Claim: 'Kyiv is the mother of all Russian Cities'

Bellatori wrote: »

I think you misunderstand my point or I did not make it clear (probably!). Estonia and Latvia have a 25%+ Russian minority and these are quite tightly grouped. If they agitate for independence what will the EU and NATO do. They won't be 'attacked' they will simply agitate and disrupt.

Well there are two different scenarios to consider. Firstly, supposing there was a govt. clampdown on the agitators/separatists, and some kind of massacre happened, and then the agitators called to Putin for help and protection.
In the case of Eastern Ukraine, the Russians could conceivably invade the country temporarily as "a humanitarian mission" without triggering a Nato response. This could happen even if the separatists were in a minority in their own region. But in the case of Poland or the Baltic states, a Nato response would be guaranteed, because of their defence pact. So there is a big difference there.

In the second scenario, the agitators would "do a Crimea" ie they hold a referendum and declare independence, subsequently inviting in the Russians permanently. In this situation it would be claimed by the separatists and by the Russians that no invasion took place. The previous sovereign would claim that they still "owned" the region, and therefore an invasion did take place. In this scenario Nato would side with the Nato country, and take the view that the country had been invaded and attacked. Again, Nato membership is the deciding factor.
Also AFAIK the pro-Russian population in the Baltic states is mostly urban but relatively diffused. So it is not concentrated in a particular region where it might have any possibility of being in the majority. Ukraine is different.

Bellatori wrote: »

The other point I would make is, what grouping is entitled to vote for independence? Scotland thinks it is entitled and the rest of the UK has no say. Suppose the Orkney and Shetlands say they don't like the rest of Scotland can they vote for independence from the rest of Scotland? Can the Turk and Ukrainian areas in Crimea vote for separation from the rest of Crimea?

I gave my opinion earlier that something around the size of a province is the minimum size, but smaller for geographically isolated places such as islands. So for example N. Ireland, Crimea, Iceland, Scotland. There is a minimum size for an independent sustainable economic unit, in terms of providing a police force, civil service etc.. but this is obviously less relevant if the proposal is to immediately join with another country after the secession, and to plug into their political and economic system.

It is noticeable however that no international leader or organisation will ever give an opinion or a rule on this. Because if they did, it would hinder them from taking their own biased position later, in an individual case.

Shetland Islands (British owned) and the Faroes (Danish owned) are quite close geographically and culturally. Both would probably do better economically under Norway. If they wanted to secede and join Norway, and the Norwegians agreed to it, I would not consider that either the British or the Danish had any right to prevent them. People have their own ideas about their nationality and culture though, and AFAIK these are all happy with the status quo.