A/R 5k TT 25th April ‘20.

OOnegative · 26-04-2020 5:38pm

KSU wrote: »

Just a spit ball idea but maybe use results from the last TT to seed teams (can add anyone who missed last one and rely on there honesty for an accurate prediction of fitness)

4 runners, 3 runners running 10k with top seeded runner doing 12.195k.

Team aspect could just add an extra dynamic and total distance might keep the marathoners sane this year .

(seperate of course to a mile TT;))

Thing with teams is one runner could pull out at last minute for a valid reason then the team is left high & dry.

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 5:44pm

Our club did it this weekend, they announced the teams only last weekend

KSU · 26-04-2020 5:45pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Thing with teams is one runner could pull out at last minute for a valid reason then the team is left high & dry.

Optional 5th runner with 4 to score to alievate the risk (and if everyone runs count 5 per team)?

Again just an idea that could add camaraderie and get people interacting more directly with people on the board they might not usually.

The other option could be to seed the teams retroactively. We do this with our club summer series to randomize additional points added each round for overall league positions at the end of the series (individual and team points added for cumulative total)

Itziger · 26-04-2020 5:49pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Thing with teams is one runner could pull out at last minute for a valid reason then the team is left high & dry.

Folks, I'm a ****e organiser but a good adviser. KEEP IT SIMPLE. I know teams and handicaps and all that might add to the fun but you could also kill the goose that's laying the eggs.

If we go for a mile next time, a mile it should be although tbh I think people doing downhill runs would need to have a little peek in the mirror.

I agree too that we shouldn't necessarily rush it. A couple of weeks or 3 or 4, I'm fine with that although I'm fooking really looking forward to that 55th birthday in June!!

As for the Mile.....could we use a track if they're available?

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 5:56pm

A downhill mile, what a great idea

Of course you could use a track but you will be faster in you run in one direction that gives you the wind on your back...

Itziger · 26-04-2020 6:00pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

A downhill mile, what a great idea

Of course you could use a track but you will be faster in you run in one direction that gives you the wind on your back...

Surely the preferred option would be downhill with strong tail-wind. A kind of Boston Marathon effort.

MrMacPhisto · 26-04-2020 6:03pm

Itziger wrote: »

Surely the preferred option would be downhill with strong tail-wind. A kind of Boston Marathon effort.

or a Spanish half pb.....

Murph_D · 26-04-2020 6:11pm

The mile is excellent for TTs in my opinion. Our club did an event last week, even had the results posted on My Run Results. Very successful.

Forget adding time for specific training - a few Sets of 400s at mile pace and/or 200s flat out and you’ll be grand.

Why not stop at mile - 800, 400, maybe Chivito will even join in.

The great thing about short events is quick recovery.

Teams are a great idea but agree that simplicity should be favoured in the short term. And no downhills or downwinds - short loops or out and back. Strongly policed, no excuses. And learn to use the watch!

One event per month, maybe on a set weekend, with 24 hours to complete.

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 6:11pm

Is it elevation loss on the Garmin for how far you ran down hill? 33m? Is that impressive?

KSU · 26-04-2020 6:12pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

A downhill mile, what a great idea

An homage to the golden age

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=ZMQy824gvv0&feature=emb_logo

Murph_D · 26-04-2020 6:14pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

Is it elevation loss on the Garmin for how far you ran down hill? 33m? Is that impressive?

It depends on the corresponding elevation gain.

OOnegative · 26-04-2020 6:16pm

Murph_D wrote: »

Strongly policed, no excuses.

Ah leave me alone ya big bully:P

Murph_D · 26-04-2020 6:17pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Ah leave me alone ya big bully:P

You’re definitely a pushover. Can’t believe you fell for that ‘stopped watch to pick up a teddy bear’ story! :pac:

skyblue46 · 26-04-2020 6:20pm

Murph_D wrote: »

You’re definitely a pushover. Can’t believe you fell for that ‘stopped watch to pick up a teddy bear’ story! :pac:

There were some very selective rulings alright :rolleyes:

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 6:22pm

Murph_D wrote: »

It depends on the corresponding elevation gain.

