Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

keep going · 28-04-2016 06:45PM

Water John wrote: »

Kowtow, you are right about scale. One person may manage 100 cows. But larger farms with 5/600 cows actually always have a labour unit for 100 cows, 150 if very mechanised.

In our area in the fifties there was over 70 suppliers supplying the creamery in our area whereas now there are only 3 and soon to be two.the thing is there is more milk coming out of the area now than there was then but the 70 suppliers were busy every day too , were they less busy than me now I doubt it.the point is every business has to evolve and enevitably you get more production than generation before.i have no doubt people will be comfortably handling 3 hunderd cow in the near future

Milked out · 28-04-2016 07:42PM

Down 38L a day now, early spring calver went down in parlour yard yday, got her out and she got up but walking poorly. This evening now she's only throwing herself from side to side in the field. Back injured. The north wind is lethal in the parlour here dries out the yard and it's like ice then when cows dung on it. They are very violent coming in for feed too which is when she got knocked, maybe more so because I'm leaving em off as they are being milked and ones behind are mad to come in and get out again. Getting 6kgs in parlour and going into 1000 covers and cleaning it out. Regrowth is slow with cold weather but ground with a bit of cover is moving a bit alright

whelan2 · 28-04-2016 07:49PM

Milked out wrote: »

Down 38L a day now, early spring calver went down in parlour yard yday, got her out and she got up but walking poorly. This evening now she's only throwing herself from side to side in the field. Back injured. The north wind is lethal in the parlour here dries out the yard and it's like ice then when cows dung on it. They are very violent coming in for feed too which is when she got knocked, maybe more so because I'm leaving em off as they are being milked and ones behind are mad to come in and get out again. Getting 6kgs in parlour and going into 1000 covers and cleaning it out. Regrowth is slow with cold weather but ground with a bit of cover is moving a bit alright

Lifting a cow here for 2 weeks, she's not getting any worse but its a total pain, carrying water to her etc

pedigree 6 · 28-04-2016 08:01PM

keep going wrote: »

In our area in the fifties there was over 70 suppliers supplying the creamery in our area whereas now there are only 3 and soon to be two.the thing is there is more milk coming out of the area now than there was then but the 70 suppliers were busy every day too , were they less busy than me now I doubt it.the point is every business has to evolve and enevitably you get more production than generation before.i have no doubt people will be comfortably handling 3 hunderd cow in the near future

When I was 2 years old I was 2ft 10in tall.
When I got to 18 years of age I grew to 5ft 11in.
If we had to use your example of growing I should now be nearly 10 ft tall.:)

I'd love to place a bet with you.
That one man won't be able to do all the work/labour on his/her own on a 300 cow herd and take a wage without using contractors in 12 years time otherwise you are just being a supervisor/manager and if that's the case Walter Furlong's operation down here is a 1labour unit.:)

Buford T. Justice XIX · 28-04-2016 08:02PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Lifting a cow here for 2 weeks, she's not getting any worse but its a total pain, carrying water to her etc

Lost 3 cows in the last 2 weeks with meningitis. Thought it was grass tetany and treated for it for a day before i called the vet.

Too late though. They died after 3-4 days down. I saved the last one though but she is still a bit wobbly but still milking.

whelan2 · 28-04-2016 08:08PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Lost 3 cows in the last 2 weeks with meningitis. Thought it was grass tetany and treated for it for a day before i called the vet.

Too late though. They died after 3-4 days down. I saved the last one though but she is still a bit wobbly but still milking.

Would it be strange to get 3 so close together?

Dawggone · 28-04-2016 08:08PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Absolute utter nonsense

There is no compassion between the work involved in dairy and tillage. The 7 day a week of dairy alone

Tillage lads haven't a clue about work

Take a long holiday...you deserve it.

kowtow · 28-04-2016 08:09PM

keep going wrote:

In our area in the fifties there was over 70 suppliers supplying the creamery in our area whereas now there are only 3 and soon to be two.the thing is there is more milk coming out of the area now than there was then but the 70 suppliers were busy every day too , were they less busy than me now I doubt it.the point is every business has to evolve and enevitably you get more production than generation before.i have no doubt people will be comfortably handling 3 hunderd cow in the near future

No question people are handling more cows, but I wonder when you start to scale up do litres / man become more important than cows / man? After all at some point in scale the family labour or cash cost method we often hide behind becomes a sideshow... the labour has to be accounted for because it has to be paid out.

