Greece Debt Crisis - Après Oxi

Akrasia wrote: »

It's also rather unfair to declare every political belief that is opposed to austerity or opposed to the types of capitalism that exist in greece as 'populist'

Just to get back on this particular point, people who are using the word populist in a derogative way are actually victims (or promoters) of the newspeak part of the liberal elite is trying to impose (I have no problem in saying ideological manipulation is not just contained within "extremist" parties).

The original meaning of the word (Oxford dictionary) simply is:

Definition of populist in English:
noun
member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

I don't see anything wrong about that and it even is a fairly honourable goal to defend the interests of the ordinary people.



So fair-play for not accepting that, but you should also look for the same trick within the camp you are supporting.

On my end, I would not hesitate to call Syriza dangerously demagogic.

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Why don't you try and read what the creditors want from Greece, it isn't any kind of stimulus.

I did.

Fundamentally its lack of trust.
What the EU want is better than Syriza's counter offer of tax rises...

That cannot be trusted due to poor collection rates.

Just like Ireland, Spain & Portugal, the troika just want a primary surplus.... Once that's done, they don't really care how its done.

However Greek governments have shown repeatedly to be lacking in follow through, hence the EU being pretty hard on expenditure.
They know the Greeks won't deliver the bottom line on taxation.

And let's not forget, Syriza have pissed away the surplus.
So much for their 'efforts'.

Akrasia wrote: »

When someone says 'supposedly left wing' this implies that they mean that they are not actually left wing at all.
If this is a misinterpretation then I apologise

It's a bit of a stretch to say that a party comprised of about a dozen communist and anti capitalist groups are not 'left wing'

You're either not reading or you're failing to understand what you're reading.

I have never said Syriza weren't left-wing.

But populism and nationalism are not incompatible with being left-wing - Fidel Castro is a populist nationalist, as was Ho Chi Minh. A very large part of the appeal of Socialism/Communism in Cuba and Vietnam was its patriotic nationalism, defending the country against foreign occupiers and invaders.

A party which is left-wing can also be populist and nationalist. It's an uncomfortable challenge for many left-wing people to face up to.

Akrasia wrote: »

It's also rather unfair to declare every political belief that is opposed to austerity or opposed to the types of capitalism that exist in greece as 'populist'

True, but it's completely fair to describe parties which offer facile and glib solutions to the complex problems facing Greece as populist.

Akrasia wrote: »

Syriza are a radical left party. They got elected in the last election because their position is popular amongst the Greek population who are worn out with un-ending austerity. 6 years of Troika bail-outs led to the election of Syriza.

After the 6 years of austerity the Greek economy collapsed by 30% and there was a glimmer of hope following a bumper tourist season when there was 1.7% growth (from a very low year on year base). The 'recovery program' even with the limited 'growth' forecast before Syriza took power still called for maintained austerity, further tax increases, further spending cuts, further pain and suffering for the Greek population. And yet it is the fault of the 'radical left' that 'populous' politics took power?

Populism is the idea that the people should have a say in how their countries are governed. The previous 6 years was elitism, the troika was running the country for the banks, and the people don't want that anymore. The elites had their chance, and they failed.

Democracy is the idea that the people should have a say in how their countries are governed.

Populism is when politicians offer easy solutions to complex problems and blame 'out' groups, whether they be foreigners in general, Germans in particular, or Turks, for problems affecting a society. Perhaps a former Minister for Finance describing other EZ countries as 'terrorists' could be considered an example of populism? Perhaps a British journalist who supports Syriza calling a Greek opponent of Syriza a 'Nazi collaborator' is populist? Perhaps the widespread demonisation of Syriza's opposition in Greece as traitors or quislings or Germanophile sympathisers or Nazis is populist?

You may wish to read up on some of the more 'enthusiastic' pronouncements of the leader of ANEL if you think it's not populist.

And, in case you missed my edit of my earlier post, here's some information about FF and its non-relationship with the EP group that ANEL belong to:

Ireland's main opposition party in the Dáil has withdrawn the whip from its only MEP after he allied himself with a Eurosceptic rightwing group in the European parliament.

Fianna Fáil said it had removed support for Brian Crowley because he had joined a "crowd of headbangers" in Brussels.

The MEP has allied himself to the European Conservatives and Reformist group, which includes parties that honour former members of the SS in Belgium.

Michael Martin, Fianna Fáil's leader, said Crowley had effectively removed himself from the party for unilaterally joining the rightwing bloc. Martin said he told Crowley the move was "totally unacceptable".

The group includes the Belgian Flemish National party, some of whose members attend commemorations for SS fighters recruited in Belgium during the Nazi occupation. It also incorporates the True Finns party, which has espoused anti-immigrant and radically rightwing policies.

Describing the group as "a crowd of headbangers", Fianna Fáil's chief whip supported the party leader's move against Crowley.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl said he was "reeling and bewildered" over Crowley's move. "Brian, unfortunately, had no discussion with the parliamentary party and there were no discussions about this particular unilateral action by him at national executive level either," Ó Fearghaíl said.

Fianna Fáil, once the most powerful force in Irish politics, was aligned to the Liberal ALDE alliance in the European parliament.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/24/fianna-fail-mep-brian-crowley-whip-withdrawn

So the EP group that ANEL belongs to includes not just the Tories (many of whose MEPs are right wing nationalists who want the UK to leave the EU - e.g. Daniel Hannan) but also True Finns and the Flemish National Party.