4m

OOnegative · 26-04-2020 6:22pm

skyblue46 wrote: »

There were some very selective rulings alright :rolleyes:

Sandbaggers be punished!!

skyblue46 · 26-04-2020 6:27pm

OOnegative wrote: »

Sandbaggers be punished!!

Not them all...;)

skyblue46 · 26-04-2020 6:29pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

4m

I could have done a net 61m downhill but I don't possess a fraction of your willingness to embrace wanker status...maybe next time :cool:

Murph_D · 26-04-2020 6:43pm

skyblue46 wrote: »

I could have done a net 61m downhill but I don't possess a fraction of your willingness to embrace wanker status...maybe next time :cool:

Think I had a net -80m available. Maybe more.

Joking aside, I don’t understand why that basic and easy to follow rule was abandoned. Thought originally being loose might bring more people aboard, but majority seemed to pick a fair course. At least IT was very upfront about it (but I’d still have DQ’d him from the results).

Swashbuckler · 26-04-2020 6:48pm

Murph_D wrote:

One event per month, maybe on a set weekend, with 24 hours to complete.

I'd be a bit looser with the time restriction on people and run it over a weekend but just my opinion.

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 6:48pm

skyblue46 wrote: »

I could have done a net 61m downhill but I don't possess a fraction of your willingness to embrace wanker status...maybe next time :cool:

Ah sure it's only for yourself, if I was in contention for anything I wouldn't do it. In my club relay everyone who lives in my vicinity ran down the dublin road so I dont feel too bad.

Ran the mile flat, probably just cause it means more to me and I want it to count just a little bit

Slow_Runner · 26-04-2020 6:57pm

Deffo on for a mile TT, target time should be off whatever people ran in the 5k TT ( as per McMillian pace converter), best improvement on target wins bragging rights and shames the sandbaggers

dna_leri · 26-04-2020 6:58pm

May 6th is anniversary of first 4 min mile. Could be good week to do a downhill mile TT ??

Murph_D · 26-04-2020 7:01pm

dna_leri wrote: »

May 6th is anniversary of first 4 min mile. Could be good week to do a downhill mile TT ??

I think a downhill mile is a great idea too.

Itziger · 26-04-2020 7:14pm

MrMacPhisto wrote: »

or a Spanish half pb.....

Hey, I never count that. And it's sub 80 mins an' all. Check out me Strava

Comic Book Guy · 26-04-2020 7:16pm

Congrats everyone on amazing performances from one and all. Whatever about physically I don't know how ye had the mental strength to keep pushing solo and post such times and then to see so many PBs on the Strava feed.

Fair play to ya B on organising. This whole forum would be such a poorer place without your enthusiasm and wit. Hope ya are over the worst of it and are back to full fitness soon.

AuldManKing · 26-04-2020 7:19pm

A great idea, brought to life and a large number of people engaging with it.
Certainly made my weekend......actually my week.

Doing the results from your sick bed is 'hero status'.

Super work Barry. Thank you.

66_Lad · 26-04-2020 7:57pm

Thanks for organising Barry, made my donation there now also.

I'm up for a mile TT over the next wk or two. I agree that it would be good to have the option to run the TT over 2 days of the wkend in case of other events/family etc.

Ideally if having a TT every 4 wks or so, try have people donate an 'entry fee' of 5/10 eur etc, good way to raise some funds for a charity. My local athletic club ran a virtual 5k today and got people to send pic of themselves to the FB page, no focus on times ... Over 15k raised so far for 3 local care homes!

MY BAD · 26-04-2020 7:58pm

As most of you are marathon runners this lock down gives a great opportunity to try new things and work on your turn over. I'd keep it at races between 800 and 5km. Bring back the mile and bring the pain

TFBubendorfer · 26-04-2020 8:02pm

I'm all for a mile TT. I might even step out onto the road because mile pace on the treadmill sounds dangerous.

Also, going one mile in any direction from my house is downhill

In addition to that, as far as I am aware we are still supposed to keep daily outside exercise to 30 minutes, so a 10k TT might not be such a great idea.

