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What effect will 30% oil price fall have on Europe's GDP

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  • #32
    lucky john
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Good money to be made if you can figure out ,what and where next.

    Just too early yet to try anything. Obama is going to stick the boot in Russia some more but at some stage this will have to end. International politics is a dirty game but yesterday's enemy could be tomorrow's NBF. Just so long as putin doesn't do something mad this situation could suddenly defuse itself. The Russian stock market could go from one of the worst preforming in 2014 to the best in 2015. Way to soon yet, more pain for Russian first, but in a couple of months though maybe....


  • #33
    Kristopherus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,906 ✭✭✭✭Kristopherus


    I don't think too many tears would be shed globally if Putin trotted off to oblivion. Then there might be some investment opportunities in the rebuilding of Russia.


  • #34
    lucky john
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Kristopherus wrote: »
    I don't think too many tears would be shed globally if Putin trotted off to oblivion. Then there might be some investment opportunities in the rebuilding of Russia.

    His popularity is at an all time high. In Russia he is playing the us against then thing exceptionally well. Obama, Kenny, Draghi, Cameron ect will be long gone before him I suspect.


  • #35
    conditioned games
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 683 ✭✭✭conditioned games


    How long do ye think oil prices will stay at these low levels and is it good news for the unstable world economy we have today.

    I think the longer oil remains under 80dollars a barrell the greater the chance stock markets will crash in 2015 instead of 2016. Prior to the stock market crash in 2008 it was junk bonds that crashed first. Main reason for that was the fall in oil prices similar to now. 20% of junk bond market is made up of energy companies. These have poor credit ratings paying higher interest rates. We are begining to see these companies struggling to sell new bonds and their interest rates are increasing especially highly indebted companies in the fracking industry.

    A investor named Josh Birnbaum made a huge bet against the subprime mortgages when he was with goldman sachs in 2007. He has recently made a $2billion bet against junk bonds and i think it will come off for him. Every time junk bonds collaspe it has been quickly followed by stock markets.


  • #36
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    conditioned games wrote: »
    How long do ye think oil prices will stay at these low levels and is it good news for the unstable world economy we have today.

    I think the longer oil remains under 80dollars a barrell the greater the chance stock markets will crash in 2015 instead of 2016. Prior to the stock market crash in 2008 it was junk bonds that crashed first. Main reason for that was the fall in oil prices similar to now. 20% of junk bond market is made up of energy companies. These have poor credit ratings paying higher interest rates. We are begining to see these companies struggling to sell new bonds and their interest rates are increasing especially highly indebted companies in the fracking industry.

    A investor named Josh Birnbaum made a huge bet against the subprime mortgages when he was with goldman sachs in 2007. He has recently made a $2billion bet against junk bonds and i think it will come off for him. Every time junk bonds collaspe it has been quickly followed by stock markets.

    The stock market is in a state of none recovery for the last 7yrs,and further collapse is doubtful IMO.
    Hugh change happening and it seems to be a political squeeze ,on credit drunk nations (similar to Europe 07),Russians have backed property in London, and IMO I see capitol heading to newly tested banks ,only growth area left, only way is up, and with rates so low, any investment boom has plenty of scope for the ECB to suppress/control !!

    As for oil, USA and Europe have done almost everything in there power over the last 7 years to reduce consumption and increase production/storage, what we are seeing now is the result of a well taught out strategy, and will take a few years to play out.

    But how this plays out ,will only be clear in the rear view mirror.(or guessed right through a frozen windscreen)


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  • #37
    braddun
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,221 ✭✭✭braddun


    taxes in Ireland will kill off most savings


  • #38
    1st dalkey dalkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭1st dalkey dalkey


    Slowing world growth (demand) and increasing world supply (mainly from North American non conventional sources), is the problem here. That and a struggle over market share.
    Traditionally where there was an oversupply, OPEC would reduce production to bring balance back into pricing. That invariably led, in the past, to a loss of market share for the Saudi's, who were the only one's to actually do what they promised.
    The Saudi's have now decided that enough is enough. They will not cut production. It is someone else's turn to get shafted. But no-one is volunteering.
    The situation is complicated by the system of hedging. This in effect means that the current price takes some months before it effects producers. It will be early next year before any major implications are seen.
    Except, of course, for politics.
    I don't think that politics brought us here, but it will certainly make use of the current situation. Therein lies the real danger.
    Oil will eventually rise again. It is till a depleting resource and new plays are getting more and more expensive to exploit. But will politics have totally changed the environment by then?


  • #39
    For ever odd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 608 ✭✭✭For ever odd


    If we get the extra cold winter that's been touted, (the beast from the east) it could turn everything on its head.
    Keep an eye on the weather.


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