And then the question is are you better of with a million litres per labour unit or 100 grass fed cows... it all depends on the price of feed relative to land.

When feed is very dear it's easy to argue for grass, but grass fed cows surely don't scale as easily as indoor - if scalability is measured in sales per labour unit.

As feed becomes relatively cheaper and paid labour is a bigger factor I think grass feeding becomes harder and harder to justify.

Dawggone · 28-04-2016 08:11PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Expand expand expand???

Again I think you're talking rubbish here

The lads who stayed milking 70 cows and rearing calves to year and a half are just as well off as the cows who doubled cow numbers, probably better this year in fact. Cattle selling strong will partially offset drop in milk, and they haven't the banks to satisfy like those who have expanded

Slow and steady wins the race. Chopping and changing on a whim is a recipe for failure

.

mf240 · 28-04-2016 08:14PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Lost 3 cows in the last 2 weeks with meningitis. Thought it was grass tetany and treated for it for a day before i called the vet.

Too late though. They died after 3-4 days down. I saved the last one though but she is still a bit wobbly but still milking.

Keep an eye on the rest of them. If you see one with one ear slightly down or disorientated give her an antibiotic.

The wobbly cow will respond to vitamin b1.

Are you feeding silage. Any chance there was clay in it?

keep going · 28-04-2016 08:20PM

Water John wrote: »

Kowtow, you are right about scale. One person may manage 100 cows. But larger farms with 5/600 cows actually always have a labour unit for 100 cows, 150 if very mechanised.

In our area in the fifties there was over 70 suppliers supplying the creamery in our area whereas now there are only 3 and soon to be two.the thing is there is more milk coming out of the area now than there was then but the 70 suppliers were busy every day too , were they less busy than me now I doubt it.the point is every business has to evolve and enevitably you get more production than generation before.i have no doubt people will be comfortably handling 3 hunderd cow in the near future

Dawggone · 28-04-2016 08:30PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Expand expand expand???

Again I think you're talking rubbish here

The lads who stayed milking 70 cows and rearing calves to year and a half are just as well off as the cows who doubled cow numbers, probably better this year in fact. Cattle selling strong will partially offset drop in milk, and they haven't the banks to satisfy like those who have expanded

Slow and steady wins the race. Chopping and changing on a whim is a recipe for failure

Today is the 28th of April...*2016*.
Me thinks you've got carried away with the *1916* celebrations!

whelan2 · 28-04-2016 08:32PM

mf240 wrote: »

Keep an eye on the rest of them. If you see one with one ear slightly down or disorientated give her an antibiotic.

The wobbly cow will respond to vitamin b1.

Are you feeding silage. Any chance there was clay in it?

would that not be listeriosis?

Dawggone · 28-04-2016 08:35PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I pay rent upfront but maybe I'm the fool!

Definite no. When there's some proper renting to be done in the future your reputation must be absolutely impeccable.

Most business is done on trust and reputation...

mf240 · 28-04-2016 08:45PM

whelan2 wrote: »

would that not be listeriosis?

Listeria is one of the bacteria that can cause meningitis.

Dawggone · 28-04-2016 08:48PM

kowtow wrote: »

No question people are handling more cows, but I wonder when you start to scale up do litres / man become more important than cows / man? After all at some point in scale the family labour or cash cost method we often hide behind becomes a sideshow... the labour has to be accounted for because it has to be paid out.

And then the question is are you better of with a million litres per labour unit or 100 grass fed cows... it all depends on the price of feed relative to land.

When feed is very dear it's easy to argue for grass, but grass fed cows surely don't scale as easily as indoor - if scalability is measured in sales per labour unit.

As feed becomes relatively cheaper and paid labour is a bigger factor I think grass feeding becomes harder and harder to justify.