IvoryTower · 26-04-2020 8:05pm

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

In addition to that, as far as I am aware we are still supposed to keep daily outside exercise to 30 minutes, so a 10k TT might not be such a great idea.

Let's not go there

Ecoenergy · 26-04-2020 8:44pm

I like the idea of having one TT per month and alternating between 5k one month and 1m the next. This gives us a chance to improve on our times which would be harder to do if there is a larger variety of distances. All this speed work will stand to us when we finally get back to marathon training.

py · 26-04-2020 8:59pm

Thumbs up to whatever TT is going to be next, it's a nice little change from the monotony of quarantine.

MisterJinx · 26-04-2020 10:21pm

I'd be up flie the mile TT. Has to be at least 25 years since I tried to race that distance, and very unsuccessfully at that. Interesting as there is plenty of time to be spent deciding on a course and then some nice research time on a training plan of sorts and figuring out how to pace it, I can see this being a good way to mull over any spare moments!

Not sure about it being any more frequent than monthly though as tbh wouldn't want to be out on the roads running hard very often.

Bluesquare · 27-04-2020 7:42am

1 mile TT sounds horrific . I’m in !

sdevine89 · 27-04-2020 8:56am

Missed this but would love to join for the next one. Will you be using the same Strava group?

crisco10 · 27-04-2020 9:23am

Itziger wrote: »

Folks, I'm a ****e organiser but a good adviser. KEEP IT SIMPLE. I know teams and handicaps and all that might add to the fun but you could also kill the goose that's laying the eggs.

If we go for a mile next time, a mile it should be although tbh I think people doing downhill runs would need to have a little peek in the mirror.

I agree too that we shouldn't necessarily rush it. A couple of weeks or 3 or 4, I'm fine with that although I'm fooking really looking forward to that 55th birthday in June!!

As for the Mile.....could we use a track if they're available?

Couldn't agree more with this. Keep it simple. I'd say a significant number of people (myself included) only signed up in the week or so in advance. If you have teams and handicaps, it takes away the spontaneous nature of it.

That said, one suggestion I did like was that for anyone who does the next TT who also competed on Saturday, their predicted time is based on the 5k time using an agreed/dictated calculator..

Finally, now I'm back at the laptop, I had a look at the 3 x 1 mile I did 10 days before. The average pace of those reps was ~3:47 min/km, which allowing for the perfect weather conditions on Saturday puts it down as a fairly good predictor of my TT which I did at 3:43 pace. Good to know for the future.

MisterDrak · 27-04-2020 9:36am

Tend to keep the laptop closed for the weekend, so missed all of the posts since Friday evening. Ill give them a read now.

Really loved the event and a big thanks to OOnegative again from organizing. I posted up something similar on Strava on Saturday morning, but thanks again.

By way of a very brief race report (as I have not being keeping my log update recently), opted for the local St Annes Parkrun course. It offered a 2 lap, mostly flat, and sheltered route. Started early 7:59am to avoid the walkers and dogs.

Gave it everything i had on the day 6:37, 6:46, 6:34, 5:43, and pretty happy with the 20:37. The lack of group sessions and structured reps probably robbed me of 30 odd seconds. Still great to get the race nerves and run at race pace effort again.

MisterDrak · 27-04-2020 9:49am

MisterDrak wrote: »

Tend to keep the laptop closed for the weekend, so missed all of the posts since Friday evening. Ill give them a read now.

Just reading through posts from Friday evening on and I posted on Saturday at 9:27, what the hell ????

Cant remember that at all, stupid lock-down

AuldManKing · 27-04-2020 10:53am

MisterDrak wrote: »

Just reading through posts from Friday evening on and I posted on Saturday at 9:27, what the hell ????

Cant remember that at all, stupid lock-down

.............The brain is custard

MisterJinx · 27-04-2020 12:17pm

I’ve never done a race report before so though I might actually do one, not sure if it’s the type of thing people here like to read but though I might give it a go for my own amusement……

So 10 days out and I’m definitely not treating this as a race, sure you can’t under these circumstances, off to the park to do a speed session… it been a while…that hurt, still haven’t managed to control my pace doing these types of sessions, legs are going way faster than the breathing can control, need to take a few days off,…still not a race.