And this is the party that Syriza chose deliberately to form a coalition government with.

Deleted User wrote: »

The debt was sustainable in December, and is now unsustainable. What has changed?

Says who? Not IMF or Merkel surely as they are the ones that admitted the project failed since 2011.

marmurr1916 wrote: »

They were not forced to form a coalition with ANEL. To Potami have enough MPs in the Greek parliament to allow for a successful coalition with Syriza, if Syriza had chosen to form a coalition with To Potami.

To Potami had completely different background. Its president is a former journalist funded by a specific oligarch (Alafouzos)

Syriza are left-wing populist nationalists, not much different to right-wing populist nationalists at heart.

As mentioned before, that's a lie.

Worth repeating: Syriza chose to form a government with a right wing populist nationalist party. At least one of these groups of right wing nationalists are allies of Syriza, by Syriza's choosing.

The Greek parliament has 300 seats. Syriza have 149 seats, leaving them two seats short of a majority. To Potami have 17 seats, compared with ANEL's 13 seats. A coalition with To Potami would have a larger majority in the Greek parliament than the current coalition between Syriza and ANEL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2015

Worth mentioning that they allied with the only other anti-austerity party. Also proposed an alliance to the communist party, which was rejected.

Crosswind wrote: »

https://xaameriki.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/syriza-immigration-minister-we-will-give-citizenship-to-immigrants-who-were-born-or-grew-up-here/

Passed a couple of weeks ago. So much for the xenophobic nationalists...

The Greek constitution has been changed? When?

While under Greek constitutional law this is completely illegal(citizenship can only be obtained by Greek descent or strict naturalization after 10 years of legal residence), it won’t stop the corrupt regimes ruling Greece from trying to implement it, knowing that most Greeks are completely ignorant of what laws are in the Greek constitution.

By the way, linking to a website that uses the Golden Dawn symbol on its home page is perhaps not the best way of demonstrating a committment to combating xenophobic nationalism...



And this is that website's assessment of Kammenos, leader of ANEL, Syriza's coalition partners:

Where the once “far-right” patriot Kammenos will stand on this issue is an interesting question.

Austerity has worked in Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

micosoft wrote: »

Austerity has worked in Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

And it was starting to deliver for Greece as Permabear eloquently states, until a bogus ideology that should have died with the Berlin wall ruined it.

Crosswind wrote: »

Yikes!!!Just the first result that popped up in Google. Have to disinfect my PC now
Trying to find a proper english link.

Btw, Kammenos voted against it.

EDIT: Here it is
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/06/25/greece-adopts-law-granting-nationality-to-immigrants-children-conditional-on/

The Bill was only approved with the support of parties like To Potami, while Syriza's coalition partners, ANEL, voted against it.

Which kind of proves my assertion that To Potami would be a better fit for Syriza as coalition partners.

marmurr1916 wrote: »

The Bill was only approved with the support of parties like To Potami, while Syriza's coalition partners, ANEL, voted against it.

Which kind of proves my assertion that To Potami would be a better fit for Syriza as coalition partners.

For such issues, definitely yes. For issues regarding economy, the two parties are miles away from each other.

A classic example from a Potami MP: "The poor people take the wrong decisions". (Greek audio)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UgoPCpsP_I

Crosswind wrote: »

Says who? Not IMF or Merkel surely as they are the ones that admitted the project failed since 2011.

There was a lot of talk late last year that the debt was sustainable.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/eurozone-ponders-whether-greece-needs-more-debt-relief-309808

With the arrangement now in place, it does not make much sense to say that Greek debt is not sustainable. It is very much sustainable.

http://www.grreporter.info/en/greek_debt_sustainable_and_does_not_require_writeoff/12121

The IMF were more cautious about what they were saying, but even in June last year they were pretty optimistic:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/CAR060914A.htm

Greece has made enormous progress in restoring fiscal sustainability. The fiscal adjustment in Greece has been extraordinary by any international comparison. Having entered the crisis with a deficit in double digits, Greece has not only achieved a primary surplus in just four years and ahead of schedule, but also now has the highest “cyclically-adjusted primary balance” in the euro area, that is, the highest underlying primary balance after accounting for the effect of the business cycle on revenues. The recent return of the government to the bond market is also a major milestone in the ongoing effort to normalize economic and financial conditions.

However, as the primary surplus targets are rising to 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2016 and beyond in order to bring down the very high levels of public debt, additional efforts are needed. Simply relying on the projected economic recovery would not by itself be sufficient to achieve these targets.

We support the authorities’ desire to avoid across-the-board cuts in wages and pensions. But this is also why it is important to press ahead with fiscal structural reforms to modernize Greece’s fiscal institutions, such as strengthening tax administration where progress continues to lag, so that everyone pays their fair share of taxes.

The bail outs and austerity were working. Unfortunately all that work and all that success has been completely wiped out by the current Government there.

Akrasia wrote: »

The entire post crisis response was to layer on hundreds of billions of private banking debt onto the shoulders of the ordinary tax payers of Europe.

This is 100%, totally and utterly irrelevant in a discussion about Greece. It has no bearing. None. In Greece the EU was bailing out a Government and a people who simply managed their way into a giant hole and had no other way out.