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8-10's 2014 Baseball Log

  • 25-03-2014 12:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,080 ✭✭✭✭ 8-10


    Ok guys here is another baseball log, hopefully more successful than last years one and I'll try my best to be more regular with logging throughout the season to the end.

    Quick recap of last year. I posted my win totals for every team here on Boards at the beginning of 2013. Based on the win-line market from Paddy Power at the start of 2013, 23 out of 30 times I was correct on the OVER/UNDER. So I'm doing the same for this year, except this year I'm actually placing bets! Last year was just testing out my projections.

    I'm going to post season long bets (including win lines on all 30 MLB teams) in post 2, I have 750pts in play. And the plan is to have a bank of 750pts for daily betting throughout the season (I'll post these from post 3 if you want to skip the season-long stuff)

    And if you're interested in a broader range of baseball picks check out Anchorman's log here (was very successful last season with baseball picks) and JONJO's new baseball log here (he has a new system rolling out for 2014)

    Here's last year anyway, my wins from this post in column 2, Paddy's line in column 3 and the actual result in 2013 in column 5:

    2013winlines_zps8886a8a1.jpg


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Comments



  • Ok so here's a list of the 2014 season long bets. Some of these were from as far back as March 10th, others in the past week, however even if the odds have changed slightly since then, I maintain that I would still be making the same picks with the same stakes. I'm not concerned about odds as much as I am about correct picks.

    2014winlines_zpsfc4e495f.jpg
    2014others_zpsa0044da1.jpg




  • Completely boring 1st bet of the season:

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning
    Dodgers v Padres - 5pts @ 8/15 (PP)




  • Nice one, both of us off to a nice start:cool:




  • 8-10 wrote: »

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning
    Dodgers v Padres - 5pts @ 8/15 (PP) WIN

    Winner at short odds but winner none the less and log is off to a start

    Total Staked - 5
    Total Returned - 7.67
    ROI - 53.40%

    Today's '2' bets:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Nationals v Mets @ 5/9
    Cardinals v Reds @ 10/13

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Mariners v Angels @ 8/15

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Cubs v Pirates @ 31/20
    Phillies v Rangers @20/23

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Indians v Athletics @ 8/15

    40pts staked

    As with last year, odds for the 1st half match betting market usually isn't quoted on PaddyPower until about 3.30 I think (will edit this post). I will still try where possible to get picks up before that time. For those not familiar, 1st half betting means betting on the result of first 5 innings only. If it's a tie after 5 each, then it's a push. I like this bet as it allows you to back the starting pitcher and not be undone by poor relief (see: Hyun-Jin Ryu last night for the Dodgers, excellent start from him and LA winning 1-0 after 5 innings, however poor relief conceding 3 runs late on and they lost the game - bet would have still won if you back Dodgers 1st half)




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Nationals v Mets @ 5/9 LOSE
    Cardinals v Reds @ 10/13 PUSH

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Mariners v Angels @ 8/15 LOSE

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Cubs v Pirates @ 31/20 PUSH
    Phillies v Rangers @20/23 WIN

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Indians v Athletics @ 8/15 WIN

    Small profit, ok with that.

    Total Staked - 45
    Total Returned - 53.35
    ROI - 18.56%

    Today's 5pt Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Dodgers v Padres @ 20/31
    Angels v Mariners @ 5/9
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 10/17


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  • 8-10 wrote: »
    1st Half Match Betting
    Dodgers v Padres @ 20/31 WIN
    Angels v Mariners @ 5/9 LOSE
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 10/17 LOSE

    No luck. 2 bets today

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Brewers v Braves @ 8/11
    Padres v Dodgers @ 20/23

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Cardinals v Reds @ 4/7

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Tigers v Royals @ 1/2
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 20/33
    Nationals v Mets @ 5/7




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    No luck. 2 bets today

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Brewers v Braves @ 8/11 PUSH
    Padres v Dodgers @ 20/23 LOSE

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Cardinals v Reds @ 4/7 WIN

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Tigers v Royals @ 1/2 WIN
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 20/33 LOSE
    Nationals v Mets @ 5/7 WIN

    Record is now 7-6-3 in terms of W-L-P but overall I'm down because I'm betting multiples.

    Staked: 105
    Returned: 74.07
    ROI: -29.46%

    Today's 5pt Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Royals v Tigers @ 13/10
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 20/31
    Mets v Nationals @ evens

    Backing the young arms.




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Record is now 7-6-3 in terms of W-L-P but overall I'm down because I'm betting multiples.

    Staked: 105
    Returned: 74.07
    ROI: -29.46%

    Today's 5pt Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Royals v Tigers @ 13/10
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 20/31
    Mets v Nationals @ evens

    Backing the young arms.

