Greece Debt Crisis - Après Oxi

Grandpa Hassan · 07-07-2015 11:56AM

Thomas_. wrote: »

I wonder why it is so often omitted that the Greek State never made much efforts to get hold of those of her citizens that are cunning and eager enough to avoid paying taxes and transfer their money abroad.

I´ve not just once read about the attitude of the Greeks regarding paying taxes where it was stated that is "common sense" to either avoid paying taxes or if that´s not possible, to pay as less one can. So where shall the Money come from to consolidate the finances of that Country?

Solidarity is a good thing and I´m all for it, but solidarity doesn´t mean to have others acting the nanny and paying for the faults of the State who is responsible for its own doing in the first place. Still, there is no sign from the Tsipras govt. to get a grip on that one, always putting the blame for all the wrongs on the EU. One should not forget that it turned out that the Greeks fooled the whole of the EU when applying to enter the Euro Zone. The lack of more scrutiny by the EU on the figures that were put forward to the EU and ECB by the Greek govt. to join the Euro is of course the failure of the EU and ECB together. But again, the Greek State has her share in the blame for it, given that in hindsight, they tricked the "Club".

We´ll see how this Greek "Dramas" will continue and how much Money for them will be thrown out of the window for nothing because whatever the proposals are they are coming up with, as Long as they can´t bring about a Change on the tax pay mentality of their own People, there will be no cure to it. Just pay and pay and pay and I think that many people across the EU are already fed up with that "faul Play" by Tsipras and his Comerades.

Greece isn´t the only country that had to cope with austerities, others had to do as well but they weren´t that incapable like this current and their precessors governments altogether.

I was not omitting anything. The Greeks have a lot to answer for. I was observing that the troika portay themselves as blameless, despite the fact that they ignore realities and that their model when applied to different countries is expected to have the same result, so beholden are they to the one true way. Responding to posts about how different economies respond in different ways to the same medicine.

Again, as is common, you skip over my point to dwell on the past, what led us to this point etc. If you want Greece to be punished for this, then fine. But just come out and say it. As should Merkel.

There is no reason for the lack of pragmatism being shown by the EU and ECB other than a desire to punish because of the sins of the past

07-07-2015 11:56AM

Crosswind wrote: »

Ah yes, the good old tax evasion...
https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4004.html

Shall we bring tax avoidance to the table as well and how much it affects the countries where the corp tax should go to in the first place?

Are you presenting that paper as some sort of proof that there is not a problem of Tax evasion in Greece?

Flies in the face of first hand accounts from people who very involved in tax collection in Greece

2013-2014 Secretary General for Public Revenue and current MP

Haris Theoharis wrote:

“In Greece more than two-thirds of the population – private- and public-sector employees – pay tax in the normal way, because it is deducted at source,” Theoharis explains. “The problem is that it’s still too easy for contractors, people in the professions and some big companies not to declare all or part of their earnings.”

He claims the state misses out on between €10bn and €20bn in revenue. Direct and indirect taxation should bring in an average of €50bn a year.

(not a direct quote)

How about the thoughts of Tryfon Alexiadis, currently the deputy head of the tax collectors' union.

Tryfon Alexiadis wrote:

“Even with a low estimate of the amount lost – say €5bn a year – you can see that if we’d been able to collect €5bn more over the past 12 years, that would make €60bn. In other words there would be no debt problem,” says

Tryfon Alexiadis wrote:

It’s the protection governing policymakers give their friends and the lack of political will to deal with the very big tax evaders.

This is an excellent opinion piece imo, not all relevant to tax, but the final statement is at least worth a read

If that’s not fixed, irrespective of whether the currency of Greece is the euro, the drachma or the rupiah, there can be no end to Greece’s plight. Is Tsipras likely to fix that? I’ll give you a hint: most Greek oligarchs voiced their support for Tsipras ahead of the general election in January. Before him, they of course supported his predecessor.

Crosswind · 07-07-2015 11:57AM

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I was not omitting anything. The Greeks have a lot to answer for. I was observing that the troika portay themselves as blameless, despite the fact that they ignore realities and that their model when applied to different countries is expected to have the same result, so beholden are they to the one true way.

This exactly!

07-07-2015 11:58AM

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I was not omitting anything. The Greeks have a lot to answer for. I was observing that the troika portay themselves as blameless, despite the fact that they ignore realities and that their model when applied to different countries is expected to have the same result, so beholden are they to the one true way. Responding to posts about how different economies respond in different ways to the same medicine.

