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Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

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Comments

  • #5582
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Think the difference with tillage and dairy is milking is WAY more work! Also tillage men were never constrained by quotas

    But dairy farmers had the wherewithal to pay WAY more workers too,


  • #5583
    Buford T. Justice XIX
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭Buford T. Justice XIX


    mf240 wrote: »
    Nothing cures low prices better than low prices .

    In two or three years time milk will be dear.
    True, but will many of us survive that length of time?


  • #5584
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    Dawggone wrote: »
    I'm sticking by that post.

    For quite a while I've been on this forum championing the dairy family farm. True?
    Well, just over one year after the 'quota abolition parties' the perspective has changed...
    I'm not a begrudger, but I'm around a lot longer than most on here, and I've seen this before. The lack of balance on this forum is probably due to the fact that the old folk don't do tech/social media and you guys see me as contrarian because I gently tried to tease out some balance in a Socratic dialectic kinda way...

    Maybe Kowtow could enlighten everyone about commodity cycles and their average duration...

    The market was always going to take a turn for the worst with eu quotas going. I must confess I'm shocked at the speed and severity of it. The one thing that bests me is usually fast and severe equals short-lived. That doesn't seem to be happening this time......


  • #5585
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    Dawggone wrote: »
    I said that quota was the soft landing of the '80s Rangler. At this stage I think it would be better for the whole industry if commodity milk hit 12/14cpl for five or more years and let the chips fall where they may...other farming sectors had to endure exactly that 30yrs ago and those remaining are the better for it.

    I'm hearing milk price in the teens more and more lately, if it were to hit say 17c/l and no recovery in sight what who everyone do??? I'd almost definitely cut back to likes of 70/80cows, anything that is in any way not carrying their weight would be gone, and I'd seriously consider likes of OAD, definitely if it was late summer (and especially if we get a drought!). I'd then put my focus on getting a steadier off farm income. This is all just me hoping for the best but plan for the worst ha.


  • #5586
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Timmaay wrote: »
    I'm hearing milk price in the teens more and more lately, if it were to hit say 17c/l and no recovery in sight what who everyone do??? I'd almost definitely cut back to likes of 70/80cows, anything that is in any way not carrying their weight would be gone, and I'd seriously consider likes of OAD, definitely if it was late summer (and especially if we get a drought!). I'd then put my focus on getting a steadier off farm income. This is all just me hoping for the best but plan for the worst ha.
    Hypothetically if price was severely low and merchants were owed 50k year on year, when is the time to pack it in?


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  • #5587
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Hypothetically if price was severely low and merchants were owed 50k year on year, when is the time to pack it in?

    About 2years before that ha? Actually with our glanbia 5yr MSA, are we not allowed pack it in until the 5yrs up haha??


  • #5588
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Hypothetically if price was severely low and merchants were owed 50k year on year, when is the time to pack it in?

    Depends on what merchant it is. The smallest number of bills possible when things go curly. Having been on the other side of the fence there's nothing worse than a customer who runs up a bill and pulls on you a goes elsewhere. Much better if stays buying and stays paying as much as he can. Lots of different accounts with different merchants and contractors will run you against the buffers faster than anything.


  • #5589
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    freedominacup wrote: »
    Trying to lighten the mood a small bit dawg. Hope for the best and try to prepare for the worst. This adjustment would have been easier to cope with twenty years ago I think. At least input prices would have been lower. For the record I was almost lynched at more than one ifa meeting in the late nineties for campaigning in favour of quotas going as they were originally scheduled to in '99 or 2000. Whatever about the period from '84 until the turn of the century we missed out hugely on the Chinese powered supercycle that even powered through the global recession in '08-'09.

    We'd be suffering now either way but I have a suspicion we might have been established in some higher value markets had the shackles been off since '00 and be a lot less exposed to pure commodities as we are now.

    Was it Patsy McCabe that said 'what's wrong with working away, day by day'..or something like that?
    There is no God given right that you're something special just because you're a dairy farmer.
    Just to repeat. I'm the one that has been championing the small dairy family farm.

    Missing out on the Chinese dairy boom is just timing...
    Why would Irish processors be better positioned if quotas went in the late '90s?
    Were Irish processors more creative/enlightened in the early '00s than they are now??

    There is never a good time to face up to globalised markets when you're used to being cocooned in happiness.
    It's wake up time.



    Kowtow can explain so much better than I.


