Brexit discussion thread II

listermint · 21-10-2017 9:16pm

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I don't know why you both ask this question when I've already answered it.

The 6 month limit isn't effective if you want to prevent against an oversupply of labour in particular sectors. To address this concern properly you need to have quotas to give priority to British workers in contested sectors. This isn't permitted whilst being a member of the EU.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I asks these questions because they are full of opinion and scant on fact.

What are these sectors specifically. And how do EU workers differ from the non eu workers that you bring in already with gusto.

The reason I ask this is because it has been proven time and time again that EU workers have a positive net impact on the economy in terms of contributions.

So I'd love to have so factual details on sectors impacted by EU workers and how these workers are taking jobs from British people because that's the crux of this argument you have made.

Please.

carrickbally · 21-10-2017 9:48pm

The EU is made up of nearly thirty democracies each of which signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest and each of which has a veto in matters of vital national interest.

The UK by voting for Brexit are throwing that cooperation back in the face of fellow EU members.

Capt'n Midnight · 21-10-2017 9:54pm

Firblog wrote: »

What good would that do them? Did the EU say that if the people of Scotland voted for independence in the last referendum they would be outside the EU and would have to apply for admission? And the same will apply to any country/region that gains independence from a current member?

The Irish solution would be to resurrect the Kingdom of Dalriada with both Scotland as a self governing autonomous region.

For a while anyway.

Firblog · 21-10-2017 10:23pm

carrickbally wrote: »

The EU is made up of nearly thirty democracies each of which signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest and each of which has a veto in matters of vital national interest.

The UK by voting for Brexit are throwing that cooperation back in the face of fellow EU members.

Sounds like the majority of those who voted in the UK didn't think that the price of co-operation was worth paying anymore, that the benefits of membership wasn't worth the price.

Shouldn't be taken personally

First Up · 21-10-2017 10:24pm

Firblog wrote:

Shouldn't be taken personally

It'll be felt personally.

Gerry T · 21-10-2017 10:50pm

The United Kingdom is not a country, all the others are, except NI which is a part of Ireland. As all other members of the EU are countries I think, with a slight stretch if Scotland or Wales wanted to join the EU it wouldn't take much for it to happen. Logically NI would just go back to where it belongs. Whether people north and south would accept that is another question. Or England leaves the UK, and the rest remain.

Now your leaving out alot. One of the worries Scottish people had was leaving the UK was also leaving the EU which they wanted to stay in. So after the UK lies ( we're staying in the EU, you oil is running out) he Scots narrowly decided to stay in. Run that vote again today and tell the Scots
1. Leave the UK any you'll get automatic EU membership.
2. You oils not running out.
3. The UKs making the second silly decision in the last 100 yrs in Europe.

I think you'd find a different result in Scotland.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 1:09pm

Firblog wrote: »

Sounds like the majority of those who voted in the UK didn't think that the price of co-operation was worth paying anymore, that the benefits of membership wasn't worth the price.

Shouldn't be taken personally

Like the consequences of the bankruptcy and collapse that resulted from Celtic Tiger policies here the consequences of Brexit will be felt personally by many people in Ireland, UK and Europe.

The border will be reimposed to prevent free movement of Eastern Europeans from going into the UK and all kinds of goods including stuff like South American beef from crossing.

Economic war has been declared by the English when they voted for Brexit.

All means and methods will be employed in that war.

It will not be nice.

All of us will have to put up with personal consequences.

blanch152 · 22-10-2017 2:28pm

Gerry T wrote: »

The United Kingdom is not a country, all the others are, except NI which is a part of Ireland. As all other members of the EU are countries I think, with a slight stretch if Scotland or Wales wanted to join the EU it wouldn't take much for it to happen. Logically NI would just go back to where it belongs. Whether people north and south would accept that is another question. Or England leaves the UK, and the rest remain.

Now your leaving out alot. One of the worries Scottish people had was leaving the UK was also leaving the EU which they wanted to stay in. So after the UK lies ( we're staying in the EU, you oil is running out) he Scots narrowly decided to stay in. Run that vote again today and tell the Scots
1. Leave the UK any you'll get automatic EU membership.
2. You oils not running out.
3. The UKs making the second silly decision in the last 100 yrs in Europe.

I think you'd find a different result in Scotland.

This idea just isn't going to work. Scotland joining the EU requires the consent of all 27. Given the current political situation in Catalonia, there is no chance of Spain agreeing to that.

steddyeddy · 22-10-2017 2:55pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This idea just isn't going to work. Scotland joining the EU requires the consent of all 27. Given the current political situation in Catalonia, there is no chance of Spain agreeing to that.

I'll try to put this as simple as possible because what you said has been disputed as wrong again and again.

Spain would rather Scotland not be independent as it gives Catalan ideas. They would not however, block an independent Scotland joining the EU. Guardian article here.