    FYI Zimmermann has been scratched from his start so I've had to re-bet and odds for Mets are now 21/20 instead of evens




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    1st Half Match Betting
    Royals v Tigers @ 13/10 VOID
    Rays v Blue Jays @ 20/31 WIN
    Mets v Nationals @ evens LOSE

    Royals game got called off and Mets blew their lead in the 5th inning which is very annoying when you're betting on first 5 innings. Rays won so my overall record is still hovering around 50%, 8-7-3 (not counting Royals as it was a void not a push)

    But again since I'm betting multiples and not singles I'm not getting much of a return. Today's Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Athletics v Mariners @ 4/6
    Diamondbacks v Rockies @ 59/50

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Cardinals v Pirates @ 8/15

    Excited about the Diamondbacks pick as I've spent a lot of time this morning analyzing the matchup. Could be a very good pick, or a very very bad one!




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Royals game got called off and Mets blew their lead in the 5th inning which is very annoying when you're betting on first 5 innings. Rays won so my overall record is still hovering around 50%, 8-7-3 (not counting Royals as it was a void not a push)

    But again since I'm betting multiples and not singles I'm not getting much of a return. Today's Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Athletics v Mariners @ 4/6
    Diamondbacks v Rockies @ 59/50

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Cardinals v Pirates @ 8/15

    Excited about the Diamondbacks pick as I've spent a lot of time this morning analyzing the matchup. Could be a very good pick, or a very very bad one!

    Yep, that backfired BADLY. I figured it would only go one way or the other.


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  • Ok drawing board time before this small slide gets bigger.

    Bet365 offer a 'lead after x innings' market, and seeing as the odds are better and I have so many times been burnt in the 5th inning, I'm going to experiment with the lead after 4 innings market.

    Secondly, I've noticed that nearly every day I have a push result (tie after 5 innings). So I was thinking how can I work with this? So I'm experimenting with the Double Result market (think HT/FT market like in soccer). This allows me to back a tie after 5 and each team to win. I need a tie after 5 innings to guarantee return.

    Let's give it a go:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    Lead After 4 Innings
    Yankees @ 29/20
    Cardinals @ 33/20
    Red Sox @ 5/7

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    Lead After 4 Innings
    Giants @ 6/5
    Reds @ 27/20
    Rays @ 20/23

    Bet 3 - 2.5pt Singles

    Double Result
    Tie - Miami @ 5/1
    Tie - Padres @ 17/2
    Tie - Washington @ 11/2
    Tie - Atlanta @ 17/2




  • The lead after 4 innings was no good, and tie's not counting as a push really hurts the multiple betting.

    I'm just back from the States where I couldn't bet so it's been a week since the last one.

    On a terrible run (will update log tomorrow), but here's today's picks:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Rays v Orioles @ 10/11
    Braves v Phillies @ 27/20
    Nationals v Marlins @ 20/37

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Pirates v Reds @ 20/23 (2nd game not the continuation of yesterday's)
    Cardinals v Brewers @ 11/10
    Royals v Astros @20/31




  • 4 more bets for the long-term log as I've been keeping an eye on the Home Run market which is very volatile.

    Both the below have the potential to hit more HR's than everybody else and I definitely think there's value in the prices:

    Giancarlo Stanton @ 20/1
    Mike Trout @ 33/1

    And in NL Cy Young Betting I like the following picks, again both have the potential:

    Jose Fernandez @ 6/1
    Stephen Strasburg @ 20/1

    Prices are with Paddy Power and max bet is €10 unfortunately (I wanted to put 50 on Trout, when you get 33/1 on him leading the majors in a batting category, you take it!)

    For the purpose of the log I'm saying 10pts on each, 40 in play




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    The lead after 4 innings was no good, and tie's not counting as a push really hurts the multiple betting.

    I'm just back from the States where I couldn't bet so it's been a week since the last one.

    On a terrible run (will update log tomorrow), but here's today's picks:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Rays v Orioles @ 10/11 VOID
    Braves v Phillies @ 27/20 VOID
    Nationals v Marlins @ 20/37 LOSE

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Pirates v Reds @ 20/23 (2nd game not the continuation of yesterday's) WIN
    Cardinals v Brewers @ 11/10 WIN
    Royals
    v Astros @20/31WIN

    Finally get all 3 in a bet to come in! And got 5pts back from the other bet with the 2 games rained off. The less we say about the Nationals the better.

    Absolutely snowed under at work today so doubt I'll have time to research picks tonight.




  • Man that day I experimented with the bet365 markets really screwed me over, would have been ok without that day but that's how we learn our lessons.

