:40pm

i'm heading to dublin in the morning. should be fun

maquiladora · 05-10-2014 12:50am

Wind warning added for more counties.

Supercell · 05-10-2014 1:07am

Autumn is well and truly upon us, exciting stuff!

Pangea · 05-10-2014 2:10am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There are a coupler of elections going on around the country, looks like this could be enough to weak havoc with elections posters? They are taken place in Roscommon / Leitrim and Dublin.

I seen one yesterday in Donegal (from the last election that is) :eek:
Hopefully the wind will take it down for the lazy politician that put it up!

Lucy B · 05-10-2014 6:34am

Why are these storms always at night? Seriously. Is there actually a reason why I wonder or just pure coincidence?

ninebeanrows · 05-10-2014 10:37am

As it is the first high wind event of the season will definitely be noticeable.

With tree's mostly in full leaf these 100k gusts could cause damage.

And wind lined up nicely for exposed Dublin coasts.

Dl harbour could get a 60kt gust. Quite a shock to the system.

mickmackey1 · 05-10-2014 11:21am

Lucy B wrote: »

Why are these storms always at night? Seriously. Is there actually a reason why I wonder or just pure coincidence?

The Feb 12th storm was slap bang in the middle of the day.

cyclops999 · 05-10-2014 11:39am

This looks crazy system set up : http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.07,51.59,2480

royalflush2003 · 05-10-2014 11:51am

What time roughly to hit south dublin to north wicklow area anyone " buller" ?

maquiladora · 05-10-2014 11:53am

Storm force 10 forecast for Fastnet, Irish Sea, Malin and Rockall.

Video · 05-10-2014 2:00pm

that's dangerous with the trees at this time of year....

leahyl · 05-10-2014 2:21pm

Worst winds will be where? Hoping for a good storm in Cork :-D

maquiladora · 05-10-2014 2:25pm

leahyl wrote: »

Worst winds will be where? Hoping for a good storm in Cork :-D

South and East coasts.

sunbabe08 · 05-10-2014 2:26pm

Have to get the train back to cork from Dublin, should be fun

irish1967 · 05-10-2014 2:40pm

Aha ! Did someone say storm

Greets from Donegal Town... Must be that time of year again !:)

northgirl · 05-10-2014 3:01pm

Wind and rain have arrived in Cork city..

irish1967 · 05-10-2014 3:13pm

I'll have a Live Cam running pointing out to Donegal Bay from Donegal Town for most of this winter.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/donegalbaywaterbus/theater

maquiladora · 05-10-2014 4:06pm

northgirl wrote: »

Wind and rain have arrived in Cork city..

Strongest winds there should be around 10-11pm tonight.

Video · 05-10-2014 4:23pm

i reckon between 9pm to 1am for here, still showing gusts of up to 120 on the west coast about 10pm to 12 the it will start to push more towards the east.

Larbre34 · 05-10-2014 4:23pm

No easy transition back from a benign summer so. I guess all of this energy was stored up for us in the North Atlantic.

I would expect serious disruption in Dublin in the morning. Most species of trees are still fully laden and have not been stressed since early spring so plenty of road blockages on rural and suburban roads likely. New building sites have not had their hoardings and cranes tested by high winds so debris may be widespread. Not to mention gulleys will quickly block with leaf fall and heavy rain so surface flooding will be widespread.

On friday evening, ten moderate accidents caused 60-90 minute delays on most routes around Dublin. I would add at least 90 minutes to a driving commute in Dublin tomorrow AM, and urge caution on leafy backroads.

V_Moth · 05-10-2014 4:24pm

F9 gusts reported from Belmullet and at Roches Point in last hour.

Bsal · 05-10-2014 4:28pm

Dublin airport forecast is :eek: potential for very strong winds between 1am and 4am

TAF EIDW 051100Z 0512/0612 18014KT 9999 FEW020 BKN045
BECMG 0515/0517 18017G28KT
BECMG 0520/0523 16027G46KT 5000 -RA BKN015
TEMPO 0522/0604 3000 RA BKN006
TEMPO 0600/0603 16038G58KT
PROB30
TEMPO 0601/0603 2000 +RA
BECMG 0603/0605 24015KT 9999 NSW SCT020 BKN040

ninebeanrows · 05-10-2014 4:30pm

Looks like worst of wins into eastern coasts around 3am.

Potential for sustained 40/45kt winds along coast perhaps 50kt in most exposed parts.

M.T. Cranium · 05-10-2014 4:41pm

Should we have a level one or even a level two given the potential for tree damage and dirsuptions to morning commutes?