Week before hand, still not a race but sure I’d better take it easy this week, few walks with the dogs and 2 easy runs, over 6 mins per km, try and ease the legs back in after the speed session, god that did hurt, wonder if it was any good for me at all, legs not too sore or stiff, ok not bad. Leave off on Wednesday, not running again, still not a race just going out for a 5k…

Friday night, not a race but will go to bed early-ish, midnight, sure might a well turn on that virtual concert I was going to watch, the OH “another beer” sure why not.. 1am, right bed, not too late but I have the dogs in the morning ☹ 6am..dogs.. decided in bed that I’d kip on the couch for an hour then walk them early and go run, not a race, doesn’t count… back to bed for 2 hours, more comfortable.

Walk the dogs in the park, see serious runner going down the road, looks strong, not a race but must remember to stand tall. Back and the glorious OH is up and pottering, tea and toast, amazing. Not a race but only half a cup of tea and small bit of toast, don’t want to feck up my run…. Forgot to charge the earphones, can’t run, or do anything else much without music, quick charge, be grand.

Little groggy, no coffee, hunt in the top cabinet, ah ha, free bubble gum caffeine shot thingy from some event “no new things on race day” – sure it’s not a race… tastes gross, smell turns OH off her porridge. Change and out the door.

Warm up.. only ever done in group session or before a race, bad habit, not a race but feeling racy, must be the caffeine. Try really hard to remember routines, get lungs open, quick feet on high knees, lunges, strides, couple more strides, nerves, ok but it’s not a race.

Trot down to start line, man potting plants at the base of a tree thinks I’m mad, probably am. Look for a break in the traffic, no cars behind me and we’re off. Active running, on the toes, les going, heart going, fecking races, hard work and it’s only been 30 seconds. Look down 2:53, slow the f**k down man it’s not a race, ok catch breathing get steady, get a rhythm, 4.10 up this hill was the plan, 3.50, your going to burn out, f**k it, be fine, it’s a race.

Jesus that car came close, running up the road facing traffic, how could he cut that close to me, could have touched the car with a slight flick of the wrist, 4:20 lost concentration, back up again.

You can’t hold that pace but good going so far. Round the corner, still uphill. Was there not something you read about going uphill, too late, nearly half way, just under 4min pace, holding it, half way there downhill all the way.

This is really tough. 3k, I’m shot here, deep breaths, downhill, knackered, this is supposed to be the good bit. Pace slowing, couple of roads to cross and step on and off the path down the bus lane, ok average time not ok, not sub 20 but maybe pb.

Round the corner, I though this was flat…… 4.20 slowing. 4k, 4 minutes left, sure who needs to stop with only 4 minutes running left, it’s only 4 minutes, crest of the “hill”, seems monstrous, it’s as gentle as a new born lamb…..perception is reality.

600 meters to go, decision made, left for downhill, couldn’t manage uphill. Didn’t measure it, check the watch, god knows, keep running… Aim for the parked car, looks about right, what was that again about Strava, yeah extra .1k, that’s why races never show up the times. F**k not 5k, get to the end of the road, all out now, stretch the legs, if only I could use these more often, stop breathing, get to the end of the road, cover the distance.

Stop, breathe again, nice, need more air, what was the time.. bloody watch, bargain basement but does a job, many clicks,,, 4min average, maybe just, maybe. Avoid people and slink home try not to leak toxic sweat.

Home, feckin watch, 3 attempts, uploaded, 4 seconds…what-if’s, can’t be disappointed, look at the graph, jesus that was all over the place, so much for steady pacing, more to learn. OH offers congrats and to make brunch for keeping me up late, can’t say no. Not a race anyway.

crisco10 · 27-04-2020 12:25pm

I enjoyed that

MrSkinny · 27-04-2020 12:49pm

Brilliant!

DeepBlue · 27-04-2020 12:56pm

MisterJinx wrote: »

I’ve never done a race report before so though I might actually do one, not sure if it’s the type of thing people here like to read but though I might give it a go for my own amusement……

You have hidden talents. Looking forward to the next one already.