    Total Staked: 235pts
    Total Returned: 171.88pts
    ROI: -26.86%

    Starting bank: 2,000pts
    In-play (year-long): 990pts
    Current bank: 946.88
    Profit/loss: -63.12pts

    Today's 5pt Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Mariners v Rangers @ 21/20
    Padres v Rockies @ 10/13

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Dodgers v Giants @ 8/15




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Today's 5pt Trixie:

    1st Half Match Betting
    Mariners v Rangers @ 21/20 LOSE
    Padres v Rockies @ 10/13 WIN

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Dodgers v Giants @ 8/15 LOSE

    No good.

    Record is 14-20-7 with -32% ROI. Ouch.

    Let's go again with 3 bets:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Rays v Twins @ 5/11
    Astros v Mariners @ 25/17

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Marlins v Braves @ 8/15

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Orioles v Blue Jays @ 11/10
    Yankees v Red Sox @ 20/23
    Giants v Rockies @ 10/13

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Reds v Pirates @ 4/5
    Cardinals v Mets @ 5/9
    Dodgers v Phillies @ 5/9




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting

    Rays v Twins @ 5/11 WIN
    Astros v Mariners @ 25/17 WIN

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Marlins v Braves @ 8/15 WIN

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Orioles v Blue Jays @ 11/10 PUSH
    Yankees v Red Sox @ 20/23 WIN
    Giants v Rockies @ 10/13 LOSE

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    1st Half Match Betting
    Reds v Pirates @ 4/5 PUSH
    Cardinals v Mets @ 5/9 WIN
    Dodgers v Phillies @ 5/9 LOSE

    Another trixie comes in. However I'm thinking of reverting to my old 3x 5pt doubles and no treble bet to be more steady. Will try that this week.

    Record is 19-22-9 with ROI of -16%




  • Bet 1 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting

    Giants v Rockies @ 20/21
    Brewers v Padres @ 10/13

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Angels v Nationals @ 8/15

    Bet 2 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Athletics v Rangers @ 20/33
    Cubs v Diamondbacks @ 5/6
    Astros v Mariners @ 23/20

    Bet 2 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Indians v Royals @ 8/11
    Cardinals v Mets @ 4/6
    Dodgers v Phillies @ 10/17

    Doubles instead of Trixies! 45pts in play!




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Bet 1 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting

    Giants v Rockies @ 20/21 LOSE
    Brewers v Padres @ 10/13 WIN

    Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning
    Angels v Nationals @ 8/15 LOSE

    Bet 2 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Athletics v Rangers @ 20/33 LOSE
    Cubs v Diamondbacks @ 5/6 WIN
    Astros v Mariners @ 23/20 WIN

    Bet 2 - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Indians v Royals @ 8/11 PUSH
    Cardinals v Mets @ 4/6 LOSE
    Dodgers v Phillies @ 10/17 WIN

    4-4-1 yesterday. We go again:

    Bet - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Reds v Pirates @ evens
    Tigers v White Sox @ 5/11
    Orioles v Blue Jays @ 6/5




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    4-4-1 yesterday. We go again:

    Bet - 3x 5pt Doubles

    1st Half Match Betting
    Reds v Pirates @ evens LOSE
    Tigers v White Sox @ 5/11 WIN
    Orioles v Blue Jays @ 6/5 LOSE

    I really couldn't believe the odds on Reds and Orioles yesterday, thought I was getting a great deal. Both were behind by a single run after 5 innings then came back to win the game. If I'd bet to win they'd all have come in.

    Changing it up today:

    5pt Trixie:

    Royals -1.5 to beat Orioles @ 25/17
    Mets -1.5 to beat Miami @ 15/8
    Pirates v Cardinals UNDER 7.0 runs @ 11/10


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  • 8-10 wrote: »
    5pt Trixie:

    Royals -1.5 to beat Orioles @ 25/17 WIN
    Mets -1.5 to beat Miami @ 15/8 LOSE
    Pirates v Cardinals UNDER 7.0 runs @ 11/10 WIN

    1 run away from a big return. Royals easy 5-0 win and Pirates Cards UNDER 7 easy too (ended 1-0). Mets won but only by a single run. We go again:

    Bet - 5pt Trixie

    Handicap
    Dodgers -1.5 @ 5/3
    Braves -1.5 @ 9/5

    Win
    Cubs @ 25/17




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Handicap
    Dodgers -1.5 @ 5/3 WIN
    Braves -1.5 @ 9/5 WIN

    Win
    Cubs @ 25/17 LOSE

    Another 2/3 but that's 2 winning days in a row and 4 out of the last 5 with a return.