Spain says it will not impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

Foreign minister says Madrid remains opposed to an independent Scotland, but would not block any EU application

Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in a boost to Nicola Sturgeon’s campaign for a second independence referendum and the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition to Scottish independence.

Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK.

He also said Edinburgh would have to apply for membership, a process fraught with uncertainty that is likely to take several years. But asked directly whether Spain would veto an independent Scotland joining the EU, Dastis said: “No, we wouldn’t.”

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Madrid is keen not to fuel Catalonia’s desire for independence. “We don’t want it [Scottish independence] to happen,” he said. “But if it happens legally and constitutionally, we would not block it. We don’t encourage the breakup of any member states, because we think the future goes in a different direction.”

The change in tone could prove a significant boon to Scotland’s first minister, who has repeatedly demanded the right from Westminster to hold a second independence referendum before Brexit. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU during the referendum last year, but it has been believed Spain would block it from rejoining if independent from the UK.

The softening stance this weekend reflects the new approach being taken by Dastis, a career diplomat, who was promoted to foreign minister last November after the centre-right prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, formed a government following 300 days of political paralysis in 2016.

In the run-up to Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum, Rajoy said Scottish independence would be a catastrophe that would risk Europe’s disintegration, but the political calculus in Madrid and Brussels has shifted since Britain voted to leave the EU.

EU leaders are more sympathetic to Scotland, where 62% voted to remain in the EU, while insisting that Scots cannot inherit Britain’s EU membership.

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The European commission spelled out earlier this month that an independent Scotland would have to apply to join the bloc, a point reinforced by Dastis. “They would have to join the line of candidates at some point and would have to start negotiations,” he said.

Scotland would have no chance of winning the perks enjoyed by the UK, such as the rebate on EU payments. Current EU law also requires new joiners to sign up to the euro, an issue that would pose fundamental problems for Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK.

Experts have suggested negotiations could take three to four years, but the timing is uncertain. EU diplomats are reluctant to get into the details of a hypothetical event, especially when the bloc’s energies are being absorbed by Brexit.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 2:55pm

It is ironic that even after independence decisions made in England and cheer led by the London gutter press still have major negative consequences for this country.

We should have been able to get away from the situation in which decisions made in London and supported by the London media would be detrimental to us.

We think of the examples of allowing a million Irish people to die during the famine when food was being exported to England and the imposition of the border even though the imperial parliament in London had voted against it.

Now we have a declaration of economic war with very negative consequences and with the gutter London media gloating at the fact.

FrancieBrady · 22-10-2017 2:56pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This idea just isn't going to work. Scotland joining the EU requires the consent of all 27. Given the current political situation in Catalonia, there is no chance of Spain agreeing to that.

It is by no means as simple as that, we don't know what Spain will do as the two situations are different. Any Scottish withdrawal will be constitutional and Rahoy has previously(albeit ambiguously, as seems to be his style) said that Spain would have no grounds to object.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/would-spain-block-scottish-membership-of-eu

ArmaniJeanss · 22-10-2017 3:09pm

The Fantastic Dr Fox is still sticking to his 'easiest trade deal in human history' comments.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-liam-fox-repeats-claim-trade-deal-european-union-trade-deal-easiest-human-history-a8013601.html

jm08 · 22-10-2017 4:18pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This idea just isn't going to work. Scotland joining the EU requires the consent of all 27. Given the current political situation in Catalonia, there is no chance of Spain agreeing to that.

I think they have already said that they would not object if the decision to leave the UK was by a legal referendum.

First Up · 22-10-2017 4:23pm

jm08 wrote:

I think they have already said that they would not object if the decision to leave the UK was by a legal referendum.

Correct.

cml387 · 22-10-2017 6:40pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The Fantastic Dr Fox is still sticking to his 'easiest trade deal in human history' comments.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-liam-fox-repeats-claim-trade-deal-european-union-trade-deal-easiest-human-history-a8013601.html

Some Conservatives are driven so much by ideology that if there were equivalents in the Labour party they'd be arrested as subversives.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 6:46pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The Fantastic Dr Fox is still sticking to his 'easiest trade deal in human history' comments.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-liam-fox-repeats-claim-trade-deal-european-union-trade-deal-easiest-human-history-a8013601.html

Fox says in relation to the UK that in 'the European Union trading agreement we are already at the point where we have no tariffs and we have complete regulatory equivalence'.

If that is the case why does the UK want to change it?

If that is the case why does the UK want to blame the EU for the consequences of changing it?

LeinsterDub · 22-10-2017 6:51pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Actual experience back in the day.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about

steddyeddy · 22-10-2017 7:05pm

carrickbally wrote: »

Fox says in relation to the UK that in 'the European Union trading agreement we are already at the point where we have no tariffs and we have complete regulatory equivalence'.

If that is the case why does the UK want to change it?

If that is the case why does the UK want to blame the EU for the consequences of changing it?

Yep, exactly my thoughts. The Brexiters keep saying the UK is far better on its own, then saying the EU is punishing them if they don't give a good trading deal.