Would say level one west and level two east based more on what the infrastructure can withstand than any actual differences in wind speeds.

System is developing rather than moving in, so at this hour max wind gusts further west are only around 40 knots, gradient will tighten up when the front reaches Ireland tonight. Expect some peak gusts in the 57-62 knot range (40-45 at more sheltered inland stations).

Meteorite58 · 05-10-2014 4:41pm

13.2C , raining on and off, light so far, 2.4mm since midnight here near Tralee.

Wind freshening slowly all day , 10 min avg 23 kph SE, gust 45kph

Bar 1001.9mb Falling Rapidly

I would agree plenty of loose debris and leaves on the roads in the morning blocking drains, council workers will be busy tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 05-10-2014 5:23pm

High tides overnight are timed for about 02-03h on the south coast and somewhat earlier (23h) around Dublin. Would say that the south coast high tides will probably peak early and run 0.5-0.8 metres above tide tables, east coast might peak late and run 0.3-0.6 metres above. Some minor coastal inundation is possible, although not a major storm surge. Wind direction is not conducive to much of a variation on the west coast, in fact, parts of Mayo could see a lower water level than usual at the low tides this evening. The moon is not full for three more days but it does reach perigee on Monday so the tidal range is running rather high by tonight.

I don't have access to ferry schedules but Rosslare could expect peak wind and offshore wave conditions around 0100h, Dublin to Holyhead crossing would see peak wind and waves around 0300h. Hopefully those times would not coincide with sailings.

squarecircles · 05-10-2014 6:34pm

winds picking up in the west.(Mayo)

Meteorite58 · 05-10-2014 6:38pm

Moderate to heavy rainfall now, 7.0mm ( rate 7mm/hr )

Wind 10 min avg 24 kph

12.2C

Bar 996.8mb Falling Rapidly

Pacing Mule · 05-10-2014 6:42pm

So why is this thread so quiet ? Normally this close to a level 2 "event" there is loads of chatter about it.

Video · 05-10-2014 6:50pm

Pacing Mule wrote: »

So why is this thread so quiet ? Normally this close to a level 2 "event" there is loads of chatter about it.

It hasn't really started yet

Edit: Power went for a minute there.

barneyrubble46 · 05-10-2014 7:23pm

This storm sounds like its going to be really bad, like all ready said, leafs on the trees so could be a lot of damage, think I'll get my chain saw ready !

eskimocat · 05-10-2014 7:24pm

Good evening all!! heard rumours of a little breeze about to hit Ireland so thought I would come out of hibernation! How are all you good folks doing. Thanks for the link Irish1967, that will be a handy one for storm watch.

The charts look interesting and since I am making my way from North Leitrim to Cork at stupid o'clock in the morning, it promises to be an exciting night of weather watching.

Oscar Bravo · 05-10-2014 7:27pm

Gust of 48kts at Kinsale and Roaches point with winds increasing in general now.

maquiladora · 05-10-2014 7:27pm

Power outage in Castletownbere. We'll probably be seeing a few of those tonight.

thecivvie · 05-10-2014 7:29pm

Gust of 68km/h in the last hour in west Connemara

Oscar Bravo · 05-10-2014 7:30pm

This evenings luton-knock flight is currently delayed and is expected at knock at 2205. will be nice and windy by then up at Knock!. one to keep an eye on later.

mickger844posts · 05-10-2014 7:35pm

Gust of 58km/h at my station in the last hour. An interesting night ahead.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

maiden · 05-10-2014 7:42pm

Really picking up here (ennis for those of you on phones)
Very gusty and very wet!

Meteorite58 · 05-10-2014 7:44pm

Had a lot of rain in Tralee the last few hours, 12.0mm atm

Wind picking up, 10 min avg 27 kph, gust 47 kph SE

Bar falling like a stone all day, 992.9mb ( down from 1017mb )

brianville · 05-10-2014 7:47pm

Evening all. Its definitely kicked off here in West cork, just spent the last 30 mins clearing a downpipe that hasnt seen water in weeks..."soaked" doesnt do justice to my current state.

eigrod · 05-10-2014 7:49pm

maiden wrote: »

Really picking up here (ennis for those of you on phones)
Very gusty and very wet!

Looks bad on the radar over Ennis right now.

Lucy B · 05-10-2014 7:53pm

Yup, very windy here in north cork now, rain battering against the windows, house shaking from the wind, hope it eases off soon, and power better not be gone for love hate at 9 30!!!!

Timfy · 05-10-2014 7:53pm

72.42 km/h gust recorded just now at my station in the Maam Valley. Definitely getting it's act together here!

Strong winds Sunday evening/night, Oct 5/6th

Comments