Again, as is common, you skip over my point to dwell on the past, what led us to this point etc. If you want Greece to be punished for this, then fine. But just come out and say it. As should Merkel.

There is no reason for the lack of pragmatism being shown by the EU and ECB other than a desire to punish because of the sins of the past

The 'model' is literally as simple as "tighten the purse strings, improve efficiency, improve income".

Crosswind · 07-07-2015 12:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you presenting that paper as some sort of proof that there is not a problem of Tax evasion in Greece?

No, i'm presenting that paper because quite a few of the so called "good countries" that are considered to be an example are either at the same level or with higher tax evasion than Greece. Yet, you never hear anything about them.

07-07-2015 12:05PM

Crosswind wrote: »

No, i'm presenting that paper because quite a few of the so called "good countries" that are considered to be an example are either at the same level or with higher tax evasion than Greece. Yet, you never hear anything about them.

How many of them are in talks with lenders of last resort in order to unlock funds?

Greece is in a remarkably acute situation, all leaks must be tidied up. I don't think whataboutery is that important here.

You could be quite certain that if the IMF were requested to assist any of the so called "good countries" that they would demand tax reforms there too.

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 12:15PM

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I was not omitting anything. The Greeks have a lot to answer for. I was observing that the troika portay themselves as blameless, despite the fact that they ignore realities and that their model when applied to different countries is expected to have the same result, so beholden are they to the one true way. Responding to posts about how different economies respond in different ways to the same medicine.

Again, as is common, you skip over my point to dwell on the past, what led us to this point etc. If you want Greece to be punished for this, then fine. But just come out and say it. As should Merkel.

There is no reason for the lack of pragmatism being shown by the EU and ECB other than a desire to punish because of the sins of the past

What is the Greek government prepared to do to avoid the sins of the past in the first place?

This isn´t all about "punish the Greeks for their past sins", this is more about to help them to be able to help themselves and not just clinging on the neverending(?) money transfer from the ECB.

So far, as I´ve noticed, the Tsipras govt. is doing nothing different in compare to their predecessors. They put the burden on the shoulders of those who voted them in power. That´s the vulnerable, the weak and the pensioners.

Yet aparat from some "announcement" by the now gone Finance Minister Varoufakis, to get hold of the tax evasion problem, nothing has been done to get a grip on that.

Little wonder when you read on BBC articles about how the political system in Greece works. Most of the voters who elected a candidate expect from them personally to take care of their (the elector´s) personal wishes. For example to get this or that be done for him by the elected parliamentarian, in other words to either use his influence or even more interfere directly to get favours done. I mean, that´s not the exact principle of a parliamentarian democracy, that´s just open corruption. So when one has the wish to be exempted from paying taxes, he puts it to his elected member of Parliament and says to him that this is why he has given him his vote. So "off you go and do as you told, never mind being a representative in the Parliament in the first place, serve my vested interests". No wonder that corruption can thrive by such a common attitude.

youtube! · 07-07-2015 12:24PM

What is it like for the Greek people on a day to day basis ? Are wages being paid? Is there food on the shelves? Are people going to work? etc etc..

Godge · 07-07-2015 12:48PM

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jul/07/greek-debt-crisis-alex-tsipras-seeks-last-chance-deal-live

Been reading the Guardian live page, a deal will be very difficult.

"De Guindos: When asked about debt relief - this is not a urgent q right now. We first have to decide on if conditions can be implemented"

That is from the Spanish who have been more tolerant of the Greeks.

"Latvia's fin min: we put our house in order quickly after ec crisis. Not against #Grexit to strengthen eurozone"

This sums up the Eastern European attitude. We have taken the medicine and fixed our economies, why didn't Greece do the same? Slovakia, Lithuania etc. talking in similar terms.

"FINLAND'S STUBB SAYS NOT WILLING TO EASE GREECE'S DEBT BURDEN"

Similarly, the Finns, like Ireland have sorted out their finances following crises, are not in the mood to help Greece.

This all depends on how much reform Greece can promise and deliver. Given the collapse in the State finances, the reform required is much bigger.

