The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

hotwhiskey · 10-11-2014 02:03PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

Aa here by the end of the month people will be posting that's it winter's over, Take the UK long range forecast with a pinch of salt. Its been so far wrong some years if I remember last year it was going to be axed as the media give them such a hard time.

Look the data this year whats happening around the pole is encouraging. I for one would like to see any cold spell for late December into January. As a young mind on a old body I have gone through many a bad winter 2010 was epic as was 63 I think for cold wise. But 82' for me was the worst just the hardship to get anywhere with the depth of snow and drifting.

pauldry · 10-11-2014 02:14PM

think this Winter will be the one that brought everything!

I think there will be some very wet and windy episodes

There will also be some drier periods

There will be cold spells also and they will most likely bring snow, however I dont think long term freezes are likely ..... yet, maybe as Winter goes on.

November looks quite mobile with the jet stream pushing to our South at times but the High hasnt established itself as a blocking high yet so thats the reason I think a long term cold spell is unlikely

KingdomRushed · 10-11-2014 02:15PM

I'm relatively optimistic that there is a good chance of cold and maybe snow this winter. I haven't seen anything yet that hasn't been encouraging. In terms of the model output may I suggest looking at the hemispheric profile rather than just Europe. There is a very disturbed looking polar vortex on show at the moment. This suggests to me that there will be very many a twist and turn in the coming weeks. Even the tame easterly that is being progged in a few days time. Won't deliver at this time of year, for cold and snow, but as a taster of what may be down the line, well, oooof, bring it on my son.

mark26ireland · 10-11-2014 05:17PM

YouTookMyName wrote:

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

same crack as last year. we were supposed to be covered in snow and all this crap! we get heavy snow once every ten or so years. it was a fluke a few years back where we got it twice in a row

red_bairn · 10-11-2014 06:49PM

Darwin wrote:

Also the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index are released today which should make for interesting reading too.

At what time?

Loughc · 10-11-2014 07:10PM

mark26ireland wrote: »

same crack as last year. we were supposed to be covered in snow and all this crap! we get heavy snow once every ten or so years. it was a fluke a few years back where we got it twice in a row

Crushing blow to hear but very true.

fits · 10-11-2014 07:16PM

snaps wrote: »

Scandinavia though is having a complete contrast from last year as its been very cold and snowy (Especially in the north and east) since mid October.

My friends in Lapland didn't see snow last year until January. This year they've had laying snow since 2nd week October.

There was snow last October, November it just melted again. Last winter was horrible. I don't like snow, but it reflects light and makes the short days bearable. Also NO SKIING. Blech, I hope its not like that again this winter or I will go stir crazy.

This winter saw first snowfall on september 23rd when trees were still in full leaf. that was weird. There have been three or four snowfalls but mild in between. its 5 degrees here today. (Finland- 400 km north east of helsinki)

Metmaster · 10-11-2014 08:09PM

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

HighLine · 10-11-2014 08:11PM

Metmaster wrote: »

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

Any feelings about the lotto numbers come February?

snowstorm445 · 10-11-2014 08:12PM

Metmaster wrote: »

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

That's quite a bold prediction to make considering its not even the middle of November.

amdgilmore · 10-11-2014 08:27PM

Predicting that we won't get something that we almost never get is not what I would call a bold prediction.

The odds are always stacked in favour of little or no snow in this country (leaving aside areas of high elevation).

space2ground1 · 10-11-2014 09:16PM

I remember thinking last year that we really should be loading the predictions with a weighting based on the liklihood of severe conditions actually happening. It goes against the pure science but I think if the statistics suggest theres an X% chance of a weather event based on historical data, such as this happening once in 30/40/50 years, then its unlikely to happen again so soon.

Video · 10-11-2014 09:56PM

i still have that feeling.. and when i get a feeling... im like the groundhog from groundhog day, the snow will come this year.

Peter125 · 10-11-2014 09:56PM

So it's going to be bad

HighLine · 10-11-2014 10:01PM

amdgilmore wrote: »

Predicting that we won't get something that we almost never get is not what I would call a bold prediction.

The odds are always stacked in favour of little or no snow in this country (leaving aside areas of high elevation).

Just with regard to the higher elevations - speaking as someone who hikes in the Wicklow/Dublin mountains frequently - last year was the worst year in the 15 years I have been going up there in terms of little amounts of snow.

At no stage were the Sally/Wicklow Gaps closed due to snow and that is normally a given at some stage during a winter. So I am very much hoping that last year was statistically rare and it will be business as usual this coming season.