I couldn't agree with that even though you do make a good point.
Look to the land and what it can produce best.
Your point about feed will (in Ireland's case) tip the scales for other countries/counties/parishes that are more suited to the 'feed' system.

Labour is not the restraint. If you owned 10k acres you'd find the labour. It's all about acres...

Markcheese · 28-04-2016 09:34PM

keep going wrote:

In our area in the fifties there was over 70 suppliers supplying the creamery in our area whereas now there are only 3 and soon to be two.the thing is there is more milk coming out of the area now than there was then but the 70 suppliers were busy every day too , were they less busy than me now I doubt it.the point is every business has to evolve and enevitably you get more production than generation before.i have no doubt people will be comfortably handling 3 hunderd cow in the near future

Often wondered when you add in the extra fuel,fertilizer and machinery does it add up to almost the same amount of energy in and energy out... I suppose breeding and education would be the extra factors that boost production

darragh_haven · 28-04-2016 11:08PM

Im in the middle of almost exclusively dairy farm country here in west cork. And after this talk of super cycles and low prices, the vibe i am getting around here is... well be fine, we produce milk at the lowest COP in Europe, and are one of the lowest in the world due to grazing system etc etc. And milk price will have to rise some time, but till then, we're in the best position to ride out the storm and we'll leave a percentage of the high cost producers in europe go bust .... then everything will be rosey in the garden.

I see two flaws in this thinking.
1. Milk can be produced cheaper in other parts of the world (even other parts of europe) for the commodity product being produced
2. This downturn/low price cycle could be lower and longer than some guys worst nightmares.

keep going · 28-04-2016 11:45PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

When I was 2 years old I was 2ft 10in tall.
When I got to 18 years of age I grew to 5ft 11in.
If we had to use your example of growing I should now be nearly 10 ft tall.:)

I'd love to place a bet with you.
That one man won't be able to do all the work/labour on his/her own on a 300 cow herd and take a wage without using contractors in 12 years time otherwise you are just being a supervisor/manager and if that's the case Walter Furlong's operation down here is a 1labour unit.:)

the contractorsfor machinery is a donedeal,its becoming a specalised game any way.well what are we putting on it

kowtow · 29-04-2016 06:26AM

Markcheese wrote:

.. I suppose breeding and education would be the extra factors that boost production

That's what we've been concentrating on.

In fairness they seem to have the breeding thing cracked. 100% calved in 50 days (although not the right 50 days).

But the Education... hmm... the little minxes look interested and thoughtful for a bit but half way through the lesson one of the bigger ones stands up and they all f@@k off down the lane to eat grass.

pedigree 6 · 29-04-2016 07:13AM

keep going wrote: »

the contractorsfor machinery is a donedeal,its becoming a specalised game any way.well what are we putting on it

Only machinery then contracted out.
Rear the replacements yourself.
None of this contract rearing or selling the calves and buying back 2 yr olds.

You show me the one man 300 cow labour unit not management but labour and management in the one person in 12 years time and the looser eats kovu's monkey bread.

Markcheese · 29-04-2016 07:25AM

kowtow wrote:

But the Education... hmm... the little minxes look interested and thoughtful for a bit but half way through the lesson one of the bigger ones stands up and they all f@@k off down the lane to eat grass.

Give them plenty of pencils they'll be grand :-)

No one can really call an economic cycle till after the fact.. is this a long term flat line of milk price..??. i'll tell you in 5 or 10 years... a lot depends on oil price , (saudi and russia could double the oil price in the morning)....

jaymla627 · 29-04-2016 08:10AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Only machinery then contracted out.
Rear the replacements yourself.
None of this contract rearing or selling the calves and buying back 2 yr olds.

You show me the one man 300 cow labour unit not management but labour and management in the one person in 12 years time and the looser eats kovu's monkey bread.

