Ebola virus outbreak

smash · 15-10-2014 02:20PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

No as the virus doesn't seem to transmit via sweat. Now if the patient vomited, bled or smeared their poo on the door handle that would be a different matter.

If the patient put their fingers in their mouth or coughed in their hand and touched a door handle surely it would spread wouldn't it?

Peist2007 · 15-10-2014 02:23PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

No as the virus doesn't seem to transmit via sweat. Now if the patient vomited, bled or smeared their poo on the door handle that would be a different matter.

I dont think we can make any concrete assumptions on how this virus spreads. Seems to me that people wearing protective gear are getting infected. They are then immediately stated to have not been following protocols. I dont think the Spanish nurse would agree with that. I have a feeling we arent being told the full story re transmission.

Lucy and Harry · 15-10-2014 02:25PM

This thing could go air born and get worse those doomsday survivalists are not looking as weird nowadays.

wexie · 15-10-2014 02:28PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

No as the virus doesn't seem to transmit via sweat. Now if the patient vomited, bled or smeared their poo on the door handle that would be a different matter.

Or coughed or sneezed....

Ebola is transmitted by direct contact with body fluids of a person who has symptoms of Ebola disease. Although coughing and sneezing are not common symptoms of Ebola, if a symptomatic patient with Ebola coughs or sneezes on someone, and saliva or mucus come into contact with that person’s eyes, nose or mouth, these fluids may transmit the disease.

Ficheall · 15-10-2014 02:28PM

MadYaker wrote: »

It is destroyed by exposure to UV light (sunlight) so it doesn't really last outside the body for very long.

So does that mean it will spread easier in Ireland than in Africa?

I am pie · 15-10-2014 02:30PM

Lucy and Harry wrote: »

This thing could go air born and get worse those doomsday survivalists are not looking as weird nowadays.

ah hang on now, that's a fair leap to make.

I suppose the best hope is that now that there is money to be made from creating a vaccination the big pharma companies will find the motivation within their sainted hearts to do so.

Possibly a good argument for publically founded pharmaceutical development, not likely whilst there are countries to invade and money to spend on important stuff like cruise missiles and nuclear subs.

Canis Lupus · 15-10-2014 02:31PM

smash wrote: »

If the patient put their fingers in their mouth or coughed in their hand and touched a door handle surely it would spread wouldn't it?

It could, I'm not a doctor just going on what I read and from what I read the above scenarios are considered low risk.

I would have some comments to make though.

1: A person isn't infectious until they start showing symptoms and are quickly bedridden there after. Therefore whilst they are mobile they're not infectious and afterwards they won't be walking about much.

2: A person from the 1st world with confirmed Ebola or even suspected Ebola isn't likely to be allowed to wander about touching stuff like some kind of Ebola fairy and would generally be conscientious enough to not smear their bodily fluids around in the first place.

papu · 15-10-2014 02:32PM

Ficheall wrote: »

So does that mean it will spread easier in Ireland than in Africa?

Depends on the amount of UV needed , just because we don't have blaring sun doesn't mean we don't have UV light...

Canis Lupus · 15-10-2014 02:32PM

Lucy and Harry wrote: »

This thing could go air born and get worse those doomsday survivalists are not looking as weird nowadays.

That's so unlikely you can stop worrying about it now.

ProfessorPlum · 15-10-2014 02:36PM

Ficheall wrote: »

So does that mean it will spread easier in Ireland than in Africa?

Somehow I think the amount of UV light out there will be one of the lessor contributors to it's rate of spread.

So no, it doesn't mean it will spread easier in Ireland than Africa.

(of course we're heading into the winter with shorter daylight hours - if only it had struck during summer we would have had a distinct advantage over equatorial regions given their relatively short summer daylight time)

Lucy and Harry · 15-10-2014 02:36PM

The movie OUTBREAK with Dustin Hoffman had it go air born.Movies cant be wrong they research things

smash · 15-10-2014 02:37PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

That's so unlikely you can stop worrying about it now.

Still though, this is interesting:

Osterholm and other experts couldn't think of another virus that has made the transition from non-airborne to airborne in humans. They say the chances are relatively small that Ebola will make that jump. But as the virus spreads, they warned, the likelihood increases.

Every time a new person gets Ebola, the virus gets another chance to mutate and develop new capabilities. Osterholm calls it "genetic roulette."

