The Prince of Burma appreciation thread

hawaii501 · 24-08-2013 09:24AM

Burton Albion seem to be once again overpriced at home this season. They are evens at home to Bury who have been struggling this season although they did make 2 decent transfers during the week. I still think Burton are good value.

Slattsy · 24-08-2013 09:26AM

Am I the only one that doesn't bet on the Prem?

Will do a first goal scorer bet when I'm having a few pints with the lads and the very odd coupon.

Liverpool price is generally shocking I have to admit!

Overthelast · 24-08-2013 09:36AM

I bet maybe 3 or 4 times a year on the footy, that's it. And for buttons. But I do like to throw an opinion out on the odd match or two where I think the prices are upside down.

UrbanSea · 24-08-2013 09:43AM

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

ft9 · 24-08-2013 09:45AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

You should really stop backing horses so

UrbanSea · 24-08-2013 09:45AM

I'm focussing on underage women's hockey lately

ft9 · 24-08-2013 09:46AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm focussing on underage women's hockey lately

And robbing other peoples jokes!

UrbanSea · 24-08-2013 09:53AM

And dropping yokes

ft9 · 24-08-2013 09:54AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

And dropping yokes

Anthony Stokes.

UrbanSea · 24-08-2013 09:56AM

Snogging blokes

ft9 · 24-08-2013 09:56AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

Snogging blokes

He rode your folks

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 09:57AM

Took 2.15 +0.75 with Bet365 (bigger than Pinnicle are laying)

Wasn't a big bet. Not a huge fan of swimming against such a strong current!

UrbanSea · 24-08-2013 09:57AM

ft9 wrote: »

He rode your folks

They were on coke

ft9 · 24-08-2013 09:58AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

They were on coke

They love a poke

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 10:36AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

A key price in the premiership is 2.2, assuming two teams of equal ability play in the premiership a fair price for the home team is around 2.2 (I made it 2.17 in a rough points based model, the biggest punter I know uses 2.19)

A lot of my betting is at prices in and around that level. Stoke were 2.3 last year to best Wigan at home i.e. the prices implied Wigan were a slightly better team. I backed Stoke (they actually went 2-0 up & drew!)

Liverpool were slight odds on at home to Spurs last year, again the market had it wrong. When Man U played Liverpool at home the prices at kick off implied all that was between then was Utd's home advantage.

I look at what prices say about the 2 teams relative ability & make my punting decisions based on that

24-08-2013 10:37AM

ft9 wrote: »

They love a poke

Enough of this joke

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 10:46AM

droidman123 wrote: »

Enough of this joke

Will Crystal Palace beat Stoke?

NewApproach · 24-08-2013 10:49AM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

A key price in the premiership is 2.2, assuming two teams of equal ability play in the premiership a fair price for the home team is around 2.2 (I made it 2.17 in a rough points based model, the biggest punter I know uses 2.19)

A lot of my betting is at prices in and around that level. Stoke were 2.3 last year to best Wigan at home i.e. the prices implied Wigan were a slightly better team. I backed Stoke (they actually went 2-0 up & drew!)

Liverpool were slight odds on at home to Spurs last year, again the market had it wrong. When Man U played Liverpool at home the prices at kick off implied all that was between then was Utd's home advantage.

I look at what prices say about the 2 teams relative ability & make my punting decisions based on that

Out of interest what do you make the 'draw' and 'away', when home is 2.17 based on two equal teams?

Johner · 24-08-2013 10:50AM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Will Crystal Palace beat Stoke?

Mono........Doh!

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 10:54AM

NewApproach wrote: »

Out of interest what do you make the 'draw' and 'away', when home is 2.17 based on two equal teams?