It's possible all you have to do is ring up lely order 5 robots couple of automatic calf feeders one of those robot feeder wagons and two scraper robots and spend half a million on a shed to put the whole lot under the one roof....
It would only work out at 3000 odd euro a cow on top of pretty hefty yearly maintance contract but it's totally doable if you operate a ayr calving system where their is no need for a massive labour requirement in the spring

visatorro · 29-04-2016 08:14AM

Anyone still going with slurry on grazed paddocks or is it too late in the year. Watery ish stuff, 1500 gallons an acre plenty I'd imagine. Thinking of going dribble bar again

browned · 29-04-2016 09:10AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Only machinery then contracted out.
Rear the replacements yourself.
None of this contract rearing or selling the calves and buying back 2 yr olds.

You show me the one man 300 cow labour unit not management but labour and management in the one person in 12 years time and the looser eats kovu's monkey bread.

300 xbred, 350acres all in one block, 30 units herringbone with acr's = 10 rows. all cows milked Once a day. Relief milker every 2nd weekend. Calf rearer hired in for the spring, night watchman for feb/March to supervise night calvings.
Flying herd. Self fed pit silage for the winter. Probably a greenfield site for labour efficient farmyard design. All machinery work contracted out.

keep going · 29-04-2016 09:20AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Only machinery then contracted out.
Rear the replacements yourself.
None of this contract rearing or selling the calves and buying back 2 yr olds.

You show me the one man 300 cow labour unit not management but labour and management in the one person in 12 years time and the looser eats kovu's monkey bread.

why 12 years ,i know ill be right eventually.to be fair heifers may be contract reared-i was on a farm recently and i was surprised how easy things have got since calves were contract reared.its not so long ago 100 cows had to have a "man" but thats well gone now and you have kevin ahearne handling 230 cows in bandon with relatively little labour and anyway we must have plenty time with the amount we waste on boards.im sure anything done by kovu s hands would be delicious

keep going · 29-04-2016 09:24AM

visatorro wrote: »

Anyone still going with slurry on grazed paddocks or is it too late in the year. Watery ish stuff, 1500 gallons an acre plenty I'd imagine. Thinking of going dribble bar again

the last day of it today.with cows going into low covers and dry weather they are absolutly "zero grazing"the grass and im following the next day with splash plate but the slurry has a nice run on it

kowtow · 29-04-2016 09:35AM

Markcheese wrote:

No one can really call an economic cycle till after the fact.. is this a long term flat line of milk price..??. i'll tell you in 5 or 10 years... a lot depends on oil price , (saudi and russia could double the oil price in the morning)....

Absolutely right. The truth is that we just don't know whether or not we have passed through the top of some sort of supercycle... 'tho there are plenty of signs to suggest we have.

My concern is not cycles per se... rather whether as an industry we are gearing up for a model which only really has a place one decade in three... the 'global powder' trade. When harvest 2020 was thought through I wonder did anyone even consider the risk that the figures were based on a very unusual decade?

And you are quite right we are still well placed to weather the storm. Low debt and the fact that we haven't yet scaled up in a meaningful sense means that family labour and cash accounting will keep most people's heads above water one way or another.

It may very well be that the biggest mistake we could make would be to invest hard at the first sign of an upturn on the assumption that prices will return to 30c...it will be interesting to see what the industry and press approach is when that time comes.

*The price could, of course, return much higher than 30c in the near term. I'd be surprised, but I am cautious with this kind of thing. It takes about 37 milliseconds to turn a car of futures contracts into cash if the market goes against me. A farm full of cows isn't quite so liquid.

kowtow · 29-04-2016 09:40AM

browned wrote:

300 xbred, 350acres all in one block, 30 units herringbone with acr's = 10 rows. all cows milked Once a day. Relief milker every 2nd weekend. Calf rearer hired in for the spring, night watchman for feb/March to supervise night calvings. Flying herd. Self fed pit silage for the winter. Probably a greenfield site for labour efficient farmyard design. All machinery work contracted out.

I reckon it could be done but with
About 5-7 million euros of capital invested?

How would that stack up against one man selling 1.2 million litres from 120? Indoor Holsteins?

whelan2 · 29-04-2016 09:42AM

10% of the herd ai'ed this morning, 30% done in week one

Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

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