Ebola is an RNA virus, which means every time it copies itself, it makes one or two mutations. Many of those mutations mean nothing, but some of them might be able to change the way the virus behaves inside the human body.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/12/health/ebola-airborne/

wexie · 15-10-2014 02:38PM

I am pie wrote: »

I suppose the best hope is that now that there is money to be made from creating a vaccination the big pharma companies will find the motivation within their sainted hearts to do so.
.

Yeah it's occurred to me that now that there's been white people killed by it all of a sudden the rush for a vaccine/cure is on where as before.......

While I appreciate how business works it makes me sad that medical research seems to be largely driven by profits rather than the betterment of humankind

ProfessorPlum · 15-10-2014 02:38PM

Lucy and Harry wrote: »

The movie OUTBREAK with Dustin Hoffman had it go air born.Movies cant be wrong they research things

Great!!! What did Dustin do to fix the problem? Lets get straight on to it!!

wexie · 15-10-2014 02:39PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

1: A person isn't infectious until they start showing symptoms and are quickly bedridden there after. Therefore whilst they are mobile they're not infectious and afterwards they won't be walking about much.

I didn't know that, it's a good piece of information to have, I knew that once symptoms strike patients aren't mobile pretty quickly but I thought they were infectious during incubation as well.

Canis Lupus · 15-10-2014 02:45PM

smash wrote: »

Still though, this is interesting:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/12/health/ebola-airborne/

You're right, it could I guess however as I and others have already stated in this threads millions of people have suffered and currently suffer with HIV for example and yet I'd be willing to bet you've never once worried about that becoming airborne.

I'm not trying to have a dig at you but I really do think Outbreak has a lot to blame for people completely forgetting all the other viruses we have in the world and somehow only focusing on Ebola as the one that could go 'airborne'.

Canis Lupus · 15-10-2014 02:51PM

Peist2007 wrote: »

I dont think we can make any concrete assumptions on how this virus spreads. Seems to me that people wearing protective gear are getting infected. They are then immediately stated to have not been following protocols. I dont think the Spanish nurse would agree with that. I have a feeling we arent being told the full story re transmission.

I would say it's potentially difficult to remember continually to not touch your face. I would hope if I was a nurse in those situations I'd.... handcuff my arms to my belt but touching your face is such an instinctive thing that you possibly don't even realise you've done it sometimes and it's total conjecture but I guess sometimes you can be blase about how much danger you're in.

And the bit I bolded? yeah..... no :rolleyes:

Creative Juices · 15-10-2014 02:51PM

This thread seems to bring up the airborne fear every 2 days when the fear addicts aren't getting enough fear from the newspapers. From what I understand, there is no possibility of this virus mutating into airborne transmission. Transmission mutations like that have never happened before to any virus.

Turtwig · 15-10-2014 02:53PM

The best evidence we have suggests that ebola isn't transmitted through sweat. It also suggests that people have to symptomatic. Naturally the highest risk of transmission is to the front line health workers treating them. Taking this into consideration so few of them are actually affected. Protective clothing requires the clothing material to be flawless and proper procedure to be followed. Not always going to happen. It's inevitable that you'll have a small number of health worker deaths. It's also inevitable that you'll have isolated incidents in other western countries though, possibly even Ireland. With regard to a western country epidemic the key thing to note is the numbers of everyday people e.g family members of ebola patients that get affected. So far it seems to be isolated to the original ebola patients and the health care workers that treated them. This suggests that ebola, as per all previous understanding of the virus, is not actually that contagious. Yes, people are going to die but it seems to be nowhere near as penetrative an illness as other infectious diseases.

Regarding potential for mutation. Ebola's most likely beneficial mutation is one that allows the virus to stay in the human body for longer. The longer the virus remains in circulation the more chance there is of this occurring. This would make containment, and possibly treatment, that bit harder and definitely render airport screening pointless. (Though that was pointless to begin with.) I've grave concerns for the plight of the disease in countries like Liberia, or were it to infect an impoverished area in New York, or India. In general though the only concern I have about this illness is the public's irrational perception of it. Ebola - the myth- is more damaging than the virus itself it seems. Don't get wrong the outbreak in Africa is very serious, health officials have been saying so for months, but the scare mongering and borderline racism that is occurring in some places is far far worse.

