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Ebola virus outbreak

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Comments

  • #1232
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Meglamonia wrote: »
    What are the chances of it mutating and becoming airborne?

    About the same as aids doing so. Possible, but an asteroid hitting your home is also possible.


  • #1233
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,022 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The fact is, it doesn't really matter what the R0 is, it could be 2 or 10, either way the epidemic will keep spreading unless it drops below 1. If the worse case projections are accurate, there will 1.4 million infections by January. If each of those is infecting 2 people on average then that's a huge number of infections and we will start seeing more and more cases outside Africa. If it does get to that stage then I really don't know what else can be done besides closing borders.


  • #1234
    Adamantium
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭Adamantium


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Obama has just releases a statement

    Good morning.

    In less than an hour,

    aircraft from here will join others from around the world.

    And you will be launching the largest aerial battle on Sierra Leone in the history of mankind.

    Mankind. That word should have new meaning for all of us today.

    We can't be consumed by our petty differences any more.

    We will be united in our common interest. To wipe out Ebola.
    We must act now to prevent further spread of the virus

    Perhaps it's fate that today is the 9th Oct

    And you will once again be fighting for our freedom.

    Not from tyranny, oppression or persecution.

    But from annihilation by a virus that turns the insides of its host into jelly.

    We're fighting for our right to live.

    To exist.

    And should we win the day,

    the 9th of Oct will no longer be known as just another day

    but as the day when the world declared in one voice,

    "We will not go quietly into the night!"

    "We will not vanish without a fight!"

    "We're going to live on!"

    "We're going to survive!"

    Today, we celebrate our Independence Day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmhGrJJjI7E


  • #1235
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Oh for Christ sake God help the internet if we ever face an actual pandemic. Least it's not the Armageddon president speech. Team of hot shot saw mill workers sent in to the save the world of Ebola by cutting their way through extreme jungles to plant a nuke in the virus's hot zone.


  • #1236
    masonchat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 673 ✭✭✭masonchat


    What is the right thing to do in a situation like this?

    If stopping travel into/out of africa is a consideration in the future, then surely it should have been one of the first things done? it would seem a bit like closing the gate after the horse is bolted now.

    Morally i understand people wanting to go there and help BUT did they help or just facilitate worldwide cases , which may turn out to be not so bad but could end up very bad.

    We are just lucky so far that it seems not to be passed too easily


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  • #1237
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    Meglamonia wrote: »
    What are the chances of it mutating and becoming airborne?

    0<P<1

    If n ==140,000 http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=92550777&postcount=1244

    Then there is a serious probability that this is going to go sideways at some point in time.

    I'd be of the opinion that "Big Pharma" fast-tracking vaccines will probably make the situation worse, as opposed to better, especially in terms of mutations and generations of the virus.

    It's not zombie apocalypse time yet, but the situation on the ground in Western Africa needs to be secured and there definitely needs to be some staged planning for air travel to reduce the probability of the outbreak re-starting in fresh populaces.

    In the meantime, I'd expect the Western media to continue to use it as a convenient distraction from the usual human rights abuses, corporate thievery and political skullduggery as they are led by the nose.

    Keep calm, Carry on, and wash your hands for everyone outside of West Africa, and if your that way inclined, pray for those inside it. They need all the help they can get.


  • #1238
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,022 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    ProfessorPlum wrote: »
    Ohh hold on there - major shifting of goal posts!

    You said that R number was useless when talking about how contagious a disease was, and despite it's R number of 2, that Ebola was a highly contagious disease. Which it's not.
    Now you're bringing in mortality, which has nothing what so ever to do with contagiousness. Nothing.
    And assessing risk - nope, you hadn't mentioned that either.

    Nobody is saying Ebola isn't a highly dangerous disease - that just wasn't your argument in the first place.


    Is there not a slight difference between contagious and infectious? Ebola isn't very contagious because it's not airborne. However, it is very infectious because it only takes a small amount of virus to enter your body to make you sick. So once you do come into contact with infected material it's easier to become infected than with other viruses.


  • #1239
    nokia69
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,895 ✭✭✭nokia69


    Meglamonia wrote: »
    What are the chances of it mutating and becoming airborne?

    very little

    but the the virus is now changing/evolving faster than ever, so who knows what could happen

    if it changed and took longer to kill people that would be just as bad as becoming airborne

    this needs to be stopped as soon as possible


  • #1240
    sturdyhairy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8 ✭sturdyhairy


    You can only get Ebola from:
    Touching the blood or body fluids of a person who is sick with or has died from Ebola.
    Touching contaminated objects, like needles.
    Touching infected animals, their blood or other body fluids, or their meat.



