The Iceland Volcano Thread

modelled plume distribution here

(hypothetical of course....)

maquiladora wrote: »

According to Jón Frímann, Icelandic news are reporting that the caldera might be lowering. A caldera collapsing event would be a huge eruption.

We'll just have to wait and see. This could go on for quite a while yet before anything happens (if at all).

I would be very surprise if that is taking place, however small. Maybe the translation from Icelandic to English has another meaning?

It had a 1477 Feb VEI 6 caldera event then. It is still rebuilding the caldera now.

http://skemman.is/stream/get/1946/5993/17169/1/BAOphd.pdf

Agree with you Maquiladora, so far no Big EQ's above 5km. Found another point of view to the Jon's source.

His source is possibly the following from Mbl.is today at 15.46, roughly translated:

Earthquakes today are in the caldera itself and probably indicative of the caldera lowering, according to analyst at Meteorological Institute.

“We interpret it so that these strong earthquakes today are primarily linked to a possible settlement in the caldera itself. There has been a change in pressure in the region and magma is moving and what we see now is probably the caldera adapting to these changes, “says Sara Barsotti, Specialist in volcanic hazards with IMO.

Its a different volcano in fact I think its the largest one in iceland....

Nice article from Met Eireann on it published this evening....
Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano
21 August 2014

Iceland is the most seismically active country in Europe, bisected by the mid-Atlantic ridge, which is a divergent feature separating the Eurasian and the North American tectonic plates. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are a constant feature of Icelandic life. The most significant recent volcanic eruptions were those of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010, which produced an ash cloud that closed down much of Europe’s airspace for a number of days, and Grimsvötn in May 2011, the ash from which was also disruptive of air traffic, but to a much lesser extent. Grimsvötn lies under the thick ice of Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajökull, and it is another volcano under the same ice sheet, called Bárðarbunga, which has shown significant activity in recent days and has put the aviation authorities of Europe into a state of alert.

Since Saturday August 16th some thousands of earthquakes have been detected at Bárðarbunga by the earthquake monitoring network of the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), and the earthquakes continue to occur at an approximate rate of 1000/day (see the webpage at http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ for more detail and the latest reports). Most of these earthquakes measure between 1 and 2 on the Richter Scale, but there have been a few exceeding 3 and one tremor recorded at 4.5. The Richter Scale is logarithmic, meaning that a tremor measuring 4 is ten times more powerful than a tremor recorded as 3. As of Thursday August 21st there have been no signs of magma migrating towards the surface, which would be a necessary precursor to an eruption, but nevertheless the IMO has issued an Orange-level aviation warning due to the increased risk. As the volcano is situated beneath an ice cap, an eruption could result in an ash plume which may have consequences for both aviation and health.

Wind forecast data supplied by Met Éireann are used as input to an air quality model developed by the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway. The ash forecasting system was developed by the Volcanic Ash Strategic Team funded by the European Space Agency. They have produced a simulation of a hypothetical eruption from Bárðarbunga which can be seen online at:
http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=129:spatialplume&catid=97:volcano&Itemid=83

This simulation is updated every afternoon with the latest wind forecast data, and illustrates the track which an ash cloud might take should the volcano actually erupt. In the event of an eruption, this model will be used in conjunction with the official guidance from the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) which is run by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organisation.

Interesting cloud simulation (for anyone who didn't click the link above!). Appears to auto-update.

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Nice article from Met Eireann on it published this evening....
Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano
21 August 2014

Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano

Iceland is the most seismically active country in Europe, bisected by the mid-Atlantic ridge, which is a divergent feature separating the Eurasian and the North American tectonic plates. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are a constant feature of Icelandic life. The most significant recent volcanic eruptions were those of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010, which produced an ash cloud that closed down much of Europe’s airspace for a number of days, and Grimsvötn in May 2011, the ash from which was also disruptive of air traffic, but to a much lesser extent. Grimsvötn lies under the thick ice of Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajökull, and it is another volcano under the same ice sheet, called Bárðarbunga, which has shown significant activity in recent days and has put the aviation authorities of Europe into a state of alert.