Tbh I just focus on homes prices & the associated Asian handicaps. The draw price (and hence the away) will be influenced by goals expectations. I've a job so can't spend enough time focusing on all mkts! My model is quite rough (only used points) so I wouldn't hang my hat on it completely & the apparent edge needs to be quite large to follow it (although I'll often check with a few others to see if I'm mistaken)

Rarely (if ever) look at the draw & away (non handicap) prices. if a home team looks too short I'll either lay them or back the away team +0.5 as I haven't modelled the draw/away prices to see which would be better value of the 2

Johner · 24-08-2013 10:56AM

Just watch Liverpool games, they are always shocking prices. Why are they odds on against a Villa side that beat Arsenal away and were very unlucky not to get something at Stamford Bridge. Villa are massive value today.

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 10:57AM

In terms of draws there are a few exceptions when I do play them

There's quite a big draw bias in the first leg of champions league games. Also 40%+ of knock out games in the European championships have ended in draws.

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 10:58AM

Johner wrote: »

Just watch Liverpool games, they are always shocking prices. Why are they odds on against a Villa side that beat Arsenal away and were very unlucky not to get something at Stamford Bridge. Villa are massive value today.

The thing about Liverpool is you'll look at their price on Wednesday & think they're too short. Come the weekend they'll be shorter.

They were being priced last season, week in week out, as if they were a champions league team

Johner · 24-08-2013 11:01AM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about Liverpool is you'll look at their price on Wednesday & think they're too short. Come the weekend they'll be shorter.

They were being priced last season, week in week out, as if they were a champions league team

I forgot though, it's their year! :rolleyes:

Johner · 24-08-2013 11:04AM

Arsenal were value last night at just better than evens purely because of their record against Fulham.

Arsenal have won on eight of their 12 trips to Craven Cottage since Fulham were promoted to the Premier League.

For all the injuries they have the first 11 that is starting today looks decent to me and should be enough to get the job done at Fulham.

#Arsenal team to play Fulham: Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker (c), Sagna, Gibbs, Ramsey, Rosicky, Cazorla, Walcott, Podolski, Giroud.

Johner · 24-08-2013 11:31AM

hawaii501 wrote: »

Burton Albion seem to be once again overpriced at home this season. They are evens at home to Bury who have been struggling this season although they did make 2 decent transfers during the week. I still think Burton are good value.

5/4 on Bet Victor.

Burton have lost two of their best players from last season in Maghoma and Zola but have started really well this season. They are going for 16 wins out of 18 at home so the 5/4 does look a great price. Although last time Bury came to the Pirelli they won 3-1! I was at it. :cool: That was when Bury were flying high in League 2 and Burton were struggling down near the foot of the table. Hopefully be different today, I've taken some of the 5/4 and hopefully the Brewers continue with their fine home record. BREWERS BREWERS BREWERS.

carpothepunk · 24-08-2013 01:04PM

fangee wrote: »

Punk my Arsè. Have you even heard of Rumble ?

Where are you getting 3's ?

They are best priced 12/5.

Apologies, I thought you mentioned 3s earlier in the thread. Even worse again, best priced 12/5, you must make them an 11/8 shot or so to be getting involved. Again, whats your book?

And please don't make a silly comment about me. Aha.

Colonel Sanders · 24-08-2013 01:11PM

Any idea who the new crowd on Oddschecker are? Sports Winner

Judging by my experience of other new entrants (e.g. Youwin) my hopes are far from high but they seem to have a pretty comprehensive selection of Asian handicap markets which is a decent sign

fangee · 24-08-2013 01:25PM

carpothepunk wrote: »

Apologies, I thought you mentioned 3s earlier in the thread. Even worse again, best priced 12/5, you must make them an 11/8 shot or so to be getting involved. Again, whats your book?

And please don't make a silly comment about me. Aha.

You've heard of Aha but not Rumble ?

Sunshine bar on Bridge street mid 90's ? No ?

carpothepunk · 24-08-2013 01:28PM

The same sunshine bar that played host to Refused in 98, no? Please don't question me. ridiculous punxer than thou mentality.

The Prince of Burma appreciation thread

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