10-11-2014 10:09PM

HighLine wrote: »

Just with regard to the higher elevations - speaking as someone who hikes in the Wicklow/Dublin mountains frequently - last year was the worst year in the 15 years I have been going up there in terms of little amounts of snow.

At no stage were the Sally/Wicklow Gaps closed due to snow and that is normally a given at some stage during a winter. So I am very much hoping that last year was statistically rare and it will be business as usual this coming season.

There was one weekend the Sally Gap was "treacherous". There was a good bit of snow up there at that stage - I know because I had my bike up there (and up Kippure).

Looking forward to some early snow on the hills.

Red Pepper · 10-11-2014 10:10PM

I have a strong feeling in my bones that this winter will be an icy/snowy one. It's hard to explain but I believe it to be true. I love the outdoors and I love winter hill walking so I am very excited.
I don't know much about weather models so let me explain my recent confidence....Large areas of my lawn suffered during the dry summer and I have taken it on myself to restore it. The grass is yellowish and sparse in these areas. So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky. I don't know what it is exactly but something about the clouds and the stars and the general feel from the air leads me to believe that a cold winter is in store. I will also have the darkest greenest lushest grass next year. Here's hoping!

wexie · 10-11-2014 10:19PM

Red Pepper wrote: »

So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky.

Peter125 · 10-11-2014 10:23PM

Only time will tell,but for now we have lots of rain coming tomorrow

Lucreto · 10-11-2014 10:36PM

I don't know if this has been posted yet.

http://app.til.it/opi/

HighLine · 10-11-2014 10:39PM

Dónal wrote: »

There was one weekend the Sally Gap was "treacherous". There was a good bit of snow up there at that stage - I know because I had my bike up there (and up Kippure).

Looking forward to some early snow on the hills.

But neither gaps were ever closed last year. The following pic (19th Dec '13) would probably be classed as "treacherous" to the masses but compared to the usual up there, it was nothing and the roads were passable once you know how to drive.

Where as this is more along the lines of what I usually see

(Jan '10)

amdgilmore · 10-11-2014 10:49PM

Wow. Can't believe that's in Ireland.

maquiladora · 10-11-2014 10:55PM

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know if this has been posted yet.

http://app.til.it/opi/

Well, if they are right it could be a sensational winter for the folks here on the weather forum who like cold and snow. That Greenland height anomaly...heh.

We'll see!

hatrickpatrick · 10-11-2014 11:55PM

Why has everyone suddenly gone from unbelievable ramping to unbelievable pessimism in the last 2 days or so? A couple of downgrades (recovering PV) well before the end of November and miles out in FI are not a cause for panic, people!

Am I missing something?

Iancar29 · 11-11-2014 08:23AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why has everyone suddenly gone from unbelievable ramping to unbelievable pessimism in the last 2 days or so? A couple of downgrades (recovering PV) well before the end of November and miles out in FI are not a cause for panic, people!

Am I missing something?

All the ramping is for the FI thread only at this stage im afraid :P

But im certainly not being pessimistic , just being patient

mrbrianj · 11-11-2014 08:54AM

Red Pepper wrote: »

I have a strong feeling in my bones that this winter will be an icy/snowy one. It's hard to explain but I believe it to be true. I love the outdoors and I love winter hill walking so I am very excited.
I don't know much about weather models so let me explain my recent confidence....Large areas of my lawn suffered during the dry summer and I have taken it on myself to restore it. The grass is yellowish and sparse in these areas. So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky. I don't know what it is exactly but something about the clouds and the stars and the general feel from the air leads me to believe that a cold winter is in store. I will also have the darkest greenest lushest grass next year. Here's hoping!

This is quite possibly the best post I have ever read on boards!

Forget Keith Barry, The Donegal Postman and the Kiwi - this guy is plugged in. (for grass greening logistics I hope its a guy!)

davidsr20 · 11-11-2014 08:59AM

What's the donegal postmans predictions this year?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-11-2014 09:06AM

davidsr20 wrote: »

What's the donegal postmans predictions this year?

That all cards must be posted by December 18th :pac:

icesnowfrost · 11-11-2014 10:09AM

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models seem to be pointing to a quiet almost slack pressure pattern for several days next week, which could promote some dense fog or lingering frost in a few places, but temperatures close to average if perhaps slightly on the colder side. One model then goes on to show colder air seeping in from the east near the end of the month.

That's from MT this morning. All eyes towards the end of the month

KingdomRushed · 11-11-2014 11:19AM

Cold plunge into north america, sparking big depressions in the Atlantic, a strengthening jet? Sound familiar? Well that's the latest GFS outputs. However, it is only November 11th so a long road ahead this winter.

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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