Itziger · 27-04-2020 1:18pm

crisco10 wrote: »

I enjoyed that

Different in a good way! What was the time though or did the watch ever manage to spit it out?

MisterJinx · 27-04-2020 1:59pm

Itziger wrote: »

Different in a good way! What was the time though or did the watch ever manage to spit it out?

It was 20.03.... If I hadn't misplaced my decimal point during the final dash to the corner then I could have started the final push earlier and made to final 200 meters count, in race there would be a banner but this wasn't a race.

Murph_D · 28-04-2020 11:03am

As promised, a version of the results including cagtegory age grading. Not everyone’s bag (and please feel free to ignore it if you object to AG). Just a bit of fun, to put some performances in more perspective and to allow at least a rudimentary (some would say meaningless) comparison between age categories and genders.

For those not familiar, Age Grading expresses your time as a percentage of the world record (road) for your age (or in this case, your age category). The ‘adjusted time’ (if I’ve done the sums right) expresses your result in terms of the equivalent performance by a senior male (ie 18-34 years) runner.

Again, just a bit of fun.

Let me know if you spot any mistakes. The original spreadsheet is on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TMq_uqFNJlpbDZtTIFhIs6Xe8V7VnNP5ck9xPx8xg0s/edit#gid=1166895528

Name |Cat |Prediction|Actual|AG|Adjusted|Sandbag Factor
ReeReeG|F|22:30|21:56|67.2|19:08|00:34
blackbird86|F35|26:30|26:45|57.6|22:19|-00:15
Hannibal Smith|FS?|n/a|35:42|41.3|31:08|
Hedgehoggy|F35|20:30|20:34|74.9|17:10|-00:04
career move|F35|21:20|21:51|70.5|18:14|-00:31
laura_ac3|F35|n/a|26:30|58.1|22:07|
Laineyfrecks|F40|20:30|20:36|76.6|16:46|-00:06
Sussex18|F40|22:00|20:54|75.5|17:01|01:06
ariana’|F40|23:30|22:55|68.9|18:39|00:35
Bluesquare|F40|25:00|24:11|65.3|19:41|00:49
Younganne|F45|28:00|DNS|0|0|
Annie Get Your Run|F45|29:00|29:04|55.9|23:01|-00:04
juke|F50|n/a|28:40|58.1|22:07|

Crisco10|M|19:10|18:33|69.3|18:33|00:37
Damo2k9|M|n/a|DNF|0|0|
KSU|M|17:30|17:40|72.7|17:40|-00:10
deconduo|M|24:00|DNS|0|0|
pconn062|M|17:48|17:09|74.9|17:09|00:39
yiddo 1882|M|19:50|22:02|58.3|22:02|-02:12
token56|M|20:30|20:28|62.8|20:28|00:02

zico10|M35|17:10|16:24|82.2|15:38|00:46
Dudda|M35|18:00|18:24|73.3|17:32|-00:24
justdoit|M35|19:20|19:55|67.7|18:59|-00:35
duffyshuffle|M35|19:59|19:44|68.3|18:48|00:15
healy1835|M35|17:05|17:30|77.0|16:41|-00:25
djemba djemba|M35|18:00|18:22|73.4|17:30|-00:22
MY6.2/MYBAD|M35|17:59|17:13|78.3|16:24|00:46
Butterbeans|M35|n/a|DNS|0|0|
Swashbuckler|M35|18:15|18:06|74.5|17:15|00:09
Guill|M35|n/a|21:49|61.8|20:48|
Omeceron|M35|21:59|22:18|60.5|21:15|-00:19
racersedge|M35|21:30|DNS|0|0|
Lambay Island|M35|17:45|16:56|79.6|16:08|00:49
quick feet|M35|18:45|18:29|72.9|17:37|00:16
IvoryTower|M35|19:25|18:15|73.9|17:24|01:10
diego_b|M35|22:00|22:23|60.2|21:20|-00:23
Dubh Geannain|M35|17:59|18:10|74.2|17:19|-00:11
dickidy|M35|n/a|DNS|0|0|
Clash City Rocker|M35|17:59|17:27|77.3|16:38|00:32
MrMacPhisto|M35|18:10|17:48|75.7|16:58|00:22
Diablo Verde|M35|18:20|17:59|75.0|17:08|00:21
py|M35|24:00|22:14|60.6|21:11|01:46