The fatality rate of 70% should always take into consideration the complete breakdown of health services in the regions affected. What also shouldn't be forgotten is the shambolic state of health care in those regions prior to the outbreak. Liberia, a country with a population similar to ours had less than 200 doctors. In contrast, we with our often perceived 'third world health care' have over 15,000.

smash · 15-10-2014 02:56PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

You're right, it could I guess however as I and others have already stated in this threads millions of people have suffered and currently suffer with HIV for example and yet I'd be willing to bet you've never once worried about that becoming airborne.

The rate at which is spreads is the issue. HIV is only contracted through the exchange of certain bodily fluids and doesn't cause the same kind of sickness as Ebola. It's a virus that causes a sickness which spreads, incubates and kills a lot faster than HIV.

Canis Lupus wrote: »

I'm not trying to have a dig at you but I really do think Outbreak has a lot to blame for people completely forgetting all the other viruses we have in the world and somehow only focusing on Ebola as the one that could go 'airborne'.

It's nothing to do with outbreak, there are scientists who are worried because it spreads so fast and every time it spreads it mutates.

Peist2007 · 15-10-2014 02:58PM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

I would say it's potentially difficult to remember continually to not touch your face. I would hope if I was a nurse in those situations I'd.... handcuff my arms to my belt but touching your face is such an instinctive thing that you possibly don't even realise you've done it sometimes and it's total conjecture but I guess sometimes you can be blase about how much danger you're in.

And the bit I bolded? yeah..... no :rolleyes:

You're pre-supposing what that nurse did and going entirely against what she said she did. Were you there with her?

Dont know why i got a roll eyes - seems to be perfectly reasonable that they are downplaying this. Telling joe soap sitting in his trackies on his couch that a nurse wearing protective gear still caught the disease would create panic. What chance do we have if she caught it etc. So i think the view that we are being told the entire truth on this could be viewed as naive in the near future. let's face it, they lie to us about most things, why not this?

Edit: and i am not suggesting it is airborne by the way. It does seem to be particularly virulent and more contagious than is being let on.

Crane · 15-10-2014 02:58PM

Does anyone have any idea where we might read an intelligent and measured forum discussion of this outbreak? On boards.ie or elsewhere? Every few days (as stated above) the airborne, doomsday etc scenarios get rebooted in this thread, perhaps by people just opportunistically clicking on the thread rather than following it properly. Makes for a pretty frustrating read - neither 'side' (pessimistic vs optimistic outcome of the outbreak) gets a proper airing as a result.

Creative Juices · 15-10-2014 02:58PM

When it comes to viruses, it is always difficult to predict what they can or cannot do. It is instructive, however, to see what viruses have done in the past, and use that information to guide our thinking. Therefore we can ask: has any human virus ever changed its mode of transmission?

The answer is no. We have been studying viruses for over 100 years, and we've never seen a human virus change the way it is transmitted.

HIV-1 has infected millions of humans since the early 1900s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by sex, contaminated needles, or during childbirth.

Hepatitis C virus has infected millions of humans since its discovery in the 1980s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by contaminated needles, blood, and during birth.

There is no reason to believe that Ebola virus is any different from any of the viruses that infect humans and have not changed the way that they are spread.

I am fully aware that we can never rule out what a virus might or might not do. But the likelihood that Ebola virus will go airborne is so remote that we should not use it to frighten people. We need to focus on stopping the epidemic, which in itself is a huge job.

Akrasia · 15-10-2014 03:00PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Great!!! What did Dustin do to fix the problem? Lets get straight on to it!!

He had a silly helicopter chase scene, we should have one of those.

Creative Juices · 15-10-2014 03:01PM

Crane wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea where we might read an intelligent and measured forum discussion of this outbreak? On boards.ie or elsewhere? Every few days (as stated above) the airborne, doomsday etc scenarios get rebooted in this thread, perhaps by people just opportunistically clicking on the thread rather than following it properly. Makes for a pretty frustrating read - neither 'side' (pessimistic vs optimistic outcome of the outbreak) gets a proper airing as a result.

I agree. I am surprised there isn't another ebola thread somewhere for people that are more "clued in". This is After Hours. I remember when the Malaysian Airlines flight disappeared, there were 2 threads - 1 in AH and 1 in Aviation. The latter was full of informed debate, the former was full of nutjobs.