Godge · 07-07-2015 12:54PM

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I was not omitting anything. The Greeks have a lot to answer for. I was observing that the troika portay themselves as blameless, despite the fact that they ignore realities and that their model when applied to different countries is expected to have the same result, so beholden are they to the one true way. Responding to posts about how different economies respond in different ways to the same medicine.

Again, as is common, you skip over my point to dwell on the past, what led us to this point etc. If you want Greece to be punished for this, then fine. But just come out and say it. As should Merkel.

There is no reason for the lack of pragmatism being shown by the EU and ECB other than a desire to punish because of the sins of the past

The reality that the Troika "ignored" was the lack of a functioning tax system.

It doesn't matter what type of economy you want from a socialist left-wing to a minimal interventionist right-wing, so long as you have a functioning tax system that will collect the level of taxes required to finance your preference. That is why successive Greek governments of different hues have been unable to deal with the crisis.

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 12:56PM

Godge wrote: »

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jul/07/greek-debt-crisis-alex-tsipras-seeks-last-chance-deal-live

Been reading the Guardian live page, a deal will be very difficult.

"De Guindos: When asked about debt relief - this is not a urgent q right now. We first have to decide on if conditions can be implemented"

That is from the Spanish who have been more tolerant of the Greeks.

"Latvia's fin min: we put our house in order quickly after ec crisis. Not against #Grexit to strengthen eurozone"

This sums up the Eastern European attitude. We have taken the medicine and fixed our economies, why didn't Greece do the same? Slovakia, Lithuania etc. talking in similar terms.

"FINLAND'S STUBB SAYS NOT WILLING TO EASE GREECE'S DEBT BURDEN"

Similarly, the Finns, like Ireland have sorted out their finances following crises, are not in the mood to help Greece.

This all depends on how much reform Greece can promise and deliver. Given the collapse in the State finances, the reform required is much bigger.

Just to add a new incoming Statement on the BBC News Website:

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-33383653

Germany's Gabriel: Elites 'plundered Greece'
Germany's outspoken vice chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, has some ideas about who is to blame for Greece's current predicament. This is what he said during a visit to the city of Magdeburg in eastern Germany:
"I am also often annoyed by what the current Greek government is doing. But part of the truth is: the misery is not their fault. Rather, it's the previous governments, the economic and political elite which plundered the country. It must be said that Europe stood by and watched for a pretty long time and said nothing and did nothing."

Sigmar GabielVice chancellor, Germany

and

Finance ministers meetBBC business correspondent Joe Lynam tweets from Athens:

Joe Lynam BBC Biz
BBC_Joe_Lynam

[/URL]
Slovakian Fin Min Kazimir: "Debt relief is the most delicate issue for us. This is a red line for my country. It is impossible" #Greece

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 12:58PM

Godge wrote: »

The reality that the Troika "ignored" was the lack of a functioning tax system.

It doesn't matter what type of economy you want from a socialist left-wing to a minimal interventionist right-wing, so long as you have a functioning tax system that will collect the level of taxes required to finance your preference. That is why successive Greek governments of different hues have been unable to deal with the crisis.

Hear, hear! That´s exactly the point I was trying to make. Spot on!

Permabear · 07-07-2015 12:59PM

This post has been deleted.

07-07-2015 12:59PM

Godge wrote: »

The reality that the Troika "ignored" was the lack of a functioning tax system.

It doesn't matter what type of economy you want from a socialist left-wing to a minimal interventionist right-wing, so long as you have a functioning tax system that will collect the level of taxes required to finance your preference. That is why successive Greek governments of different hues have been unable to deal with the crisis.

The Troika has no remit to enforce law. And should never do!

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 01:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The Troika has no remit to enforce law. And should never do!

But they are right to point out where the (money) bucket stops.

Godge · 07-07-2015 01:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The Troika has no remit to enforce law. And should never do!

I know that. Ignored was in inverted commas.

It was the problem they had from the start and the one they could do nothing about. It relied on the Greeks to solve it.

As tax rates went up, evasion went up faster, meaning austerity never worked.

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 01:04PM

Godge wrote: »

I know that. Ignored was in inverted commas.

It was the problem they had from the start and the one they could do nothing about. It relied on the Greeks to solve it.

As tax rates went up, evasion went up faster, meaning austerity never worked.

It went down the same road with the money drawings from their accounts the week before and now those who have no bank cards, have to see how they come to their Money until the Banks reopen again.