Since Saturday August 16th some thousands of earthquakes have been detected at Bárðarbunga by the earthquake monitoring network of the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), and the earthquakes continue to occur at an approximate rate of 1000/day (see the webpage at http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ for more detail and the latest reports). Most of these earthquakes measure between 1 and 2 on the Richter Scale, but there have been a few exceeding 3 and one tremor recorded at 4.5. The Richter Scale is logarithmic, meaning that a tremor measuring 4 is ten times more powerful than a tremor recorded as 3. As of Thursday August 21st there have been no signs of magma migrating towards the surface, which would be a necessary precursor to an eruption, but nevertheless the IMO has issued an Orange-level aviation warning due to the increased risk. As the volcano is situated beneath an ice cap, an eruption could result in an ash plume which may have consequences for both aviation and health.

Wind forecast data supplied by Met Éireann are used as input to an air quality model developed by the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway. The ash forecasting system was developed by the Volcanic Ash Strategic Team funded by the European Space Agency. They have produced a simulation of a hypothetical eruption from Bárðarbunga which can be seen online at:
http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=129:spatialplume&catid=97:volcano&Itemid=83

This simulation is updated every afternoon with the latest wind forecast data, and illustrates the track which an ash cloud might take should the volcano actually erupt. In the event of an eruption, this model will be used in conjunction with the official guidance from the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) which is run by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organisation.

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

If youre looking at that 3D view the webcam shakes when its updated.

It shakes when its updated.. how bizzare!

EDIT: There is a checkbox to stop the shake but it was only visible to me when my browser was fullscreen

Thursday 21.08.2014 23:50:20 64.620 -17.459 4.3 km 4.7 99.0 4.0 km SE of Bárðarbunga

Strongest of the 6000+ Earth quakes, so far. Still no uplift in the GPS stations, apart from old grim.

http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/GFUM.html

http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/#VATN This link is for the Bárðarbunga GPS stations.

That's what it look like when Grímsvotn erupted last time.


The information below is 2+ days old.

Possible model of the dike intrusion:

Length of dike: 20 km

Height of dike: 2,1 km

Opening of dike: 1,6 m

Depth to the dike: 3 km

Volume of dike: 80-90 million cubic meters

Strike = 47,51, dip 90 (predefined)

Depth to Mogi source: 1 km

Volume change of Mogi source:

-10 til -30 million cubic meters

http://earthice.hi.is/bardarbunga_new_map_gps_and_seismic_data- Link for the data above

The MAR *Mid Atlantic Rift* basic picture, with some GP stations.

g0g wrote: »

Interesting cloud simulation (for anyone who didn't click the link above!). Appears to auto-update.

it's a simulation of an ash plume not a cloud

tphase wrote: »

it's a simulation of an ash plume not a cloud

Thanks Mr Pedantic! This is why I rarely post on the weather forum because I mostly get it wrong! Can it not be referred to as an "ash cloud"?

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea what level of ash is sufficient to ground flights?

> 4mg / m^3 (the second tier on the colour chart on that map, 2nd lightest grey)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_ash_and_aviation_safety

To minimise further disruption that this and other volcanic eruptions could cause, the CAA created a new category of restricted airspace called a Time Limited Zone.[7] Airspace categorised as TLZ is similar to airspace under severe weather conditions, in that restrictions should be of a short duration. However, a key difference with TLZ airspace is that airlines must produce certificates of compliance for aircraft they want to enter these areas. Any airspace where ash density exceeds 4 mg per cubic metre is prohibited airspace

Possible red alert going to be issued via IMO , soon.

Code Red ?

http://en.vedur.is/weather/aviation/volcanic-hazards/

http://www.ruv.is/frett/litid-gos-hafid-i-dyngjujokli

Small eruption has begun at the crack northeast of Bárðarbunga in Dyngjujökli, says Kristin Jonsdottir, with the Meteorological Institute. Air traffic over a wide area around Bárðarbunga has been banned: The IMO has amended its warning in red. Dyke is 25 km. lengthy and increased functionality has been there.

Willow Reynisson Civil says neyðarstig be prepared. The event is a little unclear, but each of these changes. TF SIF is in flight and will be over the glacier. Is being closed canyon and waterfall region where tourists come away.

You activate Coordinating Centre for Civil Protection. No evacuation will then find ourselves in Kelduhverfi or Öxarfjörður, according to Civil Defense. Broadcast live on Channel 2 People where is encouraged to remain alert and monitor the radio and switched on their mobile phones, says Willow.

Kristin says that it can not rule out a larger eruption. Considerable divergence has been the past few days and it has appeared on GPS gauges. Every day, indicating that magma is flowing into the clip; potential to become a similar trend to that in the Krafla eruption, when many tens of miles aside and cracks opened up.

I tried to check one of the webcams, but it's been flattened by the traffic.