Liverpool FC Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread 2013/14

daithijjj · 17-08-2013 06:56AM

Morzadec wrote: »

A new CB would be nice, but I have to say I agree with these 2 posts. A huge amount of games are decided by our (in)efficiency in the final third, particularly during periods of early dominance. For example, you might look at home losses to Villa and WBA last season and think `poor defending', but those matches should never have even reached the stage that we should have been thinking about our defending.

Swapping in Willian in for Downing could make a HUGE difference.

I'm not sure if this was put up earlier, but this is a fairly balanced preview of our season, backed up with a few stats. It's an excellent, interesting article and I'd suggest giving it a read.

http://www.statsbomb.com/2013/08/epl-201314-season-preview-liverpool/

A Spurs fan sent it to me, and despite being quite inebriated tonight I think I managed a coherent response.

This is my reply to him and my general view for the season ahead and what will be key (in relation to that article) -

'They couldn’t do it directly, but replaced him with a number of players and the team improved overall' will possibly be even more relevant to Spurs' season to Liverpool's. A lot of unknown factors for you guys to some extent but if they click and you keep Bale you could get high up the table.

'My personal prediction is 6th and 68-70 points.' I would agree with that. I think we're 6th favourites but I also think we're well capable of passing 70 points (since Sturridge and Coutinho have been in our ppg has been over 70 pts, with a GD better than any other club in the league). The possibility of a few slip ups above us (which is definitely possible considering how unpredictable this season is) makes talk of 4th not outlandish. The big thing (and its touched on in the article) is the form of Sturridge and Coutinho. The sample size is small. If they keep up what they have done we will undoubtedly be in the race for 4th, but it is a small sample size and you only have to look at Jelavic and Papiss Cisse last season to see January signings who started well but then flopped. My prediction is that Coutinho will largely be very good with the odd off-form match, but Sturridge I'm slightly less sure of. I do think he's a very good player but I don't think he'll have the consistency to get anywhere near his goal per game record from last year.

The point about Miglonet I really hope comes to fruition and I think is a good point - but it's still somewhat a case of wait and see.

A lot of those 'crazy shots' they talk about are Suarez's doing. They don't show them on his highlight reel but he needs to cut them out.

Shot conversion; 'However this improvement was still not enough to pull them above the Premier League mean. To seriously challenge for the top 4, Liverpool are going to have to return a well above average conversion rate, this means improving from an all-box conversion of 0.135 to 0.15 or even 0.16' - This is probably the most important point and its been our problem for a long time. We had more shots than any other PL team last season. In terms of 'dominating' games (possession, shots, final third activity etc,,,) we match or better basically any of the teams in the league. However there is a mix of not creating the right type of chance and not being efficient in converting them which leaves us with way too many frustrating draws (or even losses) that should have been 3 points. Another signing in the front 3 (Willian?) could be vital to putting these teams to the sword and racking up points.

Finally, you know I love stats but with Liverpool some of them can be misleading. Why? Because in any of our games against non-top 6 sides we tend to either wither to a frustrating draw (or loss), or absolutely hammer them by a wide margin. You'll see a huge amount of goals scored last year, and also an impressive clean sheet tally. Taken alone they are impressive stats. Then you look at the points tally and think, what happened? The problem is putting it together at the right time and putting it together consistently. If you watch the match tomorrow (Liverpool vs Stoke) watch out mainly for the first 20-25 minutes. This tends to be when our matches against poor teams are decided. If we score in this period, we will likely win very comfortably and could rack up a 3 or 4 nil win. If we don't, it's anyone's game - Stoke will have survived the early onslaught, will feel confident and a sense of the inevitable will sink in to Liverpool´s team and crowd. At this stage a 0-0 would be a shrewd bet, though it's possible either team could nick it by one. Liverpool's main challenge this year will be not letting these type of matches fall to lottery, and to consistently capitalise on the inevitable dominance early on - or have the mentality and quality to know we can do it late. Because we generally have no problem 'outplaying' our opposition, but unfortunately that doesn't lead to a guaranteed 3 points. I feel another good signing along the front 3 is key to this.

So I think we could surprise a few this year who have become accustomed to us finishing around 7th. But there's definitely still some question marks there, and with the league being so competitive 4th is still going to be really difficult. But definitely possible.