I take it that despite the over 60% in the last referendum, the people don´t put much trust into their government or even their State. That is to say as if "they know their lot perfectly well".

07-07-2015 02:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Greece has already undergone significant internal devaluation without having effected adequate structural reforms.

Can you expand on this please?
What are we counting as an internal devaluation? Just that GDP has decreased?

No. The poster and I were referring to Greek exports; in that context, (and in any bailout context) the internal devaluation refers specifically to falling costs relative to competitor economies, with ULCs as a proxy, independently of the nominal exchange rate.

Deleted User wrote: »

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

There is no sense in your attempt to distinguish between internal and external devaluations by claiming that the latter kills Greece.

It's probably as simple as me not understanding quite what you mean by internal devaluation, but could you expand on this too please?

I don't see anything ambiguous about it. There's no credible basis for claiming that an external devaluation is an explicitly harmful monetary policy for the Greek economy, when at the same time defending the EU-EA/IMF policy of internal devaluation.

At the end of the day, both seek to improve competitiveness by reducing costs relative to competitor economies. One does it by changing the exchange rate, the other does it through austerity, which can be slower and more cumbersome. Even Milton Friedman thought so for goodness sake.

If you're starting to out-Friedman Friedman, it should set off some alarm bells.

Thomas_. · 07-07-2015 02:09PM

From some other contributor on the BBC News Website:

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-33383653

Via Email

Taxing times

Posted at 13:48

Live page reader Georg Walther says, "Not long ago a Greek journalist published a list of Greek tax evaders." He's talking about Costas Vaxevanis, who went on trial in 2012 for breach of privacy after publishing the names of 2,000 Greeks with Swiss bank accounts. "I'd say the Germans are correct demanding serious reform," says Mr Walther.

For Reals · 07-07-2015 03:36PM

It's becoming far too common now, with this crisis or any other;
The system in place is set and maintained by the EU/Financiers correct?
When it all goes awry it can only be fixed by following the austerity measures brought in by EU/Financiers, correct?
Yet it's the fault of these nations, be it Greece or whomever for playing the game for decades under the rules and governorship of these EU/Financiers? Is it the case of 'we got greedy' really? People buy that Fianna Fail chestnut?
It's almost as if the EEC, (lets face it that's what it is) is a money lender and they set their own terms under the guise of community.
Banks don't loan you money because they think you're swell. And there is a great deal in it for Europe if Greece receives further funding, the EU system remains stable and they can continue to bleed elsewhere. The only question now is how to bail out Greece but maintain face. The rest is just posturing. Greece is playing poker, we played snap.

Synode · 07-07-2015 03:57PM

For Reals wrote: »

It's becoming far too common now, with this crisis or any other;
The system in place is set and maintained by the EU/Financiers correct?
When it all goes awry it can only be fixed by following the austerity measures brought in by EU/Financiers, correct?
Yet it's the fault of these nations, be it Greece or whomever for playing the game for decades under the rules and governorship of these EU/Financiers? Is it the case of 'we got greedy' really? People buy that Fianna Fail chestnut?
It's almost as if the EEC, (lets face it that's what it is) is a money lender and they set their own terms under the guise of community.
Banks don't loan you money because they think you're swell. And there is a great deal in it for Europe if Greece receives further funding, the EU system remains stable and they can continue to bleed elsewhere. The only question now is how to bail out Greece but maintain face. The rest is just posturing. Greece is playing poker, we played snap.

No it's spending the money that was loaned to you in good faith without making any of the necessary adjustments to correct your budget deficits. We're now at the stage that nobody will loan money to Greece unless they make the changes i.e. they're being forced to. Which is completely understandable

Permabear · 07-07-2015 04:07PM

This post has been deleted.

Crosswind · 07-07-2015 04:24PM

Godge wrote: »

As tax rates went up, evasion went up faster, meaning austerity never worked.

Source for this? Numbers from 1999-2010 show that evasion went down 30%. And since tax evasion was mainly done by the self employed and small businesses, now that most of these went bust, percentage should be even lower.

Synode · 07-07-2015 04:28PM

That's what happened in Ireland in the 70s/80s. As they increased income tax rates to ridiculous levels, all the money started flowing offshore into Ansbacher accounts and the like

07-07-2015 04:32PM

Crosswind wrote: »

Source for this? Numbers from 1999-2010 show that evasion went down 30%. And since tax evasion was mainly done by the self employed and small businesses, now that most of these went bust, percentage should be even lower.

