The Iceland Volcano Thread

"The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun. A subglacial eruption melts the ice and causes floods. We surveyed the glacier for three hours today. I can of course not assert that nothing has happened, but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption. It is therefore likely that the magma has not reached the surface yet - regardless of what will happen later in this process, because this is a fairly large event and those who delay to give timely warnings can carry a large responsibility. Therefore, it was considered proper to be careful today but when more information comes in, the most likely conclusion is that an eruption has not begun, whatever happens later in this event"

cherryghost wrote: »

Nowhere near the recent swarms though

he following points were the conclusion at a meeting of the Advisory Board today:
Intense seismicity continues. Over 500 events have been recorded since midnight.
Seismicity continues to migrate northward. Seismicity is now concentrated on the 10 km long tip of the dike extending 5 km beyond the edge of the Dyngjujökull glacier.
At 01:26 this morning an earthquake of magnitude 5,7 was observed beneath the
Bárðarbunga caldera.
The dyke beneath Dyngjujökull is now thought to be close to 40 km long. Modelling
of GPS data indicates that about 50 million cubic meters of magma have added to the volume in the last 24 hours.
There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining. The following three scenarios are still considered most likely:
The migration of magma could stop, accompanied by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dyke. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
An alternate scenario would be the dyke reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárðarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.

Stinicker wrote: »

Cool, if this thing erupts we can expect a freezing cold winter as the 2010 eruption contributed to the subsequent big freeze here after.

yellowlabrador wrote: »

I'm thinking of buying some face masks for the event of a major eruption. I hope not to need them but signs are not good and all we need is a northwesterly wind I think this eruption might be similar to the fires of Skaftá in the 1780's

Tazio wrote: »

I had never heard of the Skaftáreldar ("Skaftá fires") eruption before.. a quick Google and found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

That was a pretty impressive yet scary read to be honest..