  • #5590
    Waffletraktor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭Waffletraktor


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Think the difference with tillage and dairy is milking is WAY more work! Also tillage men were never constrained by quotas

    Wait wait wait a minute, so you reckon a dairy farmer has it tougher due to more hours worked? Lol, thats cute xx.
    I thought all you dairy guys were going to show everyone how its done. Yet a year later, after various share spin out(coops subsidised buy tillage farmers?), dairy grant aided, intervention stock hiding you guys cant take the heat without a coat over your head?

    Any tillage farm growing bargain basement feed crops is/going out of business, any contract farmer bar a tiny handful of the exceptionals spends their life on finance.


  • #5591
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    freedominacup wrote: »
    The market was always going to take a turn for the worst with eu quotas going. I must confess I'm shocked at the speed and severity of it. The one thing that bests me is usually fast and severe equals short-lived. That doesn't seem to be happening this time......

    Duck and dive...


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  • #5592
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    Dawggone wrote: »
    Was it Patsy McCabe that said 'what's wrong with working away, day by day'..or something like that?
    There is no God given right that you're something special just because you're a dairy farmer.
    Just to repeat. I'm the one that has been championing the small dairy family farm.

    Missing out on the Chinese dairy boom is just timing...
    Why would Irish processors be better positioned if quotas went in the late '90s?
    Were Irish processors more creative/enlightened in the early '00s than they are now??

    There is never a good time to face up to globalised markets when you're used to being cocooned in happiness.
    It's wake up time.



    Kowtow can explain so much better than I.

    They wouldn't have been better positioned but the market was growing. Much easier to sell into a market where demand is leading supply on an upward trajectory. It's easier to protect a position in a market than to establish yourself in it in a downturn imo. I don't follow your point on the God given right tbh though I've often said it myself about all farming.


  • #5593
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    Waffletraktor wrote: »
    Wait wait wait a minute, so you reckon a dairy farmer has it tougher due to more hours worked? Lol, thats cute xx.
    I thought all you dairy guys were going to show everyone how its done. Yet a year later, after various share spin out(coops subsidised buy tillage farmers?), dairy grant aided, intervention stock hiding you guys cant take the heat without a coat over your head?

    Any tillage farm growing bargain basement feed crops is/going out of business, any contract farmer bar a tiny handful of the exceptionals spends their life on finance.

    Respect.


  • #5594
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    freedominacup wrote: »
    They wouldn't have been better positioned but the market was growing. Much easier to sell into a market where demand is leading supply on an upward trajectory. It's easier to protect a position in a market than to establish yourself in it in a downturn imo. I don't follow your point on the God given right tbh though I've often said it myself about all farming.

    Give it time. Everyone will know their God given right...None!

    I'm hoping that Kowtow will explain commodity cycles/super cycles.
    All will be revealed...


  • #5595
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    Dawggone wrote: »
    Duck and dive...

    I have a pain in my hips....

    The mechanisms aren't really there yet to duck and five in dairying to the same degree as grain. Certainly on the selling side. On the purchasing side, in general in this country the scale isn't there. I remember frazz saying a couple of years ago he was on a few very large dairy units in the US where the main profit generator was ducking and diving on the markets. I wonder what's driving their profits now.


  • #5596
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    freedominacup wrote: »
    I have a pain in my hips....

    The mechanisms aren't really there yet to duck and five in dairying to the same degree as grain. Certainly on the selling side. On the purchasing side, in general in this country the scale isn't there. I remember frazz saying a couple of years ago he was on a few very large dairy units in the US where the main profit generator was ducking and diving on the markets. I wonder what's driving their profits now.

    Margin.


  • #5597
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    Dawggone wrote: »
    Everyone will know their God given right...None!
    .

    On this we are in full agreement.

    Grain has fluctuated fairly wildly over the past eight years. From a trough of sub €100 to just over €200 "green" harvest prices in this country. Am I correct in this? Over the years would this sort of fluctuation be normal? Do you believe dairying is headed for these fluctuations or are we destined for a prolonged period of bouncing along the bottom?


  • #5598
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Waffletraktor wrote: »
    Wait wait wait a minute, so you reckon a dairy farmer has it tougher due to more hours worked? Lol, thats cute xx.
    I thought all you dairy guys were going to show everyone how its done. Yet a year later, after various share spin out(coops subsidised buy tillage farmers?), dairy grant aided, intervention stock hiding you guys cant take the heat without a coat over your head?