The thing about it is though, that if this was actually the case then most teams would adopt a gung-ho Kevin Keegan type style when he was at Newcastle. Basically a 'we will score more than you' type strategy. In essence its a grand idea and great to watch but it's a bit behind the times and you literally give every opponent a chance.

Its much more difficult to score goals than keep them out. A few years back when United went 11 games without conceding it was largely this that won them the league tbh.

I suppose the point here is that you have to strike a balance. If you can improve the defence of your own goal then you dont need to score as many as you would if you only concentrated on improving in attack.

Another small point in conjunction with this would also be that in general it is a much cheaper exercise to improve your defence. Or it should be. We could probably buy a whole new pretty good back 4 for the money we would be paying for Willian.

Not saying we cant improve in front of goal either but the highlighted part reinforces my point i think. We shouldnt be in a situation where the game is 'anyone's' if we dont score on 25 mins. Perhaps if we were more solid in defence in general we would feel less panicked and erratic at the other end.

Kirby · 17-08-2013 07:27AM

daithijjj wrote: »

in general it is a much cheaper exercise to improve your defence. Or it should be. We could probably buy a whole new pretty good back 4 for the money we would be paying for Willian.

And that back four would be mediocre. 4 "pretty good" defenders for under 30 million? That's not happening. Ahsley Williams looks to be going for 12 million, Caulker just went for around that. Look What United paid for Jones and Smalling. What they paid a decade ago for Rio Ferdinand.

It's a myth that defenders cost less than forwards. If you want top class, you pay for it in any position. Look at what Thiago Silva went for....look at what Chelsea want Barca to pay for David Luiz. 35 million!

There might be ten or so midfielders and forwards who go for 50+ million. Ronaldo, Messi, Suarez, Rooney, Bale, Cavani Falcoa, Ibra, etc. No defenders there. But there are thousands of transfers every year and forwards frequently go for less money than defenders. You don't hold up the 1% as an example of something. You look at the vast, vast majority.

daithijjj · 17-08-2013 07:52AM

Kirby wrote: »

And that back four would be mediocre. 4 "pretty good" defenders for under 30 million? That's not happening. Ahsley Williams looks to be going for 12 million, Caulker just went for around that. Look What United paid for Jones and Smalling. What they paid a decade ago for Rio Ferdinand.

It's a myth that defenders cost less than forwards. If you want top class, you pay for it in any position. Look at what Thiago Silva went for....look at what Chelsea want Barca to pay for David Luiz. 35 million!

There might be ten or so midfielders and forwards who go for 50+ million. Ronaldo, Messi, Suarez, Rooney, Bale, Cavani Falcoa, Ibra, etc. No defenders there. But there are thousands of transfers every year and forwards frequently go for less money than defenders. You don't hold up the 1% as an example of something. You look at the vast, vast majority.

Well if you are going to pick out those particular names can i pick some of my own?.

Kompany, Monreal, Azpilicueta and Vertonghen were bought for 30-35m. Pretty 'mediocre' alright.

If we are gonna go back to around when Ferdinand was bought for 28m then why not bring up Hyypia for 3m?

Kirby · 17-08-2013 08:32AM

daithijjj wrote: »

Well if you are going to pick out those particular names can i pick some of my own?.

Kompany, Monreal, Azpilicueta and Vertonghen were bought for 30-35m. Pretty 'mediocre' alright.

If we are gonna go back to around when Ferdinand was bought for 28m then why not bring up Hyypia for 3m?

And of those four, Kompany would be the only one with universal acknowledgment that he's world class. The fans of Arsenal, Chelsea, and Spurs might argue for their men but most neutrals would take pause. And rightfully so.

I quite like Azpilicueta and he may end up being a top full back but he's not there yet and he certainly wasn't when he was purchased. Monreal? Really? He's at Arsenal 6 months and has played ten games for them. Is that little amount of time really a good indication? As a Liverpool fan, I would assume you would recognise one swallow doesn't make a summer. i.e Andy Carroll.

Yes, occasionally talent can be gotten cheaply. But again, you keep bringing up outliers and using them as proof of your point. The vast majority of players go for their value. The reason people remember the Michu's of the world is because it rarely happens.

So to reiterate my original point, defenders cost just as much as any other area of the pitch. If you want quality, you pay for it. People in here were talking about not even entertaining a bid for Agger unless it was north of 20 million earlier in the window. And they would be right to do so. And he's not even on top form recently. You would still want his worth if he was sold. The fact that he plays at the back shouldn't alter that factor.