    Be safe everyone!


  • #1241
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    nokia69 wrote: »
    very little

    but the the virus is now changing/evolving faster than ever, so who knows what could happen

    if it changed and took longer to kill people that would be just as bad as becoming airborne

    this needs to be stopped as soon as possible

    Exactly, but some on here would have you think that this is not possible, ignorant.


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  • #1242
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,518 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    sturdyhairy wrote: »
    You can only get Ebola from:
    Touching the blood or body fluids of a person who is sick with or has died from Ebola.
    Touching contaminated objects, like needles.
    Touching infected animals, their blood or other body fluids, or their meat.



    Be safe everyone!

    Which is fine, but imagine a single mother in the US Living in high rise working in a hospital.
    She gets infected because the hospital dealt with someone infected and sent him home.
    She infects her kids who go to school sick, she infects her neighbours, quickly you have a hotbed of Ebola in a poor area where people can't afford medical treatment. Sick, contagious people stay in the community too long and you get an outbreak.


  • #1243
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,947 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Which is fine, but imagine a single mother in the US Living in high rise working in a hospital.
    She gets infected because the hospital dealt with someone infected and sent him home.
    She infects her kids who go to school sick, she infects her neighbours, quickly you have a hotbed of Ebola in a poor area where people can't afford medical treatment. Sick, contagious people stay in the community too long and you get an outbreak.

    How is all this passing on done though? Is it easily done?

    How does a sick child pass it to his school mates. Where is the bodily fluid contact? How much contact is needed and what amount of fluids must pass from one person to another? Is it guaranteed 100% of the time if you pass fluid to someone else that they will get Ebola from you, or is it hit and miss?


  • #1244
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,518 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    NIMAN wrote: »
    How is all this passing on done though? Is it easily done?

    How does a sick child pass it to his school mates. Where is the bodily fluid contact? How much contact is needed and what amount of fluids must pass from one person to another? Is it guaranteed 100% of the time if you pass fluid to someone else that they will get Ebola from you, or is it hit and miss?

    Have you ever been near a sick young child?
    There are fluids everywhere.

    If one infected person can typically infect 4, it doesn't take much to get an outbreak.
    It's not like your eyes start bleeding immediately, it starts out like a flu, people carry on with normal life with the flu. Sneezing in lifts fit example. The sick child's teacher will likely come info contracts with fluids abd help to pass it to other kids in the class. Then it reaches other classes.


  • #1245
    Streetwalker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,906 ✭✭✭Streetwalker


    When it reaches Ireland I think closing down the schools until it has cleared will have to be a priority. Classrooms are one of the easiest places for a virus to spread.


  • #1246
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,485 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    So the HSE have decided to not do any screening AT ALL at Irish airports cus apparently it's more effective to do it when someone's leaving a country the Virus is present in.....

    http://www.thejournal.ie/ebola-ireland-guidelines-1716135-Oct2014/

    What the actual ****? I get that it's hard to spot but this is ****ing ridiculous, it's already spread to countries outside of Africa due to extremely lax exit protocols in the countries it's present in, what the **** are the HSE smoking?


  • #1247
    AudreyHepburn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,673 ✭✭✭AudreyHepburn


    FionnK86 wrote: »
    Africa is not just Liberia, and western states. Are you seriously suggesting closing the borders South Africa, Kenya, Egypt and Morocco to Europe/US/Asia?? That's like closing Ireland's borders for the outbreak in Spain!! Get over the idea that Africa is one big country. :mad:

    Dear god, are you reading what I said at all?

    I know Africa is a continent I'm not stupid. I just think the only real way to contain the Ebola and stop it going global is to close off borders with affected countries and if that means most countries in Africa, some in Europe and US then so be it.

    I'd rather limit travel then see this become a global pandemic.


  • #1248
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    Turtwig wrote: »
    About the same as aids doing so. Possible, but an asteroid hitting your home is also possible.

    There is way more of a chance of your house getting hit by an asteroid.

    For ebola to become airborne, it would need a double mutation. First it would need to move from being a virus of the blood to being a virus of the respiratory system. It then would have to mutate again to become airborne. There’s is no precedent for any virus to change its basic mode of transmission so radically.