OOnegative|M40|n/a|DNS|0|0|
shotgunmcos|M40|19:47|18:53|72.2|17:48|00:54
ComicBookGuy|M40|n/a|DNS|0|0|
average_runner|M40|21:20|DNS|0|0|
Zebra3|M40|22:30|22:22|61.0|21:05|00:08
Marty Bird|M40|n/a|17:27|78.1|16:27|
adrian522|M40|25:00|26:30|53.3|24:07|-00:35
66_Lad|M40|n/a|16:50|81.0|15:52|
dangerous quack|M40|18:45|DNS|0|0|
Treviso|M40|17:59|17:48|76.6|16:47|00:11
Lazare|M40|19:50|DNS|0|0|
mister paul|M40|19:48|23:26|58.2|22:05|-03:38
ofthelord|M40|21:00|19:56|68.4|18:47|01:04
Singer|M40|19:59|19:46|69.0|18:38|00:13
spc78|M40|17:45|DNS|0|0|
wookiesleep|M40|19:45|19:00|71.8|17:54|00:45
MisterJinx|M40|21:30|20:03|68.0|18:54|01:27
Ecoenergy|M40|19:45|20:09|67.7|19:00|-00:24
Woody1 |M40|21:55|DNS|0|0|

jamule|M45|17:45|DNF|0|0|
krusty_clown|M45|17:30|18:18|79.1|16:14|-00:48
coogy|M45|19:30|DNF|0|0|
MrSkinny|M45|20:00|21:42|66.7|19:15|-01:42
WubbleWubble|M45|21:30|21:11|68.4|18:48|00:19
Slow_Runner|M45|19:59|20:38|70.2|18:18|-00:39
AuldManKing|M45|17:49|17:56|80.8|15:55|-00:07
DeepBlue|M45|20:50|21:16|68.1|18:52|-00:26
Sideswipe|M45|19:29|DNS|0|0|
Kurt Godel|M45|21:00|DNF|0|0|
ultrapercy|M45|16:59|16:38|87.1|14:45|00:21
PaulieYifter|M45|18:45|17:42|81.8|15:42|01:03

Itziger|M50|18:30|18:36|80.6|15:56|-00:06
skyblue46|M50|20:00|19:13|78.1|16:28|00:47
snailsong|M50|20:00|20:55|71.7|17:55|-00:55
dna_leri|M50|17:30|17:40|84.9|15:08|-00:10
BeepBeep67|M50|17:30|DNS|0|0|
MisterDrak|M50|20:50|20:37|72.8|17:40|00:13
Speedy44|M50|21:59|21:43|69.1|18:36|00:16
TFBubendorfer|M50|20:00|19:44|76.0|16:54|00:16

EnPassant|M55|23:14|23:42|65.5|19:38|-00:28
Murph_D|M55|21:00|21:03|73.7|17:26|-00:03

Pherekydes|M60|32:00|31:36|50.9|25:13|00:24

By this measure, the top 3 AG performances are:

1. ultrapercy 87.1%
2. dna_leri 84.9%
3. zico10 82.2%

The three best female AG performances are:

1. Laineyfrecks 76.6%
2. Sussex18 75.5%
3. Hedgehoggy 74.9%

Other observations:

Biggest sandbaggers are:

1. py (01:46)
2. MisterJinx (01:27)
3. Ivory Tower (01:10)

Most optimistic predictors:

Anyone with a DNF (4),

Best predictors:
1. token56 (-2 secs)
2. Murph_D (+3 secs)
3. AGYR / /hedgehoggy (+4 secs)

(Didn't do the sums but in general women seem better at predicting their times than the lads.)

Median AG: 71.8%

Women are less likely to DNS (only 1) and DNF (0).