Grayditch · 17-08-2013 08:36AM

Kirby wrote: »

And of those four, Kompany would be the only one with universal acknowledgment that he's world class.

But... They're far from mediocre.

Kirby · 17-08-2013 08:41AM

And what are they worth now? Probably a lot more than the 36 million it cost to buy them.

He's cherry picked those players in hindsight which is grand.....but if he was asked to pick 4 defenders that Liverpool could buy now instead of the roughly 25 million that willian would cost.....he would struggle.

And that was his original point. That Liverpool could buy 4 "pretty good" defenders for the Willian money. Personally? I think that's hugely optimistic.

Mister Gooey · 17-08-2013 08:42AM

By lunchtime we could be top of the Premiership...................

Kerrigooney · 17-08-2013 08:46AM

Mister Gooey wrote: »

By lunchtime we could be top of the Premiership...................

Or bottom :eek:

Kirby · 17-08-2013 08:48AM

Kerrigooney wrote: »

Or bottom :eek:

Seems I'm not the only one who remembers 3-0 West brom......

Mister Gooey · 17-08-2013 08:50AM

Kerrigooney wrote: »

Or bottom :eek:

Forgot that option

Grayditch · 17-08-2013 08:52AM

Kirby wrote: »

And that was his original point. That Liverpool could buy 4 "pretty good" defenders for the Willian money. Personally? I think that's hugely optimistic.

Ok, it felt like the goalposts were being shifted around in that exchange, but yeah, you'd be very lucky if two worked out that well from 4 for 35m.

daithijjj · 17-08-2013 08:58AM

Kirby wrote: »

And of those four, Kompany would be the only one with universal acknowledgment that he's world class. The fans of Arsenal, Chelsea, and Spurs might argue for their men but most neutrals would take pause. And rightfully so.

I quite like Azpilicueta and he may end up being a top full back but he's not there yet and he certainly wasn't when he was purchased. Monreal? Really? He's at Arsenal 6 months and has played ten games for them. Is that little amount of time really a good indication? As a Liverpool fan, I would assume you would recognise one swallow doesn't make a summer. i.e Andy Carroll.

Yes, occasionally talent can be gotten cheaply. But again, you keep bringing up outliers and using them as proof of your point. The vast majority of players go for their value. The reason people remember the Michu's of the world is because it rarely happens.

So to reiterate my original point, defenders cost just as much as any other area of the pitch. If you want quality, you pay for it. People in here were talking about not even entertaining a bid for Agger unless it was north of 20 million earlier in the window. And they would be right to do so. And he's not even on top form recently. You would still want his worth if he was sold. The fact that he plays at the back shouldn't alter that factor.

I never really mentioned 'world class', i only spoke about improving the defence of Liverpool and on reasonable money. People on here like a whinge about Enrique, or a whinge about Johnson's defending, all i set out to say here is that LFC can improve their defence a fair bit and not have to push out on big tagged fees. (Diame on a free would have given us more strength in midfield, its not about spending 20m on Alex Song for example). It's very possible to do, whereas at the other end its more difficult imo. A fair bit less than true 'world class' would improve us imo.

Monreal played football before Arsenal, silly point tbh, himself and Azpilicueta both came through Osasuna youth teams. You use lack of time in the EPL for one point and then back up another by using Michu?. That's double standards no?.

Its more than a bit ironic that you would pick out Agger there too. He cost less than any of the names i picked out to try emphasise my point.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 17-08-2013 09:07AM

Mister Gooey wrote: »

By lunchtime we could be top of the Premiership...................

It would mean taking more points in one go than we did from our first five matches last year...

Kirby · 17-08-2013 09:10AM

daithijjj wrote: »

I never really mentioned 'world class', i only spoke about improving the defence of Liverpool and on reasonable money. People on here like a whinge about Enrique, or a whinge about Johnson's defending, all i set out to say here is that LFC can improve their defence a fair bit and not have to push out on big tagged fees. (Diame on a free would have given us more strength in midfield, its not about spending 20m on Alex Song for example). It's very possible to do, whereas at the other end its more difficult imo. A fair bit less than true 'world class' would improve us imo.

Monreal played football before Arsenal, silly point tbh, himself and Azpilicueta both came through Osasuna youth teams. You use lack of time in the EPL for one point and then back up another by using Michu?. That's double standards no?.