  • #1249
    royalflush2003
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 189 ✭✭royalflush2003


    Batten down the hatches it's spreading with air travel - think about it if you lived within that area , you would do anything to get out , this is going to get a hell of lot worse , it's rampant and getting worse , don't be fooled by mainstream media , behind the scenes it's a full scale panic but through the mainstream media they don't want panic -
    People need to wake up !!
    I hope I'm wrong .............


  • #1250
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    masonchat wrote: »
    What is the right thing to do in a situation like this?

    The right thing to do is this;

    (1) Send aid and especially medical supplies to West Africa. Lots of it. They treatment centres keep running out of the basics.
    (2) Send more experienced health workers and experts to West Africa.
    (3) Stop the panic and fear in the rest of the world by repeating the facts over and over again. The amount of BS on the media and social media is truly outstanding. 99%+ of ebola victims will be in West Africa.
    (4) I expect the first vaccines to be in mass production in 1-3 months. Vaccines should be made available free to all affected countries.
    (5) Buy GSK shares


  • #1251
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    JONJO THE MISER wrote: »
    Exactly, but some on here would have you think that this is not possible, ignorant.

    It is not possible for ebola to become airborne. It's the same possibility as ebola becoming a bird. It wouldn't really be ebola then, would it. :D


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  • #1252
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    nokia69 wrote: »
    but the the virus is now changing/evolving faster than ever, so who knows what could happen

    if it changed and took longer to kill people that would be just as bad as becoming airborne

    this needs to be stopped as soon as possible

    what are you on about?

    We have been studying viruses for over 100 years, and we've never seen a human virus change the way it is transmitted.

    HIV has infected millions of humans since the early 1990s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by sex, contaminated needles, or during childbirth.

    Hepatitis C virus has infected millions of humans since its discovery in the 1980s. It is still transmitted among humans by introduction of the virus into the body by contaminated needles, blood, and during birth.

    Why would ebola be special??? Because there is a thread in AH?


  • #1253
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,038 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    I don't know what scares me more the HSE getting involved or the virus itself


  • #1254
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    VinLieger wrote: »
    So the HSE have decided to not do any screening AT ALL at Irish airports cus apparently it's more effective to do it when someone's leaving a country the Virus is present in.....

    http://www.thejournal.ie/ebola-ireland-guidelines-1716135-Oct2014/

    What the actual ****? I get that it's hard to spot but this is ****ing ridiculous, it's already spread to countries outside of Africa due to extremely lax exit protocols in the countries it's present in, what the **** are the HSE smoking?

    Because it's largely a really expensive money pit that won't detect anything. It's just the US and UK taking pointless public reassurance measures. Expect more false positives and fear than anything else.


  • #1255
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Because it's largely a really expensive money pit that won't detect anything. It's just the US and UK taking pointless public reassurance measures.

    Exactly.



  • #1256
    TwoShedsJackson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,438 ✭✭✭TwoShedsJackson


    Meglamonia wrote: »
    What are the chances of it mutating and becoming airborne?

    3.50 %


  • #1257
    snubbleste
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31,119 ✭✭✭✭snubbleste


    So,
    based on this episode, how many african lives is one western life worth :confused:


  • #1258
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    snubbleste wrote: »
    So,
    based on this episode, how many african lives is one western life worth :confused:

    It has been around since 1970s and Big Pharma never got around to creating large quantities of vaccine. But they will fast-track and mass produce it now (because it is in Texas) as long as they know someone will pick up the bill.
    Some people would be happy to close the borders with affected countries and let it be survival of the fittest.


  • #1259
    Bacchus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,016 ✭✭✭Bacchus


    Ever since this outbreak first started and the first news reports started coming in, I'm like...


  • #1260
    the_monkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,557 ✭✭✭the_monkey


    royalflush2003 wrote: »
    Batten down the hatches it's spreading with air travel - think about it if you lived within that area , you would do anything to get out , this is going to get a hell of lot worse , it's rampant and getting worse , don't be fooled by mainstream media , behind the scenes it's a full scale panic but through the mainstream media they don't want panic -
    People need to wake up !!
    I hope I'm wrong .............


    Yeah , cos most of those people living in West Africa can afford to just hop on a plane and leave the continent...


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  • #1261
    snubbleste
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31,119 ✭✭✭✭snubbleste


    Suspected case in Brazil.
    Refugee from Guinea hospitalised
    http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2014/10/1530277-paciente-com-suspeita-de-ebola-e-transferido-ao-rio-de-janeiro.shtml


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