Peist2007 · 15-10-2014 03:03PM

Creative Juices wrote: »

I agree. I am surprised there isn't another ebola thread somewhere for people that all just agree with me and my point of view. This is After Hours. I remember when the Malaysian Airlines flight disappeared, there were 2 threads - 1 in AH and 1 in Aviation. The latter was full of people who agreed with me, the former was full of nutjobs.

FYP

WakeUp · 15-10-2014 03:04PM

if the world wants to contain this we need to start listening to people with experience on the ground of what we are dealing with and know what they are talking about.

_______________________________________________________

Imagine Tomislav Prvulovic’s quandry. He has spent a lifetime fighting Ebola and other infectious diseases, and what he sees out of Africa has him frustrated.

"He cannot sleep at night," said his wife, Zivka. When her husband, an infectious-disease expert who fought the virus in Central Africa in the late 1980s, watches the news about this latest outbreak, he gets so upset he nearly cries, she said.

He has specific suggestions on ways the authorities can help contain the deadly virus.

"Don’t consider it someone else’s headache. We’re just one flight away from the epicenter of Ebola," he reminds anyone who will listen.

Prvulovic was part of the international team that eradicated small pox decades ago, and worked in 50 countries over a long career that included fighting the plague as well. He was trained as a doctor in his native Serbia, then earned a master’s in public health in the United States.

He worries that the precautions only now being imposed are too little, too late. Given his firsthand view of lethal infectious diseases, here’s what he’d like to shout from the rooftop of his West Orange townhouse:

• African authorities should cordon off any hospital treating an Ebola victim, using police or the military if necessary. No relatives allowed in to visit, no health workers allowed out. Any item that goes out of the hospital — clothes, equipment, garbage — needs to be burned. Bodies of the deceased should be cremated if possible.

• International flights into and out of the affected countries should be banned for all but emergency travel. Forget tourism; now is not the time.

Global health agencies should hire African doctors from Somalia and the former Zaire — who have experience with Ebola — and deploy them in the West African countries which have never seen the deadly virus before.

He said he knows what happens when poor villagers get felled by the disease. Their relatives wash the body, as custom dictates, then may bury it in a shallow grave. Sooner or later stray dogs dig up the bloody corpse, making for an ideal way to spread the epidemic. He said he saw it all when he was stationed in Brazzaville, in the Republic of the Congo.

"I’m depressed that nobody is doing it right," he said of the efforts now underway in the global crisis. "
http://www.nj.com/healthfit/index.ssf/2014/08/nj_ebola_expert_recalls_earlier_outbreak_alarmed_about_current_spread.html

that seems like common sense to me.

Maximus Alexander · 15-10-2014 03:17PM

realweirdo wrote: »

Ebola makes HIV look benign in comparison.

Only in terms of the horrific sounding symptoms. HIV has a higher reproductive rate as I have pointed out already and was a death sentence in the west when it first emerged. Indeed it still is in much of Africa.

Ebola sucks, but some people are getting carried away with it - it's not Captain Trips.

ceadaoin. · 15-10-2014 03:17PM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

Can you catch HIV from touching a surface and then touching your face? Or from being within 3 feet of a person with HIV? No, ebola is a lot easier to catch than HIV.

From http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/us/questions-rise-on-preparations-at-hospitals-to-deal-with-ebola.html?referrer=

At the peak of illness, an Ebola patient can have 10 billion viral particles in one-fifth of a teaspoon of blood. That compares with 50,000 to 100,000 particles in an untreated H.I.V. patient, and five million to 20 million in someone with untreated hepatitis C.

“That helped us to understand why, if this is only spread by body fluids, why it is more contagious than hepatitis A, B and C, and H.I.V.,” Dr. Ribner said. “It’s just that there’s so much more virus in the fluids they put out.”

Canis Lupus · 15-10-2014 03:32PM

Peist2007 wrote: »

You're pre-supposing what that nurse did and going entirely against what she said she did. Were you there with her?

That's why I used words like potentially and conjecture. There was a failure in equipment or protocol somewhere along the line either way.

Dont know why i got a roll eyes

Because I've no time to listen to how 'the man' is lying to us. That's what the CT forum is for.

Ebola virus outbreak

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