Numbers of instances, but definitely not the value

From the article posted earlier
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/one-heretic-and-not-so-simple-view-greek-referendum

Greece’s cancer is the purely domestic cleptocracy which has been sucking the country dry for at least thirty-five years (that’s as far back as I can remember, older people may argue this may have been going on for much longer).

You think I’m exaggerating? Let’s look at a couple of interesting statistics, then. According to the UN comtrade database, supplies of bunker fuel to ships in Greece went from $25m in 2008 to $1.72bn in 2014. Exports of fuel to Turkey went from $204m in 2007 to $3.2bn in 2014. Exports of fuel to FYR of Macedonia in the same timeframe went from $72m to $614m (for comparison purposes, Greece’s GDP in 2014 was $238bn). Either Greek refineries got very efficient during the crisis, or other refineries in the region got very inefficient. Or it could be that the cleptocrats, hit by the crisis in their other half-way legit businesses, had to supplement their income with other, far more lucrative ventures.

Well, according to the New York Times “Organized crime […]dominates the black market for oil in Greece; perhaps three billion euros (about $3.8 billion) a year of contraband fuel courses through the country. Shipping is Greece’s premier industry, and the price of shipping fuel is set by law at one-third the price of fuel for cars and homes. So traffickers turn shipping fuel into more expensive home and automobile fuel. It is estimated that 20 percent of the gasoline sold in Greece is from the black market. The trafficking not only results in higher prices but also deprives the government of desperately needed revenue”.

According to the FT “George Papandreou, the former socialist premier who resigned in 2011, also claimed he was brought down by oligarchs after a finance ministry campaign to tackle widespread fuel smuggling revealed a Balkanwide scam that cost Greece €3bn a year in lost taxes”.

Its’ not as if these smugglers are thousands. They’re a handful of people, whom practically every Greek knows by name. Unlike Escobar, they are not in hiding. They’re feted by the press as “successful businessmen” and are being sat next to prime ministers.

There are similar tales to be told in natural gas, energy and practically every sector that has to do with the state.

If that’s not fixed, irrespective of whether the currency of Greece is the euro, the drachma or the rupiah, there can be no end to Greece’s plight. Is Tsipras likely to fix that? I’ll give you a hint: most Greek oligarchs voiced their support for Tsipras ahead of the general election in January. Before him, they of course supported his predecessor.

Crosswind · 07-07-2015 04:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Numbers of instances, but definitely not the value

From the article posted earlier
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/one-heretic-and-not-so-simple-view-greek-referendum

He specifically mentioned that evasion is going up. I'm looking for the source of that statement.
Already know the rest, although NYT apparently don't. Owners of the refineries (Vardinogiannis family) are the owners of one of the major Greek TV channels (MEGA channel) who oppose syriza for years.

07-07-2015 04:40PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Nonsense. Greece wouldn't have received previous bailout tranches if it hadn't been meeting the terms of its crisis programme. As recently as April 2014, the European Commission announced in its Fourth Review of the Greek programme that Greece was eligible for the disbursement...

"On the basis of this analysis of compliance with the MoU, and conditional on continued implementation by the Greek authorities of the revised MoU, notably of the prior actions, the programme is now broadly on track and the Commission services recommend disbursement of the instalments"

Greece has been getting bailout funds for five years because it has been compliant.

During this time, its public debt as a percentage of GDP has risen.

The same goes for every bailout country in the Eurozone.

Every bailout country in the eurozone.

All of which followed troika orders.

Synode · 07-07-2015 04:50PM

What's your point? Of course they took on more debt. They had to finance their budget overspends

07-07-2015 04:54PM

Their GDP has also fallen. So any ratio to GDP comparison needs to take that into account.

Was Greece's 2008 nominal GDP figure an accurate reflection of the capacity of Greece? Was 2014s?

07-07-2015 04:54PM

Synode wrote: »

What's your point? Of course they took on more debt. They had to finance their budget overspends

My point is that austerity policies tend to increase the real burden of debt, not reduce it. The troika used to believe that austerity policies decrease the debt burden, although they now seem more divided on that.

So who should pay for their mistake? The party that followed the programmes, or the party that instituted the programmes?

Greece Debt Crisis - Après Oxi

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