    Total Staked: 1405pts
    Total Staked and Settled: 415pts
    Total Returned: 355.54pts
    Still in play (not settled): 990pts
    ROI: -14.33% (based on settled bets)

    It's starting to come back around. No bets today, more tomorrow




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Another 2/3 but that's 2 winning days in a row and 4 out of the last 5 with a return.

    Total Staked: 1405pts
    Total Staked and Settled: 415pts
    Total Returned: 355.54pts
    Still in play (not settled): 990pts
    ROI: -14.33% (based on settled bets)

    It's starting to come back around. No bets today, more tomorrow

    Nice little run man, well in. I know you've said no bets today but can you look at something for me. I think the A's, White Sox and Cubs are overpriced what do you make of those games?




  • Nice little run man, well in. I know you've said no bets today but can you look at something for me. I think the A's, White Sox and Cubs are overpriced what do you make of those games?

    Very sorry man only seeing those picks now. What was the A's price? I was intrigued by the matchup and you're right it's probably the longest you'd see Sonny Gray this year facing Darvish and looks like he dominated.

    White Sox too a great pick. Odorizzi is quickly looking like one of those pitchers you always bet against. Had heard good things about him in sprin but I've never actually watched him pitch yet. Numbers wise he's one to avoid.

    We're spoiled tonight with a rake of great matchups. Braves v Miami will be a cracker and unders looks good. At least 4 other interesting ones. Got an hour after lunch to review and will get picks up after




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Very sorry man only seeing those picks now. What was the A's price? I was intrigued by the matchup and you're right it's probably the longest you'd see Sonny Gray this year facing Darvish and looks like he dominated.

    White Sox too a great pick. Odorizzi is quickly looking like one of those pitchers you always bet against. Had heard good things about him in sprin but I've never actually watched him pitch yet. Numbers wise he's one to avoid.

    We're spoiled tonight with a rake of great matchups. Braves v Miami will be a cracker and unders looks good. At least 4 other interesting ones. Got an hour after lunch to review and will get picks up after

    The A's were 5/4 and the White Sox were 11/10. The just stood out to me!
    U7.5 in the A's game was 11/10 .. buying money with Gray and Darvish on the mounds.




  • U7.5 in the A's game was 11/10 .. buying money with Gray and Darvish on the mounds.

    U7.5 is huge! They only have the line at 6.0 for the Braves v Miami game today which gets me a bit worried but will likely still take it. Wood v Fernandez.




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    U7.5 is huge! They only have the line at 6.0 for the Braves v Miami game today which gets me a bit worried but will likely still take it. Wood v Fernandez.

    6 is just about on the borderline, its probably too low but with those two on the mound its very very hard to back the over. Especially Fernandez at home.




  • 6 is just about on the borderline, its probably too low but with those two on the mound its very very hard to back the over. Especially Fernandez at home.

    Yes agreed, can't back the overs. In terms of home though I'm always wary of Marlin's park. Yes it's atrocious for Home Runs, but if you follow Park Factors you'll see it's actually always around top ten ballparks for runs scored. Still, will be an under bet.

    Another under pick I'll have today is Cubs v Reds but I still haven't seen the line or odds yet on B365 or PP, expecting it shortly as PP update their baseball markets generally between 3 and 4, usually by 3.30.

    Will probably round it off with orioles -1.5 but Dodgers, Astros, Rangers and Brewers games all look interesting. Might possibly have 6 picks today. Update soon.




  • 8-10 wrote: »
    Yes agreed, can't back the overs. In terms of home though I'm always wary of Marlin's park. Yes it's atrocious for Home Runs, but if you follow Park Factors you'll see it's actually always around top ten ballparks for runs scored. Still, will be an under bet.

    Another under pick I'll have today is Cubs v Reds but I still haven't seen the line or odds yet on B365 or PP, expecting it shortly as PP update their baseball markets generally between 3 and 4, usually by 3.30.

    Will probably round it off with orioles -1.5 but Dodgers, Astros, Rangers and Brewers games all look interesting. Might possibly have 6 picks today. Update soon.

    Yeah todays schedule is really interesting. Some great pitching match ups. Todays Red/Cubs is the same as last nights canceled one I was on the unders there and I like it alot. Line yesterday was 7.5


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  • Ok here we go:

    Bet 1 - 5pt Trixie

    Cubs v Reds - UNDER 7.5 runs @ 20/23
    Braves v Marlins - UNDER 6.0 runs @ evens
    Orioles v Pirates - Orioles -1.5 runs @ 6/4

    Bet 2 - 5pt Trixie

    Dodgers v Twins - Dodgers -1.5 runs @ 21/20
    Nationals v Astros - UNDER 8.0 runs @ evens
    Brewers v Cardinals - UNDER 0.5 runs in 2nd inning @ 8/15


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