OOnegative · 28-04-2020 11:09am

Murph_D wrote: »

As promised, a version of the results including cagtegory age grading. Not everyone’s bag (and please feel free to ignore it if you object to AG). Just a bit of fun, to put some performances in more perspective and to allow at least a rudimentary (some would say meaningless) comparison between age categories and genders. (Because it's based on Categories, your actual AG, based on your actual age, may be slightly higher or lower than these numbers).

The table auto sorts by AG (descending) and can be re-sorted by clicking on the head of any column (maybe not on your smartphone).

For those not familiar, Age Grading expresses your time as a percentage of the world record for your age (or in this case, your age category). The ‘adjusted time’ (if I’ve done the sums right) expresses your result in terms of the equivalent performance by a senior male runner (ie 18-34 years) runner.

Again, just a bit of fun. Let me know if you spot any mistakes. The original spreadsheet is on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TMq_uqFNJlpbDZtTIFhIs6Xe8V7VnNP5ck9xPx8xg0s/edit#gid=1166895528

Name |Cat |Prediction|Actual|AG|Adjusted|Sandbag Factor
ReeReeG|F|22:30|21:56|67.2|19:08|00:34
blackbird86|F35|26:30|26:45|57.6|22:19|-00:15
Hannibal Smith|FS?|n/a|35:42|41.3|31:08|
Hedgehoggy|F35|20:30|20:34|74.9|17:10|-00:04
career move|F35|21:20|21:51|70.5|18:14|-00:31
laura_ac3|F35|n/a|26:30|58.1|22:07|
Laineyfrecks|F40|20:30|20:36|76.6|16:46|-00:06
Sussex18|F40|22:00|20:54|75.5|17:01|01:06
ariana’|F40|23:30|22:55|68.9|18:39|00:35
Bluesquare|F40|25:00|24:11|65.3|19:41|00:49
Younganne|F45|28:00|DNS|0|0|
Annie Get Your Run|F45|29:00|29:04|55.9|23:01|-00:04
juke|F50|n/a|28:40|58.1|22:07|

Crisco10|M|19:10|18:33|69.3|18:33|00:37
Damo2k9|M|n/a|DNF|0|0|
KSU|M|17:30|17:40|72.7|17:40|-00:10
deconduo|M|24:00|DNS|0|0|
pconn062|M|17:48|17:09|74.9|17:09|00:39
yiddo 1882|M|19:50|22:02|58.3|22:02|-02:12
token56|M|20:30|20:28|62.8|20:28|00:02

zico10|M35|17:10|16:24|82.2|15:38|00:46
Dudda|M35|18:00|18:24|73.3|17:32|-00:24
justdoit|M35|19:20|19:55|67.7|18:59|-00:35
duffyshuffle|M35|19:59|19:44|68.3|18:48|00:15
healy1835|M35|17:05|17:30|77.0|16:41|-00:25
djemba djemba|M35|18:00|18:22|73.4|17:30|-00:22
MY6.2/MYBAD|M35|17:59|17:13|78.3|16:24|00:46
Butterbeans|M35|n/a|DNS|0|0|
Swashbuckler|M35|18:15|18:06|74.5|17:15|00:09
Guill|M35|n/a|21:49|61.8|20:48|
Omeceron|M35|21:59|22:18|60.5|21:15|-00:19
racersedge|M35|21:30|DNS|0|0|
Lambay Island|M35|17:45|16:56|79.6|16:08|00:49
quick feet|M35|18:45|18:29|72.9|17:37|00:16
IvoryTower|M35|19:25|18:15|73.9|17:24|01:10
diego_b|M35|22:00|22:23|60.2|21:20|-00:23
Dubh Geannain|M35|17:59|18:10|74.2|17:19|-00:11
dickidy|M35|n/a|DNS|0|0|
Clash City Rocker|M35|17:59|17:27|77.3|16:38|00:32
MrMacPhisto|M35|18:10|17:48|75.7|16:58|00:22
Diablo Verde|M35|18:20|17:59|75.0|17:08|00:21
py|M35|24:00|22:14|60.6|21:11|01:46