Cognitive dissonance. We don't need you, we want to trade with the whole world, but if you don't give us a good deal you're punishing us.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 7:21pm

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yep, exactly my thoughts. The Brexiters keep saying the UK is far better on its own, then saying the EU is punishing them if they don't give a good trading deal.

Cognitive dissonance. We don't need you, we want to trade with the whole world, but if you don't give us a good deal you're punishing us.

The UK has declared economic war on its neighbours.

Then it goes blaming everyone else for the consequences.

Enzokk · 22-10-2017 7:43pm

carrickbally wrote: »

Fox says in relation to the UK that in 'the European Union trading agreement we are already at the point where we have no tariffs and we have complete regulatory equivalence'.

If that is the case why does the UK want to change it?

If that is the case why does the UK want to blame the EU for the consequences of changing it?

Well, off course they have zero tariffs and equivalency, that is the benefit of the EU. He wants to keep the benefit of the EU without being in the EU. Remember how the EU negotiators said that people in the UK doesn't understand the EU or what it means to leave? I think they meant Dr Liam Fox as one of those.

steddyeddy · 22-10-2017 8:50pm

Ha ha I'll be in the audience on Question Time in Portsmouth this Thursday. Should be entertaining.

FrancieBrady · 22-10-2017 9:00pm

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ha ha I'll be in the audience on Question Time in Portsmouth this Thursday. Should be entertaining.

Wave, so as we know you aren't drowning!

How did Portsmouth vote in the referendum?

steddyeddy · 22-10-2017 9:07pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Wave, so as we know you aren't drowning!
How did Portsmouth vote in the referendum?

Not in a good way:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/portsmouth-has-roared-like-a-lion-as-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-1-7447354/amp

22-10-2017 9:11pm

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ha ha I'll be in the audience on Question Time in Portsmouth this Thursday. Should be entertaining.

Be extremely careful not to talk down the country, or ask any questions that might have difficult truths as answers, lest you reveal yourself as an enemy of the people.

steddyeddy · 22-10-2017 9:14pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Be extremely careful not to talk down the country, or ask any questions that might have difficult truths as answers, lest you reveal yourself as an enemy of the people.

I was thinking that. Everytime I watch it there's a mass of people shouting down anyone who brings up the reality of Brexit.

cml387 · 22-10-2017 9:35pm

The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

There's always Yeats to fall back on.

ancapailldorcha · 22-10-2017 9:35pm

Can we raise the standard of posting please. There are comments here which are definitely not serious discussion.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 9:54pm

People who say that they want a frictionless border while at the same time wanting a complete break in the free movement of people through Brexit are not in touch with logic.

For those people the possibility of the UK walking away from the EU without any deal is still an option.

It looks to me to be likely to happen.

It is not going to be funny but I hope I am wrong.

Rain Ascending · 22-10-2017 10:15pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The Fantastic Dr Fox is still sticking to his 'easiest trade deal in human history' comments.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-liam-fox-repeats-claim-trade-deal-european-union-trade-deal-easiest-human-history-a8013601.html

Thanks for flagging this up. The Guardian has an interesting write-up of the same interview. In particular there is this interesting segment:

At the end of an EU summit in Brussels last week, Macron described the increasing talk about no deal among some Conservatives as “noises, bluff, false information”. Asked whether the French president was wrong to assume this, Fox replied:
“Completely wrong about that.”
Fox said the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy would depend on mitigation efforts by the government. He said he would not publish impact studies, some of which are reported to predict a serious detrimental impact if a trade deal is not reached.
“Why would we publish data in a negotiation, that might actually diminish our negotiating hand?” Fox said.

While superficially, this line of argument from Fox might look plausible, it's actually deeply flawed on two grounds.

Firstly, if the level of impact depends on the success of mitigation efforts then maximum transparency is needed so that all the resources of the British state, working with willing elements of British society, can be applied effectively. Hiding the analyses that form the basis of understanding the challenge is a recipe for a botched effort.

Secondly, if the UK government wishes to convince its EU negotiation partners that it is seriously considering the no-deal option then it needs to convince the EU that it understands correctly the challenge, plan to deal with it via mitigation actions, and then be willing to take the pain of that option. In other words, the UK has to publish the no-deal analyses for its position regarding this option to be credible.

The fact that the UK government does not publish these suggests that they have a different concern, namely that the negative conclusions in the documents could force a public re-evaluation of the no-deal option.

carrickbally · 22-10-2017 10:15pm

Rewrite of post deleted.

People who say that they want a frictionless border while at the same time wanting a complete break in the free movement of people through Brexit are not in touch with logic.

For those people the possibility of the UK walking away from the EU without any deal is still an option.

I have a feeling that might happen soon.

If it does the effects will be dire so I hope I am wrong.

Given the propaganda from the gutter London media, however, nothing will surprise me.

Brexit discussion thread II

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