Shane Lowry - 2019 Champion Golfer of The Year (note first post please for posting guidance)

she better get a wriggle on before he does a Rory....

Consciously uncouples and goes ballistic on the course for a few months...

The Australian Open results won't affect Lowry, the nearest player below him who had the potential to leap-frog him with a good finish was John Senden (OWGR 50) who came T23 in Sydney so won't make much of a move in the rankings.

abff wrote: »

Victor Dubuisson has withdrawn from the Nedbank and replaced by Brendon Todd, who is currently 52nd in the world rankings. This gives Todd a chance of moving into the top 50 by year end.

Todd is 51st this morning. He'll be making a run for the top 50 without doubt.

Warning: Boring technical analysis of the world ranking value of the Nedbank Challenge.

I see that the OWGR is showing the Nedbank as having a SOF value of 196 and 38 world ranking points to the winner. As the world rating value of the field is 186, this means that they are only applying a tour rating value of 10. However, if we calculate the tour rating value by reference to the 2014 Race to Dubai, we get a total of 40, which would bring the overall SOF to 226 and would increase the world ranking points for the winner from 38 to 42. I presume the reason for the lower rating is that the OWGR view the Sunshine Tour as the primary tour for purposes of calculating the tour rating value.

In a way, this is good news for Shane Lowry as it makes it slightly less likely that those close behind him in the world rankings will earn enough points to move ahead of him. I'm looking at what various players would need to do to move past Shane in the year end world rankings and I'll post my conclusions in a separate post (as I think there are already too many figures in this one).

OK, I've completed my analysis and I've concluded that it would require an extraordinary set of results for Shane not to finish in the top 50 in the year end world rankings.

To start with, he is projected to move ahead of Gary Woodland and Marc Leishman in the year end rankings, which would bring him up to 45th. As far as I know, there are no more counting events after this week other than in Japan and Australia, plus the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa. Assuming Woodland and Leishman are not playing in any of these events and ignoring (for the moment) the Alfred Dunhill Championship, there are 10 players who could potentially finish ahead of Shane in the year end World rankings, assuming he finishes in 30th place in the Nedbank. Even if he is unable to play for some reason or is disqualified, the number remains at 10.

Of these, John Senden is likely to be playing in Australia and Koumei Oda in Japan. In order to finish ahead of Lowry (assuming he finishes last in the Nedbank), Senden would need to pick up 9.25 world ranking points and Oda would need to pick up 14.93 world ranking points.

The other 8 players are in the Nedbank and the result they would need to move ahead of Shane (assuming he finishes last and assuming this is their last tournament of the year) are as follows:

Current Ranking Name Finish Required
51 Brendon Todd 3
53 Alexander Levy 4
55 Louis Oosthuizen 3
59 Jonas Blixt 2
60 Tommy Fleetwood 2
61 Tim Clark 1
63 Marcel Siem 1
69 Pablo Larrazabal 1

It can be seen from the above that a freak combination of results could result in 4 of the above 8 players finishing ahead of Shane in the year end world rankings. If both Senden and Oda were also to move ahead of him, this would move Shane down to 51st.

For this to happen, Larrazabal, Siem or Clark would have to win the tournament, with either Fleetwood or Blixt finishing second (on their own), Oosthuizen or Todd 3rd (again on their own) and Levy 4th (also on his own). A pretty unlikely result, so I think Shane can start planning to visit Augusta next spring.

For completeness, I guess there's a good chance that both Oosthuizen and Clark (and possibly some of the other players, if they find themselves on the cusp of the top 50) might play in next week's Alfred Dunhill Championship and this would slightly alter the above requirements, but I still think Shane's pretty safe for being in the top 50 at year end.

abff wrote: »

Rather than edit the above note, it occurs to me that some other combinations are possible that would allow 4 of the 8 players to move ahead of Shane (for example, Fleetwood first and Blixt second), but the basic message remains the same - it's pretty unlikely.

Don't know how you figure it all out, but your analysis is much appreciated! Hopefully Shane will take matters into his own hands and do well this week.

Rikand wrote: »

this.

Out of curiousity, if Shane won this week, how high up the rankings would he go ?

DON'T jinx his week, please!

abff wrote: »

Potentially, he could go as high as 27th with a win, depending on where Keegan Bradley and Steve Stricker finish in the Hero World Challenge.

Of course, it would also depend on where the people above him in the world rankings who are competing in the Nedbank finish.

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Shane is out with "The Mechanic" again tomorrow and Tim Clark.
First group off at 8.10 a.m Irish time.

Full draw here

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2014095/teetimes/index.html

Panrich wrote: »

That's a very weak line-up overall. Not much to be afraid of there.

The world rankings of the players are as follows:

Martin Kaymer 13
Jamie Donaldson 23
Kevin Na 27
Joost Luiten 28
Charl Schwartzel 30
Thomas Bjørn 33
Brooks Koepka 35
Stephen Gallacher 36
Luke Donald 37
Miguel Angel Jiminez 41
Lee Westwood 42
Thongchai Jaidee 43
Mikko Ilonen 44
Shane Lowry 47
Brendon Todd 51
Alexander Lévy 53
Louis Oosthuizen 55
Jonas Blixt 59
Tommy Fleetwood 60
Tim Clark 61
Marcel Siem 63
Marc Warren 67
Pablo Larrazabal 69
George Coetzee 79
Danny Willett 84
Ross Fisher 88
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 146
Danie van Tonder 195
Jaco Ahlers 227
Dawie van der Walt 299

Not exactly star-studded (particularly for a 'wheelbarrow' event) with only one of the top 20 in the world rankings, but hardly what you would call weak.

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Tiger's event is obviously a bigger pull for those knocking around the top 20 in OWGR, fairly decent field really outside of that.

I think geography also has a lot to do with it. 13 of the 18 players in the field are Americans and Graeme McDowell lives in Florida (as far as I know) and I think Justin Rose also has a home in the States. Not sure about where Stenson, Day and Matsuyama live.

Is there much disparity in prize money between the two events?

abff wrote: »

I think geography also has a lot to do with it. 13 of the 18 players in the field are Americans and Graeme McDowell lives in Florida (as far as I know) and I think Justin Rose also has a home in the States. Not sure about where Stenson, Day and Matsuyama live.

Is there much disparity in prize money between the two events?

Sun City much bigger.

First Up wrote: »

Sun City much bigger.

Just shows how much money the top players have that they can choose convenience over a much larger prize fund. Mind you, when you allow for the larger field in the Nedbank, the disparity in average prize money is only just over 10% ($216,667 in the Nedbank versus $194,444 in the Hero World Challenge). There's also more world ranking points available at the Hero WC.