Its more than a bit ironic that you would pick out Agger there too. He cost less than any of the names i picked out to try emphasise my point.

And it's more than a bit ironic that you brought up Diame! Check my history, I screamed and shouted in here at the time that he was perfect for you when he was available on a free but nobody listened! :P

NukaCola · 17-08-2013 09:12AM

Grayditch wrote: »

Ok, it felt like the goalposts were being shifted around in that exchange, but yeah, you'd be very lucky if two worked out that well from 4 for 35m.

Really?

Alderweireld could have gone to Norwich for 7m and Medel went for around 11m. Two very decent players there, with 17m to spare for LB and RB.

Kirby · 17-08-2013 09:15AM

Yes but, those are risks surely? Not proven quantities.

I mean, from everything people say about Medel he is as likely to eat a phonebook and attack you with a flamingo's leg as he is to show up for training.

NukaCola · 17-08-2013 09:18AM

Kirby wrote: »

Yes but, those are risks surely? Not proven quantities.

I mean, from everything people say about Medel he is as likely to eat a phonebook and attack you with a flamingo's leg as he is to show up for training.

Sure buying 4 new defenders in one window is ridiculous anyway, but its very possible to get 4 decent defenders for 35m.

Kirby · 17-08-2013 09:20AM

NukaCola wrote: »

Sure buying 4 new defenders in one window is ridiculous anyway, but its very possible to get 4 decent defenders for 35m.

Willian wont cost that much anyway. Sure he only cost 30 million from Shaktar and Anzhi recognise they will take a hit on him.

hefferboi · 17-08-2013 09:20AM

Finally, what we've been waiting for since May. I'll be working so won't get to see the game live but I'm expecting a 5 nil win with an Inho hat trick and Enrique double

Any possible line ups? Haven't seen any bib theories yet?

Our year.

Speak Now · 17-08-2013 09:20AM

So after a summer of questionable maths and geography lessons we've finally got here.

DrumSteve · 17-08-2013 09:21AM

NukaCola wrote: »

Really?

Alderweireld could have gone to Norwich for 7m and Medel went for around 11m. Two very decent players there, with 17m to spare for LB and RB.

Id reckon their wages would be fairly high too.

NukaCola · 17-08-2013 09:21AM

Kirby wrote: »

Willian wont cost that much anyway. Sure he only cost 30 million from Shaktar and Anzhi recognise they will take a hit on him.

Unless someone else comes in for him....

internelligent · 17-08-2013 09:21AM

Very much so OT but is there a fantasyPL forum so I might have a chance of finishing mid-table

17-08-2013 09:21AM

12.45, where are you?

NukaCola · 17-08-2013 09:26AM

DrumSteve wrote: »

Id reckon their wages would be fairly high too.

I agree, but we are talking about a hypothetical situation where we are only looking at transfer fees

Devilman40k · 17-08-2013 09:28AM

The PL is back ....wooooooo, its been 92 days too long

daithijjj · 17-08-2013 09:29AM

Kirby wrote: »

And it's more than a bit ironic that you brought up Diame! Check my history, I screamed and shouted in here at the time that he was perfect for you when he was available on a free but nobody listened! :P

Forgive me for not knowing what you posted 12 months ago, that doesnt really matter to the points today though. As it happens i was more than happy with Diame on a free when it was on the cards.

In keeping with today's points, Agger is a perfect example of my point. Sure, you may not get a 100% success rate buying 4 defs for 30 odd million, is the implication here that there's more bang for buck on 4 forwards for 30+m?. Im gonna guess its looking for angles to arguments that were never brought up in the first place. Its pretty simple, LFC could use 30m far better on a DM/LB/CB (ALL 3). I have no issue with spending this money on Willian, in an ideal world id want Willian + those 3 and have a real go this year.

cj maxx · 17-08-2013 09:31AM

Mister Gooey wrote: »

By lunchtime we could be top of the Premiership...................

Thats the spirit

8-10 · 17-08-2013 09:33AM

Fully expect no surprises in the lineup today, Toure alongside Agger. Allen, Gerrard, Lucas in front of them and Aspas, Sturridge, Inho up front. Sterling and Henderson to get a run also for Allen and Sturridge later on and Pool winning 2-0.

jcsoulinger · 17-08-2013 09:34AM

Its possible to get 4 quality defenders for 36 million but they would not be proven pl performers so there is a risk involved.

Liverpool FC Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread 2013/14

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