OOnegative|M40|n/a|DNS|0|0|
shotgunmcos|M40|19:47|18:53|72.2|17:48|00:54
ComicBookGuy|M40|n/a|DNS|0|0|
average_runner|M40|21:20|DNS|0|0|
Zebra3|M40|22:30|22:22|61.0|21:05|00:08
Marty Bird|M40|n/a|17:27|78.1|16:27|
adrian522|M40|25:00|26:30|53.3|24:07|-00:35
66_Lad|M40|n/a|16:50|81.0|15:52|
dangerous quack|M40|18:45|DNS|0|0|
Treviso|M40|17:59|17:48|76.6|16:47|00:11
Lazare|M40|19:50|DNS|0|0|
mister paul|M40|19:48|23:26|58.2|22:05|-03:38
ofthelord|M40|21:00|19:56|68.4|18:47|01:04
Singer|M40|19:59|19:46|69.0|18:38|00:13
spc78|M40|17:45|DNS|0|0|
wookiesleep|M40|19:45|19:00|71.8|17:54|00:45
MisterJinx|M40|21:30|20:03|68.0|18:54|01:27
Ecoenergy|M40|19:45|20:09|67.7|19:00|-00:24
Woody1 |M40|21:55|DNS|0|0|

jamule|M45|17:45|DNF|0|0|
krusty_clown|M45|17:30|18:18|79.1|16:14|-00:48
coogy|M45|19:30|DNF|0|0|
MrSkinny|M45|20:00|21:42|66.7|19:15|-01:42
WubbleWubble|M45|21:30|21:11|68.4|18:48|00:19
Slow_Runner|M45|19:59|20:38|70.2|18:18|-00:39
AuldManKing|M45|17:49|17:56|80.8|15:55|-00:07
DeepBlue|M45|20:50|21:16|68.1|18:52|-00:26
Sideswipe|M45|19:29|DNS|0|0|
Kurt Godel|M45|21:00|DNF|0|0|
ultrapercy|M45|16:59|16:38|87.1|14:45|00:21
PaulieYifter|M45|18:45|17:42|81.8|15:42|01:03

Itziger|M50|18:30|18:36|80.6|15:56|-00:06
skyblue46|M50|20:00|19:13|78.1|16:28|00:47
snailsong|M50|20:00|20:55|71.7|17:55|-00:55
dna_leri|M50|17:30|17:40|84.9|15:08|-00:10
BeepBeep67|M50|17:30|DNS|0|0|
MisterDrak|M50|20:50|20:37|72.8|17:40|00:13
Speedy44|M50|21:59|21:43|69.1|18:36|00:16
TFBubendorfer|M50|20:00|19:44|76|16:54|00:16

EnPassant|M55|23:14|23:42|65.5|19:38|-00:28
Murph_D|M55|21:00|21:03|73.7|17:26|-00:03

Pherekydes|M60|32:00|31:36|50.9|25:13|00:24

By this measure, the top 3 AG performances are:

1. ultrapercy 87.1%
2. dna_leri 84.9%
3. zico10 82.2%

The three best female AG performances are:

1. Laineyfrecks 76.6%
2. Sussex18 75.5%
3. Hedgehoggy 74.9%

Other observations:

Biggest sandbaggers are:

1. py (01:46)
2. MisterJinx (01:27)
3. Ivory Tower (01:10)

Most optimistic predictors:

Anyone with a DNF (4),

Best predictors:
1. token56 (-2 secs)
2. Murph_D (+3 secs)
3. AGYR / /hedgehoggy (+4 secs)

(Didn't do the sums but in general women seem better at predicting their times than the lads.)

Median AG: 71.8%

Women are less likely to DNS (only 1) and DNF (0).

That’s excellent D, thanks for going to the bother of doing that. Some of the figures/data guys will enjoy crunching the numbers.

skyblue46 · 28-04-2020 11:16am

That's brilliant D, a lot of work went into it. Thanks a million.

woody1 · 28-04-2020 11:27am

well done, lot of work
you have me down as dns though, ran 20.01

A/R 5k TT 25th April ‘20.

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