    Any tillage farm growing bargain basement feed crops is/going out of business, any contract farmer bar a tiny handful of the exceptionals spends their life on finance.
    Yes we do work harder that's all I said:-) agree about the rest tho.


  • #5599
    caseman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 453 ✭✭caseman


    Dawggone wrote: »
    I said that quota was the soft landing of the '80s Rangler. At this stage I think it would be better for the whole industry if commodity milk hit 12/14cpl for five or more years and let the chips fall where they may...other farming sectors had to endure exactly that 30yrs ago and those remaining are the better for it.

    I don't think their will be anyone milking cows in Ireland if milk prices stay that low for five years.
    Or mabe i'm wrong


  • #5600
    caseman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 453 ✭✭caseman


    Dawggone wrote: »
    I said that quota was the soft landing of the '80s Rangler. At this stage I think it would be better for the whole industry if commodity milk hit 12/14cpl for five or more years and let the chips fall where they may...other farming sectors had to endure exactly that 30yrs ago and those remaining are the better for it.

    I don't think their will be anyone milking cows in Ireland if milk prices stay that low for five years.
    Or mabe i'm wrong


  • #5601
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    caseman wrote: »
    I don't think their will be anyone milking cows in Ireland if milk prices stay that low for five years.
    Or mabe i'm wrong
    unless large sfp will compensate


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  • #5602
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    freedominacup wrote: »
    On this we are in full agreement.

    Grain has fluctuated fairly wildly over the past eight years. From a trough of sub €100 to just over €200 "green" harvest prices in this country. Am I correct in this? Over the years would this sort of fluctuation be normal? Do you believe dairying is headed for these fluctuations or are we destined for a prolonged period of bouncing along the bottom?

    If you compare to the other sectors where we get one or maybe two good years in ten, I'd say that's what's facing dairying, with sheep anyway if we get a bumper year it fecks up the next three but then they multiply very quick


  • #5603
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Most farmers here are restricted by land dawg here, what would be your tactic in the worst case scenario living here? Get out? Expand rapidly?


  • #5604
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    freedominacup wrote: »
    On this we are in full agreement.

    Grain has fluctuated fairly wildly over the past eight years. From a trough of sub €100 to just over €200 "green" harvest prices in this country. Am I correct in this? Over the years would this sort of fluctuation be normal? Do you believe dairying is headed for these fluctuations or are we destined for a prolonged period of bouncing along the bottom?

    I fear, in the real meaning of 'fear', that we have entered a term of long, prolonged, commodity price depression.
    I hope I'm wrong for the sake of the many, many Irish family dairy farmers.
    But if that's what's coming down the tracks, then that's grand. I'll be fine.

    Will Irish dairy survive as it is today?

    Should we have another quota abolition party/pis*up as a celebration?
    Who knows?

    Kowtows explanation of commodity cycles/super cycles will explain more than I ever could.


  • #5605
    caseman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 453 ✭✭caseman


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    unless large sfp will compensate

    I think that's going to get the chop in the next 2-3 year's.


  • #5606
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Yes we do work harder that's all I said:-) agree about the rest tho.

    Honestly Kev...you don't.
    If you farm 100/200/300 acres then multiply that by 10 to equate to tillage farmers. You don't really know what it takes to farm your acreage x10. Trust me.


  • #5607
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    Most farmers here are restricted by land dawg here, what would be your tactic in the worst case scenario living here? Get out? Expand rapidly?

    Expand, expand expand.

    If dairy is going down the road of globalised commodity markets, then you'll need to multiply by a factor of...?

    Why would dairy be different to tillage if you're now dealing with a market that is not protected? Because you're worth it?
    Or just plain special??


  • #5608
    mf240
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,890 ✭✭✭mf240


    60359028.jpg


  • #5609
    kowtow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    mf240 wrote:
    In two or three years time milk will be dear.


    I don't doubt it.

    But I have a horrible feeling everything else will be dearer still.


  • #5610
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    caseman wrote: »
    I think that's going to get the chop in the next 2-3 year's.

    Now you've worried me


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  • #5611
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Dawggone wrote: »
    Honestly Kev...you don't.
    If you farm 100/200/300 acres then multiply that by 10 to equate to tillage farmers. You don't really know what it takes to farm your acreage x10. Trust me.
    Sorry farming on prob the hilliest dairy farm in Munster so just my circumstance:-( tillage isn't possible on the majority of this farm,


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