Heavy rainfall Monday and early Tuesday Dec 14/15th for south coast counties

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2015 04:24AM #1

Get ready for a two-pronged assault on the south coast with pulses of heavy rainfall expected around 0900h and 2100h, some breaks may develop between them, and totals will be 30-50 mms with potential for 70 mm over higher parts of west Cork and south Kerry.

This rainfall will spread further north but amounts will generally be reduced to about 20-35 mm which would make it a borderline level one event away from the south coast.

Strong onshore south winds will force very high tides in estuaries and this will interact with the river levels to produce a higher flood risk.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2015 07:07AM

Short-range model guidance is quite varied which is perhaps why no official warning at this time, Hirlam has the lowest accumulations of all. But some other models show 10-15 mm next three hours. Looks that way on radar now (mid-Cork and southeast Kerry to be the focus, drainage from there the flood concern). Similar evolution for phase two later. Also another round on Tuesday, once again similar pattern. 20 mm with that.

Log9 · 14-12-2015 07:13AM

It's very heavy in Cork City at the moment. Any sign of any dry weather ?

sunbabe08 · 14-12-2015 07:16AM

holy smokes that some heavy rain on the radar over cork city right now. its pelting

Itssoeasy · 14-12-2015 08:31AM

Trains between cork and cobh and midelton are suspended due to flooding.

leahyl · 14-12-2015 08:39AM

Rain was pretty bad on my way to work this morning, a lot of surface water in the city.

The12thMan · 14-12-2015 08:56AM

back road past cork airport flooded.

JCX BXC · 14-12-2015 10:08AM

Another thread? Ah here I can't keep up anymore!

Can we be notified of new threads in the main winter thread?

dexter647 · 14-12-2015 10:27AM

Very heavy rain here at the moment in south Laois...Depressing weather

Elmer Blooker · 14-12-2015 10:36AM

Not looking good - heavy rain in east Galway which of course will end up in the Shannon via the River Suck.

maquiladora · 14-12-2015 10:56AM

Though the rain is heavy in places, the front this morning is continually moving northward, so it isn't persistent rain over an area for an extended period of time.

Another band of rain will push into the southwest this evening though and then tomorrow morning more rain pushing into the south, and it looks like it might be a little heavier than this morning.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2015 05:49PM

Downgraded to level one for the time being, feeling that the earlier level two was justified by the reports in the thread (smaller amounts of rain in general are now required to do the work of standard rainfall criteria, so we should probably err on the side of flooding results more than rainfall in the gauge so to speak).

Just a generally moist pattern for a few more days now, river levels are unlikely to drop very much even during a few hours of dry conditions. What's needed is a complete pattern change and a few weeks of below normal precip. This is sometimes known as March-April.

Baggy Trousers · 14-12-2015 08:15PM

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Downgraded to level one for the time being, feeling that the earlier level two was justified by the reports in the thread (smaller amounts of rain in general are now required to do the work of standard rainfall criteria, so we should probably err on the side of flooding results more than rainfall in the gauge so to speak).

Just a generally moist pattern for a few more days now, river levels are unlikely to drop very much even during a few hours of dry conditions. What's needed is a complete pattern change and a few weeks of below normal precip. This is sometimes known as March-April.

What I wonder about is if we had a second storm similar to Desmond while the ground is saturated and the rivers/lakes at peak levels i.e. back-to-back prolonged rain storms. It might not happen this year but it has to be a possibility given the climate change effects in the Gulf of Mexico.

maquiladora · 14-12-2015 08:35PM

Rainfall Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Rainfall totals of between 25 and 30mm overnight and during Tuesday

Issued:
Monday 14 December 2015 20:00
Valid:
Monday 14 December 2015 20:00 to Tuesday 15 December 2015 22:00

Iancar29 · 14-12-2015 08:50PM

Certainly seems to be another heavy batch on the way. Check out the latest sat imagery showing the 2 nice vortices swirling away.
http://en.sat24.com/en

maquiladora · 14-12-2015 08:55PM

ECM showing heavy rain pushing into the south tomorrow morning.

northgirl · 14-12-2015 09:50PM

Just got very heavy in Cork now.

Cork Lass · 15-12-2015 02:10AM

Still raining heavily here in Cork. Winds are strong too .........just for a change.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2015 07:06AM

Rainfall warning now set to continue for Cork, Kerry and Waterford (20-30 mm) with agreement from Met E.

RoisinD · 15-12-2015 11:55AM

Very heavy here in NW Clare. Seems that band is moving further up than what was forecast.
We had extensive flooding here on Sat with many roads impassable and extensive flooding in areas which had not been known to flood in the past.

northgirl · 15-12-2015 06:35PM

Torrential, driving rain here in Cork now for the last 30 minutes or so.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-12-2015 06:52PM

It's no less than stormy in cork right now

JanuarySnowstor · 15-12-2015 07:48PM

Scarily wild in cork now.
Looking at the radar part 2 about to hit

JCX BXC · 15-12-2015 08:18PM

Looks very heavy in cork at 8pm according to the Met Eireann rainfall radar, ironically just as the warning expires.

aisling86 · 15-12-2015 08:43PM

Wild is an understatement here in Macroom! Didn't expect it to be this bad!!

Aimsir · 15-12-2015 08:59PM

some very heavy showers in cork in last 20 mins

vicwatson · 15-12-2015 09:04PM

Looking at rain radar looks like it'll get messy all across the south

Itssoeasy · 15-12-2015 09:04PM

Carnacalla wrote: »

Looks very heavy in cork at 8pm according to the Met Eireann rainfall radar, ironically just as the warning expires.

Met Eireann were spot on. It's been chucking it down since just before eight. Nasty out there.

thomasm · 15-12-2015 10:43PM

Very heavy wind and rain in Waterford for last hour

pauldry · 15-12-2015 11:19PM

Just checked metcheck after ages of non looking

their website seems a lot better

this radar is nice

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/radar.asp

Graces7 · 17-12-2015 07:04AM

aisling86 wrote: »

Wild is an understatement here in Macroom! Didn't expect it to be this bad!!

I was trading ir rather attempting to at the Macroom Fair Day.... no gazebo and soaked to the skin and all my stock.. I did not expect it to be this bad either!

Heavy rainfall Monday and early Tuesday Dec 14/15th for south coast counties

Comments